The Weird and the Wonderful — Starting Pitchers Through Apr 30, 2023

Let’s start talking pitchers. It’s time to move on to the wackiness that is starting pitcher metrics. So who is part of the weird and the wonderful as April’s books have closed? Let’s find out.

Was the song “You Can’t Touch This” actually written to describe these pitchers’ pitches? Possible.

Seriously, what planet did Spencer Strider arrive from? It’s embarrassing to admit that I had never even heard of the guy when he debuted, but I guess it’s understandable considering he essentially skipped Triple-A and only recorded around 80 minor league innings before making the jump. Also, I don’t really follow prospects, so there’s that, too. Strider was already elite last year with his 15.5% SwStk%, en route to an absurd 38.3% strikeout rate. Silly us for thinking he’ll suffer some regression this year! Instead, he’s like “ehhhh, I’ll just throw my incredible slider even more, but don’t go expecting it to come, or I’ll throw my upper-90s heat right past you”.

This is nothing new for Jacob deGrom, who amazingly has posted a 20%+ SwStk% each season since 2020. Of course, he has yet even reach 100 innings in any of those seasons, and having just landed on the IL with elbow inflammation, it’s possible he fails to do so again this year.

Interesting that Shane McClanahan’s SwStk% has surged even higher, but his strikeout rate has barely moved versus last year. As long as his increased walk rate isn’t a warning sign, I’m obssessed.

These guys ain’t fooling anyone.

Cal Quantrill has consistently baffled the ERA estimators, but his ERA somehow matches both his SIERA and xERA on the nose finally. With a tumbling strikeout rate and a SwStk% that has declined every year since his 2019 debut, this looks like a pitcher that should be out of a job. Instead, he owns a 3.63 career ERA and likely has a long leash in the Guardians’ rotation. I didn’t want any part of him heading into the year, and I certainly don’t know.

Jake Woodford is likely to lose his rotation spot shortly, when Adam Wainwright returns.

Ummm, I don’t think starting is for Luis Cessa, who has spent most of his career as a reliever. Now we know why. With a puny 8.1% strikeout rate, do the Reds really have no better options for their rotation?!

Dane Dunning hasn’t started a game this year, but just barely met my 20 innings pitched minimum filter, and will be taking over deGrom’s rotation spot. You would have expected a jump in SwStk% and strikeout rate as a reliever, but instead, both rates have collapsed. It’s been both his slider and changeup that have loss their whiff abilities. If he can’t induce whiffs as a reliever, why would you believe he suddenly will again as a starter? I’ve seen him picked up in several leagues as he moves into the rotation, but don’t by fooled by his 1.77 ERA. Obviously, a .197 BABIP and 0% HR/FB rate aren’t going to continue.

This is the lowest SwStk% and strikeout rate for Dustin May throughout his short career. Pretty crazy for a pitcher who averages in the high-90s with his fastball to generate so few whiffs. His best whiff pitch has only recorded a 9% SwStk%, meaning all of his pitches are in single digits. It certainly looked like he finally figured out how to turn his stuff into swings and misses in 2021 and 2022, but he’s right back to where he started. Oh, and he’s also lost his ground ball tendency, while his walk rate remains in double digits. His ERA isn’t staying below 4.00 for much longer unless he improves those skills in a hurry.

These pitchers have limited hard contact like kings.

Though he has yet to induce a pop-up, Max Fried has allowed just an 11.8% LD%, en route to a .269 BABIP. He’s one of the few elite pitchers without an elite strikeout rate, thanks to strong control and a ground ball tendency.

Ryan Feltner, a Rockies pitcher, on a Hard% leaderboard?! Yet, he has still posted a worse than league average .313 BABIP, so all that hard contact limiting hasn’t seemed to benefit him. Anyway, as a Rockies starter, and holding a single digit SwStk%, you don’t want to risk his presence on your active roster.

Justin Steele has parlayed his low hard% into a .239 BABIP, to go along with decent other skills. With his current skill set, I believe the RoS ERA projections for a sub-4.00 ERA, but that still is significantly worse than he’s performed so far.

Would I be wrong if I said that a hitter’s goal is to hit a pitch into play as hard as possible (assuming the launch angle, both horizontal and vertical, is ideal)? If that’s true, then these are hitters’ favorite pitchers to oppose.

Somehow, some way, Bryce Elder has managed a 2.17 ERA despite posting the highest Hard% among pitchers with at least 20 innings. Statcast accounts for this, which is why his xERA is all the way up at 5.02! I do think his skill set is decent enough, heavy on the grounders, and mediocre on the strikeouts and walks, but he’ll need to calm down the hard contact to prevent his BABIP from ballooning, and his ERA following along.

It’s surprising to find veteran Framber Valdez on this list, as he has posted a low 30% Hard% in each of the last two seasons. Given the quality of contact against, there’s a massive discrepancy between his SIERA and xERA, with a 3.13 mark from the former and 4.57 mark calculated by the latter. It’s a good thing he allows so few fly balls, or that current 21.1% HR/FB would really hurt!

Nick Pivetta has only posted a sub-.300 BABIP once in his career, but it’s interesting to see that he currently sports his lowest mark, despite the second highest Hard% of his career. His skills look the same as always, so that elusive sub-4.00 ERA may very well have to wait for another year.

Can you believe that Michael Kopech is already 27 years old?! It feels like forever ago that he was one of the top pitching prospects and overall prospects in baseball. Last year, he enjoyed some luck-driven success, but all that luck has reversed, as his BABIP and HR/FB rate have both spiked. His Hard% has risen dramatically, while he simply can’t find the strikeout stuff he showed in the minors, and that made him a top prospect. As an extreme fly ball pitcher, it’s also no good to be walking a double digit rate of batters. There’s too much here to fix to expect a true breakout in the near future.