I remember once remarking that Bud Norris had signed a deal with the devil.

In his first major league start in 2009, Norris struck out Albert Pujols. A lot of folks could go home happy based purely on that outcome. But Norris got greedy and had a no hitter through 6 IP against a very good Cardinals lineup that ultimately won the Central division. He won that game, going 7 IP, giving up just 2 hits and striking out 5.

Since then, he’s been a pretty mixed bag of big strikeout numbers along with big walks, home runs and an unfortunately concomitant ERA and WHIP. He has shown flashes of ace material followed by stretches of unadulterated awfulness. As Zach so aptly put it in the NL SP Rankings, “If you need strikeouts, Bud Norris is your man. If you need below average production in every other category, Bud Norris is still your man.”

But can Norris possibly help your fantasy team on the cheap?

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Like any of the other positions, the top 5 NL starting pitchers are considered the no-brainers in the world of fantasy.  They’ll cost you a high draft choice or big auction dollars, but in return, you should be getting high end production that anchors your staff all year.  Personally, I don’t really subscribe to the theory that you need an ace to succeed, particularly in mixed leagues, and feel that you can build a competitive rotation without the big up-front spending.  But for those that do, here’s a look at our top 5 with, perhaps, a few warnings to heed. Read the rest of this entry »

Earlier this morning, Zach Sanders unveiled the RotoGraphs staff’s NL starting pitcher rankings. The bottom half of those rankings consist of a mix of mediocre veterans, youngsters without a guaranteed spot in the rotation and rookies that fantasy owners are typically advised to avoid, regardless of that pitcher’s skill set. One of the most intriguing names in that bottom tier is Mike Minor.

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All offseason long, we here at RotoGraphs have been polling each other and coming out with final rankings for each position. Today I will introduce pitchers currently starting in the National League, also known as a group of terrible hitters.

The Wainwright Memorial Tier
Roy Halladay
Cliff Lee
Tim Lincecum
Josh Johnson

Roy Halladay was the first pitcher on each of the seven ballots collected, but it was a mixed bag after that. I have to say, it feels weird to see two teammates atop rankings of any sort; unless, of course, you’re a Miami Heat fan. Lincecum actually ranked 2nd on five of the seven ballots, but two other votes weighed him down enough for Lee to step in and claim the number two spot on our big board. You really can’t go wrong with any of these guys, though. Read the rest of this entry »

Sporting a triangular scar on the back of his elbow, Edinson Volquez returned to a major league mound last July less than a year after he underwent Tommy John surgery. The righty once swapped from Texas to Cincinnati for Josh Hamilton went on to toss 62.2 regular-season frames, whiffing and walking scores of hitters while also inducing grounders like never before. Drafting Volquez carries risk — the 27-year-old’s innings will be watched, and control has never been his strong suit — but a modest drop in free passes mixed with stellar K and ground ball rates should make Volquez one of the better value picks on draft day.

Volquez’s post-surgery stuff was top-shelf. He got swinging strikes 13 percent of the time, best among starting pitchers throwing at least 60 innings and running circles around the 8.5 percent MLB average. According to Pitch F/X data from TexasLeaguers.com, Volquez boasted excellent whiff rates with his fastball (averaging between 93-94 MPH), changeup and curveball:

Fastball: 9 Whiff% (5-6% MLB average)
Changeup: 24.4 Whiff% (12.6% MLB average)
Curveball: 11.8 Whiff% (11.6% MLB average)

Volquez also got plenty of earth scorchers: his ground ball rate was 53.9 percent, far above the 44.5 percent clip he managed in the majors prior to 2010. Compared to past years, Volquez threw more curveballs in place of changeups. That breaking ball was beaten into the ground often: Volquez had a 70 percent GB% with his curve (49% MLB average). His fastball (50.5 GB%, 42% MLB average) also helped him wage a ground assault, while his change was league average with a 50 GB%.

Considering that Great American Ballpark punishes fly ball pitchers, inflating home run production 20 percent for lefty hitters compared to a neutral stadium and 33 percent for righty batters, Volquez’s uptick in grounders is a positive. And the sample size is large enough that we can put some stock in the worm burning increase — changes in ground ball rate become reliable rather quickly, after about 150 batters faced (Volquez faced 275 last season). Also helping matters is a strong Cincy infield. Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips and Scott Rolen are quality defenders, and the rangy Paul Janish looks like the favorite for shortstop starts over Edgar Renteria.

Of course, Volquez’s return wasn’t all roses. Always control-challenged (his career MLB walk rate is near 4.7 per nine), Volquez issued over five free passes per nine innings pitched. He located just 39.7 percent of his pitches within the strike zone, third-lowest among starters with 60+ IP and well below the 46.5 percent MLB average. As TexasLeaguers.com shows, only Volquez’s curve got strikes at an above-average clip:

Fastball: 59.7 Strike% (60-64% MLB average)
Changeup: 59.5 Strike% (60-61% MLB average)
Curveball 58.8 Strike% (58% MLB average)

Volquez isn’t likely to take the bump in 2011 and start showing exquisite control. But it’s not uncommon for post-TJ pitchers to struggle locating their pitches initially as they try to regain proprioception (knowing where the body is in space) and then improve their control the further out they get from surgery. Volquez’s month-by-month splits paint the picture of a pitcher gradually improving his location:

July: 35.5 Zone%
August: 37.0 Zone%
September/October: 45.6 Zone%

For 2011, two of the three big projection systems predict a sub-four ERA for Volquez:

ZiPS: 108 IP, 9.6 K/9, 4.6 BB/9, 0.9 HR/9, 3.66 ERA
PECOTA: 134 IP, 8.8 K/9, 4.4 BB/9, 1 HR/9, 3.93 ERA
Oliver: 106 IP, 8.7 K/9, 4.4 BB/9, 1 HR/9, 4.14 ERA

Drafting Edinson Volquez is a gamble. He’s going to walk people. And he’s not a sure bet to log a full starter’s workload, given that 2011 will be his first full year back from Tommy John and that the Reds have seven or eight legitimate rotation options. But he’s not going to cost a prime pick (MockDraftCentral has his ADP at #74 among starters and #262 overall), and he’s the sort of upside play who can be the difference between winning and losing a league title. Take a chance on Edinson — his punch outs and grounders will make you glad you did.

Since the summer of 2008, righty Daniel Hudson has navigated his way from fifth-round draft pick to ace of the Arizona Diamondbacks’ staff (though Ian Kennedy might quibble with that designation). Granted, in a post-Dan Haren rotation that may include the likes of Joe Saunders, Zach Duke and Armando Galarraga, that’s like saying "fastest Molina brother" or "smartest Kardashian." But after the D-Backs acquired Hudson from the White Sox at last year's trade deadline, the Old Dominion product dominated.

Entering 2011, Hudson has fantasy helium — according to MockDraftCentral, he ranks 34th among starting pitchers and 130th overall in Average Draft Position (ADP), placing him alongside pitchers such as Wandy Rodriguez, Brandon Morrow, Ricky Romero and Brett Anderson. How good can Hudson be? Let’s break it down.

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The first three slots in the Cincinnati Reds’ rotation are set — Johnny Cueto’s locked up long-term, Bronson Arroyo will keep on strumming Fenders and tossing benders after getting his own contract extension, and Edinson Volquez looks to polish his post-Tommy John stuff in front of paying crowds once his visa situation allows him to do so. But who will fill the fourth and fifth spots for the defending NL Central champs? Here’s a quick rundown of the candidates (listed in alphabetical order), along with their 2011 projections from Oliver, PECOTA and ZiPS.

Homer Bailey

Oliver: 7.2 K/9, 3.6 BB/9, 1 HR/9, 4.61 ERA
PECOTA: 7.2 K/9, 3.8 BB/9, 1.1 HR/9, 4.54 ERA
ZiPS: 7.2 K/9, 3.7 BB/9, 1 HR/9, 4.47 ERA

Bailey, a former top 10 prospect who took some beatings as a 21 and 22 year-old breaking into the majors, made considerable progress on the mound last season. The difference between his 2009 and 2010 ERAs was minuscule — 4.53 in ’09, and 4.46 in ’10 — but his xFIP, based on whiffs, walks and a normalized home run per fly ball rate, improved from 4.58 to 3.91. Bailey upped his K rate from 6.83 per nine to 8.26, and he pared his free passes from 4.13 per nine to 3.3.

That whiff rate may come down some this year — his swinging strike rate last season was just average (8.4 percent), and his contact rate (81.8%) was actually a percentage point above the big league norm. Plus, Bailey does come with durability concerns. He missed nearly three months last season with shoulder inflammation, from late May to mid-August. Out of minor league options, Bailey looks to be the favorite for the fourth rotation spot. Maybe he’ll never be a phenom, but he’s capable of posting an ERA better than the league average if he can avoid further injury woes.

Aroldis Chapman

Oliver (as RP): 9.3 K/9, 5.4 BB/9, 1.1 HR/9, 4.91 ERA
PECOTA: 10.8 K/9, 4.4 BB/9, 0.8 HR/9, 3.36 ERA
ZiPS (split role): 10.6 K/9, 5.8 BB/9, 1 HR/9, 4.00 ERA

By all accounts, Chapman is headed to the bullpen to start the season. As the above projections suggest, the Cuban’s triple-digit heat will elicit lots of late swings; hitters might just want to plaster their bats on their shoulders and hope for ball four. Chapman made 13 starts and 25 relief appearances at AAA Louisville last year, punching out 11.6 per nine while walking nearly five, and then averaged nearly 100 MPH with his fastball out of the Reds pen while throwing the fastest recorded pitch in MLB history.

The 23-year-old lefty won’t figure into the back-of-the-rotation conversation without a change of heart by management, but he’s plenty capable of pushing incumbent closer Francisco Cordero aside. Cordero’s K rate has fallen four years running, a period during which his xFIP has climbed from 2.82 to 4.53.

Mike Leake

Oliver: 6.1 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 0.9 HR/9, 4.08 ERA
PECOTA: 5.9 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 1.2 HR/9, 4.81 ERA
ZiPS: 5.8 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 1.1 HR/9, 4.34 ERA

The eighth overall pick in the ’09 draft out of Arizona state, Leaked leaped right to the majors and proved to be a quality, if not terribly exciting, starting option. Throwing everything but a Ephus — two-seamers, sliders, curves, cutters, changeups — Leake had 5.92 K/9, 3.19 BB/9, a 50.2% ground ball rate and a 4.31 xFIP. His rookie season did end on a dour note, as he was placed on the DL in late August with shoulder fatigue. Leake didn’t throw another pitch after that, as Cincinnati played it safe and shut him down for the rest of the year.

Leake currently appears to be the sixth man for the Reds, behind Bailey and Wood, and GM Walt Jocketty said in February that Leake could end up in the bullpen rather than going to the minors to keep stretched out if he loses out on a rotation spot. Of course, no team’s one-through-five ends up staying perfectly healthy and productive — Leake is one sore elbow or shoulder away from regular rotation turns. He’s not going to miss many bats, but Leake’s ground ball tendencies aid him in a park where warning track flys often turn into round-trippers.

Sam LeCure

Oliver: 6.6 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 1.3 HR/9, 5.12 ERA
PECOTA: 6.7 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 1.3 HR/9, 4.86 ERA
ZiPS: 6.6 K/9, 3.7 BB/9, 1.3 HR/9, 5.00 ERA

LeCure, a 26-year-old with a four-pitch mix (high-80s fastball, upper-70s slider, low-70s curve, and a low-80s change), faces the longest odds of any pitcher listed here. In 48 MLB innings pitched last year, divided between starting and relief, LeCure had 6.94 K/9, 4.69 BB/9 and a 4.86 xFIP. The former Longhorn has sharper control of his limited stuff than that sample suggests, but his career minor league walk rate of three per nine is more decent than Maddux-esque.

LeCure did generate more grounders last season (54% at AAA, 45.6% with the Reds). Considering that Great American Ballpark increases home run production by 20 percent for left-handed hitters and 33 percent for righties, he’ll need to retain those gains to be much more than replacement-level flotsam.

Matt Maloney

Oliver: 6.4 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 1.2 HR/9, 4.43 ERA
PECOTA: 6.8 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, 1.2 HR/9, 4.26 ERA
ZiPS: 6.5 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 1.2 HR/9, 4.47 ERA

As a lefty who relies on pinpoint control to compensate for a fastball that needs a strong backwind to reach the upper-80s on the gun, Maloney’s game is the antithesis of Chapman’s pure power. That said, the former Phillies prospect has 7.9 K/9, 2 BB/9, and 0.7 HR/9 in well over 400 innings at the Triple-A level. Maloney has performed adequately in 61.1 MLB innings divided between starting and relief over the past two years, with about six whiffs per nine innings, 1.9 BB/9 and a 4.70 xFIP. On a lot of teams, he’d have a good shot at pulling down a rotation spot. In Cincy, however, he’s a long shot looking to secure a bullpen spot for Opening Day.

All three projection systems have Maloney coughing up ample home runs, and dingers may well be a problem for the fly ball-centric 27-year-old. According to First Inning, Maloney’s ground ball rates have ranged from 40 to 45% at AAA, and he has induced grounders about 35% of the time in the big leagues. Maloney needs his exquisite control to limit multi-run long-ball damage.

Travis Wood

Oliver: 6.9 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 0.9 HR/9, 3.87 ERA
PECOTA: 6.9 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 1 HR/9, 4.06 ERA
ZiPS: 7.4 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 0.9 HR/9, 3.64 ERA

A lithe left-hander who originally got scouts all hot under the polo shirt collar as high schooler throwing 95 MPH, Wood no longer touches that velocity but nonetheless looks like a good fantasy option poised to win the fifth starter’s gig. After posting rates of 8.9 K/9, 2.2 BB/9 and a 3.23 FIP in an even 100 AAA frames, Wood got the major league call in July. While he averaged about 90 MPH with his gas, Wood’s cutter, change and curve enticed batters to expand their zones — his 32.8 outside swing percentage was well above the 29.3% MLB average. In 102.2 innings with the Reds, Wood struck out 7.54 hitters per nine innings and walked just 2.28 per nine on his way to a 3.51 ERA.

I said that Wood is a good fantasy option, but whether he’s a good value is another question. Wood’s an extreme fly ball pitcher (30.5 GB% in the majors), and his home run per fly ball rate (6.3%) figures to rise. So will his BABIP (.259 last year), though perhaps less than most given those aforementioned flyballing ways (fly balls have a lower BABIP than grounders). If you draft Wood expecting an ERA somewhere in the neighborhood of four, you won’t be disappointed. Get caught up in his near no-no and mid-threes ERA, and you might end up pulling the trigger while better options are still on the board.

I haven’t always felt this way, but auctions are pretty sweet. How often does someone have to grab that sleeper from you just because of the vagaries of the snake draft before you start thinking about auctions anyway? How great is it to decide a player is worth something, plus or minus, and then go toe to toe with someone that has a similar evaluation of that player? It’s an exciting process, and it really makes you put your player valuation money where your mouth is.

Adding keeper functionality to an auction league just makes even more sense. As I migrated from snake to auction in my fantasy preferences, I’ve also migrated to keeper leagues. Aren’t we trying to play at being GMs here? In a way, we must be approximating the thrill of running a team, and a keeper auction league is probably the closest you can get without hitting the sim leagues – which are cool, but I’d rather leave defense out. It’s just so tough to evaluate.

In any case, as the title indicates, my personal fantasy baseball trends have led me to ottoneu, the new fantasy game at FanGraphs. I hope you enjoy the game as much as I will. Let’s play another “Trade Tree” game, shall we? This seemed popular the first time around. It’s pretty sweet that all of these trades would show up on the respective player pages in your league, and it does a good job of illustrating how ottoneu game play goes.

For a free year (one team) of ottoneu fantasy, argue who got the most value for their Dan Haren in ottoneu one, the flagship league of the game.

Team 1: Traded $19 Haren during the 2009 season for $7 Joba Chamberlain, $5 Dexter Fowler and $5 Justin Smoak

Team 2: Traded $21 Haren before the 2010 season with $19 Adam Jones for $5 Shin-Soo Choo

Team 3: Traded $23 Haren before the 2011 season for $12 Clay Buchholz, $6 Martin Prado and $4 Jason Kipnis

*Before you knock any team too harshly, remember to appreciate the context in which these trades took place. I know you don’t have team data, but look at the year at least. Also, this is for 4×4 ottoneu (OBP, SLG, HR, R / ERA, WHIP, K, HR/9)

The Rangers made a pretty bold move last year when they moved long-time reliever and sometimes closer C.J. Wilson into the rotation, and he rewarded them with 4.4 WAR season and four pretty good playoff starts. If you’re reading this site, then you’re well aware that even an average big league starter is more valuable than a great reliever if he’s giving you 180 IP, but teams have been slow to admit this. The Tigers are going to try to replicate the Rangers’ and Wilson’s success in 2011 by turning one of their own lefty relievers into a starter, that being Phil Coke.

There are similarities (besides the obvious: being left-handed, late-20’s at the time of the switch, yadda yadda yadda) and differences between the two, so let’s explore them before figuring out if Coke is rosterable in a standard league.

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Derek Holland fell off of prospect lists in 2009 by pitching 138+ innings, but he’s still unproven and holds the excitement of unfulfilled potential. So far, the excuse has been the crowded house that has been the Rangers rotation, but this year, the Cliff-Lee-less front five could use a boost, especially from an exciting lefty with a power fastball and upside to boot. Could this be the year he finally busts out?

First, the rotation looks crowded again, but once you get past the top three, there are many question marks. Scott Feldman hasn’t put up a league-average FIP since his 41 1/3 relief innings in 2006, and Eric Hurley has 24 2/3 innings of poor major league work and much less potential on his resume. Brandon Webb is new in town, but given his injury situation, it’s not a stretch to say that a combination of Webb and Feldman might get the Rangers one more starter in total.

Which, of course, leaves a spot for Holland. Last year he was already above league average (4.02 FIP), so he’ll be a real-life boon to their rotation. His 8.48 K/9 is already impressive, and should he repeat the statistics he showed last year, he will be interesting in deeper leagues. How much can he do beyond?

Coming up through the minor league system, there was talk of Holland having a plus-plus fastball, but so far his linear weights on the pitch have been poor and his velocity has been closer to 92 than the mid-90s he showed. One thing that Holland could conceivably improve is his groundball rate. These things might even be related. Look at his heat maps for the fastball.

It looks like Holland tends to pitch up in the zone, which can lead to more fly balls. Fly balls in Texas are no good. It looks like this trend has held steady for Holland so far, which could mean that there’s something about his fastball that works better up in the zone, or that he’s entrenched. If not, he could add more groundballs with lower fastballs pretty easily.

Two other things bode well for Holland. So far, his walk rate in the majors (3.27) and last year (3.77) have only been okay. Not terrible, but okay. In the minor leagues, Holland routinely put up sub-three walk rates. If he can bring that walk rate back down, he could approach a three-to-one K/BB ratio, which is excellent.

The other piece of good news is that his changeup made progress last year, at least when judged by linear weights. It went from a strong negative to a scratch pitch. Given that he has a good fastball and slider, developing that changeup is tantamount to his success. He’s still throwing it 10% of the time, and if it’s a scratch-or-better pitch, then he’s got a strong mix – and he’s a lefty. That’s a combination that could lead to some fantasy success, so consider Holland late in your drafts when you are looking for upside for your bench in mixed leagues.