NL Starting Pitchers: Scouting the Top 5

Like any of the other positions, the top 5 NL starting pitchers are considered the no-brainers in the world of fantasy.  They’ll cost you a high draft choice or big auction dollars, but in return, you should be getting high end production that anchors your staff all year.  Personally, I don’t really subscribe to the theory that you need an ace to succeed, particularly in mixed leagues, and feel that you can build a competitive rotation without the big up-front spending.  But for those that do, here’s a look at our top 5 with, perhaps, a few warnings to heed.

The Doc: Roy Halladay

Drafting Halladay is like sitting in front of a roaring fire, wrapped up in a warm blanket and being handed a hot mug of cocoa.  Pure comfort and ease.  Sure, at some point, we may start to see a decline, but I highly doubt this is the year to be concerned.  Over the last 3 seasons, we’ve seen his K/9 increase, his BB/9 decrease, and there’s just no sign of him slowing down.  Yes, the HR/FB ratio has been on the rise over the last 3 seasons, but given the rest of his totals, I’m willing to let it slide.  In all honesty, the only things that seem to be working against him are his age and the mileage on his arm, but based on his consistent levels of performance, that’s not nearly enough to knock him off the pedestal from which he’s earned the right to sit upon.  Depending on how deep your league is, expect Halladay to be gone no later than the 14 or 15th pick in your draft.

The Unheralded:  Cliff Lee

I don’t know what it’s like in your leagues, but in my primary mixed, keeper league, Lee has become the Rodney Dangerfield of starters.  No respect.  None at all.  The guy wins a Cy Young and over the last 3 seasons averages 16 wins, a 2.94 ERA, and a ridiculous 1.26 BB/9 and I still hear people talking about his miserable 2007.  Maybe it’s because he’s been on 4 different teams in the last 2 years, I don’t know, but those that still don’t believe and pass on him are going to miss out…again.  The ERA and FIP over the last 3 years have been extremely close and there’s nothing to suggest by his “average” BABIP that he’s been lucky either.  The guy’s got talent, pure and simple.  And if you look at his numbers for the Phillies in 2009 (in-season and post-season) — 11 wins, 2.78 ERA, 1.03 WHIP with 107 Ks in 120 innings — and you’ll see that you’ve got plenty to be excited about this season too.  Recent mixed ADP Rankings have him going around the 38th pick, on average, so if you’ve got only 12 teams in your league, expect to grab him near the end of the 3rd round or start of the 4th.

The Freak:  Tim Lincecum

Two Cy Young awards and a World Series ring make for some nice hardware to acquire in one’s first 3 seasons in the Major Leagues.  You would think that plus the fact that he’s led the NL in strikeouts each year over that time would have vaulted him to number one status, but there are some concerns.  First, there’s the statistical drop off we witnessed last season.  His ERA, WHIP, BB/9, HR/FB, and his FIP all took significant increases, while his strikeouts, his K/9 and even his innings pitched went down.  He wasn’t going as deep into games and suddenly the un-hittable became, well, hittable.  And despite the innings reduction in-season last year, Lincecum still added almost 40 innings of post-season work.  With the minor elbow scare from last year, the number of innings thrown over the last 3 seasons, and the amount of torque in the diminutive righty’s windup, one has to be concerned as to how long he’ll be able to keep it up.  He claims that his increased throwing program in the off season will help, but I can’t help but remain cautious when a player will cost me in a draft as much as Lincecum will cost.

The Risk:  Josh Johnson

As amazingly talented a pitcher as Johnson is, I can’t help but constantly be reminded of Adam Wainwright who would have been in this article had it not been for the shredded ligament in his elbow.  With Johnson comes great potential, but also great risk.  On one hand, you’ve got outstanding talent, high strikeout rates, and low ratios and on the other is 2007 Tommy John surgery with back and shoulder issues shutting down the end of his 2010.  We’ve got him listed in our Top 5 based on a full season of health, but personally, with the depth you’ll find at starting pitching, I have a hard time recommending the risk.  And I’m not the only one as recent ADP rankings show him going somewhere around the 72nd pick, sometimes as low as 85th, with plenty of other NL starters going ahead of him.  At full health, though, you could be looking at 200+ Ks, a sub-3.00 ERA, and other ratios covered in fantasy drool.  It’s just a matter of how much that potential is worth to you in the grand scheme of things.

The Upstart:  Clayton Kershaw

His first 3 years in the majors may not have been as dazzling as Lincecum’s, but the growth we’ve seen in Kershaw gives promise to even better days ahead.  The Dodgers have been extremely careful as to how they’ve handled their young lefty and with the gradual increase in innings from year to year, the concerns of blowing out his arm too quickly become somewhat less.  Last season was the first year he threw over 200 innings, and the results were just as strong as the year before.  The changes in some of his ratios were insignificant in the grand scheme of things, so I’m not going to sit and quibble over a 0.4 decrease in things like K/9 or a 1.7% increase in HR/FB.  Bottom line is that he kept his ERA under 3.00, he had more than a K per inning for the season and his FIP was not much higher than his ERA.  He had an outstanding .275 BABIP and all signs point towards similar totals this year and beyond.  While his ceiling may not be as high as either Johnson’s or Lincecum’s, he just might be a steadier and safer pick than both of them.