No, not Thanksgiving dinner leftovers. Two weeks ago for my last keeper rankings post, I wasn’t sure if tier five would be the final tier. Well, I have decided, it was. So now it is time to take a look at those that just made the cut, or the leftovers, if you will. To refresh your memory…
Justin Verlander had himself a fine season, you may have heard. The first pitcher to win both the MVP and the Cy in about a quarter-century, he combined superlative peripherals with just a little bit of luck and the backing of a strong team to produce a season for the ages. He probably won his owners many a fantasy league. From personal experience, each team of mine that featured the Tigers’ ace won its’ league this year.
That’s all fine and good, but you shouldn’t draft Verlander next year. Focus instead on finding the next Verlander.
It looks like moving relievers into the rotation has been the trend of the off-season. Last week, I tried to forecast White Sox pitcher Chris Sale‘s performance as a starter next season. With the news that the Rangers have signed Joe Nathan to be their closer, incumbent closer Neftali Feliz becomes the flavor of the day in reliever-turned-starter land. Will his transition go as smoothly as rotation-mate C.J. Wilson’s did, who made the switch in 2010, or will he wilt under the Texas sun with the heavier workload?
In 2011, Jonathan Papelbon was entering the last year of his contract with the Boston Red Sox without the two sides managing to work out an extension to keep him as closer for the future. It wasn’t cemented that Papelbon was gone, but there was a good deal of speculation that Daniel Bard was the heir apparent to the fireman’s role as he was coming off a dominant 2010 campaign.
When Papelbon recently signed with the Philadelphia Phillies, many assumed that the Boston brass would summarily anoint Bard as closer and move on to more pressing issues in the starting rotation and trying to find a right fielder, but there was no such announcement. In fact, when Daniel Bard’s name was brought up, it was mentioned that while he may be a candidate for the closer role, he might also stay in his familiar set-up job, or they just might try him out as a starter.
The starting role possibility was news to me, and and in looking at his minor league starts, it turns out there’s a pretty good reason why. Daniel Bard was a terrible minor league starting pitcher.
For the first three seasons of his career, Wandy Rodriguez was nothing more than your average, run-of-the-mill starting pitcher. He had an ERA that ranged from 4.58 to 5.64, a HR/FB rate perpetually above 10%, his walk rate was too high and his strikeout rate was too low. There was very little worthwhile contribution from him to the fantasy baseball community. But then Wandy turned a corner in his fourth full season and from there, began to blossom into a pitcher of value. Sure, he had his explosive moments on the hill, but overall, he settled in nicely as one of the Astros more consistent and reliable starters. His ERA stayed below 4.00, the home runs came down, and he started posting a K/9 that was steadily just above 8.00 each season. However, last season there was regression across the board save for the ERA and suddenly the numbers were starting to look horribly similar to his early years, including a horrific 13.0% HR/FB rate. Now, with the Astros moving to the American League West soon, the question is whether or not Wandy can right the ship or have we seen the best that he has to offer?
It was not so very long ago that Chien-Ming Wang was a Cy Young candidate and even received a handful of MVP votes. It’s even less time ago that his ankle injury — sustained while running the bases in Houston — created an outcry, or at least a tempest in a teapot, about AL pitchers having to hit in interleague play. Between that point, June 15, 2008, and July 29, 2011, Wang threw just 42 innings and looked pretty rotten doing it. He lost all of 2010 and the first few months of 2011 to shoulder surgery, and while he didn’t look like much of a world-beater when he returned, his reemergence from long absence has piqued my interest. Read the rest of this entry »
Before I begin, please allow me to congratulate both Craig Kimbrel and Jeremy Hellickson for winning their respective league’s 2011 Rookie of the Year awards. It was the first time since 1981 when Dave Righetti (NYY- AL) and Fernando Valenzuela (LAD- NL) won that each league’s award went to a pitcher in the same season. Both seemed deserving of such esteemed honors, although one brings on a greater debate than the other. Kimbrel, with a record 46 saves by a rookie, finished with a 2.10 ERA, a 1.04 WHIP, and an eye-popping 127 strikeouts in 77 innings of work. Hellickson, starter of 29 games and winner of 13, finished the season with a 2.95 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP and notched 117 Ks in a rookie-leading 189 innings. I could talk about peripherals and who was more deserving and what not, but that’s neither here nor there right now. What is important is how winning this award affects the value of each player in 2012 fantasy baseball drafts. All too often, players are drafted based on name and hype and winning the Rookie of the Year award certainly helps build both. So before you go breaking the bank to acquire this year’s crop, allow me to point out that you should probably keep your expectations low.
We are getting near the end of the AL pitcher keeper rankings and this may or may not be the last tier. These are basically the last couple of guys I would truly be satisfied keeping on my team. Everyone else is just blah and no one really stands out from the crowd. To recap…
Tier 1:
Justin Verlander
CC Sabathia
Felix Hernandez
Jon Lester
Tier 2:
Jered Weaver
Dan Haren
Josh Beckett
David Price
James Shields
Tier 3:
Michael Pineda
Max Scherzer
C.J. Wilson
Brandon Morrow
Tier 4:
Matt Moore
Ricky Romero
Ubaldo Jimenez
Gio Gonzalez
Derek Holland
And off we go…
Tier 5:
On the surface, Hellickson had a fantastic rookie season, posting a 2.95 ERA over 189 innings. The performance even resulted in Rookie of the Year honors. However, as has been discussed quite a bit over the past month, there are a lot of questions about Hell Boy next season. You are all well aware by now about the huge discrepancy between his xFIP/SIERA marks and his ERA. That would normally be a major for me, which is why many pitchers with strong ERAs this year won’t sniff these rankings. However, I am quite confident his skills will improve enough to the point that his ERA and ERA estimator metrics will converge.
No, the strikeout rate is not going to jump near a batter per inning or above, where it sat during his minor league career. The change-up problem is very real and not going to go away overnight. However, his called strike percentage should still rise a bit next year and all he needs to do is keep his SwStk% stable to enjoy a K/9 surge. At the very least, I think his strikeout rate gets above 7.0, which will not only increase his fantasy value given his contributions in that category, but will push his xFIP/SIERA marks down to meet his ERA. I expect him to finish the year somewhere around a 3.75 ERA, which will allow him to maintain decent fantasy value, but this time backed up by his peripherals.
I was a big Masterson fan back in 2010, but the talk of him being unable to succeed versus lefties apparently subconsciously influenced my opinion. So naturally after I lose my optimism, he goes out and performs in 2011 like I expected in 2010. This time, he was much improved versus lefties, as he cut his walk rate in half, while maintaining the rest of his skill set against them. He also enjoyed better luck on balls in play and in stranding runners, and even managed to post a below average HR/FB ratio.
His SwStk% and strikeout rate did decline, which is a concern, especially since he threw his fastball about 84% of the time. Whether his slider usage rebounds next year is anyone’s guess, but it does offer the potential for strikeout rate upside. In addition, since he remains a two-pitch pitcher, any talk of him developing a change-up could be huge news. Though this would likely knock his stellar ground ball rate down a notch, it would certainly increase his punch outs and lead to even greater fantasy value.
On Monday, Tampa’s Jeremy Hellickson and Atlanta’s Craig Kimbrel took home Rookie of the Year honors in the AL and NL, respectively. Both Hell Boy and Kimbrel (this fellow needs a menacing, pee-your-pants-upon-hearing-it nickname) seemingly have very bright futures ahead of them. But winning ROTY doesn’t always mean that a player is destined for long-term stardom (Jason Jennings and Angel Berroa say hi!)
Today, I want to hear you opinions on a different question: which rookie pitcher (minimum 50 IP in 2011) has the most long-term value? In other words, if you could only have one rookie hurler, which would you choose? Below I’ve listed 15 rookie pitchers who are likely to garner consideration, as well as a quick case for and case against choosing each rookie.
Hot off the presses, White Sox GM Kenny Williams has announced that Chris Sale, who has not started a game since college, will be in their starting rotation next season. So what might we expect from the lanky (I believe this word was invented with Sale in mind) southpaw?