Before I begin, please allow me to congratulate both Craig Kimbrel and Jeremy Hellickson for winning their respective league’s 2011 Rookie of the Year awards.  It was the first time since 1981 when Dave Righetti (NYY- AL) and Fernando Valenzuela (LAD- NL) won that each league’s award went to a pitcher in the same season.  Both seemed deserving of such esteemed honors, although one brings on a greater debate than the other.  Kimbrel, with a record 46 saves by a rookie, finished with a 2.10 ERA, a 1.04 WHIP, and an eye-popping 127 strikeouts in 77 innings of work.  Hellickson, starter of 29 games and winner of 13, finished the season with a 2.95 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP and notched 117 Ks in a rookie-leading 189 innings.  I could talk about peripherals and who was more deserving and what not, but that’s neither here nor there right now.  What is important is how winning this award affects the value of each player in 2012 fantasy baseball drafts.   All too often, players are drafted based on name and hype and winning the Rookie of the Year award certainly helps build both.  So before you go breaking the bank to acquire this year’s crop, allow me to point out that you should probably keep your expectations low.

Read the rest of this entry »

We are getting near the end of the AL pitcher keeper rankings and this may or may not be the last tier. These are basically the last couple of guys I would truly be satisfied keeping on my team. Everyone else is just blah and no one really stands out from the crowd. To recap…

Tier 1:
Justin Verlander
CC Sabathia
Felix Hernandez
Jon Lester

Tier 2:
Jered Weaver
Dan Haren
Josh Beckett
David Price
James Shields

Tier 3:
Michael Pineda
Max Scherzer
C.J. Wilson
Brandon Morrow

Tier 4:
Matt Moore
Ricky Romero
Ubaldo Jimenez
Gio Gonzalez
Derek Holland

And off we go…

Tier 5:

Jeremy Hellickson

On the surface, Hellickson had a fantastic rookie season, posting a 2.95 ERA over 189 innings. The performance even resulted in Rookie of the Year honors. However, as has been discussed quite a bit over the past month, there are a lot of questions about Hell Boy next season. You are all well aware by now about the huge discrepancy between his xFIP/SIERA marks and his ERA. That would normally be a major for me, which is why many pitchers with strong ERAs this year won’t sniff these rankings. However, I am quite confident his skills will improve enough to the point that his ERA and ERA estimator metrics will converge.

No, the strikeout rate is not going to jump near a batter per inning or above, where it sat during his minor league career. The change-up problem is very real and not going to go away overnight. However, his called strike percentage should still rise a bit next year and all he needs to do is keep his SwStk% stable to enjoy a K/9 surge. At the very least, I think his strikeout rate gets above 7.0, which will not only increase his fantasy value given his contributions in that category, but will push his xFIP/SIERA marks down to meet his ERA. I expect him to finish the year somewhere around a 3.75 ERA, which will allow him to maintain decent fantasy value, but this time backed up by his peripherals.

Justin Masterson

I was a big Masterson fan back in 2010, but the talk of him being unable to succeed versus lefties apparently subconsciously influenced my opinion. So naturally after I lose my optimism, he goes out and performs in 2011 like I expected in 2010. This time, he was much improved versus lefties, as he cut his walk rate in half, while maintaining the rest of his skill set against them. He also enjoyed better luck on balls in play and in stranding runners, and even managed to post a below average HR/FB ratio.

His SwStk% and strikeout rate did decline, which is a concern, especially since he threw his fastball about 84% of the time. Whether his slider usage rebounds next year is anyone’s guess, but it does offer the potential for strikeout rate upside. In addition, since he remains a two-pitch pitcher, any talk of him developing a change-up could be huge news. Though this would likely knock his stellar ground ball rate down a notch, it would certainly increase his punch outs and lead to even greater fantasy value.

On Monday, Tampa’s Jeremy Hellickson and Atlanta’s Craig Kimbrel took home Rookie of the Year honors in the AL and NL, respectively. Both Hell Boy and Kimbrel (this fellow needs a menacing, pee-your-pants-upon-hearing-it nickname) seemingly have very bright futures ahead of them. But winning ROTY doesn’t always mean that a player is destined for long-term stardom (Jason Jennings and Angel Berroa say hi!)

Today, I want to hear you opinions on a different question: which rookie pitcher (minimum 50 IP in 2011) has the most long-term value? In other words, if you could only have one rookie hurler, which would you choose? Below I’ve listed 15 rookie pitchers who are likely to garner consideration, as well as a quick case for and case against choosing each rookie.

Read the rest of this entry »

Hot off the presses, White Sox GM Kenny Williams has announced that Chris Sale, who has not started a game since college, will be in their starting rotation next season. So what might we expect from the lanky (I believe this word was invented with Sale in mind) southpaw?

Read the rest of this entry »

I tend to get rather obsessed about starting pitchers, strikeouts, and predictability – three things that go together like Tracy Morgan, funny stuff, and sanity. What keeps me up at night, and what I find particularly unnerving are sizable, unexplained variations from year to year. Why did Jhoulys Chacin go from 9.04 strikeouts per nine innings pitched in 2010 to 6.96 in 2011? Why did Ricky Nolasco go from 8.39 K/9 to 6.47? Jered Weaver from 9.35 to 7.56? When obvious indicators of age or injury aren’t there, the resulting chaos has me reaching for torches and pitchforks.

Read the rest of this entry »

While most people remain fixated on the principle players of the deal that saw the San Francisco Giants trade left-hander Jonathan Sanchez to the Kansas City Royals for outfielder Melky Cabrera, seemingly lost in the shuffle was the news that Giants manager Bruce Bochy announced, shortly thereafter, that Barry Zito will be the team’s No. 5 starter in 2012.  “I’m not gonna hide from it,” Bochy said. “Barry Zito is our 5th starter next year.”  Sounds pretty official, huh?  There had been talk of a possible competition with Eric Surkamp, but Bochy quickly squashed any speculation and has apparently set his team’s rotation.  Any available free agent pitchers can cross the Giants off their wish list.  So now the question comes to us fantasy owners — is Zito even worth a look this season or is it a safer play to just bypass him altogether?

Read the rest of this entry »

This week we move onto tier four of the American League starting pitcher keeper rankings. This appears to be the last of the tiers comprised of pitchers who could still truly remain targets in mixed leagues. We also welcome our first rookie into the mix, which is always exciting. As a refresher, here is how the first three tiers went…

Tier 1:
Justin Verlander
CC Sabathia
Felix Hernandez
Jon Lester

Tier 2:
Jered Weaver
Dan Haren
Josh Beckett
David Price
James Shields

Tier 3:
Michael Pineda
Max Scherzer
C.J. Wilson
Brandon Morrow

Without further ado…

Tier 4:

Matt Moore

Many years ago, rookie pitchers were banned from my fantasy teams. Given the existence of TINSTAAPP and the unreliability of the young and inexperienced, it was relatively easy to avoid these pitchers in mixed leagues. However, I have seen the light and I now evaluate rookies on an individual basis and no different than any other pitcher. Moore is currently the top pitching prospect in baseball and looks to have a rotation spot with the Rays heading into 2012. Amazingly, the 23-year old lefty has never posted a K/9 below 11.5 at any minor league stop, or during his super short stint with Tampa Bay this season. His control has also been good, and it looks like he will be around league average in inducing ground balls.

He is not going to average nearly 96.0 miles per hour with his fastball as a starter all year, but I would guess he settles in between 93 and 94, which is still fantastic, and even more so for a lefty. Yes, it was only over 9.1 innings, but man that 14.2% SwStk% is ridiculous. That might have a little to do with the quality of his stuff in this early PITCHf/x look that finds that his fastball has a lot more movement than average, while his curve ball could be a lethal strikeout pitch. Obviously, don’t go crazy with your expectations, but any pitcher with this type of strikeout potential and history of punch out rates deserves all the hype he gets.

Ricky Romero

I am a fan of Romero and took an in-depth look at him last month. Pitchers who combine a good strikeout rate, decent enough control and induce tons of ground balls are the type I want on my fantasy team. Though I do think he has a bit of strikeout rate upside, a low-7.0 rate is essentially what pushed him into this fourth tier, rather than the third. His ERA is going to jump back into the mid-3.00’s next season as his luck runs out, but he should generate good fantasy value once again.

Ubaldo Jimenez

Jimenez was one of the toughest pitchers for me to rank. Of course, that is no surprise after I called him the head-scratcher of the year. I am not all too concerned about his inflated ERA. Most of that was just poor fortune. What does scare me is the huge drop in velocity. Falling from 96.1 miles per hour to 93.5 is a dramatic decline and not to be taken lightly. It killed his SwStk%, which fell below 8.9 for the first time ever and actually came well below the league average. In addition, the Indians infield defense is not supposed to be very good, though Jimenez’s GB% was at its lowest mark since 2007. There are lots of question marks here, but we know what he is capable of and so I could not possibly justify ranking him any lower. And since his missing velocity is a mystery, he certainly wasn’t going to be ranked any higher.

Gio Gonzalez

For the second year in a row, Gonzalez outperformed his SIERA and xFIP rather significantly. The ballpark probably has a bit to do with it, but I am still betting his true talent level is closer to these metrics than his actual ERA the past two seasons. His poor control means he will never help your WHIP and playing in front of a mediocre offense is going to limit his wins, even if he has won 31 games the last two seasons. That suggests a downside of just a two-category contributor, which is why he is not ranked higher. Of course, he is still plenty valuable with that strong strikeout rate and above average ground ball percentage.

Derek Holland

Holland likely saw his perceived value increase with his overall postseason performance, when he posted a 3.38 ERA. His skills this year were solid all around, yet unspectacular. However, the most exciting observation is that of his fastball velocity. It jumped 2.1 miles per hour, which is huge. Surprisingly though, the increased velocity did not lead to a spike in his SwStk% or K%. Fastball velocity has a pretty strong correlation to strikeout rate, for obvious reasons, so if he could sustain the jump, I would expect his strikeout rate to rise, potentially returning to the 8.0 range. His control may regress a bit next season given his mediocre F-Strike%, but a better strikeout rate will offset that, and his slight ground ball tilt could lead to an ERA in the 3.50-3.75 range.

Well, Tuesday was certainly a busy day in the AL Central. And while I’d love to drop 1500 words or so on Bill Smith’s exit and the return of Terry Ryan, unless you’re in an AL-Only front office league, that’s not exactly fantasy relevant. Also, if you’re in a league that counts front office members, tell me in the comments, I’d love to see that.) The Sanchez-for-Cabrera swap, on the other hand, is worth looking into.

I love this deal, not for either team per se, but as an observer with no rooting interest. This is a deal that could make either GM look really good, and while I have my suspicions as to who will look better come this time next year, I wouldn’t bet much money either way. Jonathan Sanchez is a high strikeout arm who can’t keep runners off base, while Melky Cabrera hasn’t exactly been the model of consistency throughout his career either. It will be an interesting story line to follow next year.

From a fantasy perspective, I don’t see Sanchez being an option except in very deep mixed and by default in AL-Only. His strikeout rate — the 11th highest in baseball (min 100 IP) — makes him alluring, but he was owned in just 44 percent of Yahoo! leagues last year because of his substantial downside.

In 2010, his .252 BABIP kept his hit rate down, which meant he posted a WHIP you can live with, 1.23, despite a BB/9 of nearly 4.5. In 2011, his BABIP didn’t even fully regress to his career average, but a jump of 20 points up to .272 was enough to pull his hit rate back into the 7s. In and of itself, a H/9 of 7.1 is fine, but when it’s paired with a BB/9 of 5.9, his resulting WHIP of 1.44 is tough to swallow. He’s never been particularly good at run prevention, and he matched his career ERA of 4.26 precisely in 2011. The strikeouts and walks are part-and-parcel of Sanchez at this point, and while perhaps a new pitching coach will know how to help him, I’m not banking on that happening. A change of scenery will be nice, I’m sure, but it’s not going to help him a lick statistically speaking.

A good rule of thumb when a pitcher switches from the NL to the AL is to add half a run to his ERA — as of 2008, the actual number was .41 runs, but if your just looking for a ballpark figure, .5 is easier to remember — which would give Sanchez an ERA of nearly 4.75. He’s also moving from one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in the majors to a relatively even park in KC. Home runs haven’t been one of his major issues in the past, but he’ll need to be a little more careful in a stadium that doesn’t suppress them the way AT&T Park does. If his HR rate does jump with the park switch, his walk rate will make those bombs all the more costly.

One thing working in Sanchez’s favor, and it isn’t much, is that he was injured for a large portion of the 2011 season. Biceps tendinitis and an ankle sprain caused him to miss nearly 80 days of the season, limiting him to just 19 starts, his fewest since he became a full-time starter in 2008. It isn’t too much of a stretch to suggest that the biceps injury may have been causing him trouble before it pushed him to the disabled list, but suggesting that it made a profound difference is going too far. He should be healthy next year, which is a good foundation, but it’s not going to solve his location issues.

It may seem odd, given the rather grim take I’ve presented above, but I like this deal for the Royals. To understand what they see in Sanchez, I think it’s important to look at what they gave up. Part of the reason I like this deal for the Royals is that they’ve essentially purchased two lottery tickets with found money. They grabbed Cabrera last offseason for $1.25 million, and by moving him at what was almost surely peak value, have now turned him into two players who could be useful parts. Yes, both have serious flaws and Cabrera could well prove to be the best player in this deal, but with Lorenzo Cain waiting in the wings, it’s an interesting gamble to take.

If the choice was a player like Sanchez, who may or may not be valuable or someone like Bud Norris, who will be more consistent at a similar WAR level, I think the Royals made the right call. Sanchez is likely to give them at least a handful of starts where he has his good stuff and shuts down an opponent, but I just don’t see them coming often enough for him to be worthwhile in most fantasy contexts. Anything he produces above and beyond that is found money once again for KC.

Mike Leake burst onto the scene in 2010 as the latest player to make the leap directly into the majors after being drafted. He showed some great promise in his first two MLB seasons. Now, will this level of production continue into 2012?

The 23-year-old relies on mixing up his various pitches for success. He doesn’t have over-powering stuff especially for a right-handed pitcher. His average fastball speed isn’t over 90 MPH. Even though he doesn’t seem to be a strikeout machine, he does get a fairly decent amount of strikeouts with a 6.3 K/9 in 2011. Also, he has the shown great control by having a 2.0 BB/9 for 2011. To top it all off, his GB% of 48% is better than league average. His 2011 stats are similar to his 2010 stats, except his BB/9 improved from 2.9 to 2.0. Combining all these together, he is not great, but a serviceable starter.

Read the rest of this entry »

Now we have to move out of the realm of pitchers who contribute in nearly every category. Now we have to start looking at arms with notable drawbacks, whether it’s a strikeout rate in the 5-6 range, a WHIP and ERA built on unsustainable peripherals, or a lack of a track record. There aren’t many arms left that offer sure success. Jaime Garcia might have more in common with the tier above than with the rest of this crowd, but the difference is minimal.

Recapping the day’s top story:

Read the rest of this entry »