The Cincinnati Reds, now with Mat Latos on board and apparently ready to let Mike Leake abscond with the back-end rotation duties, used their plethora of starters to acquire Sean Marshall, whom they view as having the potential to close games. In that deal, they jettisoned Travis Wood along with two youths to the Chicago Cubs, where he will likely slot in as the team’s #3 starter behind Ryan Dempster and Matt Garza, assuming of course that Garza is not traded.

Wood, 24, will be under team control for five years, so there’s certainly time for the Cubs to be patient, but for fantasy baseball purposes in 2012, the more pressing issue is what does this move mean for his value now.

In 2010, it appeared that Wood was establishing himself as a rising star with a 3.51 ERA (3.42 FIP), 1.08 WHIP, and a K/9 of 7.54 in over 100 innings pitched – all as a starter. Some concern was that his 2010 was somewhat buoyed by a .259 BABIP and a low HR/FB rate of 6.3% for a flyball pitcher in a hitters park. Indeed, 2011 treated him to a .324 BABIP although his HR/FB rate still remained low at 6.7%. On the whole, he was far more hittable and he lacked his usual control leading to a disappointing 4.84 ERA (4.06 FIP) and 1.49 WHIP, ultimately resulting in a demotion. When he was recalled, it was mostly as a reliever, and he remained ineffective.

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As some of the commenters pointed out in my first look at ADPs on Mock Draft Central, average draft position figures do have their flaws. However, just like any statistic that attempts to measure a certain aspect of a player’s game, or even his overall value, that doesn’t mean we should just ignore it if it isn’t 100% perfect. The information is still much better than nothing. So, that means you will be getting a lot more ADP analysis from me, whether you like it or not (you will LOVE IT)! I will continue on by looking at some of the American League starting pitchers I believe to be overvalued. I am only looking at them on a relative basis against other AL starters, rather than considering their draft round.

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Heading into the offseason, Roy Oswalt told teams he was looking for a multiyear contract, which severely limited the market for the 34-year-old. Now that he has relented on that demand, and has instead said that he’s looking for a one year deal to rebuild his value after an injury plagued 2011 campaign, he has teams beating a path to his agent’s office — or at least politely calling and leaving a message stating their interest in his client.

Money will of course be a factor in Oswalt’s final decision — money is always a factor in any decision regarding player movement — but it isn’t unthinkable that he might take less to play in a park that will make him a more attractive option this time next year. That said, he’s not passing up $5 million a year from the Mets to take $1.50 and a bus pass from the Cubs, so perhaps not all things are weighted equally. Read the rest of this entry »

Back in 2008, Edinson Volquez shone near as brightly as any young starter in the game. The 24-year-old, acquired from Texas the previous winter for Josh Hamilton, used his low-90s heat and devastating changeup to post a 3.21 ERA and 4.2 Wins Above Replacement in nearly 200 innings. Since then, however, his standing has dimmed considerably. Volquez succumbed to Tommy John surgery in 2009, got slapped with a 50-game PED suspension in 2010 and got lit up and demoted to the minors in 2011. He has been worth just 0.8 WAR over the past three years, with a 5.01 ERA in 221 frames.

It seems odd, then, to suggest that a pitcher coming off three lost seasons could be a bargain in 2012. But Volquez still has strikeout stuff and shouldn’t have near as much of a problem keeping the ball in the park next season as he did in 2011, especially with his move west to Petco as part of San Diego’s haul for Mat Latos. If Volquez can at least show passable control — particularly against lefties — he could provide a nice return on investment in the later rounds on draft day.

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There’s no place like home. No one knows this more than Mat Latos, who called the cavernous Petco Park his home over the last three and a half seasons. That all changed on Saturday, as Latos was traded to the Cincinnati Reds for a bevy of prospects. While Latos has shown flashes of greatness in the past, we’ve seen Petco Park make pitchers look substantially better than they deserve. With Latos moving to one of the more hitter-friendly ballparks in the National League, how much can we expect him to regress?

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I am going to take a break from reviewing my old and limping team to focus on the American League starting pitchers taken in the draft. It is always interesting to see how certain players rise or fall as we head into draft season, even when there is no news out that should affect that player’s value. So let’s see if I could dig up anything interesting. Remember, this was a mock dynasty league, although some of us (me) didn’t realize it was a dynasty until after the fact.

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A few people have asked to see the breakdown of certain positions in our recent staff mock draft, and since I am loathe to turn down good suggestions for content this time of year, here are your National League starting pitchers in the order in which they were picked. Remember that this is a keeper draft, so age played a big role in some of these picks. Picks are labeled with (Round.Pick)

Clayton Kershaw (2.8)
Roy Halladay (2.10)
Cliff Lee (3.3)
Tim Lincecum (3.10)
Cole Hamels (3.11)

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Most of the Pittsburgh Pirates’ offseason moves have been met with a snicker. Rod Barajas? At least we’ll get to see the pierogie race earlier, with him getting out so quickly. Clint Barmes? Isn’t that a pseudonym for “Expensive Ronny Cedeno?” The Erik Bedard signing seems fit for ridicule, too. Looks like Charlie Morton will have a rehab buddy.

But that last one’s not really fair. Pittsburgh paid little for Bedard’s services — just $4.5 million, with $500K in possible incentives — and he’s coming off his best, healthiest season since he finished fifth in Cy Young balloting with the Orioles back in 2007. The Bucs went for upside with Bedard instead of giving similar dough to the Chien-Ming Wangs and Aaron Harangs of the world, and you should do the same even if it means absorbing a few potshots from your league buddies.

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The Rockies seem hell-bent on stockpiling low-cost arms this offseason, and there seem to be plenty of willing partners out there with arms to spare. After bringing in Tyler Chatwood from the Angels, Dan O’Dowd and his team acquired Kevin Slowey from the Twins for a player to be named later, who would turn out to be Daniel Turpen. Read the rest of this entry »

C.J. Wilson is headed from the 2011 American League Champs to the 2011 American League West Division Runners-up (somehow, I don’t think they will be raising that last banner in Anaheim any time soon). This has huge implications for the division – the Angels finished 10 games out in 2011, with Wilson producing a WAR of 5.9. Move those 6 wins off the Rangers and put even half of them on the Angels, and you have yourself an awfully tight race.

But there are rather large implications for fantasy owners, as well. Wilson’s ERA, WHIP, K, and Wins — the traditional Roto stats — will all be impacted by the move, as will stats like HR, 2B, 3B, and BB, which impact many leagues, including most ottoneu leagues. There are a few things a fantasy player should look at in evaluating this type of change, and Wilson to LAA presents a unique change where some of the changing factors are easier than normal to isolate. Of course most of you can probably predict that a move to Anaheim will help Wilson’s value, but that isn’t really the point — this is also a chance to look at how to evaluate the impact of a scenery change on a pitcher.

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