FanGraphs Mock Draft — AL Starting Pitchers

I am going to take a break from reviewing my old and limping team to focus on the American League starting pitchers taken in the draft. It is always interesting to see how certain players rise or fall as we head into draft season, even when there is no news out that should affect that player’s value. So let’s see if I could dig up anything interesting. Remember, this was a mock dynasty league, although some of us (me) didn’t realize it was a dynasty until after the fact.

Although my strategy was to wait even longer than usual on pitching given that a hitter has a less murky future than a pitcher, the top pitchers generally were drafted as expected. Nine AL starting pitchers were off the board by the end of the sixth round. David Price, who currently sports an ADP sixth among AL starters, actually was selected third among AL starters in this draft. No doubt, age and expectations of continued growth were behind this pick.

Rookie phenom Matt Moore was the fifth AL SP drafted, ahead of proven veterans such as Jered Weaver, C.C. Sabathia and Josh Beckett. Would I have made that pick? No, because again my goal, even in a keeper league, is always to focus on the upcoming year, as opposed to always playing for the future. However, Moore may very well be awesome and the pick is certainly justifiable.

Although Moore went fifth, another highly regarded rookie who actually pitched a full 2011 season, and impressively at that, was drafted two and a half rounds later. Michael Pineda as the last pick of the seventh could eventually pay strong dividends, but of course he has to contend with the potential lack of wins being supported by such a putrid offense.

There had to be some internal debate and a balancing act relating to Jeremy Hellickson, who was the 12th AL SP off the board. On one hand, he was very clearly lucky to have posted a sub-3.00 ERA during his rookie campaign given his lackluster peripherals. He actually deserved an ERA well above 4.00. On the other hand, more advanced metrics suggest that the peripherals themselves were weaker than they should have been. While you try wrapping your head around that, factor in that he will be just 25 next year and his minor league history hints at a top pitcher.

Right after Ricky Romero and before Justin Masterson and going in the 12th round as the 15th AL SP selected, was the Rangers’ newest reliever-turned-starter experiment, Neftali Feliz. A couple of weeks ago, I analyzed his transition and tried to come up with a rough projection for him as a starter. We then drop down a couple of rounds to the 16th and the 21st AL SP to the next reliever-turned-starter, Chris Sale. I am a fan and not sure how I managed not to draft him, as I like him more than Feliz. Last in this camp is Daniel Bard, selected just seven picks after Sale, whose move to the rotation is likely solidified after the Red Sox acquisition of Mark Melancon. He also has an exciting set of skills and a dominating fastball, but walked more than he struck out the last time he tried to start while in the low minors in 2007.

I have to admit, after looking down the list of AL starters drafted, I cannot believe I snagged Derek Holland in round 17, right after Daniel Bard. His ADP is right around that mark, so given this draft format, I figured he’d get a value bump. He is just 25, has pretty solid skills and was fantastic in the minors, hinting at further upside.





Mike Podhorzer is the 2015 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Baseball Writer of the Year. He produces player projections using his own forecasting system and is the author of the eBook Projecting X 2.0: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance, which teaches you how to project players yourself. His projections helped him win the inaugural 2013 Tout Wars mixed draft league. Follow Mike on Twitter @MikePodhorzer and contact him via email.

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Matty Brown
12 years ago

Holland is money in the 17th.