On Tuesday night the first round of the “Beltway Series” kicked off in D.C. and O’s fans showed out. It was a fun night all around. “Fired Up Guy” battled beltway traffic and came down to D.C. to give his support:

Heck, Yennier Cano even road the bullpen cart:

But the real fun was watching Dean Kremer work. Let me take you into a tense moment. It begins with no outs in the bottom of the third inning. CJ Abrams knocked a leadoff single into center field and waited patiently on first base. Next, Victor Robles reached, not first, but second on what was ruled an error by Gunnar Henderson. Take a look:

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Welcome back to the SP Drip. My goal for this bi-weekly column is to comb through the upcoming schedule each week to find a few under-owned pitchers (less than 50% ownership across Ottoneu) who could be used to help you hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues or to make sure you’re hitting your innings pitched cap in points leagues. Tuesday’s article will cover the weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday) and Friday’s article will cover the upcoming week (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday). That way, you’ll have time to start your auctions in time to actually drip these pitchers into your lineup.

Upcoming Schedule:

I’ve started pulling current season data for team offenses to assess matchups rather than continue utilizing the rest-of-season projections. That means there are a bunch of teams who were projected to be good who are currently underperforming and vice versa.

Teams with easier schedules include the Braves, Brewers, Cardinals, Diamondbacks, Guardians, Mets, Royals, and Yankees.

Teams with tougher schedules include the A’s, Mariners, Marlins, Rangers, Reds, Tigers, and White Sox.

Highlighted matchups:

Brad Keller sits just below our 50% ownership cutoff and he’s been a common recommendation in these columns this year. He’s continued to struggle with his command early this season but he’s also only given up a single home run and just 14 hits in 21 innings. He gets a nice matchup against the Diamondbacks in their dinger suppressing ballpark next week.

Another common recommendation, Kyle Gibson lines up to face the Tigers two starts in a row, once this weekend and again on Thursday. His last start against the White Sox didn’t go super well — four runs on seven hits and two walks with just a single strikeout in 5.1 innings — but the other three starts he’s made this season have been solid. His two-step against Detroit is just too good to pass up.

Colin Rea is also lined up to face the Tigers next week. He’s been a serviceable starter for the Brewers after Brandon Woodruff went down with his shoulder injury. He had a pretty good season in Japan last year and has looked decent in his return to the States. He held the Padres to a single run across 5.2 innings in his first start but was knocked around by the Mariners in his second.

José Suarez and Griffin Canning are scheduled to face the A’s at home next week. That’s a pretty juicy matchup, but beware the high home run park factor of Angel Stadium. Suarez hasn’t been good this year, with a walk rate that matches his strikeout rate. A date against Oakland seems like a good candidate for a get-right start. Canning is a bit more interesting. Injuries derailed a very promising start to his career over the last few years. He’s healthy and has made a couple of solid starts so far this year.

Jhony Brito bounced back from his ugly start against the Twins by holding the Angels to just a single run across 4.1 innings on Wednesday. He’s scheduled to face Minnesota again next week and will be looking to improve on his seven-run disaster the last time he faced them.

Recap: April 17–20

A really good week with four clear wins and no obvious losses. Keller’s start against the Rangers was dragged down by the five walks he allowed and Michael Wacha just hasn’t been able to replicate the magic he showed in his second start of the season against the Braves.

Welcome back to the SP Drip. My goal for this bi-weekly column is to comb through the upcoming schedule each week to find a few under-owned pitchers (less than 50% ownership across Ottoneu) who could be used to help you hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues or to make sure you’re hitting your innings pitched cap in points leagues. Tuesday’s article will cover the weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday) and Friday’s article will cover the upcoming week (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday). That way, you’ll have time to start your auctions in time to actually drip these pitchers into your lineup.

Upcoming Schedule:

I’ve started pulling current season data for team offenses to assess matchups rather than continue utilizing the rest-of-season projections. That means there are a bunch of teams who were projected to be good who are currently underperforming and vice versa.

Teams with an easier weekend schedule include the Marlins, Nationals, Orioles, Padres, Phillies Rangers, Reds, and Twins. The Diamondbacks and Giants are both playing at home in their cavernous ballparks but they’re facing the Padres and Mets, respectively. On paper, it’s a decent matchup for Arizona and San Francisco because their opponents are underperforming a bit, but be weary.

Teams with tougher schedules include the Astros, Blue Jays, Brewers, Cubs, Mariners, Red Sox, Rockies, Royals, Tigers, White Sox, and Yankees.

Highlighted matchups:

I’ve only got a handful of recommendations this weekend. The Orioles are hosting the Tigers who currently have the worst offense in baseball by a wide margin. That means it’s a great opportunity to drip Tyler Wells and Kyle Gibson into your rosters. The former has had a decent start to the year, allowing just a single walk in three starts with an acceptable amount of strikeouts and hits allowed. Gibson has been a successful recommendation twice already this season and this matchup is his best yet.

The Guardians will host the hapless Marlins offense this weekend, giving you another opportunity to drip Zach Plesac and Hunter Gaddis into your rosters. Plesac has been fine after his implosion in his first start of the year against the A’s. The strikeouts aren’t there but he isn’t walking anyone either. Gaddis has only allowed a single home run this season, relying on weak contact in the air to get many of his outs. His xFIP is an unsightly 5.74, however, so start him at your own risk.

The Rockies will travel to Philadelphia this weekend and Bailey Falter might be lined up for a start on Saturday or Sunday. The Phillies have a double-header today and don’t have an off day this week so their rotation might need to be reconfigured over the weekend. Keep an eye on whether or not Falter is listed as a probable for that series against Colorado.

Recap: April 14–16

A couple of recommendations ended up missing starts last weekend — Dylan Dodd was sent back to Triple-A when Kyle Wright was activated from the IL and Matthew Boyd had his start delayed by rain two days in a row. I think we can call Anthony DeSclafani and Michael Grove’s starts wins with Jhony Brito and Nick Martinez’s clear losses. Seth Lugo also struggled through his start, but ended up earning enough points to call it a wash.

It’s been about a week since I last reviewed the starting pitcher fastball velocity gainers, so let’s take another look. Velocity does fluctuate from start to start, so even though it’s far more meaningful in one game than a pitcher’s walk rate in that game, it’s still subject to the same small sample size caveats as any other metric. So with a bunch more innings in the books, let’s revisit the fastball velocity gainers. It’s also important to check the game logs and see if the velocity has been consistent, or if the average was inflated by just one outing. Finally, it’s helpful to check the maxVel, because a pitcher might not actually be throwing harder, but instead the smaller sample has reduced his lower velocity fastballs that over a season would bring down his average.

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Welcome back to the SP Drip. My goal for this bi-weekly column is to comb through the upcoming schedule each week to find a few under-owned pitchers (less than 50% ownership across Ottoneu) who could be used to help you hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues or to make sure you’re hitting your innings pitched cap in points leagues. Tuesday’s article will cover the weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday) and Friday’s article will cover the upcoming week (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday). That way, you’ll have time to start your auctions in time to actually drip these pitchers into your lineup.

Upcoming Schedule:

Its feast or famine this week. Easy schedules include the A’s, Cardinals, Cubs, Giants, Guardians, Marlins, Rangers, Royals, and Tigers.

A bunch of squads have a tough matchup to start the week including the Angels, Astros, Blue Jays, Dodgers, Mets, Padres, Pirates, Phillies, Reds, Twins, White Sox, and Yankees.

Highlighted matchups:

There aren’t a ton of great matchups to recommend this week with a bunch of riskier plays if you’re desperate for innings or need to hit your games started cap. Michael Wacha has been a little overlooked in these columns in favor of his rotation-mates Nick Martinez and Seth Lugo, but Wacha’s actually been pretty decent in his two starts this year. Impressively, he held the Braves scoreless over six innings in his last outing with ten strikeouts. He’s lined up to start against the Diamondbacks in Arizona on Thursday.

Brad Keller continues to impress with his revamped breaking balls; Stuff+ loves both his slider (137 Stuff+) and curveball (114 Stuff+). The only knock against him has been his lack of control of those two pitches early on. Everyone has scrambled to pick up his teammate Kris Bubic, but Keller deserves some attention too. He just held the Rangers to a single run in 6.2 innings while striking out seven on Wednesday and he’ll get to face them again at home on Tuesday.

Matt Strahm has yet to allow a run in three appearances and two starts this year and as long as he’s getting a chance to contribute in the rotation, he’s worth considering dripping into your rotation. I didn’t recommend him for his start against the Reds in the bandbox in Cincinnati but he gets a really nice matchup against the Rockies at home on Thursday.

Ken Waldichuk has had a really rough start to the season, allowing 17 runs in 15 innings. To be fair, he ran into the Angels and the Rays for his first two starts and looked a bit better against the Orioles in his last outing. His ownership rate has dropped below 50% in Ottoneu as frustrated players have cut him loose. Still, he was ranked 86th on the 2023 Top Prospects list and looked promising during his cup of coffee last year. If you want to take a chance on him, he has a nice matchup against the Cubs at home on the docket.

There are a couple of Guardians starters worth mentioning for their matchup against the Tigers in Detroit. Hunter Gaddis looked great against the A’s a week ago but got crushed by the Yankees in his last start. Peyton Battenfield made his major league debut this week against those same Bronx Bombers and held them to just two runs in 4.2 innings. He was ranked 40th on Cleveland’s prospect list and fits their archetype of pitchers who have a deep repertoire with a strong breaking ball, but struggle with their fastball. Both would be pretty significant risks, but the matchup and venue are pretty favorable.

Recap: April 10–13

Three wins and two losses last week and a bunch of meh. Strahm continues to be a solid recommendation and Bryce Elder impressed again. The Chris Flexen recommendation was an ugly affair but he had been such a consistent, if unexciting, starter last year I thought it would work out against the Cubs. It didn’t. Despite struggling against the A’s in his start on Wednesday, I’m recommending another Kremer start as you can see above. Maybe he’ll be able to handle the Nationals this time around.

Welcome back to the SP Drip. My goal for this bi-weekly column is to comb through the upcoming schedule each week to find a few under-owned pitchers (less than 50% ownership across Ottoneu) who could be used to help you hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues or to make sure you’re hitting your innings pitched cap in points leagues. Tuesday’s article will cover the weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday) and Friday’s article will cover the upcoming week (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday). That way, you’ll have time to start your auctions in time to actually drip these pitchers into your lineup.

Upcoming Schedule:

A bunch of teams have easier schedules this weekend including the Braves, Cardinals, Diamondbacks, Giants, Mariners, Marlins, Mets, and Tigers.

Difficult schedules include the Angles, Brewers, Cubs, Nationals, Orioles, Rangers, Rays, Red Sox, Reds, Twins, and White Sox.

Highlighted matchups:

Despite all the teams with bad matchups, there’s a full slate of recommendations this weekend. The two young starters from the Braves, Dylan Dodd and Bryce Elder, are scheduled to make starts in Kansas City against the Royals. The former had a rough outing against the Padres in his last start, allowing seven runs in 4.1 innings. The Royals should prove to be a much easier opponent. Elder just held the Reds scoreless over 6.1 innings in his start on Monday and hasn’t allowed a run in either of his starts this year.

The two Padres pitchers are creeping up in ownership since the start of the season and both are light recommendations against the Brewers. It’s not an obvious matchup to exploit since Milwaukee has actually been hitting pretty well to start the season, but it’s at home and both Nick Martinez and Seth Lugo have proven they can be counted on this season. The latter has been particularly impressive in his return to the rotation with another strong start coming against the Braves on Sunday.

Anthony DeSclafani turned in another solid start in his last turn through the rotation and he gets a really easy matchup against the Tigers in their huge ballpark. On the other side of that matchup, Matthew Boyd could be a bit more of a risky pick. He handled the Astros and Red Sox okay, allowing two runs in each of those starts, but he hasn’t been able to pitch out of the fifth inning yet. He’s allowed as many walks as he has strikeouts so the efficiency is still lacking.

Jhony Brito is lined up to make his third start of his career after capably handling the Orioles last weekend. He gets a tougher opponent in the Twins so this will be a pretty tough test for him. I’m recommending him anyway. Michael Grove did not fare well in his second start after impressing in his season debut; he allowed nine runs to the Diamondbacks on Sunday. He’ll get the Cubs at home in his next start and that’s a bit of a risk given the high home run park factor of Dodger Stadium. I’d understand if you wanted to wait and see how he performs this weekend before picking him up.

Recap: April 7–9

A much better weekend after those terrible results during the first week in April. I count two clear wins and no losses. The surprise was Brad Keller’s performance against the Giants. The strikeouts weren’t there, but he held San Francisco to just three hits in 5.2 innings of work. That’ll play. Nick Pivetta’s start got pushed back to Monday, but he performed well against the Rays, shutting them out over five innings with six strikeouts and just two walks.

Yesterday, I revisited the starting pitcher fastball velocity increasers. Today, it’s time to return to the starting pitchers who have suffered velocity declines. Any names that appeared in my first article will be skipped in the commentary. A reminder that velocity tends to increase as the season progresses, so it’s not necessarily time to panic just yet. However, since I’m only discussing the biggest decliners, odds are most, if not all, of these pitchers will fail to regain the velocity they showed last year.

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We’re going to continue on reviewing fastball velocities as it’s one of the few metrics that actually mean something this early. Note that for whatever reason, velocity readings are all over the map for the same pitch by the same pitcher, depending on which source I’m looking at, so it makes it kind of impossible to know for sure how hard a pitcher is throwing. Hopefully, the relative numbers are correct, as in a 1.5 MPH increase from one source matches another source, even if the absolute velocities differ. With a second start under a bunch of pitchers’ belts, along with first starts by a number of pitchers, let’s review the increasers again. Any names that appeared in my first article will be skipped in the commentary.

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The pitch clock is one of the various rule changes implemented this season. Some pitchers were going to be affected more than others, but it was tough to know who exactly before the season started. Some names are starting to come to light with Carlos Carrasco blaming the lack of time between pitches for his velocity drop.

Carlos Carrasco could not record an out in the fifth inning of his season debut. His final line:

4+ IP, 4 H, 5 ER, 4 BB, 4 K, 96 pitches.

Carrasco's average four-seam fastball velocity was 91.1 mph, the lowest of any outing in his career. pic.twitter.com/yEmDTDr6a2

— Anthony DiComo (@AnthonyDiComo) April 3, 2023

With most starters having one start under their belts, I decided to see who gained or lost velocity each time through the batting order compared to last season. Read the rest of this entry »

Welcome back to the SP Drip. My goal for this bi-weekly column is to comb through the upcoming schedule each week to find a few under-owned pitchers (less than 50% ownership across Ottoneu) who could be used to help you hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues or to make sure you’re hitting your innings pitched cap in points leagues. Tuesday’s article will cover the weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday) and Friday’s article will cover the upcoming week (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday). That way, you’ll have time to start your auctions in time to actually drip these pitchers into your lineup.

Upcoming Schedule:

Obvious favorable schedules include the Astros, Braves, Brewers, Dodgers, Rangers, and Orioles. There are also a handful of teams who are either playing tough opponents in pitcher friendly ballparks or against weaker teams in smaller venues; the A’s, Cubs, Diamondbacks, Mariners, Red Sox, and White Sox fall into this camp.

Bad matchups include the Cardinals, Guardians, Marlins, Mets, Nationals, Pirates, Reds, Rockies, and Tigers.

Highlighted matchups:

The series between the Orioles and A’s features three different recommendations. Kyle Gibson has thrown two decent starts so far this year with an 8:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 12 innings. He introduced a sweeper late last year and it’s been featured pretty heavily in his pitch mix so far this season. Dean Kremer is a bit more of a risk, even with the weak opponent. He’s had spurts of success, particularly last year, and his first two opponents this season were pretty tough — the Red Sox and Yankees — but he’s also introduced a sweeper into his repertoire.

For Oakland, JP Sears is a repeat recommendation and Kyle Muller would have been but his ownership rate crossed over the 50% threshold this week. Sears struggled a bit in his first start against the Guardians, throwing 4.2 innings with eight hits allowed, one walk, and five strikeouts. Adam Oller is also lined up to start during this series and you’d have to take a pretty big leap of faith to consider starting him.

José Suarez and Matt Strahm fall into that camp of matchups in a dangerous ballpark against a weak team. The former ran into some trouble against the Mariners in his first start of the season but the Nationals pose a much weaker threat. Strahm threw four scoreless innings against the Yankees during his spot start on Tuesday. The lack of bulk is a concern as is the hard contact that went unrewarded in New York.

Bryce Elder was phenomenal in his spot start for the Braves on Wednesday, holding the Cardinals scoreless over six innings with six strikeouts. Atlanta’s rotation is a bit of a mess with two starters on the IL and Elder, Jared Shuster, and Dylan Dodd battling over who will get to stick in the big leagues once everyone gets healthy. Dodd and Elder certainly look more viable as major league starters and the latter has the benefit of a nice matchup early next week.

Recap: April 3–6

After a good start during the first weekend of the season, my recommendations last week were pretty brutal. I count two wins — Muller and Grove — with seven ugly losses including a ghastly -24.1 points from Plesac against the A’s and -22.1 points from Crawford against the Pirates. Ouch. I’m not not sure there are any solid lessons to be taken away from this group of really bad performances. I liked the matchups on paper, but sometimes pitchers throw stinkers against weak teams and you just have to roll with the punches.