Just four short days ago, Jeff Zimmerman inspired anger and vitriol from the loyal readers of this blog by suggesting that it was time to sell C.J. Wilson.
Well, I am nothing if not a man of the people, so I am here to defend the honor of the Angels’ very expensive lefty.
With the All-Star break upon us, we finally don’t have to worry about our fantasy teams for a few days. It’s always nice to have that little break, especially when you run multiple teams. Rather than the usual daily waiver wire shtick, let’s take a look at four players who have gone from undrafted and afterthoughts to key contributors in all formats.
Carlos Ruiz | C | Phillies | Preseason ADP: 290 | Owned: 89% Yahoo! and 100% ESPN
Chooch has been, my far, the best hitting catcher in baseball this season. He came into the year with a .265/.357/.393 career batting line which is solid but not exactly worth a fantasy roster spot. The 33-year-old Ruiz carries a .350/.412/.584 (!) line into the break this summer, having already hit a career-best 13 homers with 21 doubles that are just eight shy of his career-high. He’s moved into a more premium lineup spot — fourth or fifth depending on whether or not Ryan Howard plays — and the result has been 46 RBI that are the second most among qualified catchers and eight short of his career-high. His 523 ottoneu points lead all catchers by a significant margin.
Ruiz’s production will likely step back for a number of reasons in the second half, mostly because catchers tend to wear down in August in September. A .362 BABIP and 18.3% HR/FB don’t exactly scream sustainable either. That said, Chooch’s first half production is already in the bank and anyone who grabbed him off waivers in April is surely thrilled.
Michael Fiers is the fire that the Brewers rotation needed when Shaun Marcum went down. What remains to be seen is if he’s the slow-burning campfire that will keep giving all year or the short-lived snap crackle pop of your average Independence Day firecracker in San Diego.
He wasn’t supposed to be this good. He didn’t even crack Baseball America’s top ten going into the season — his only appearances on the page were a mention for Best Control in the system and a thought by Tom Haudricourt that he might help the team, in some capacity, because he’d proven himself at Triple-A. Our own Marc Hulet put Fiers 15th on the Brewers list, mentioned he was 26 and didn’t have much of a ceiling, and then gave him the “likely swing-man” mark of doom.
C.J. Wilson was paid $77.5M this off season to come in and be a front line starter for the Angels. With Jered Weaver and Dan Haren already on the team, he wasn’t going to be the only ace of the staff, but he has pitched like one. It is now time to sell high on Wilson’s great 1st half of the season. He has 9 Wins, a 2.33 ERA (6th among qualified starters) and a 1.17 WHIP. These stats put him within the top 20 SP in production for the 2012 season (16th SP with ESPN’s Player Rater). His stats don’t match his perifial numbers so he has a good chance of regressing quite a bit in the second half of the season.
Even with all that we know about ERA and how questionable it can be in evaluating the value of a pitcher, a 4.98 mark is still pretty ugly, especially in the lowered offensive environment we’re seeing this year. In fact, it’s so ugly that it ranks among the bottom 10% or so of all qualified major league pitchers, mostly above struggling youngsters like Jake Arrieta, Luke Hochevar, Hector Noesi, & Mike Minor, along with whatever it is that’s ruining Tim Lincecum’s career. It’s not a great group to be in, but for Detroit starter Max Scherzer, that 4.98 stands out as a phenomenal reason to target him as the trade deadline nears.
If you look at that list of poor ERA starters, two things immediately stand out about Scherzer. First, his FIP is a much more reasonable 3.76, one of the highest ERA-FIP differentials in the game; second, his K/9 rate is an outstanding 11.36. Other than Stephen Strasburg’s 11.81, no other starting pitcher in baseball has a higher mark, and I’m guessing you could win a lot of bar bets by knowing that the highest K rate in the American League belongs to Scherzer, not Felix Hernandez or Yu Darvish or Justin Verlander.
Of course, you don’t get to such a high ERA by accident, and in Scherzer’s case, there’s some pretty obvious reasons behind that. You can point to his 1.39/9 homer rate, high even for a pitcher who doesn’t have the built-in advantage of Comerica Park, and his .359 BABIP, far above his career mark of .318. The BABIP gap may be a little tough to fully overcome, given the atrocious defense the Tigers roll out behind him on a nightly basis, but everything else is trending in the right direction. Read the rest of this entry »
Adam Wainwright’s last start was a match up with an historically bad offense and it was such a no brainer that he was my starting pitcher pick in “The Game” here on Fangraphs. Seven runs and 11 hits over five innings pitched versus the Pittsburgh Pirates later, I felt rather duped. And yet, I’m still bullish on Adam Wainwright.
Here’s what I know. Between 2007 and 2008, Adam Wainwright was a very good starting pitcher. Between 2009 and 2010, he was great. You wanted Adam Wainwright on your fantasy team, and you wanted him badly. I just know it.
And then we know about elbow surgery.
But despite it being a particularly damning diagnosis in the short term, Tommy John surgery isn’t quite as terrifying as it used to be since we’ve seen so many pitchers return to have successful post-surgery careers. Often times, we see pitchers simply scraping off the rust after spending the better part of a year recovering and rehabbing and not throwing baseballs. But their skills often return.
Lance Lynn – Lance started out the season hot, but recently he has been on the decline. Here are his main fantasy stats by month:
| Month | W | K | WHIP | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April | 4 | 24 | 0.81 | 1.33 |
| May | 4 | 36 | 1.25 | 3.44 |
| June | 2 | 38 | 1.59 | 5.67 |
Sure, it’s a buy-low piece. But what I’m really saying is, trade me Matt Moore. Because I’m buying.
We can start with his strengths, even if they are obvious. His 11.9% swinging strike rate is fourth among qualified starters. Only Cole Hamels, R.A. Dickey and Stephen Strasburg garner more whiffs. That leads to a strikeout per inning, which is extremely valuable from a starter. All from a wicked 95+ mph fastball and a great changeup and curveball combination.
Let’s kick off this week’s waiver wire updates with two East division players, an AL pitcher and a NL outfielder…
Franklin Morales | SP, RP | Red Sox | Owned: 20% Yahoo! and 18.6% ESPN
When the Red Sox put Daniel Bard in the rotation, they were supposed to be able to fall back on using him as a reliever if it didn’t work out. Instead, he’s gone to Triple-A and continued to struggle. Morales, 26, has kinda done the opposite. Expectations were relatively low coming into the season, but he pitched very well in a relief role (3.04 ERA and 3.48 FIP in 23.2 IP) before moving into the rotation to take Bard’s spot (2.00 ERA and 0.88 FIP in 18 IP). Those 18 innings as a starter feature 24 strikeouts and just three walks.
Carlos Martinez – During a trip to the disabled list for a sore shoulder, yes I said during, Martinez was promoted to Double-A Springfield. While many were perplexed by the decision, I jumped for joy. More Carlos Martinez to watch! After his first start I wondered whether the organization had changed his mechanics since last year. His arm action looked a lot shorter and his arms and legs weren’t gyrating like something out of cirque du soleil. Read the rest of this entry »