RotoGraphs Consensus Ranks: Starting Pitcher

by
March 7, 2013

The pitcher rankings! My favorite. There are just so many of them, and so many different ways to project and predict. Do you focus on injuries and their likelihood? Do you focus on performance? Are you risk-averse and like veterans, or do you go for broke and get the young guys?

As usual, the best approach is probably to mix it up. Get an older, undervalued guy — could be Jered Weaver or Roy Halladay, depending on which ranker you ask. Get a hot young prospect — Jeff Samardzija, Marco Estrada or Matt Harvey perhaps? Get an injury risk — maybe Jake Peavy or or Brandon Morrow? And throw in a ground-ball dude with lower upside like Trevor Cahill or Tim Hudson for good measure. Hey, I don’t mind this mythical staff we’ve just created, and it wouldn’t be impossible to draft it.

But I wouldn’t expect much agreement on which pitchers are the best. We all once agreed that Roy Halladay was the best, and that didn’t really work out for us last year. So let’s discuss: who do you like?

(The projections are from Steamer and are not the sole basis for any ranking on this list.)

RotoG ES JZ MP ZS Name IP GS SO W ERA WHIP
1 3 2 1 1 Clayton Kershaw 211 30 217 15 3.23 1.17
2 2 3 2 2 Justin Verlander 224 31 210 16 3.5 1.19
3 4 1 3 6 Cliff Lee 217 31 196 15 3.28 1.11
4 1 4 4 7 Stephen Strasburg 169 28 191 13 2.91 1.12
5 5 5 6 4 Cole Hamels 211 31 195 15 3.47 1.18
6 6 6 8 8 Felix Hernandez 224 32 200 14 3.36 1.2
7 7 8 9 5 David Price 210 31 202 15 3.43 1.21
8 9 9 7 11 CC Sabathia 207 30 179 14 3.52 1.2
9 11 21 5 3 Matt Cain 207 31 169 14 3.82 1.24
10 8 10 13 22 Zack Greinke 193 30 179 14 3.25 1.17
11 10 7 11 25 Yu Darvish 199 30 202 14 3.76 1.31
12 13 13 15 12 Chris Sale 181 28 173 12 3.66 1.25
13 14 14 14 13 Madison Bumgarner 198 31 173 14 3.46 1.2
14 12 16 12 17 Adam Wainwright 204 31 167 15 3.5 1.23
15 20 11 10 21 James Shields 214 31 176 14 3.65 1.24
16 17 23 16 9 Jered Weaver 195 30 149 13 4.1 1.27
17 15 22 23 10 Gio Gonzalez 186 30 182 13 3.56 1.27
18 18 12 18 23 Max Scherzer 178 30 176 14 3.51 1.21
19 23 20 21 16 Roy Halladay 189 28 149 13 3.59 1.19
20 21 18 22 20 Mat Latos 192 30 168 13 3.91 1.27
21 19 15 28 30 Yovani Gallardo 187 30 173 13 3.73 1.27
22 25 26 17 26 R.A. Dickey 210 31 159 14 3.99 1.28
23 16 37 29 14 Kris Medlen 159 26 121 11 3.78 1.26
24 35 19 26 18 Ian Kennedy 198 31 162 13 4 1.27
25 27 31 27 15 Johnny Cueto 194 30 143 12 4.06 1.29
26 22 17 24 41 Matt Moore 186 30 187 12 3.87 1.32
27 24 30 40 19 Jordan Zimmermann 178 29 134 12 3.86 1.24
28 26 24 20 51 Tim Lincecum 179 29 164 12 3.78 1.31
29 32 28 25 37 Jake Peavy 166 26 132 11 4.04 1.25
30 38 42 19 40 Dan Haren 149 24 115 10 3.65 1.18
31 28 27 30 56 Jeff Samardzija 173 28 157 11 4.09 1.36
32 29 25 32 60 Jon Lester 194 31 159 13 3.92 1.33
33 41 49 33 24 Hiroki Kuroda 179 28 125 12 4.06 1.29
34 37 43 43 34 Josh Johnson 164 26 128 11 4.12 1.32
35 31 29 44 54 Brandon Morrow 159 26 142 11 3.98 1.31
36 49 45 37 28 Doug Fister 179 28 121 13 3.94 1.25
37 36 32 41 53 Tommy Milone 178 28 122 12 4.01 1.24
38 39 33 48 45 Anibal Sanchez 178 29 133 12 4.1 1.29
39 40 35 38 52 Jon Niese 175 28 137 11 3.79 1.27
40 46 44 39 38 Marco Estrada 139 24 120 10 3.93 1.27
41 42 50 42 39 Matt Harvey 148 25 139 9 4.02 1.35
42 44 41 35 57 Homer Bailey 170 27 129 11 4.13 1.29
43 33 73 45 27 Jeremy Hellickson 179 29 121 10 4.61 1.4
44 47 39 36 59 A.J. Burnett 186 30 148 12 3.9 1.33
45 43 36 57 46 Mike Minor 167 27 139 11 4.03 1.31
46 30 60 31 69 Aroldis Chapman 97 16 136 7 3.08 1.22
47 58 40 34 61 Matt Garza 160 26 136 11 3.85 1.27
48 50 51 50 44 C.J. Wilson 178 29 145 12 4.07 1.36
49 34 58 73 31 Jarrod Parker 181 29 130 11 4.32 1.38
50 48 34 47 81 Edwin Jackson 187 30 149 12 3.96 1.3
51 53 48 51 66 Ryan Dempster 169 28 130 11 4.26 1.37
52 62 38 65 58 Phil Hughes 170 28 128 11 4.28 1.3
53 55 52 52 67 Lance Lynn 147 24 130 10 3.78 1.3
54 51 56 53 70 Mike Fiers 135 24 113 9 4.12 1.31
55 52 47 69 72 Derek Holland 172 28 136 11 4.15 1.32
56 54 53 64 71 Josh Beckett 149 25 120 10 3.87 1.27
57 57 57 75 55 Wandy Rodriguez 179 30 119 11 4.27 1.35
58 56 65 54 74 Trevor Cahill 193 30 141 13 3.99 1.38
59 67 70 92 32 Ryan Vogelsong 164 27 125 11 4.24 1.37
60 65 68 58 76 Gavin Floyd 156 26 116 10 4.23 1.33
61 80 72 76 42 Hisashi Iwakuma 156 26 104 9 4.29 1.38
62 75 75 81 43 Wade Miley 164 27 114 10 4.33 1.36
63 60 64 68 84 Wei-Yin Chen 172 28 127 10 4.38 1.33
64 73 80 89 35 Matt Harrison 197 30 124 12 4.46 1.38
65 66 98 82 33 A.J. Griffin 126 22 84 8 4.26 1.31
66 45 109 46 80 Brett Anderson 123 20 81 8 3.92 1.31
67 70 127 55 29 Tim Hudson 160 25 94 11 4.08 1.37
68 78 100 59 48 Alexi Ogando 104 17 84 7 4.07 1.31
69 63 76 67 82 Jaime Garcia 138 22 102 10 3.71 1.28
70 86 77 93 36 Kyle Lohse 172 28 110 10 4.28 1.3
71 64 79 61 89 Dillon Gee 148 24 109 9 4.14 1.34
72 81 90 77 50 Alex Cobb 135 22 99 9 3.94 1.35
73 79 61 62 98 Joe Blanton 147 25 101 10 4.07 1.26
74 68 66 63 105 Felix Doubront 145 24 129 10 4.04 1.36
75 82 82 49 92 Jason Hammel 146 24 105 9 4.36 1.36
76 83 103 72 47 Erasmo Ramirez 135 22 83 8 4.46 1.35
77 103 84 56 65 Shaun Marcum 129 21 97 8 4.12 1.29
78 71 54 86 101 Bud Norris 145 24 119 9 4.28 1.36
79 69 101 74 73 Clay Buchholz 154 25 101 10 4.46 1.41
80 88 86 83 64 Brandon McCarthy 134 21 89 9 4.06 1.28
81 85 81 96 63 Jason Vargas 186 29 108 11 4.64 1.36
82 76 78 79 94 Bronson Arroyo 187 30 105 11 4.73 1.35
83 61 92 71 106 Johan Santana 120 20 92 7 4.26 1.33
84 59 67 95 110 James McDonald 158 27 128 10 4.28 1.38
85 72 71 94 96 Ervin Santana 177 28 119 11 4.42 1.38
86 91 62 91 99 Tommy Hanson 142 24 114 10 4.22 1.34
87 84 91 85 93 Ricky Romero 178 28 124 11 4.5 1.47
88 99 59 90 107 Chris Capuano 150 24 115 10 4.01 1.29
89 100 117 60 78 Shelby Miller 96 16 85 7 4.02 1.36
90 110 115 70 68 Andy Pettitte 113 19 82 7 4.23 1.35
91 98 89 97 86 Mark Buehrle 199 31 100 11 4.75 1.37
92 117 107 104 43 Wade Davis 139 22 97 8 4.57 1.43
93 102 97 80 103 Scott Baker 110 19 83 7 4.13 1.28
94 105 110 84 83 Dan Straily 114 19 92 7 4.25 1.36
95 94 87 130 75 Paul Maholm 170 28 107 11 4.18 1.35
96 92 74 98 123 Francisco Liriano 133 24 122 9 3.89 1.35
97 87 69 99 136 Justin Masterson 184 30 128 12 4.13 1.38
98 106 93 78 119 Ivan Nova 141 22 104 9 4.11 1.34
99 115 46 88 150 Ricky Nolasco 185 30 115 11 4.12 1.29
100 104 88 103 115 Brett Myers 150 25 83 9 4.69 1.4
101 101 83 109 120 Chad Billingsley 135 23 104 9 4.06 1.33
102 89 85 101 139 Edinson Volquez 145 26 127 9 4.1 1.41
103 95 126 110 87 Chris Tillman 120 21 85 7 4.73 1.43
104 74 63 114 172 Ubaldo Jimenez 169 28 133 11 4.49 1.43
105 116 102 113 97 Carlos Villanueva 114 16 95 6 4.05 1.33
106 77 122 147 88 Colby Lewis 89 14 68 6 4.23 1.28
107 121 129 87 100 Jeff Niemann 111 19 73 7 4.41 1.36
108 111 151 118 62 Chris Archer 86 14 72 5 4.74 1.52
109 124 95 126 112 Vance Worley 137 24 97 8 4.44 1.38
110 120 105 106 127 Zach McAllister 137 24 96 9 4.36 1.35
111 108 113 66 174 Andrew Cashner 91 15 86 6 3.54 1.28
112 142 131 107 95 Scott Diamond 155 26 81 9 4.43 1.38
113 90 151 144 91 Brandon Beachy 50 8 45 4 3.82 1.28
114 93 104 147 134 Juan Nicasio 118 21 90 8 4.23 1.33
115 147 124 102 109 Ted Lilly 113 19 77 7 4.49 1.35
116 114 111 147 111 Jeremy Guthrie 178 29 92 10 4.84 1.42
117 133 151 120 79 Mark Rogers 75 12 56 4 4.99 1.56
118 119 118 108 143 John Danks 135 22 85 8 4.7 1.4
119 123 108 105 152 Jordan Lyles 136 24 83 8 4.5 1.37
120 148 135 129 77 Ross Detwiler 139 25 89 9 4.41 1.38
121 107 99 111 174 Patrick Corbin 120 19 93 8 4.06 1.32
122 127 96 140 130 Clayton Richard 189 29 100 11 4.28 1.35
123 112 151 147 85 Drew Smyly 72 12 62 5 4.01 1.32
124 118 119 116 144 John Lackey 143 24 80 9 4.79 1.43
125 126 112 147 113 Scott Feldman 131 23 88 8 4.19 1.33
126 132 123 125 118 Kyle Kendrick 154 25 92 9 4.6 1.38
127 149 137 100 121 Jorge de la Rosa 113 20 77 7 4.7 1.44
128 139 130 124 116 Lucas Harrell 171 28 102 10 4.64 1.48
129 109 146 121 137 Trevor Bauer 83 15 76 5 4.4 1.45
130 97 151 132 138 Casey Kelly 72 14 50 5 4.11 1.34
131 113 94 147 174 Travis Wood 137 20 103 8 4.43 1.36
132 135 114 147 133 Wade LeBlanc 125 20 82 7 4.42 1.36
133 131 120 115 167 Rick Porcello 153 26 85 10 4.24 1.34
134 143 151 136 104 Jacob Turner 108 19 68 6 4.56 1.42
135 157 148 127 102 Miguel Gonzalez 106 18 74 6 4.66 1.4
136 140 141 112 146 Henderson Alvarez 161 26 86 10 4.02 1.36
137 122 106 143 174 Joe Saunders 184 29 108 10 4.51 1.36
138 141 151 147 108 Bartolo Colon 100 17 61 6 4.23 1.29
139 129 136 145 141 Barry Zito 167 29 98 10 4.91 1.48
140 136 125 141 151 Jhoulys Chacin 139 24 95 9 4.75 1.48
141 96 151 139 174 Cory Luebke 60 10 49 4 3.81 1.28
142 161 151 128 122 Mike Leake 70 10 48 4 3.99 1.29
143 161 151 135 117 Jose Quintana 109 20 65 6 4.83 1.45
144 130 151 131 157 Carlos Carrasco 113 19 72 7 4.53 1.4
145 146 151 147 125 Dylan Bundy 50 8 36 3 4.69 1.44
146 145 132 147 149 Bruce Chen 125 19 80 7 4.54 1.37
147 125 151 134 165 Julio Teheran 56 9 40 3 4.49 1.4
148 128 127 147 174 Daniel Hudson 97 16 72 6 4.2 1.31
149 156 151 138 131 Randall Delgado 95 15 74 6 4.46 1.45
150 144 151 147 135 Jake Arrieta 69 10 54 4 4.35 1.39
151 137 151 133 159 Nathan Eovaldi 124 22 84 7 4.6 1.46
152 161 151 123 147 Jake Westbrook 121 20 68 8 4.13 1.41
153 161 151 142 140 Joe Kelly 88 10 59 5 4.27 1.42
154 161 151 137 145 Tyler Skaggs 81 15 64 5 4.46 1.41
155 152 143 146 154 Aaron Harang 127 18 87 7 4.58 1.43
156 158 134 147 158 Luke Hochevar 120 19 84 7 4.14 1.34
157 151 128 147 174 Erik Bedard 101 18 79 6 4.36 1.38
158 138 142 147 174 David Phelps 86 10 67 5 4.12 1.34
159 150 140 147 164 Philip Humber 119 21 77 7 4.55 1.37
160 153 144 147 174 Josh Collmenter 93 6 70 5 4.08 1.3
161 154 145 147 174 J.A. Happ 97 11 80 5 4.31 1.4
162 155 147 147 174 Jeff Karstens 106 16 65 6 4.19 1.28

Pitchers ranked by one analyst: Zack Wheeler, Rubby de la Rosa, Michael Pineda, Anthony Bass, Zach Britton, Alex Sanabia, Freddy Garcia, Blake Beavan, Brian Matusz, Brad Hand, Drew Pomeranz, Brian Duensing, Jason Marquis, Tyson Ross, Martin Perez, Kevin Correia, John Lannan, Jeff Francis, Alex White, Wily Peralta, Ben Sheets (!), Christian Friedrich, Franklin Morales, Hisanori Takahashi, Brad Peacock, and Liam Hendriks.

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With a phone full of pictures of pitchers' fingers, strange beers, and his two toddler sons, Eno Sarris can be found at the ballpark or a brewery most days. Read him here, writing about the A's or Giants at The Athletic, or about beer at October. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris if you can handle the sandwiches and inanity.

24 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
jevant
13 years ago

Retired Ben Sheets got a vote? We must know from whom…

7
James
13 years ago

Any chance we will see a consensus ranking list based on keeper quality? Or a comparison of redraft league rankings and keeper rankings?

2
st
13 years ago

why no Jin-Ryu? where would he rank?

2
Johnson
13 years ago

Why are the projections so off?

0
Bob
13 years ago

I thought that all the stories about how RA Dickey gets no respect were piling it on a little thick, but I guess not… an ERA under 3 over the past 600+ IP, and it’s still not enough to be in the top 20.

2
Bluebird in Boulder
13 years ago

Consensus on Aroldis Chapman: *shrug*

-2
Jeff ZimmermanFanGraphs Staff
13 years ago
Reply to  Bluebird in Boulder

My take: http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/evaluating-aroldis-chapmans-value/

20-25

0
Xavier
13 years ago

ZS has Samardzija (59) behind Cobb, Ogando, Wade Davis, AJ Griffin – in this series I’m finding it hard to take his rankings seriously.

9
MJ 888
13 years ago

One serious question….where did the projections come from?! Jared Weaver a 4.10 era?! Really?!

1
James
13 years ago
Reply to  MJ 888

Steamer projections.

0
dacureMember since 2025
13 years ago
Reply to  MJ 888

Steamer is extremely pessimistic in my opinion. I haven’t used it much, but it seems to be the projection system of choice on FanGraphs so my guess is that it ranks better than it projects.

0
OscarGamblesAfro
13 years ago
Reply to  dacure

From my browsing of posts I would’ve guessed that ZiPS was the “projection system of choice” on fangraphs.

1
d_iMember since 2016
13 years ago

Color me surprised that T. Milone ranks ahead of his counterparts Parker and Anderson or anywhere near the top 40. I just traded him and feel relatively confident I sold high. Hard for me to trust a guy who tops out at 88 and will face the Rangers and Angels a lot – even given his home ballpark.

2
Eric
13 years ago

These are Steamer projections, which are curiously bearish on ERA and WHIP this year. I would love to know why. I guess a 1.24 for Matt Cain isn’t out of the question but its still pessimistic. Even the 1.17 for Kershaw…

0
James
13 years ago
Reply to  Eric

1.4 WHIP for Hellickson after he’s posted 1.15, 1.15, 1.25!

2
Mike PodhorzerFanGraphs Staff
13 years ago
Reply to  Eric

Steamer regresses a lot more than the other systems I believe, which is why you’ll see a lot of my outliers agree somewhat with Steamer, though not for Cain.

1
Dave
13 years ago
Reply to  Mike Podhorzer

Projection systems fail on pitchers like Cain whose underlying skills don’t match up to his elite ability to pitch. As a result, he will always outpitch his peripherals/projections. Cain just knows how to pitch. Definitely a top 10 starter and likely top 7

2
mockcarrMember since 2016
13 years ago

CJ Wilson looks low, ZIPS still likes him pretty well. It seems like some FA make the adjustments the second year of their deal, and that’s a good club and ballpark to rebound in.

0
dacureMember since 2025
13 years ago

Pod Projections seems to like Dan Haren a lot more than anywhere I’ve seen. Can I get a quick comment on the optimism after last season?

0
Mike PodhorzerFanGraphs Staff
13 years ago
Reply to  dacure

Aside from much fewer innings Steamer is projecting, looks like I’m in agreement with them in terms of ratios. Instead of spoiling it here, he’ll be included in one of the “My Guys” (or whatever title I come up with) post that identifies who I ranked much better than the other rankers at each position.

0
wynams
13 years ago

LuLz @ The guy who has Hughes over Lester

1
wynams
13 years ago

Oh its Zach … big shocker there … can we get a version of these without this ntac?

1
jt
13 years ago

how does ZS have brandon beachy ranked 83 spots ahead of cory luebke? does he have inside infor from their doctors or something?

2
Jason B
13 years ago

I can’t believe [player A] was ranked [number] spots behind [player B]!!! There is not a font size large or bold enough to adequately express my disdain and righteous indignation!! I will never take [ranker] seriously again, or value his opinions on any subject! *Wipes spittle from corners of mouth* I find it hard to believe a site that I esteem so highly would even consider employing [ranker] in any capacity besides shoveling the dog poo off of the walkway outside!!

0