Archive for Starting Pitchers

Ottoneu Starting Pitching Drip: May 8–11

Welcome back to the SP Drip. My goal for this bi-weekly column is to comb through the upcoming schedule each week to find a few under-owned pitchers (less than 50% ownership across Ottoneu) who could be used to help you hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues or to make sure you’re hitting your innings pitched cap in points leagues. Tuesday’s article will cover the weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday) and Friday’s article will cover the upcoming week (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday). That way, you’ll have time to start your auctions in time to actually drip these pitchers into your lineup.

Upcoming Schedule:

May 8–11
Home wOBA HR Park Factor Away wOBA
SEA 0.299 99 TEX 0.346
CLE 0.286 101 DET 0.285
PIT 0.335 95 COL 0.312
BAL 0.337 95 TBR 0.375
NYY 0.298 102 OAK 0.297
CHC 0.340 98 STL 0.324
KCR 0.292 93 CHW 0.296
MIL 0.315 103 LAD 0.344
LAA 0.334 107 HOU 0.302
ARI 0.326 94 MIA 0.303
SFG 0.329 90 WSN 0.297
CIN 0.304 116 NYM 0.316
PHI 0.329 106 TOR 0.324
ATL 0.353 98 BOS 0.351
MIN 0.312 96 SDP 0.318

Teams with favorable schedules next week include the Diamondbacks, Giants, Guardians, Nationals, Pirates, Rangers, Royals, Tigers, and White Sox

Teams with tougher schedules include the Astros, Blue Jays, Braves, Brewers, Cardinals, Mariners, Mets, Orioles, Phillies, Red Sox, and Reds.

Highlighted matchups:

Recommended Starters
Pitcher Roster% Opponent Opponent wOBA FIP K-BB% HR/9
Vince Velasquez 37.18% COL 0.312 3.79 14.6% 0.84
Jhony Brito 33.97% OAK 0.297 4.46 6.1% 0.79
Dane Dunning 16.03% SEA 0.299 3.31 7.6% 0.00
Michael Lorenzen 4.81% CLE 0.286 4.83 9.9% 1.29
Rich Hill 2.56% COL 0.312 5.34 12.9% 1.95
Peyton Battenfield 1.28% DET 0.285 5.89 3.9% 1.56

I covered both Vince Velasquez and Rich Hill in my last column on Tuesday as two guys who have been particularly good recently. The former made a start against the Rays yesterday and left after three innings with elbow discomfort. He said he was optimistic about the injury after the game but his status is clearly up in the air. If he’s healthy, he’s scheduled to take the mound against the Rockies at home on Tuesday. Monitor his status closely.

In that A’s-Yankees series there could be a couple of starters you could call on to take advantage of some weak offenses. Jhony Brito is scheduled to start Wednesday and he looked a lot better in his last start against the potent Rangers lineup; he threw five innings of two-run ball with five strikeouts against just one walk. There are a bunch of A’s starters who you probably shouldn’t trust, even against the weakened Yankees lineup. Plus there’s the complication of Aaron Judge potentially being activated from the Injured List early in the week. If you had to pick an Oakland starter, I’d go with JP Sears; he’s coming off six innings of shutout work against the Mariners.

The Guardians-Tigers series features two of the worst offenses in the league going head-to-head. Michael Lorenzen and Peyton Battenfield draw starts in the series and both are worth considering simply due to the lack of offensive quality they’ll be facing. The former is a pretty known quantity at this point in his career, but the Cleveland rookie features some promise even if the early results haven’t been pretty. Battenfield features a cutter that possesses a 38.2% whiff rate, a weapon that makes him a far more interesting flier than a veteran innings eater.

Hot Starters:

Strong Starters, Last Two Weeks
Pitcher IP FIP K-BB% HR/9 P/IP
Ryan Feltner 17 2.30 16.4% 0.00 6.32
Wade Miley 17 3.83 5.9% 0.53 4.37

I’d understand if you had completely missed out on the stretch of starts Ryan Feltner has put together recently. Over his last three turns in the rotation, he’s allowed just three runs while striking out 15 in 17 innings. Just one of those starts came at home in Coors Field and that’s really the sticking point with any Rockies starter. It’s a huge gamble to start them at home so you’re only really rostering them for half their appearances. At his peak, Germán Márquez was worth rostering; Feltner is definitely not at that point yet, but his stretch of solid starts makes him worth monitoring.

After tossing a seven-inning gem back on April 16 against the Padres, Wade Miley has followed it up with three solid starts including surviving Coors Field yesterday. The strikeouts aren’t there but he’s managing hard contact against him and isn’t walking anyone. He’s lined up to start against the Dodgers at home in his next turn through the rotation. If he can pass that test, he could be worth looking into to give your Ottoneu team some bulk innings.

Recap: May 1–4

Drip Retrospective
Player IP Pts Pts/IP
Domingo Germán 8.1 65.5 7.86
Kyle Gibson 6.2 11.0 1.66
Tyler Wells 6 -4.3 -0.72
Drew Smyly 7 27.9 3.99
JP Sears 6 42.0 7.00
Total 34 142.1 4.18
Season Total 335.2 1112.9 3.32

A pretty good week with two clear wins, another solid start, and just one clear loss. Domingo Germán looked dominant against the Guardians and his ownership rate has skyrocketed over the 50% threshold we’re working with. Tyler Wells actually looked pretty decent against the Royals, but he was undone by allowing three home runs, the only hits he allowed in his start.


The Weird and the Wonderful — Starting Pitchers Through May 2, 2023

Let’s finish up the week with one final look at the wackiest starting pitcher metric levels. Today, it’s all about the batted ball type distribution. Think grounders, liners, etc. Batted ball profile has a dramatic impact on performance, so it’s important to monitor, especially if a pitcher suddenly transforms into an extreme ground ball or fly ball pitcher.

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The Weird and the Wonderful — Starting Pitchers Through May 1, 2023

Yesterday, I shared our first set of weird and wonderful metrics for starting pitchers, digging into SwStk% and Hard%. Today, let’s continue the fun with some additional metrics.

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Ottoneu Starting Pitching Drip: May 5–7

Welcome back to the SP Drip. My goal for this bi-weekly column is to comb through the upcoming schedule each week to find a few under-owned pitchers (less than 50% ownership across Ottoneu) who could be used to help you hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues or to make sure you’re hitting your innings pitched cap in points leagues. Tuesday’s article will cover the weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday) and Friday’s article will cover the upcoming week (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday). That way, you’ll have time to start your auctions in time to actually drip these pitchers into your lineup.

Upcoming Schedule:

May 5–7
Home wOBA HR Park Factor Away wOBA
SEA 0.297 99 HOU 0.309
CHC 0.348 98 MIA 0.305
PIT 0.344 95 TOR 0.327
CIN 0.309 116 CHW 0.298
TBR 0.377 94 NYY 0.297
PHI 0.335 106 BOS 0.340
NYM 0.323 97 COL 0.304
CLE 0.289 101 MIN 0.317
ATL 0.342 98 BAL 0.333
KCR 0.276 93 OAK 0.305
STL 0.329 94 DET 0.279
LAA 0.330 107 TEX 0.342
ARI 0.322 94 WSN 0.299
SDP 0.319 98 LAD 0.336
SFG 0.330 90 MIL 0.315

Teams with favorable schedules this weekend include the A’s, Astros, Brewers, Cardinals, Cubs, Diamondbacks, Giants, Mets, Nationals, Rays, Royals, and Twins.

Teams with tougher schedules include the Angels, Blue Jays, Marlins, Orioles, Padres, Phillies, Rangers, Red Sox, White Sox, and Yankees.

Highlighted matchups:

Recommended Starters
Pitcher Roster% Opponent Opponent wOBA FIP K-BB% HR/9
Brad Keller 43.59% OAK 0.305 4.80 0.0% 0.30
Kyle Muller 38.46% KCR 0.276 5.48 3.6% 1.26
Ken Waldichuk 32.69% KCR 0.276 7.42 9.0% 2.90
Joey Lucchesi 8.33% COL 0.304 3.46 17.0% 0.73
Michael Lorenzen 4.49% STL 0.329 5.31 15.4% 1.93
Josh Fleming 3.21% NYY 0.297 2.97 8.9% 0.00
Yonny Chirinos 2.24% NYY 0.297 2.88 12.0% 0.00

There are three recommendations in that Royals-A’s series in Oakland this weekend. Brad Keller still hasn’t found his groove with his new breaking balls that he introduced this year, but the matchup and venue are just too good to pass up. Both Kyle Muller and Ken Waldichuk have been frequent inclusions in this column but neither has really pitched up to their potential yet. The Royals’ punchless offense is as good an opportunity to get their seasons back on track.

After sitting out most of 2021 and all of last year due to Tommy John surgery, Joey Lucchesi has been thrust back into the Mets rotation with all their injuries they’ve been dealing with. He’s made two starts so far and has looked pretty good; he shut out the Giants in seven innings in his first start and allowed three runs in 5.1 against the Nationals in his second. He’s lined up to start at home against the Rockies.

With Aaron Judge on the IL and the rest of the Yankees lineup really struggling to produce anything right now, it’s the perfect time to take advantage of this struggling team. This weekend, the Rays host New York and there are two starters who could make for nice drip candidates. Josh Fleming has worked as a long reliever for the most part this year. Make sure he’s actually listed as the starter and isn’t lined up to be the bulk pitcher after an opener. The same goes for Yonny Chirinos. He’s finally healthy after a long road to recovery after Tommy John surgery and a fractured elbow.

Hot starters:

Strong Starters, Last Two Weeks
Pitcher IP FIP K-BB% HR/9 P/IP
Vince Velasquez 19 2.71 22.4% 0.47 6.48
Rich Hill 17.1 2.81 18.9% 0.00 5.02
Yusei Kikuchi 17.2 3.28 24.20% 1.02 5.83

Now that we’re a little deeper into the season, I can point out some under-owned pitchers who have been throwing well recently who might not be making it into the recommended section above due to their matchups. I’m looking at data from the last 14 days to find these pitchers who are performing well.

The two Pirates starters have been phenomenal recently, part of the entire team’s fantastic month of April. Rich Hill continues to do his thing at 43 years old and has had a very nice run of three starts including a gem in Coors Field where he held the Rockies to just a single run in six innings back on April 17. I recommended Vince Velasquez for his start against the Nationals last weekend and he delivered a commanding performance. He’s now posted back-to-back shutouts in his last two outings. He looks like he’s in the middle of one of those hot streaks that remind us why he was so highly thought of as a prospect and why he’s continued to bounce around the league despite never really living up to his potential.

Yusei Kikuchi’s most impressive start came back on April 15 when he held the red hot Rays to just a single run in six innings. It seems like he’s gotten his control problems figured out while still racking up the strikeouts. His stuff is good enough that he could finally be breaking out five years after coming over to the US from Japan.

Recap: April 28–30

Drip Retrospective
Player IP Pts Pts/IP
Kyle Muller 5 11.7 2.34
Nick Pivetta 5 12.7 2.54
Dean Kremer 5 14.4 2.88
Vince Velasquez 6 38.4 6.40
Caleb Kilian 3.1 -5.3 -1.60
Total 24.1 71.9 2.95
Season Total 301.2 970.8 3.22

Velasquez’s start was the big win over the weekend but that was negated by the disaster of a start from Caleb Kilian in Miami. The rest of the slate was fine, not too bad but no clear wins either.


The Weird and the Wonderful — Starting Pitchers Through Apr 30, 2023

Let’s start talking pitchers. It’s time to move on to the wackiness that is starting pitcher metrics. So who is part of the weird and the wonderful as April’s books have closed? Let’s find out.

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Automated Fastball Velocity Increase Detection

Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

Using baseball-savant data and some Python code, I have written a script that will loop through a pitcher’s three most recent appearances and flag any pitcher who has shown an increase in their fastball velocity. In raw form, it looks something like this:

Increased Detection System Example
Name Third most recent Second most recent Most recent Most recent increase Second most recent increase Avg_change
Reynaldo López 98.1 98.4 99.2 0.81 0.25 0.532
Carl Edwards Jr. 93.1 93.1 93.9 0.81 0.03 0.422
Carlos Estévez 96.5 96.5 96.7 0.17 0.03 0.097
SOURCE: Statcast

Looking at the table above we can see that each of these three pitchers increased their fastball (“FF” in savant data) consistently over their last three appearances. Don’t believe me? You can check my work with Savant visualizations:

Reynaldo Lopez Velo Increase

While I wrote more specifically about the merits of paying close attention to game-by-game fastball increases, quoting many other studies and great pieces along the way, I won’t be writing about it again here. Instead, I’ll simply show you a list of the starters and relievers who have increased game-by-game average velocity on their four-seamers and hope that you can take it from there. Sure, you could scroll through stacks of player pages to find players who have increased velocity until the cows come home, or you could write some code that will detect those increases and flag those players for you. I chose the second way. If you find it useful, I’ll do it on a more regular basis. That’s it. This post is more about the data than the words:

Three Most Recent Appearances – FF Increasers
Name Third Most Recent Second Most Recent Most Recent Avg. Change
Colin Poche 90.5 92.4 93.1 1.3
Chris Sale 93.0 94.3 94.7 0.8
Anthony Bass 93.2 94.4 94.6 0.7
Evan Phillips 94.2 95.5 95.8 0.8
Tucker Davidson 91.2 92.4 92.6 0.7
Nick Martinez 92.0 92.9 93.0 0.5
Yu Darvish 93.5 94.3 94.7 0.6
MacKenzie Gore 94.1 94.9 95.2 0.6
Ian Kennedy 91.2 91.9 92.6 0.7
Gerrit Cole 96.3 97.0 97.2 0.4
Max Fried 93.5 94.2 94.3 0.4
A.J. Puk 95.0 95.6 96.0 0.5
Kyle Gibson 91.4 92.0 92.0 0.3
Craig Kimbrel 93.9 94.4 94.9 0.5
James Kaprielian 92.8 93.3 93.3 0.2
Giovanny Gallegos 93.0 93.5 94.1 0.6
Logan Gilbert 94.6 95.1 95.6 0.5
Bryce Elder 89.6 90.1 90.6 0.5
Rafael Montero 95.5 95.9 96.3 0.4
Richard Lovelady 89.9 90.3 90.6 0.3
Phil Maton 89.2 89.5 90.5 0.7
Trevor Richards 92.4 92.7 93.0 0.3
Patrick Sandoval 92.6 92.9 92.9 0.2
Emilio Pagán 94.1 94.4 95.7 0.8
Jeurys Familia 93.9 94.2 94.4 0.3
Reynaldo López 98.1 98.4 99.2 0.5
Carlos Carrasco 91.1 91.3 91.7 0.3
Tylor Megill 94.1 94.3 95.0 0.4
Matt Bush 93.2 93.3 94.7 0.8
Enyel De Los Santos 94.7 94.8 94.9 0.1
Drew Rasmussen 95.5 95.6 95.8 0.1
Brusdar Graterol 98.1 98.2 98.8 0.4
Carl Edwards Jr. 93.1 93.1 93.9 0.4
Carlos Estevez 96.5 96.5 96.7 0.1
SOURCE: Statcast

Ottoneu Starting Pitching Drip: May 1–4

Welcome back to the SP Drip. My goal for this bi-weekly column is to comb through the upcoming schedule each week to find a few under-owned pitchers (less than 50% ownership across Ottoneu) who could be used to help you hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues or to make sure you’re hitting your innings pitched cap in points leagues. Tuesday’s article will cover the weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday) and Friday’s article will cover the upcoming week (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday). That way, you’ll have time to start your auctions in time to actually drip these pitchers into your lineup.

Upcoming Schedule:

May 1–4
Home wOBA HR Park Factor Away wOBA
WSN 0.300 104 CHC 0.348
NYY 0.311 102 CLE 0.293
BOS 0.332 100 TOR 0.333
HOU 0.316 102 SFG 0.324
SDP 0.297 98 CIN 0.300
LAD 0.329 107 PHI 0.337
OAK 0.300 91 SEA 0.299
DET 0.272 93 NYM 0.322
TBR 0.374 94 PIT 0.338
MIA 0.301 93 ATL 0.343
CHW 0.292 108 MIN 0.312
KCR 0.270 93 BAL 0.331
STL 0.340 94 LAA 0.335
TEX 0.338 101 ARI 0.316
COL 0.300 111 MIL 0.323

Teams with favorable schedules next week include the A’s, Braves, Mariners, Mets, Orioles, Padres, Reds, and Tigers.

Teams with tougher schedules include the Astros, Blue Jays, Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Nationals, Phillies, Red Sox, Rockies, and White Sox.

Highlighted matchups:

Recommended Starting Pitchers
Pitcher Roster% Opponent Opponent wOBA FIP K-BB% HR/9
Domingo Germán 41.35% CLE 0.293 5.45 22.4% 2.42
Kyle Gibson 40.71% KCR 0.270 4.33 11.3% 1.05
Tyler Wells 38.46% KCR 0.270 3.85 19.0% 1.24
Drew Smyly 33.01% WSN 0.300 3.19 19.1% 0.64
JP Sears 12.82% SEA 0.299 5.64 21.8% 2.49

The Orioles visit the expansive ballpark in Kansas City and get to face the punchless Royals offense next week. There are two starters who I’m recommending: Tyler Wells and Kyle Gibson (again). The former has pitched particularly well this year and pitched a seven inning shutout against the Tigers a week ago. In his last start against the Red Sox, he struck out seven — a season-high — and allowed just two runs on four hits in 5.2 innings. Gibson has been a common recommendation in this column and he has continued to provide serviceable production when the matchup is right.

Outside of a seven run blowup in his first start of the season, Drew Smyly has pitched phenomenally this year. He took a perfect game into the eighth inning against the Dodgers a week ago and then held the Padres to two runs on four hits in five innings his last time out. A matchup with the Nationals should be a piece of cake after suppressing those two offenses.

The last two recommendations are pretty risky considering the number of home runs each of them has allowed. Still, both Domingo Germán and JP Sears sit within the top-20 in the majors in strikeout-minus-walk rate. Despite their issues with the long ball, they’re striking batters out and aren’t allowing too many free passes; that’s certainly a sign of better things to come for both of them. Of the two, I’d be more inclined to start Sears since his home ballpark is a haven for fly ball pitchers like him.

Recap: April 24–27

Drip Retrospective
Player IP Pts Pts/IP
Brad Keller 4 5.2 1.30
Jhony Brito 2.2 4.9 1.85
Kyle Gibson 6.1 42.4 6.69
José Suarez 5 -41.3 -8.26
Zach Plesac 5 15.0 3.00
Griffin Canning 5 22.3 4.46
Colin Rea 5 1.7 0.34
Total 33 50.2 1.52
Season Total 277.1 898.9 3.24

Woof. That start from José Suarez against the A’s was absolutely brutal. It completely wiped away any positive vibes from Gibson’s gem or Canning’s solid start. Brad Keller continues to struggle with his command, which means he’s bleeding points despite allowing just a single home run this year.

We’re a month into the season and the average points per inning pitched for the recommendations in this column sits at 3.24. That’s not great, but it’s not a disaster either. The 50% ownership threshold really puts a strain on the kinds of pitchers I’m able to include since Ottoneu has such deep rosters. Have these targets been helpful for you, dear reader, or do I need to be a little more discerning with my recommendations week in and week out?


Ottoneu Starting Pitching Drip: April 28–30

Welcome back to the SP Drip. My goal for this bi-weekly column is to comb through the upcoming schedule each week to find a few under-owned pitchers (less than 50% ownership across Ottoneu) who could be used to help you hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues or to make sure you’re hitting your innings pitched cap in points leagues. Tuesday’s article will cover the weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday) and Friday’s article will cover the upcoming week (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday). That way, you’ll have time to start your auctions in time to actually drip these pitchers into your lineup.

Upcoming Schedule:

April 28–30
Home wOBA HR Park Factor Away wOBA
TOR 0.326 105 SEA 0.303
MIN 0.306 96 KCR 0.272
DET 0.268 93 BAL 0.331
MIA 0.299 93 CHC 0.350
WSN 0.294 104 PIT 0.334
BOS 0.333 100 CLE 0.292
NYM 0.326 97 ATL 0.345
CHW 0.299 108 TBR 0.385
TEX 0.343 101 NYY 0.308
HOU 0.319 102 PHI 0.344
MIL 0.324 103 LAA 0.326
COL 0.301 111 ARI 0.318
OAK 0.302 91 CIN 0.298
LAD 0.341 107 STL 0.338
SDP 0.301 98 SFG 0.321
Giants-Padres play in Mexico City

I’ve started pulling current season data for team offenses to assess matchups rather than continue utilizing the rest-of-season projections. That means there are a bunch of teams who were projected to be good who are currently underperforming and vice versa.

It’s a pretty rough slate of matchups this weekend. It doesn’t help that the Giants and Padres are playing in Mexico City which is at a higher altitude than Denver. The ball should be flying in that short two-game series.

Teams with easier schedules include the A’s, Cubs, Orioles, Twins, Red Sox, Reds, and Royals.

Teams with tougher schedules include the aforementioned Giants and Padres and also the Angels, Astros, Brewers, Cardinals, Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Guardians, Mariners, Mets, Nationals, Rockies, White Sox. and Yankees.

Highlighted matchups:

Recommended Starting Pitchers
Pitcher Roster% Opponent Opponent wOBA FIP K-BB% HR/9
Kyle Muller 49.68% CIN 0.298 5.31 3.4% 1.14
Nick Pivetta 31.73% CLE 0.292 5.16 15.9% 1.83
Dean Kremer 9.30% DET 0.268 6.57 11.3% 2.55
Vince Velasquez 0.96% WSN 0.294 4.12 13.3% 1.03
Caleb Kilian? 0.32% MIA 0.299 4.17 11.1%
Kilian’s stats from FanGraphs Depth Charts projections

Despite all those poor matchups, there are a handful of starter’s I’m comfortable recommending. All three of the A’s starters scheduled to take the mound during their home series against the Reds fall below our 50% owned threshold. I’m recommending Kyle Muller again, but if you want to roll the dice with Ken Waldichuk or possibly even Drew Rucinski 루친스키, you could drip them into your lineups.

Nick Pivetta bounced back after a rough start against the Angels a few weeks ago. Last weekend, he held the Brewers to three runs in 5.2 innings, striking out seven and walking just one. He draws the Guardians at home this weekend and that should be a pretty easy matchup for him since Cleveland’s offense hasn’t really started clicking yet.

Dean Kremer followed up his gem of a start against the Nationals with a decent start against the Red Sox yesterday. He allowed four runs in 5.2 innings, striking out five. He did allow a pair of home runs which has been a huge issue for him. The Tigers simply aren’t hitting for power right now and the Orioles will be playing in cavernous Comerica Park. This is a matchup that should go the way his one against the Nationals did.

After two rough starts to open the season, Vince Velasquez has actually been pitching pretty well for the red-hot Pirates. He shut out the Cardinals and Reds and escaped Coors Field with just three runs allowed. Across his last three starts, he’s earned 6.7 points per inning pitched. He’s scheduled to start against the Nationals on Saturday.

The final recommendation is a little up in the air. The Cubs will need to call up a starter to take Jameson Taillon’s spot in the rotation this weekend but it’s a little unclear who it’ll be. Caleb Kilian or Adrian Sampson 샘슨 make the most sense with the former being listed on the Roster Resource Probables Grid. Whoever it ends up being, they’ll have a nice matchup against the Marlins in Miami.

Recap: April 21–23

Drip Retrospective
Player IP Pts Pts/IP
Tyler Wells 7 51.0 7.29
Kyle Gibson 6.1 42.4 6.69
Zach Plesac 5 15.0 3.00
Hunter Gaddis N/A
Bailey Falter N/A
Total 18.1 108.4 5.91
Season Total 244.1 848.7 3.47

Two clear wins from the two Orioles starters make this a pretty good week. Hunter Gaddis ended up relegated to long relief and then to the minors and Bailey Falter’s start was pushed back to today.


Starting Pitcher SwStk% Decliners – Through Apr 23, 2023

Yesterday, I identified and discussed the starting pitchers with at least 20 IP this season and last who have raised their SwStk% marks most. Today, let’s now look at the decliners, the pitchers who have suffered the largest SwSk% declines. We’re still in small sample size territory, but such significant declines are still worrisome, especially if paired with a velocity drop.

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Starting Pitcher SwStk% Gainers – Through Apr 22, 2023

It’s still quite early to evaluate outcomes like strikeout and walk rates, so let’s stick with underlying drivers of those metrics, like SwStk%. Typically, the higher a pitcher’s SwStk%, the better the pitcher and the lower the ERA, though obviously that’s not going to be the case 100% of the time since we’re ignoring walk rate. But SwStk% gains are almost always a good thing, as that should result in a higher strikeout rate, which means fewer balls in play and therefore fewer hits allowed. So let’s dig into the starting pitchers (with at least 20 innings pitched both this season and last season) that have raised their SwStk% most.

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