Archive for Starting Pitchers

Ottoneu Starting Pitching Drip: April 17–20

Welcome back to the SP Drip. My goal for this bi-weekly column is to comb through the upcoming schedule each week to find a few under-owned pitchers (less than 50% ownership across Ottoneu) who could be used to help you hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues or to make sure you’re hitting your innings pitched cap in points leagues. Tuesday’s article will cover the weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday) and Friday’s article will cover the upcoming week (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday). That way, you’ll have time to start your auctions in time to actually drip these pitchers into your lineup.

Upcoming Schedule:

April 17–20
Home wOBA HR Park Factor Away wOBA
SEA 0.318 99 MIL 0.322
BOS 0.331 100 MIN 0.317
DET 0.307 93 CLE 0.322
CIN 0.317 116 TBR 0.320
MIA 0.317 93 SFG 0.321
CHW 0.321 108 PHI 0.324
KCR 0.317 93 TEX 0.320
STL 0.329 94 ARI 0.321
HOU 0.335 102 TOR 0.335
COL 0.310 111 PIT 0.317
OAK 0.299 91 CHC 0.318
SDP 0.334 98 ATL 0.338
LAD 0.333 107 NYM 0.327
WSN 0.311 104 BAL 0.321
NYY 0.327 102 LAA 0.334
Team wOBA projected via FG Depth Charts

Its feast or famine this week. Easy schedules include the A’s, Cardinals, Cubs, Giants, Guardians, Marlins, Rangers, Royals, and Tigers.

A bunch of squads have a tough matchup to start the week including the Angels, Astros, Blue Jays, Dodgers, Mets, Padres, Pirates, Phillies, Reds, Twins, White Sox, and Yankees.

Highlighted matchups:

Recommended Starting Pitchers
Pitcher Roster% Opponent Opponent wOBA FIP K-BB%
Ken Waldichuk 47.76% CHC 0.318 4.24 14.2%
Michael Wacha 46.80% ARI 0.321 4.44 13.4%
Brad Keller 13.46% TEX 0.320 4.32 8.8%
Dean Kremer 11.86% WSN 0.311 4.28 11.5%
Matt Strahm 9.94% COL 0.330 3.92 18.3%
Hunter Gaddis 8.65% DET 0.307 4.68 14.1%
Peyton Battenfield 0.00% DET 0.307 4.55 11.0%
Stats projected via FG Depth Charts

There aren’t a ton of great matchups to recommend this week with a bunch of riskier plays if you’re desperate for innings or need to hit your games started cap. Michael Wacha has been a little overlooked in these columns in favor of his rotation-mates Nick Martinez and Seth Lugo, but Wacha’s actually been pretty decent in his two starts this year. Impressively, he held the Braves scoreless over six innings in his last outing with ten strikeouts. He’s lined up to start against the Diamondbacks in Arizona on Thursday.

Brad Keller continues to impress with his revamped breaking balls; Stuff+ loves both his slider (137 Stuff+) and curveball (114 Stuff+). The only knock against him has been his lack of control of those two pitches early on. Everyone has scrambled to pick up his teammate Kris Bubic, but Keller deserves some attention too. He just held the Rangers to a single run in 6.2 innings while striking out seven on Wednesday and he’ll get to face them again at home on Tuesday.

Matt Strahm has yet to allow a run in three appearances and two starts this year and as long as he’s getting a chance to contribute in the rotation, he’s worth considering dripping into your rotation. I didn’t recommend him for his start against the Reds in the bandbox in Cincinnati but he gets a really nice matchup against the Rockies at home on Thursday.

Ken Waldichuk has had a really rough start to the season, allowing 17 runs in 15 innings. To be fair, he ran into the Angels and the Rays for his first two starts and looked a bit better against the Orioles in his last outing. His ownership rate has dropped below 50% in Ottoneu as frustrated players have cut him loose. Still, he was ranked 86th on the 2023 Top Prospects list and looked promising during his cup of coffee last year. If you want to take a chance on him, he has a nice matchup against the Cubs at home on the docket.

There are a couple of Guardians starters worth mentioning for their matchup against the Tigers in Detroit. Hunter Gaddis looked great against the A’s a week ago but got crushed by the Yankees in his last start. Peyton Battenfield made his major league debut this week against those same Bronx Bombers and held them to just two runs in 4.2 innings. He was ranked 40th on Cleveland’s prospect list and fits their archetype of pitchers who have a deep repertoire with a strong breaking ball, but struggle with their fastball. Both would be pretty significant risks, but the matchup and venue are pretty favorable.

Recap: April 10–13

Drip Retrospective
Player IP Pts Pts/IP
José Suarez 4 4.6 1.15
Kyle Gibson 6.1 32.9 5.19
Dean Kremer 4.1 -12.5 -2.89
Bryce Elder 6.1 42.3 6.67
Chris Flexen 플렉센 2.1 -37.3 -16.00
JP Sears 5 6.6 1.32
Matt Strahm 5 35.6 7.12
Wade Miley 5 8.7 1.74
Total 38.1 80.8 2.11
Season Total 151.2 463.4 3.06

Three wins and two losses last week and a bunch of meh. Strahm continues to be a solid recommendation and Bryce Elder impressed again. The Chris Flexen recommendation was an ugly affair but he had been such a consistent, if unexciting, starter last year I thought it would work out against the Cubs. It didn’t. Despite struggling against the A’s in his start on Wednesday, I’m recommending another Kremer start as you can see above. Maybe he’ll be able to handle the Nationals this time around.


Ottoneu Starting Pitching Drip: April 14–16

Welcome back to the SP Drip. My goal for this bi-weekly column is to comb through the upcoming schedule each week to find a few under-owned pitchers (less than 50% ownership across Ottoneu) who could be used to help you hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues or to make sure you’re hitting your innings pitched cap in points leagues. Tuesday’s article will cover the weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday) and Friday’s article will cover the upcoming week (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday). That way, you’ll have time to start your auctions in time to actually drip these pitchers into your lineup.

Upcoming Schedule:

April 14–16
Home wOBA HR Park Factor Away wOBA
SEA 0.318 99 COL 0.310
DET 0.307 93 SFG 0.321
CIN 0.317 116 PHI 0.324
MIA 0.317 93 ARI 0.321
WSN 0.311 104 CLE 0.322
NYY 0.327 102 MIN 0.317
TOR 0.335 105 TBR 0.320
BOS 0.331 100 LAA 0.334
CHW 0.321 108 BAL 0.321
HOU 0.335 102 TEX 0.320
KCR 0.317 93 ATL 0.338
STL 0.329 94 PIT 0.317
OAK 0.299 91 NYM 0.327
SDP 0.334 98 MIL 0.322
LAD 0.333 107 CHC 0.318
Team wOBA projected via FG Depth Charts

A bunch of teams have easier schedules this weekend including the Braves, Cardinals, Diamondbacks, Giants, Mariners, Marlins, Mets, and Tigers.

Difficult schedules include the Angles, Brewers, Cubs, Nationals, Orioles, Rangers, Rays, Red Sox, Reds, Twins, and White Sox.

Highlighted matchups:

Recommended Starting Pitchers
Pitcher Roster% Opponent Opponent wOBA FIP K-BB%
Dylan Dodd 48.72% KCR 0.317 4.56 11.0%
Seth Lugo 47.12% MIL 0.322 3.89 15.6%
Nick Martinez 45.51% MIL 0.322 4.08 12.6%
Matthew Boyd 44.87% SFG 0.321 4.14 15.1%
Anthony DeSclafani 40.71% DET 0.307 3.95 14.1%
Jhony Brito 34.30% MIN 0.317 4.29 11.1%
Bryce Elder 23.40% KCR 0.317 4.08 11.8%
Zach Plesac 13.46% WSN 0.311 4.57 11.5%
Michael Grove 8.65% CHC 0.318 4.53 12.8%
Jake Woodford 0.64% PIT 0.317 4.63 7.7%
Stats projected via FG Depth Charts

Despite all the teams with bad matchups, there’s a full slate of recommendations this weekend. The two young starters from the Braves, Dylan Dodd and Bryce Elder, are scheduled to make starts in Kansas City against the Royals. The former had a rough outing against the Padres in his last start, allowing seven runs in 4.1 innings. The Royals should prove to be a much easier opponent. Elder just held the Reds scoreless over 6.1 innings in his start on Monday and hasn’t allowed a run in either of his starts this year.

The two Padres pitchers are creeping up in ownership since the start of the season and both are light recommendations against the Brewers. It’s not an obvious matchup to exploit since Milwaukee has actually been hitting pretty well to start the season, but it’s at home and both Nick Martinez and Seth Lugo have proven they can be counted on this season. The latter has been particularly impressive in his return to the rotation with another strong start coming against the Braves on Sunday.

Anthony DeSclafani turned in another solid start in his last turn through the rotation and he gets a really easy matchup against the Tigers in their huge ballpark. On the other side of that matchup, Matthew Boyd could be a bit more of a risky pick. He handled the Astros and Red Sox okay, allowing two runs in each of those starts, but he hasn’t been able to pitch out of the fifth inning yet. He’s allowed as many walks as he has strikeouts so the efficiency is still lacking.

Jhony Brito is lined up to make his third start of his career after capably handling the Orioles last weekend. He gets a tougher opponent in the Twins so this will be a pretty tough test for him. I’m recommending him anyway. Michael Grove did not fare well in his second start after impressing in his season debut; he allowed nine runs to the Diamondbacks on Sunday. He’ll get the Cubs at home in his next start and that’s a bit of a risk given the high home run park factor of Dodger Stadium. I’d understand if you wanted to wait and see how he performs this weekend before picking him up.

Recap: April 7–9

Drip Retrospective
Pitcher IP PTS P/IP
Mike Clevinger 5.1 14.7 2.75
Nick Pivetta N/A
Anthony DeSclafani 6.1 53.1 8.38
Bailey Falter 5 18.3 3.66
Brad Keller 5.2 31.1 5.49
Total 22.1 117.2 5.25
Season Total 113.1 382.7 3.38

A much better weekend after those terrible results during the first week in April. I count two clear wins and no losses. The surprise was Brad Keller’s performance against the Giants. The strikeouts weren’t there, but he held San Francisco to just three hits in 5.2 innings of work. That’ll play. Nick Pivetta’s start got pushed back to Monday, but he performed well against the Rays, shutting them out over five innings with six strikeouts and just two walks.


Starting Pitcher Fastball Velocity Decliners — Through Apr 9, 2023

Yesterday, I revisited the starting pitcher fastball velocity increasers. Today, it’s time to return to the starting pitchers who have suffered velocity declines. Any names that appeared in my first article will be skipped in the commentary. A reminder that velocity tends to increase as the season progresses, so it’s not necessarily time to panic just yet. However, since I’m only discussing the biggest decliners, odds are most, if not all, of these pitchers will fail to regain the velocity they showed last year.

Read the rest of this entry »


Starting Pitcher Fastball Velocity Increasers — Through Apr 8, 2023

We’re going to continue on reviewing fastball velocities as it’s one of the few metrics that actually mean something this early. Note that for whatever reason, velocity readings are all over the map for the same pitch by the same pitcher, depending on which source I’m looking at, so it makes it kind of impossible to know for sure how hard a pitcher is throwing. Hopefully, the relative numbers are correct, as in a 1.5 MPH increase from one source matches another source, even if the absolute velocities differ. With a second start under a bunch of pitchers’ belts, along with first starts by a number of pitchers, let’s review the increasers again. Any names that appeared in my first article will be skipped in the commentary.

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Starters Who Can’t Keep It Up

The pitch clock is one of the various rule changes implemented this season. Some pitchers were going to be affected more than others, but it was tough to know who exactly before the season started. Some names are starting to come to light with Carlos Carrasco blaming the lack of time between pitches for his velocity drop.

With most starters having one start under their belts, I decided to see who gained or lost velocity each time through the batting order compared to last season. Read the rest of this entry »


Ottoneu Starting Pitching Drip: April 10–13

Welcome back to the SP Drip. My goal for this bi-weekly column is to comb through the upcoming schedule each week to find a few under-owned pitchers (less than 50% ownership across Ottoneu) who could be used to help you hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues or to make sure you’re hitting your innings pitched cap in points leagues. Tuesday’s article will cover the weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday) and Friday’s article will cover the upcoming week (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday). That way, you’ll have time to start your auctions in time to actually drip these pitchers into your lineup.

Upcoming Schedule:

April 10–13
Home wOBA HR Park Factor Away wOBA
BAL 0.321 95 OAK 0.299
TBR 0.320 94 BOS 0.331
CLE 0.322 101 NYY 0.327
TOR 0.335 105 DET 0.307
MIN 0.317 96 CHW 0.321
TEX 0.320 101 KCR 0.317
PIT 0.317 95 HOU 0.335
LAA 0.334 107 WSN 0.311
CHC 0.318 98 SEA 0.318
ATL 0.338 98 CIN 0.317
PHI 0.324 106 MIA 0.317
NYM 0.327 97 SDP 0.334
ARI 0.321 94 MIL 0.322
COL 0.330 111 STL 0.329
SFG 0.321 90 LAD 0.333
Team wOBA projected via FG Depth Charts

Obvious favorable schedules include the Astros, Braves, Brewers, Dodgers, Rangers, and Orioles. There are also a handful of teams who are either playing tough opponents in pitcher friendly ballparks or against weaker teams in smaller venues; the A’s, Cubs, Diamondbacks, Mariners, Red Sox, and White Sox fall into this camp.

Bad matchups include the Cardinals, Guardians, Marlins, Mets, Nationals, Pirates, Reds, Rockies, and Tigers.

Highlighted matchups:

Recommended Starting Pitchers
Pitcher Roster% Opponent Opponent wOBA FIP K-BB%
José Suarez 41.99% WSN 0.311 4.31 13.2%
Kyle Gibson 23.40% OAK 0.299 4.23 11.9%
Dean Kremer 16.99% OAK 0.299 4.15 11.9%
Bryce Elder 14.74% CIN 0.317 4.00 12.3%
Chris Flexen 플렉센 12.50% CHC 0.318 4.51 10.0%
JP Sears 8.01% BAL 0.321 3.92 14.8%
Matt Strahm 4.49% MIA 0.317 3.96 18.5%
Wade Miley 4.17% ARI 0.322 4.38 8.4%
Stats projected via FG Depth Charts

The series between the Orioles and A’s features three different recommendations. Kyle Gibson has thrown two decent starts so far this year with an 8:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 12 innings. He introduced a sweeper late last year and it’s been featured pretty heavily in his pitch mix so far this season. Dean Kremer is a bit more of a risk, even with the weak opponent. He’s had spurts of success, particularly last year, and his first two opponents this season were pretty tough — the Red Sox and Yankees — but he’s also introduced a sweeper into his repertoire.

For Oakland, JP Sears is a repeat recommendation and Kyle Muller would have been but his ownership rate crossed over the 50% threshold this week. Sears struggled a bit in his first start against the Guardians, throwing 4.2 innings with eight hits allowed, one walk, and five strikeouts. Adam Oller is also lined up to start during this series and you’d have to take a pretty big leap of faith to consider starting him.

José Suarez and Matt Strahm fall into that camp of matchups in a dangerous ballpark against a weak team. The former ran into some trouble against the Mariners in his first start of the season but the Nationals pose a much weaker threat. Strahm threw four scoreless innings against the Yankees during his spot start on Tuesday. The lack of bulk is a concern as is the hard contact that went unrewarded in New York.

Bryce Elder was phenomenal in his spot start for the Braves on Wednesday, holding the Cardinals scoreless over six innings with six strikeouts. Atlanta’s rotation is a bit of a mess with two starters on the IL and Elder, Jared Shuster, and Dylan Dodd battling over who will get to stick in the big leagues once everyone gets healthy. Dodd and Elder certainly look more viable as major league starters and the latter has the benefit of a nice matchup early next week.

Recap: April 3–6

Drip Retrospective
Pitcher IP PTS P/IP
Kyle Muller 5.2 29.5 5.21
José Suarez 4.1 -5.3 -1.23
Nick Pivetta 5 7.6 1.52
Yusei Kikuchi 5 17.9 3.58
Zach Plesac 1 -24.1 -24.10
JP Sears 4.2 8.4 1.81
Kutter Crawford 4 -22.1 -5.53
James Kaprielian 5 10.5 2.10
Michael Grove 4 26.4 6.60
Josh Fleming 3 -2.8 -0.93
Total 41.2 46.0 1.10
Season Total 91 265.5 2.92

After a good start during the first weekend of the season, my recommendations last week were pretty brutal. I count two wins — Muller and Grove — with seven ugly losses including a ghastly -24.1 points from Plesac against the A’s and -22.1 points from Crawford against the Pirates. Ouch. I’m not not sure there are any solid lessons to be taken away from this group of really bad performances. I liked the matchups on paper, but sometimes pitchers throw stinkers against weak teams and you just have to roll with the punches.


Buy or Sell: First Start Wonders

The majority of MLB starting pitchers have still made just one start, but in your Ottoneu leagues (actually, in all your leagues), managers are making decisions about who to speculate on. Is that first great start a sign of the next Kyle Wright breakout? Or another Kyle Gibson (9.51 P/IP in his first start; 3.35 the rest of the way)? With just one start, it is hard to know who you can trust, but if you wait until you are sure, someone else will have grabbed these arms already. Who should you bid on and who should you pass?

Read the rest of this entry »


Starting Pitcher Fastball Velocity Decliners — Apr 5, 2023

Yesterday, I reviewed and discussed seven starting pitchers who enjoyed significantly increased fastball velocity during their first start compared to full season 2022 velocity.

Read the rest of this entry »


Ottoneu Starting Pitching Drip: April 7–9

Welcome back to the SP Drip. My goal for this bi-weekly column is to comb through the upcoming schedule each week to find a few under-owned pitchers (less than 50% ownership across Ottoneu) who could be used to help you hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues or to make sure you’re hitting your innings pitched cap in points leagues. Tuesday’s article will cover the weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday) and Friday’s article will cover the upcoming week (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday). That way, you’ll have time to start your auctions in time to actually drip these pitchers into your lineup.

Let’s get into it.

Upcoming Schedule:

April 7–9
Home wOBA HR Park Factor Away wOBA
CLE 0.322 101 SEA 0.318
CHC 0.318 98 TEX 0.320
PIT 0.317 95 CHW 0.321
SFG 0.321 90 KCR 0.317
TBR 0.320 94 OAK 0.299
ATL 0.338 98 SDP 0.334
MIL 0.322 103 STL 0.329
COL 0.330 111 WSN 0.311
LAA 0.334 107 TOR 0.335
ARI 0.321 94 LAD 0.333
DET 0.307 93 BOS 0.331
NYM 0.327 97 MIA 0.317
PHI 0.324 106 CIN 0.317
BAL 0.321 95 NYY 0.327
MIN 0.317 96 HOU 0.335
Team wOBA projected via FG Depth Charts

Favorable schedules include the Astros, Dodgers, Giants, Mets, Rays, Red Sox, Royals, and White Sox. You may be able to get away with playing starters from the A’s, Pirates, and Yankees since they’re playing tougher opponents in safer environments.

Lots more teams to avoid this weekend, including the Angels, Blue Jays, Braves, Brewers, Cardinals, Nationals, Padres, Reds, Rockies, and Twins.

Highlighted matchups:

Recommended Starting Pitchers
Pitcher Roster% Opponent Opponent wOBA FIP K-BB%
Mike Clevinger 38.46% PIT 0.317 4.59 13.2%
Nick Pivetta 31.09% DET 0.307 4.40 13.3%
Anthony DeSclafani 16.35% KCR 0.317 4.13 13.1%
Bailey Falter 8.97% CIN 0.317 4.22 16.1%
Brad Keller 6.41% SFG 0.321 4.34 8.7%
Stats projected via FG Depth Charts

It’s a pretty light slate of recommendations this weekend with so many teams playing tough matchups or in poor environments. Nick Pivetta shows up for the second week in a row. Monitor his first start of the season against the Pirates today to make sure the increased velocity on his fastball carries over from spring training.

There are two starters who could be nice pickups in that Giants-Royals series, one for each team. Anthony DeSclafani started on Monday and held the White Sox scoreless over six innings while striking out four. He was an effective starter back in 2021 but injuries limited him to just five starts last year. If he’s fully healthy, he could be a sneaky addition with an excellent home ballpark. Brad Keller made his first start of the season on Sunday against the Twins and looked okay. He only lasted 4.2 innings, walked four, and struck out six. He introduced two new breaking balls to his repertoire this spring, though the command issues could be an issue as he figures out how to locate them properly.

Mike Clevinger handled the Astros capably on Sunday, throwing five shutout innings with eight strikeouts. He limited his pitch mix to just his fastball and slider and the latter generated a 44% whiff rate. That breaking ball lost a ton of effectiveness last year and it’s a big reason why he struggled so much in San Diego. He’s got a nice matchup against the Pirates in Pittsburgh to continue building off that early success.

Bailey Falter is a bit more of a risk since Citizen’s Bank Park is a very hitter friendly venue. The Reds offense isn’t good but the combination of opponent and ballpark still isn’t ideal. Falter threw 5.1 innings in his first start of the year, holding the Rangers to two runs on seven hits, striking out three.

Recap: March 30–April 2

Drip Retrospective
Pitcher IP PTS P/IP
Aaron Civale 7 49.6 7.09
Spencer Turnbull 2.1 -9.5 -4.09
Matthew Boyd N/A
Kyle Muller 5 29.6 5.92
Nick Martinez 7 27.9 3.99
Michael Wacha 6 11.5 1.92
Kyle Gibson 5 21.4 4.28
Seth Lugo 7 43.1 6.16
Marco Gonzales 5 5.1 1.02
Jhony Brito 5 40.8 8.16
Totals 49.1 219.5 4.45

As a way to keep myself accountable and just because I’m curious, I’ll be showing the results of my recommendations throughout the season.

Civale, Muller, Lugo, and Brito were pretty clear wins while Turnbull, Wacha, and Gonzales big losses. Looking back, it was probably too early to recommend Turnbull before he had even made a regular season start after his injury. Since these recommendations ran a week ago, Civale has cleared the 50% owned mark which is probably warranted. His stuff is pretty good and he was the recipient of some pretty bad luck last year. It was surprising to see seven strong innings from Lugo in his return to the rotation after spending so much of his career in the bullpen. If he continues to provide that kind of bulk with solid ratios, he needs to be owned in a lot more leagues.


Starting Pitcher Fastball Velocity Increasers — Apr 4, 2023

While it’s far, far too early to evaluate the majority of statistics generated during the season so far, there are a few that already provide meaningful information. One of those data points is pitcher velocity. All else being equal, a faster fastball could work wonders for a pitcher’s performance, while a slower fastball could either signal an injury or a decline in results. It’s never too early to check in on starting pitcher fastball velocities, even after just one start. So let’s identify the starting pitchers with the biggest jumps in fastball velocity versus 2022.

Read the rest of this entry »