On Saturday, I checked in on the National League starting pitchers whose SwStk% suggests a strikeout rate surge may be coming next season. Today, I will identify the pitchers whose SwStk% suggests the opposite side of the coin, those whose strikeout rate may be in for a decline next year. As a reminder, the league average is a 7.3 K/9 and 8.6% SwStk%.
On Wednesday, I compared American League starting pitchers’ strikeout rates and SwStk% marks to determine who may be in line for a K/9 surge next season. Today I perform the same exercise, but for the National Leaguers. As expected, the league average is slightly better, as starters have averaged a 7.3 K/9 and 8.6% SwStk%.
Looking at what’s available this weekend, perhaps it should be titled “steaming” weekend starters because there’s slim pick’ens to be had. Still, there are some interesting options for you should you be in panic mode for wins and strikeouts, a mode in which the author of this post resides in at least two leagues. So let’s get to it.
Yes, Steve Johnson. Johnson, who slogged through the minors for the past eight years, seemed to finally put it together in AAA in 2012 with a 2.86 ERA and a 8.5 K/9. He gave up just 66 hits over 91 innings pitched at AAA, striking out 86 batters. He was called up to Baltimore mostly to serve as a reliever where he’s been quite effective — throwing 16 innings, giving up just 7 hits and striking out 21 batters. But he’s also been used as a spot starter, making three starts and he’s been equally good. In those starts, he’s thrown 17 innings, given up 12 hits (10 singles), and struck out 22. His main bugaboo (oh, Mom I blame you for that word) is the free pass as he’s walked 15 batters over his 33.1 innings pitched and he’s had a history of control issues throughout the minors.
The offseason is nearly upon us. And for those of you not fighting it out in the championship, it’s important to be aware of some of the offseason’s important story lines. Obviously, everyone will pay attention to the major signings. By the time FanGraphs+ comes out, you’ll all already be aware of Josh Hamilton’s new home, or whether Zack Greinke will remain in LA. While second-tier signings can sometimes to easy to forget, they can also lead to significant value in fantasy leagues. The free-agent pitching market isn’t necessarily filled with superstars. There are many players that have experienced success throughout their careers, but come with question marks. Still, if these players end up in the right situations, they could have big time value for your fantasy team.
Every so often, I take a look at the SwStk% leaders and compare those marks to the pitchers’ strikeout rates. Since the two metrics are highly correlated, for obvious reasons, a high SwStk% that does not match up with a corresponding strikeout rate may suggest a surge is imminent. Here are a couple of pitchers whose Swstk% hints at strikeout rate upside for next year. Keep in mind however that SwStk% itself will vary year to year and so this assumes a similar level. For context, the league average for American League starting pitchers with a minimum of 120 innings pitched this year is a 7.0 K/9 and 8.5 SwStk%.
Neither of these pitchers are tremendous long term candidates for rotation spots, but with the season winding down speculating on a potential quality start could earn you just enough to win your league. Two guys I like this week are Andrew Werner of the Padres and Tyler Cloyd of the Phillies. Both have decent strikeout rates in a small number of innings, so there is a chance they help even if they blow up. While those are not quite the words you want to hear when you are anticipating picking up a late season starter, it does at least raise their downside bar a tiny bit.
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In a special edition of the deep league waiver wire, I identify some pitchers who are widely available and have a decent matchup next week. It’s your last chance to gain ground in wins and strikeouts, though of course you must consider the potential damage to your ERA and WHIP.
After looking at Chris Carpenter’s 2012 debut yesterday, today I will look at two other pitchers that made their 2012 debuts this past week, Jake Odorizzi and Jorge de la Rosa
Chris Carpenter debuted on Friday night. He came away with decent results, 5 IP, 2 Runs allowed, 0 HR. Chris is usually a fantasy workhorse, but shoulder surgery has all but eliminated his 2012 season. He looks to have limited value as a streaming option this next week and has some question marks to be answered for 2013.
The big red flag that is waving over him is the drop in velocity for all his pitches. His sinker, which he threw 31 times, is down about 3 MPH from 2010 and 2011.
On Monday, I took a look at the five pitchers whose ERAs are most below their respective SIERA marks. Today, I check in on the opposite side of the ledger, those pitchers whose ERAs are most above their SIERAs. These are the pitchers that SIERA would classify as the unluckiest, and might be undervalued in next year’s drafts.
