Derek Holland is starting to figure things out. After four up-and-down seasons, the 26-year-old lefty is pitching like a top-of-the-rotation starter. Holland has always shown the ability to surprise, but what he’s done this year is even more unexpected. Through 49.2 innings, Holland’s 2.40 FIP ranks ninth among qualified starters. Even when you adjust for his home run rate, Holland’s 3.28 xFIP says his performance is legit. Holland is relying on the same five pitches he’s used his entire career, but he’s utilizing the slider more often. The result of that change has been driving Holland’s success this season.

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Cole Hamels has been among the finest starting pitchers going on six seasons now. In fantasy baseball terms, during that time span, Hamels has been a beast in most formats. He’s 7th overall in wins with 82, second in WHIP with a stingy 1.13, and 6th in strikeouts with well over 1100. And in the last two seasons, he’s seemingly taken his game to a new level, compiling 9 wins over replacement between 2011-2012. But so far this year, his results haven’t been what owners have been looking for. A 4.40 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, and a 7.49 K/9 rate are all well behind his career averages.

Is he hurt? Is he on the path to mediocrity? Did he fake his birth certificate?

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We’re starting to get on a roll in this corner of the internet now, with a 60% success rate overall and back-to-back weeks going 3-for-4. We also haven’t had a blow up in two weeks, meaning at the very least I haven’t been destroying your teams.

Let’s jump right into it – we have a Friday/Saturday set with 27 probable pitchers owned in less than 50% of ESPN leagues, giving us a deep pool to select from. But are there any arms worth trusting?

Dan Straily (3.5% owned) – No love for my guy? I’ve held Straily since draft day in the league I care about the most (small cash but big bragging rights among friends, including a trophy). While he’s rewarded me with 21 strikeouts in 16.2 innings, he’s posted just one quality start and a 5.94 ERA. Fortunately, a 2.94 FIP, 3.12 xFIP, and 5.25 K:BB ratio all lie below that unsightly ERA, making him a solid add while he remains in the rotation. Even better, Straily draws the Mariners at Safeco Field. The Mariners walk less than almost any other team and also sport just a .298 wOBA against righties. Buy, buy, buy.
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Today is southpaw day apparently, as a trio of lefties get newsed and noted, two of which are named Scott. Is there another left-handed Scott pitcher I should have included instead of Hector Santiago?

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Patrick Corbin was supposed to be a back-end starter. On a team that featured Randall Delgado and Tyler Skaggs in the minors, Corbin was thought to be a temporary solution in the rotation. Someone who wouldn’t embarrass himself until better prospects were ready. But a month into the season, he’s been the Arizona Diamondbacks best starter. Corbin’s 2.97 FIP ranks him 10 among National League starters. He’s already made a case to stick in the team’s rotation once the youngsters are ready. While some regression seems inevitable, Corbin is well on his way to a breakout season.

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Tiptoe along the deep league waiver wire,
Search for a player you want to hire,
With the hope that he catches fire,
Gives you a performance in which you won’t tire,
And is featured in a story by Rob Neyer

::takes a bow:: Thank you, thank you very much. That was my practice round as an aspiring poet. How does my RARP (rhyming above replacement poet) rank?

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It looks like Roy Halladay is done — at least for a while, as he is expected to hit the disabled list with a shoulder problem — but the real question is if he is Done. He’s about to turn 36 and he’s aching in the worst body part for a pitcher. Just how bad is this news?

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Dan Straily| Oakland Athletics | @ Seattle on Friday

Maybe it’s just me, but it feels like Dan Straily has been around for awhile. In reality, he’s still very much a prospect. He made his tenth major league start yesterday and has just over 50 career big league innings. And he’s a good prospect. He displayed good strikeout and walks skills throughout the minors, especially in the upper minors. His BB% was under 8% in stops at A+, AA, and AAA, and his K% was above 30% in about 150 innings of work at AA and AAA. Read the rest of this entry »

Kevin Slowey was an afterthought this offseason. After signing a minor-league deal with the Miami Marlins, all but the most dedicated Marlins’ blogs neglected to write up the signing. In fairness, Slowey hadn’t pitched much in each of the last two seasons. A stress fracture in his rib cage ended his 2012 season after just eight minor-league starts, and he spent a fair part of 2011 in the minors. There was a legitimate question over whether Slowey would ever reach the majors again, let alone be an effective pitcher. But seven starts into 2013, Slowey has re-established himself as a bonafide major-leaguer. Though some regression is in store, Slowey’s landed in the perfect situation for a pitcher with his skill-set.

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Last week I looked at early season velocity gainers and losers. It was noted that the average fastball velocity so far is down league wide from where it was in 2012 but fairly consistent with the average fastball velocity in April 2012. But some commenters suggested that it might be useful to look at the April 2012 velocities of the guys who have seen the biggest gains and losses in velocity this year. The idea is to see if the discrepancy between 2012 velocities and April 2013 velocities is an indication of a change or just evidence that a guy tends to see his velocity dip or rise at the beginning of the year.

To gather a sample, I created a list of guys who threw 150+ innings last year and who had at least 20 innings this April. That yielded me a list of 70 pitchers. To find the significant changes in velocity, I calculated the differences in average fastball velocity between all of 2012 and April 2013. I then calculated the average difference and standard deviation to see who had made the biggest changes. Below are the guys who saw the biggest gains in velocity in April. Read the rest of this entry »