Thanks to two excellent researchers, we have two different pitcher xBABIPs nestled within the posts on this site.

Matt Swartz has an xBABIP that’s part of SIERA. He was nice enough to re-run it with all pitchers with 40 innings pitched or more for 2003-12. He did not adjust for usage by weighting pitchers with high IP more heavily, but he did regress BABIP using factors that his research has shown to influence the number. His pitcher xBABIP formula is:

BABIP = .290 + .045*GB% – .103*K%.

Steve Staude used batted ball data to find a pitcher xBABIP in the Community Blog a while back. Of course, the weakness of a model using line drive percentage is the fickleness of that stat from stadium to stadium and year to year, but it does make a lot of sense intuitively: give up fewer frozen ropes and you’ll give up fewer hits. His regression led him to the following pitcher xBABIP formula:

xBABIP = 0.4*LD% – 0.6*FB%*IFFB% + 0.235

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On Wednesday, I dove into the recently published Bill James projections and examined how they compared with the actual performances of some of this past season’s biggest surprises on the hitting side. Today I check into some of the most surprising starting pitchers of the year.

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On Monday, I looked at the top hitters according to the recently added Bill James Handbook Projections. Today, I will see how the projection system sees the pitchers performing this season.

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In 2009, Ricky Nolasco was the poster boy for performing well below your predictors. His ERA ended at 5.06 while his FIP suggested 3.35. This disparity was in large part due to his high strikeouts and modest walk rate which collided with an abnormally low strand rate and piles of hits allowed. He was a classic buy low kind of guy in fantasy circles, with most expecting a major improvement in 2010.

Nolasco did improve, but not by a whole lot. And what’s happened since then is he has continued to underperform his FIP, and yet he has very much declined in performance. This can be summed up pretty quickly:

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Here’s a quick recap of the whirlwind last 12 months or so of Jeremy Guthrie’s life, and you tell me which of these items seems to jump out at you the most:

• 1) After five years with the Orioles, was traded to Colorado in February in a deal that initially didn’t seem to make sense for either side
• 2) Missed nearly a month of time after injuring himself in a bicycle accident in April
• 3) Pitched so badly for Colorado that even though their rotation was easily the worst in baseball, he still couldn’t keep his starting job and was sent to the bullpen in June
• 4) Was traded to Kansas City in July for the equally-as-disappointing Jonathan Sanchez
• 5) In two months for Kansas City, suddenly became a shockingly effective starter
• 6) Somehow turned that stretch into a three-year, $25 million contract to remain with the Royals through 2015

For me, it’s that last point that immediately stands out. Three years! For the age-34-to-36 seasons of Jeremy Guthrie! You might say that it’s another case of “Dayton Moore being Dayton Moore”, and you might be right, but with the way the market seems to be going in the world of inflated television money, that might just end up being the going rate for someone of Guthrie’s skill. That’s terrifying to accept, though it’s part of a conversation that is far larger than just Jeremy Guthrie. Read the rest of this entry »

There were quite a few reasons to be concerned about Hiroki Kuroda last season. At age-37, he was reaching a point where few pitchers are able to remain at the top of their game. He was also moving from the NL West to the AL East, and a home ballpark that is friendly to hitters. Despite all of those concerns, Kuroda was masterful once again. Over the past three seasons, Kuroda has been as consistent as they come. Kuroda’s good for a mid-3.00 ERA, with solid strikeout, and low walk, totals. While that level of consistency is uncommon with a player of his age, the now 38-year-old pitcher hasn’t shown any signs of decline just yet.

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David Price was awfully good in 2012. So good, that he earned himself some hardware which has been hotly debated in recent days. Fortunately, I’m not here to contribute to that conversation (argument). I’m simply here to wonder if we’ve yet to see the best from Price, and if not, what we might reasonably expect in his follow up to a career season.

Looking back over the last twelve American League Cy Young winners, it appears that it’s more the norm to underperform your Cy standard. This is far from scientific, it’s merely an observation, and a small sample observation at that:

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So as you all no doubt know by now, Josh Johnson was part of the trade of fantasy baseball proportions that is expected to be finalized at some point today. It’s time for JJ to start trading in his dollars for loonies and toonies and switch sides when debating whether to blame Canada. Let’s figure out how the move to the American League and now calling the Rogers Centre home will affect Johnson’s performance.

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Yesterday, the Royals acquired Ervin Santana and cash from the Angels for minor-leaguer Brandon Sisk. Our own Dave Cameron extensively covered the deal from the real world perspective. The change in scenery does look to change Santana’s value for the worse, but regressing back to the his previous production level will be the main key for his fantasy value going forward.

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If you hit 26 homers and lead your league in basically every offensive stat from your position, but no one notices, does it still make a sound? That twist on the classic thought problem seems to apply to Arizona’s Aaron Hill, who bounced back from two consecutive disappointing seasons to become the second-best second baseman in baseball in 2012, both by WAR and Zach Sanders’ end-of-season fantasy rankings. The hype, however, including an All-Star snub, never seemed to follow.

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