Finally, we get to the starting pitchers, my favorite position. If you thought there was room for disagreement among the outfielders, you ain’t seen nothin’ yet. The many disagreements of value among starters and the multitude of later round sleeper options is precisely why my strategy in every single draft/auction I participate in is to pay the least for my staff or wait many a round to draft my first starter. For this last episode of Pod’s Picks, I will only look at those I ranked in the top 84 as bullish picks, while the bearish group will include those in the consensus top 84. I went with 84 assuming about seven starters per team in a 12-team mixed league would earn positive value.

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A couple weeks ago, I covered C, 1B, 2B, and SS. Since then, I have also shared my rankings spreadsheet. Today, we cover 3B, OF, SP, and RP.

The lessons are going to remain pretty similar – guys with high walk rates rank higher, guys with a lot of speed rank lower – and will extend to the pitching sphere nicely – closers lose some value, guys projected for close to 20 wins lose some value, pitchers who keep the ball in the yard gain value. But it is still informative to look position by position and see where the differences manifest.

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Last week I looked at a few underrated and overrated position player prospects. This week I wanted to follow that up by doing the same thing with some pitching prospects. The rule with prospects is always caveat emptor as they can’t typically be counted on for consistent production or performance. Still, “hitting” on a few helpful guys your league opponents didn’t expect to be useful can lead your team to fantasy glory.

Remember that these players are being evaluated entirely for their 2013 usefulness, without regard to keeper or dynasty implications.

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Last week was all about the consensus ranks. This week, you’ll see some tiered ranks as we also try to finish up the depth chart discussion. But before we move on too quickly, I thought it would be interesting and informative for me to pick out the players that I liked and disliked more than the other analysts involved in the consensus ranks. Hopefully I’ll have a short, concise reason for my rankings in each case. Hopefully.

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It’s so tempting when discussing the Reds rotation to gloss over the front end in favor of Aroldis Chapman. He’s definitely the dominant storyline with this team, but whether he becomes a dominant starter is far less clear. Thankfully for the Reds, they aren’t counting on him to lead the rotation, just to fall in behind Johnny Cueto and Mat Latos, who are underrated as a top-of-the-rotation pair. There are a few pairs I like better – Clayton Kershaw/ Zack Greinke and Stephen Strasburg/Gio Gonzalez chiefly among them – but the Reds are hardly wanting for quality with those two.

Projected Rotation

Johnny Cueto
Mat Latos
Aroldis Chapman
Homer Bailey
Bronson Arroyo

Waiting in the Wings

Mike Leake
Tony Cingrani
Armando Galarraga Read the rest of this entry »

In what is likely my last Pod Projection post of the year (my eBook teaches you how to forecast players yourself!), Johnny Cueto wins the honor of finishing up the series. Cueto has posted sub-3.00 ERAs two years running now, despite all ERA estimators sitting significantly above those marks. Great fortune (skill?) in the three “luck” metrics we analyze is the explanation for his ERA estimator beating ways. Can it continue?

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The pitcher rankings! My favorite. There are just so many of them, and so many different ways to project and predict. Do you focus on injuries and their likelihood? Do you focus on performance? Are you risk-averse and like veterans, or do you go for broke and get the young guys?

As usual, the best approach is probably to mix it up. Get an older, undervalued guy — could be Jered Weaver or Roy Halladay, depending on which ranker you ask. Get a hot young prospect — Jeff Samardzija, Marco Estrada or Matt Harvey perhaps? Get an injury risk — maybe Jake Peavy or or Brandon Morrow? And throw in a ground-ball dude with lower upside like Trevor Cahill or Tim Hudson for good measure. Hey, I don’t mind this mythical staff we’ve just created, and it wouldn’t be impossible to draft it.

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Next stop on the Pod Projections train is last year’s breakout starter Chris Sale, who spent his first season in the White Sox rotation. While I cannot claim credit for expecting him to be that good, I was a huge fan heading into the season. But after a more human second half that included a 4.03 ERA and a significant innings increase, what should we expect as a follow up?

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Projected Rotation

Matt Garza
Jeff Samardzija
Edwin Jackson
Scott Baker
Scott Feldman

Waiting in the Wings

Travis Wood
Arodys Vizcaino
Casey Coleman
Michael Bowden

Rebuilds happen. Eras end, the great players leave or retire, and the team has to move on. The goal of any front office is to prolong periods of dominance as long as possible and to shorten the inevitable rebuilding phase. The Cubs haven’t been to the playoffs since Barack Obama won his first presidential election and haven’t won a playoff game in nearly a decade, so it seems fair to say that the Cubs are in that rebuilding phase. The question now is how much longer they’ll be there. Read the rest of this entry »

It’s been over a week since I shared my last Pod Projection, so let’s get back on the saddle. Easily tallying the second highest number of votes was Max Scherzer. Clearly, Scherzer set your heart aflutter when he posted that 2.69 ERA in the second half. Funny, it was just the luck pendulum swinging the other way, rather than any change in skills, as his xFIP was very similar in each half. On to the projection we go.

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