Perhaps I should have written this piece last week. Because last week, Justin Masterson had a sub-two ERA and people were talking about him and his new approach against lefties. Then again, this week he still has a 2.25 ERA and he’s ostensibly the same person. That’s the whole problem with believing in him, though — he’s still the same person.

In order to believe in change in an established pitcher, I want to see something change. Velocity. Pitching mix. Pitch usage. The quality of a pitch. First-pitch strikes.

I see none of these changes in Masterson, and least not at a level that would make me interested in a mixed league.

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Andrew Cashner | San Diego Padres | @ Cubs on Wednesday

Cashner is your typical young flamethrower who racks up strikeouts but struggles with control. In 130 career innings, he has a 25% K% and 10.5% BB%. In eight career starts he has a 25.7% K% and 4.4% BB%. That’s probably a small sample size anomaly, but there’s a chance that the windup suits him.

But Cashner has another skill beyond just the strikeout ability; he gets a ton of groundballs. His career ground ball rate is 51.3%. If he can keep that rate up as a full-time starter, he’ll join some pretty elite company. In the last ten years, there have only been three pitchers with a full season of 24%+ K% and 50%+ GB% at the age of 27 or younger. Those three were Jon Lester, Francisco Liriano, and David Price. Read the rest of this entry »

The rookies are taking over. After a handful of major-league starts, Tony Cingrani and Shelby Miller have exceeded early expectations. While they were never compared to each other in the minors, both pitchers are succeeding utilizing an extreme fastball-heavy approach. Both players currently rank in the top-10 in four-seam usage, and would have ranked second and third last season. Even though hitters know exactly what’s coming, they haven’t been able to touch either pitcher thus far. The popular thought is that starting pitchers need three offerings in order to succeed in the majors. The track record of pitchers who utilized just two offerings makes it tough to find comparables for Miller and Cingrani.

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Intuitively, it would make some sense for velocities to be down to begin the year. Pitchers may still be building arm strength and finding their feel. But surfing around player pages early in the season, I noticed what seemed to be an abnormally high number of guys with velocity down from where it was last year. As it turns out, velocities are down a smidge. The average four seamer velocity last year was 90.66 and is only 90.48 so far this season. However, the average velocity in April last year was 90.39. So there’s probably some truth to the idea that velocities will rise as a season progresses.

However, there are still a few starters this year that have seen their average velocity come in way below where it was last year. I compiled a list of 70 pitchers who threw 150+ innings last year and all qualified pitchers so far this season. I then compared their average velocities. Below is a list of the guys who have seen a decrease in velocity that is one standard deviation or more above the mean. Read the rest of this entry »

Looking at the pitching waiver wire this week, the top two most-added names are newly-minted closers Jose Valverde & Edward Mujica, which is unsurprising. The third, seeing a whopping +40.2% add rate in ESPN leagues and 24% raise in start rate in CBS leagues, is none other than Pittsburgh’s Wandy Rodriguez.

I get why, of course. You look at the surface-level stats and they seem impressive. 2-0 in four starts! 16/3 K/BB! 1.66 ERA! What’s not to like?
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Another mixed bag with the streamers this past week. If you avoided the Kazmir/Humber showdown, good for you, as it wasn’t pretty. I apologize. If you rode with me on Jarrod Parker and Bronson Arroyo, you came out alright, as they both looked stellar in their respective outings. Not to make excuses, but last weekend’s Friday and Saturday streaming options were straight-up terrible, though being 6-for-12 through three weeks probably hasn’t won me any ardent followers regardless of weekend.

Still, onward we move, to our Friday and Saturday streamers for this week. As always, I’ll try to hit the 50/25/15/5 ownership levels, though some weeks won’t allow for it. This week is one such week where we’re going deep streaming, because the middle-ownership names like Jake Westbrook and Josh Beckett don’t offer a tonne of upside if they’re available.

As for the start-quality metric I’ve been toying with, I’m still playing with it. So far results haven’t been very conclusive, likely because a) starts are a bit fickle/random anyway, and b) we’re dealing with early-season, small-sample values for opponents. I’ll keep playing with it.

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Left-handed pitcher Adam Morgan entered the 2013 season as one of the top arms in the Philadelphia farm system. I got a chance to see him pitch for triple-A Lehigh Valley last week when they visited Pawtucket.

The Breakdown

Morgan was a 3rd round pick (120th overall) in 2011 out of the University of Alabama. He had an up and down college career but showed enough to entice the Phillies to give him $250,000 after his Junior season. Morgan has impressed as a professional. His pro career was punctuated by a strong showing in the Florida State League last season. In 123 innings in the FSL for high-A Clearwater the southpaw struck out 140 batters while only allowing 103 hits and 28 walks. Morgan even ended the year with double-A Reading. Six good starts there apparently convinced the Philadelphia organization that he was ready for triple-A.

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We’re three and a half weeks into the season and nearly at the point where the first major pitching metric stabilizes. We know that K/PA (or K% on the player pages) stabilizes at 150 batters faced, and starting pitchers are creeping ever so closer to that minimum. So at the very least, we have to start taking strikeout rates seriously, but that’s really about it. Let’s now take a look around the American League and some of the movers and shakes in starting pitcher land.

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Last week I briefly touched on some guys who had been getting raked across the coals in the BABIP/LOB% department, making their raw stats look like something out of a horror film. This week I’ll take a look at the flip side; guys who have sparkling ERAs, but looking under the hood implies that your nice new sports car might not be purring quite as well as you had hoped. Just remember, it’s very early and a lot of the underlying peripherals haven’t stabilized yet; we’re just looking for guys we don’t want to make the mistake of overpaying for.

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Yes, it’s still quite early, but I simply cannot help myself from analyzing my favorite advanced pitcher metric — the swinging strike percentage, or SwStk%. The majority of starting pitchers have only started three or four games, but a metric like SwStk% stabilizes relatively quickly, so the typical small sample size caveats don’t necessarily apply to the full degree. The following five pitchers have enjoyed the largest surge in SwStk% as compared to last year. Let’s see if they are doing anything differently, or if it just seems to be a good run.

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