Young pitching is killing it this year. My staffs, full of Matt Harvey, Shelby Miller, Jose Fernandez and David Phelps are treating me very well right now. From one standpoint, it makes a lot of sense to plan this kind of staff. The work done by Bill Petti and Jeff Zimmerman shows that, as a pitcher, you’re busy dying as soon as you’re born. So get the younger pitchers!

The problem is the lack of track record. In the case of two hot young things, we’re left with one start and a decision. When it comes to a redraft at least — in dynasties, those dudes are long gone.

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By this point in his career, it’s been pretty well-established that Doug Fister is an above-average starting pitcher in Major League Baseball. He’s compiled a 3.16 ERA (129 ERA+) over 432.2 innings the past three seasons, and since his trade to Detroit, he has proven his sudden transformation in early 2011 was not just a outgrowth of pitching in cavernous Safeco Field.

Fister is valuable in all fantasy formats because he provides above-average rate statistics (ERA and WHIP) and pitches for one of the best offenses in all of baseball, which should allow him to accumulate plenty of wins. And although his strikeout rate is below-average, it’s not so far below-average that owners are sacrificing one category for the benefit elsewhere.

With that said, owners seeking to upgrade a beleaguered fantasy rotation would be wise to target the 29-year-old right-hander in coming weeks. He already has solid numbers this season, as evidenced by his 3.62 ERA and 4.78 strikeout-to-walk ratio. His fantasy numbers, however, are lagging behind his actual performance. Fantasy owners can realistically expect improved performance from Fister throughout the rest of the season, which means he could be a legitimate value-buy right now.

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Francisco Liriano’s been kicking around the big leagues since 2005, and there’s really just never been middle ground with him. Here’s a fun trivia question: how many times has he had a seasonal ERA that starts with a four?

The answer: not even once. In parts of seven seasons headed into 2013, Liriano’s had an ERA in the five range four different times. Twice he’s been in the threes, and once, way back in that magical breakout of 2006, he finished the year at 2.16.

That makes him appealing because the talent is clearly there, but also an enormous risk, to the point where many fantasy owners just avoid him entirely. If he succeeds for someone else, the thinking goes, fine, but just as long as he doesn’t crater your team.

Based on his history, that’s not entirely unfair. Yet here we are, staring at a 25/6 K/BB and two earned runs in three starts as a Pittsburgh Pirate, and Liriano demands our attention once again. Proceed at your own risk.

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You got a bonus pick last week and we still killed it overall. Edwin Jackson was the only ho-hum start, posting a decent ERA but failing to strike many batters out or secure a victory. The rest were on point, though, so let’s try and ride that momentum for what might be the final edition of “Stream Aim Fire” before we move to a new format. As always, I aim for 50/25/15/5 ownership wherever possible (this week it wasn’t, really).

I also want to note quickly that if the Arz/SD series were in Petco, I’d be rolling with Stults, McCarthy and Cashner. As it is, though, it’s going to be nearly 100 degrees at Chase Field, pumping up the likely run scoring environment for that series. Chase has been uncommonly friendly so far but won’t be as things heat up.

A.J. Griffin (49% owned) – The strikeouts are down a bit and the walks up a bit from his stellar rookie season, but Griffin is still a decent fantasy option. The decline in ground ball rate is also of some concern, as is the ridiculous 24.1% line drive rate. So why stream a 4.20 FIP given all of these negative indicators? In a word, Astros. The Streamin’ ‘Stros continue to be an effective strategy (and unfortunately the Marlins don’t provide us with any options for Friday and Saturday), as they have a below-average wOBA and a well above-average strikeout rate. Last time he faced Houston, he posted 8 strikeouts in six innings, allowing eight baserunners and just a pair of runs. Dial it up again.

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I had heard a lot of varied opinions about Pittsburgh Pirates pitching prospect Gerrit Cole over the last couple years so I was glad of the chance to finally lay eyes on him live this week. It’s clear he has tremendous stuff and a talented arm. Whether Cole ever becomes the kind of pitcher who can lead the Pirates staff back to the playoffs or not remains to be seen.

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In his first two full seasons with the Rays, Jeremy Hellickson has perplexed the saber-nerds. How does a guy who has posted pretty weak strikeout rates, walked more batters per nine than the league average and has allowed more fly balls than grounders manage to prevent earned runs like he’s one of the best pitchers in the American League? The answer is actually pretty simple — he stranded runners at league leading rates and avoided hits on balls in play like a champ.

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Here at RotoGraphs, we receive a lot of would you trade/drop questions from readers. In response, we figure an article focusing on which players we are buying or selling might be helpful for the readership. So, let’s give this a shot. Let us know what you think in the comments.

Fantasy owners should have a decent grasp on their team by May. At this point in the year, sleepers have had a month to show they were worth a draft pick, and older players have shown signs of decline. While not perfect, both BABIP and FIP/xFIP can give you an idea of whether certain performances are sustainable going forward. On top of evaluating their own teams, fantasy owners can target buy-low players from other teams, making a move that will greatly impact the outcome of their leagues. Andrew Cashner and Marco Estrada may have gotten off to different starts, but neither player should be valued based strictly on their performances this season.

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It has been 40 starts for Jake Peavy since the start of 2012 and his ERA is right at 3.35. While that is a far cry away from his Cy Young caliber seasons in the mid-2000’s, his consistency and reliability has really propelled him to become an undervalued fantasy asset over the past two seasons. Since there is always a fear of injury around Peavy, prospective owners are sometimes weary to pull the trigger or draft Peavy, but I think that makes Peavy a great buy at this point.
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Yes, the sell highiest. The easiest way to identify buy low and sell high candidates among starting pitchers is to export the advanced tab of the leader board into Excel and then simply subtract the pitcher’s SIERA from his ERA. Sort and voilà, you now have your list of pitchers who are most outperforming and underperforming their SIERA marks. Of course, you shouldn’t blindly take that list as gospel, as some pitchers have proven that they can consistently post ERAs higher or lower than their SIERAs. But it’s the quickest way to generate a list of names for further analysis.

After performing this exercise, Matt Moore was not the biggest SIERA outperformer. But, given his name value and preseason draft cost, he is the one most worth shopping. He currently ranks eighth among all qualified starters in ERA outperformance, with a 4.11 SIERA versus a 2.29 ERA. While that alone should make him a sell high candidate, there are additional warning signs beneath the surface.

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We’re coming to an end of the series! We’ve pushed the consensus bullpen ranks over to the Bullpen Report guys, so they’ll have that to you soon. But for these four rankers, this episode is drawing to a halt. You can find all the updated ranks on your right, linked in that helpful little box.

The ranks, and the comments, have provided us with content for the coming weeks. Thank you for communicating which players are the most divisive. That allows us to know exactly which players we should be breaking down, RotoGraphs style. Add to that our timely coverage of players in the news, and we’re set.

Pitching changes on a dime though. While hitters give us their customary four or five plate appearances in a game, pitchers give us roughly five times that information every time they appear. So it’s fair that we break down every appearance for them and weight recent work heavily. And yet, every pitcher has a baseline, and we know how luck, park and weather factors can influence any one matchup. So we have to keep their careers in mind.

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