Yesterday, I used my xBB% equation to identify starting pitchers whose actual walk rates were most above their expected marks. This group should be expected to enjoy a decline in their walk rates moving forward. Today I check in on the guys who may be due for regression. This is your list of fantasy relevant starting pitchers whose xBB% marks are most above their actual walk rates.
We have some fancy tools here at FanGraphs, but sometimes brute force works just as well. In fact, Glenn DuPaul found once that strikeouts minus walks beat the ERA predictors at their own game.
Maybe it’s no surprise. That’s the heart of the game, getting outs and keeping people off the basepaths. And maybe sometimes this other stuff is just pyrite. Just because you get a lot of ground balls doesn’t mean you won’t give up home runs. Even if you have a limited arsenal, if you can get strikeouts and limit the walks, you can have success. So focus in on the Ks and the BBs.
Let’s make a list.
Last week, I used my expected strikeout rate equation to identify the starting pitchers whose actual strikeout rates are most below their expected marks. Today, I’ll look at the other primary skill metric — a pitcher’s walk rate. I developed an expected walk rate equation as well and still use essentially the same one now, unlike the xK% formula which I had since tweaked. The walk rate equation isn’t as good as the strikeout rate one, but it’s the best I have seen out there.
In at least one way, Travis Wood was fantastic last season. He pitched to a 3.11 ERA over 32 starts and 200 innings. However, Wood was a source of great skepticism entering the 2014 season. His .248 BABIP and mediocre 2.18 K/BB ratio signaled possible regression. Moreover, he’s a fly ball pitcher in a park that doesn’t usually favor fly ball pitchers (except in April). His HR/FB ratio was low at 6.9 percent.
These things happen every year. Last Thursday, I wrote about my renewed roto affinity for Edinson Volquez and how the Pittsburgh Pirates seemed to be rescuing him. (Jeff Sullivan did a better job of quantifying some of the real improvements in the wild northpaw’s game a day later.)
It’s fun when the subjects of comeback stories are useful fantasy players as well. Your opponents are waiting for what they perceive as overdue corrections to burn you. You’re wondering how much longer you should ride this wave of unbelievable fortune. Bartolo Colon is texting these dudes to welcome them to the club.
Given his top prospect pedigree and strong minor league results pre-2013, Tyler Skaggs was already a trendy sleeper heading into spring training with his new American League ball club. Then reports hit that Skaggs’ fastball velocity was way up and suddenly he was no longer just a potential undervalued asset, but a legit breakout candidate. And so far with a 3.21 ERA and 1.11 WHIP, his performance has been everything us owners could have hoped for. Except that the way he has achieved such performance is nothing like we expected. Meet the new Tyler Skaggs.
When I’m determining what I’m going to spend on players during my leagues’ FAAB runs, I think about the long term. We all do, right? In my experience, however, most fantasy players tend to base their bids on the here and now: The players on hot streaks fetch the most dollars. The exceptions include recently named closers and promoted prospects of great esteem, among others, but you get the idea.
I’ll talk more about FAAB strategy in future columns, I’m sure, but I wanted to plant the seed: Bid according to what kind of returns you figure to receive from the player for the rest of the season, regardless of recent performance. A player’s latest feats can factor in a little, sure, especially if characteristics of them indicate skills growth. In the latter instance, though, you’re already wisely influenced by possible long-term gains.
Shelby Miller looked broken after his first two starts of the year. Though it’s tough to overreact to just two starts, Miller did come with some concerns entering the season. After struggling down the stretch in 2013, and disappearing in the playoffs, Miller saw his fantasy draft stock take a tumble in late-March. After two straight tough games to open the year, it looked like those concerns were legitimate. But things took a turn in the right direction the last two times he’s taken the mound. Miller has given up one run over his last two outings with 14 strikeouts. While it’s just two starts, there’s some evidence that Miller might be alright moving forward.
I asked twitter if I should write about Dallas Keuchel, Marcus Semien and Jonathan Schoop, or Brad Miller, and they spoke definitively: what’s going on with Brad Miller? So I wrote up Brad Miller and then I discovered that Blake Murphy had done the same. So he might include some of my charts and analysis, he might not, but we were too similar.
And I start again, with the second-most requested topic: Dallas Keuchel, come on down!
Another week, another crop of injuries open up spots for two waiver wire candidates. Me thinks there’s a pattern here. As we snorkel amid the waiver wire waters, our first contestant is no stranger to deep league fantasy owners, though his awful 2013 made him persona non grata in the vast majority of formats entering the season. Meanwhile, a Tommy John snakebite has opened up a spot in the Yankees rotation, potentially opening the door for an intriguing left-hander to aid fantasy owners.