Danny Espinosa & Vidal Nuno: Deep League Waiver Wire
Another week, another crop of injuries open up spots for two waiver wire candidates. Me thinks there’s a pattern here. As we snorkel amid the waiver wire waters, our first contestant is no stranger to deep league fantasy owners, though his awful 2013 made him persona non grata in the vast majority of formats entering the season. Meanwhile, a Tommy John snakebite has opened up a spot in the Yankees rotation, potentially opening the door for an intriguing left-hander to aid fantasy owners.
Danny Espinosa / 2B / Washington Nationals
2 percent Yahoo / 1.2 percent ESPN / 10 percent CBS
Coming into 2014, the biggest fantasy impact Espinosa seemed primed to make was to block Anthony Rendon from getting regular playing time. Well, now that Ryan Zimmerman is hurt and Rendon is minding the store at third in DC, Espinosa is back to getting ABs, and he’s making the most of it — hitting .288/.339/.481 entering Tuesday’s play. He hasn’t provided too much help with counting statistics, belting just one home run with no steals and only a handful of runs, but was a fantasy producer not too long ago, averaging 19 homers and 18 steals between 2011 and 2012, before losing his luster in a nightmarish 2013 campaign.
Despite Espinosa’s hot start, he’s still dogged by the weaknesses that have always limited his value. The solid average is being fueled by a .378 BABIP despite an average line drive rate, and the marginal plate discipline improvements he’s shown haven’t been nearly enough to prevent him from putting up a 25 percent strikeout rate, which will only help sink his average even further once the BABIP levels out. Thing is, Espinosa doesn’t have to magically transform into a contact hitter to help fantasy owners, particularly ones in deep leagues, and if some BABIP luck and support from his manager help him regain his confidence, then we’re still talking about a middle infielder who could help in several important categories. He’ll start at second base at least through May, and hey, if Ian Desmond continues to have problems at shortstop — his two errors on Monday gave him nine for the yearn– there’s the possibility he could see some time at shortstop. Either way, Espinosa’s upside and position scarcity should make him an attractive option in most deep mixed leagues during his hot streak.
Vidal Nuno / SP / New York Yankees
1 percent Yahoo / .3 percent ESPN / 4 percent CBS ownership
Here’s where things get dicey, as Nuno has no value without a rotation spot — the status of which wasn’t clear when this post went to the digital press Monday night. But he turned in a solid five-inning performance against the Rays on Sunday, his first start of the season, and could take the ball against the Angels in the Bronx on Saturday when Ivan Nova’s spot in the rotation next comes up.
What makes Nuno, 26, so interesting is his fabulous minor league numbers, which boast a better than 5 K/BB ratio, a 1.10 WHIP and an 8.6 K/9 over 428 innings. Last year, he was positively sparkling over five Triple-A starts and pitched well in three big league starts, though a groin injury in June ended his season prematurely. On the other hand, he doesn’t throw all that hard — his fastball barely touches 90 mph — and he doesn’t keep the ball on the ground often enough for a guy who calls Yankee Stadium home. Not to mention the scheduled return of David Robertson on Tuesday gives the Yankees’ bullpen some breathing room, which might prompt Joe Girardi to slot David Phelps and his 23 career starts into Nova’s role, with Adam Warren a more distant candidate. A decision to keep Nuno in the rotation would also leave Matt Thornton as the only left-handed reliever in the Yankees pen at the moment.
But the upside of Nuno, a guy who’s had success in the minors and thus far in the majors thanks to solid control, shouldn’t go unnoticed by deep-leaguers. Even if he’s not the Yankees’ immediate answer in Nova’s absence, it’s worth putting his name on the board as a possible AL-only league addition.
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Karl, a journalist living in Washington, D.C., learned about life's disappointments by following the Mets beginning at a young age. His work has appeared in numerous publications, and he has contributed to the 2014 and 2015 editions of The Hardball Times Annual. Follow/harass him on Twitter @Karl_de_Vries.
Nuno is pretty interesting, because I can see the Yankees going with him for a while since they’ve gotten so much out of their other four starting pitchers. Although the Yankee fan in me would love it, I doubt they go for a big arm in the trade market – much easier and cheaper to give the ball to Nuno if he can provide quality.
I’m buying Espinosa as a MI in a ton of leagues. He’s already been incredibly valuable in ottoneu points formats– very small sample size but his walk to strikeout rate is much more reasonable and he’s getting the sort of hits that actually help his BABIP rather than the junk he was hitting in 2013 with a wrist injury.
I think he ends up being a sneaky good buy in most formats by the end of the year. The Nats lineup is fragile in more ways than one and a new manager is going to find ways to get guys who are hitting into the lineup. He’ll cool off considerably, but I bet he stays on the 25 man roster the rest of the season.
Espinosa or Brad Miller ROS?
Andy,
Tough question, but to give you a straight answer, I’d take Miller. Yeah, his playing time is potentially at risk with Nick Franklin available, but while he has similar homer/steal potential compared to Espinosa (minus the track record), he was supposed to be more competent in the batting average department. Any look at Miller, however, should include a stop by Blake and Eno’s outstanding analysis posted earlier today (http://tinyurl.com/lhjjecs).
Hope this helps.
Karl
Callaspo, Espinosa, or LeMahieu in a 5×5 OBP league? Callaspo has been hitting in the middle of the order, but he has a tough home park. LeMahieu has a better park, but he’s been hitting 8th in front of the pitcher (which helps his OBP but not the counting stats). Espinosa seems like more of a wild card. More power, good lineup, but higher downside risk and potential OBP difficulties.
First, I’m digging the Odorizzi pun. Second, my rankings:
1. LeMahieu, due to his ability to draw walks and steal bases, which I suspect will still add up despite hitting at the bottom of the order, as you correctly point out;
2. Callaspo, who’s a steady option despite few steals and a career .110 ISO;
3. Espinosa, who likely won’t have a guaranteed full-time job come June, will be damaging in the OBP department and still needs to prove that he’s shaken off his awful 2013.
Thanks, man.
Karl
Thanks for responding! I had Wong as my primary 2B, but between his slow start and now losing at-bats to Mark Ellis, I needed to cut bait. I also asked Eno, and he said Callaspo, so I went that way for now. I’ll still keep an eye on LeMahieu though.
BTW, there are so many good player name puns to be made right now. So many. 🙂
Desmond has made 9 errors, not 11. Not much better, but hey. He has enough errors already without people adding more.
You’re correct on all counts. Thanks for pointing that out.
Karl