I’m in a big money league that has no innings cap or start limit, which makes the race for the strikeouts and wins categories a feverish one. Finding a league average starter on the waiver wire is no small task given the lower-than-normal replacement level in this particular league. Last week I considered Chase Anderson’s viability but was outbid for him by a FAAB-hoarder. This week I want to find out if J.A. Happ (2% owned) is worth adding. Read the rest of this entry »

We call it The Change, but in today’s case, we might have three instances where change looks like it’s happened… but it hasn’t. Is it possible that Carlos Carrasco, Shelby Miller and Trevor May have the same pluses and minuses they’ve always had?

In fact, that’s more likely than change. As much as we look for it.

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Last week, our own math samurai Jeff Zimmerman published the results of his latest xBABIP equation for pitchers. While this is useful and ripe for analyzing, keep in mind that Jeff noted he had “not tested it with pitchers to see if the data correlates better season-to-season than regular BABIP”. So we’re still not sure how well the formula works, but it’s still interesting enough to investigate. We’ll start with those pitchers who have thrown at least 50 innings as a starter and have underperformed their xBABIP marks. This won’t be a straight biggest underperformer list, but a cherry picked one of the more interesting names.

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Let’s talk. This is the last tier rankings update of the season and I wanted to take this opportunity to explain how these rankings transport from my brain to these virtual pages of typed letters. Judging by your comments on these very rankings each month, it’s clear that you take these seriously. That’s a good thing, as it confirms that what we do here is truly helping you, or at least you would like what we do to be helping you.

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Welcome back my friends to the show that never ends
We’re so glad you could attend
Come inside! Come inside!

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A couple of weeks ago, I released an updated list of hitters and their xBABIP values. After it was released I got a request for the pitcher xBABIP values. The xBABIP values are generated by using the hard hit batted ball data from Inside Edge. I have gone ahead and run the values and listed them below with some comments on a couple starting pitchers.

A few notes on the data. First, I have not tested it with pitchers to see if the data correlates better season-to-season than regular BABIP. I just applied the hitter’s formula to pitchers. Additionally, I used the league average Speed Score in the equation instead of adjusting it for each batter.

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This week’s column is about a surprisingly good change-up. Because as Kyle Gibson ascended the ranks in Minnesota’s farm system, there were questions about his change piece. He’s thrown over 300 of them now, and it looks good, and now the questions have changed. The new question may be harder to answer.

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Yesterday I gave up and decided it was finally time to cut Dan Haren and his 10.03 ERA over the last 30 days from my FSWA team. When looking for a replacement, I sorted by ESPN’s player rater performance over the last 30 days and found Chase Anderson as the best available pitcher according to that metric. I didn’t know much about Anderson other than the fact that he’s from Wichita Falls and played club ball with a friend of mine. So I thought Anderson was worth a closer look. Read the rest of this entry »

In Boston’s second big deal of the day, John Lackey is headed to the Cardinals in exchange for starter Joe Kelly and “outfielder” Allen Craig.

Lackey will see a sweet boost in his value in August and September, as he’ll get to avoid the DH and move into baseball’s best pitcher’s parks. Throughout his career, Lackey has feasted on the NL in interleague play, earning a 3.07 ERA in 246 innings. Lackey has stuck out 219 in those innings, leading to a WHIP of 1.18. Lackey won’t necessarily see much of a defensive boost with his new club, especially because he’s induces neither grounders nor flies at a special rate. If you’re in an NL-only league, go bid big on Lackey right now and use this unique chance to add an impact starter over the roto stretch run.

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We collectively scratched our heads when the Diamondbacks traded top prospect Trevor Bauer to the Indians after the 2012 season. But after he posted a suspect 4.15 ERA at Triple-A with the Tribe and then a 5.29 ERA over four starts with the Major League club, we thought that perhaps the team didn’t act as silly as we originally thought. A turnaround at Triple-A resulted in his second chance with the big club, but a 4.25 ERA remains a mild disappointment.

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