J.A. Happ

Why I watched: Just traded to Seattle and had a decent 2014.

Game(s) Watched: 9/27/14 vs Orioles

Game Thoughts

• He threw his fastballs between 92-95 mph. He had a two and four-seamer. They looked to almost be identical, but the 2-seamer drops just a bit at the last moment. Neither pitch is really special, but they are serviceable. He decreased the usage of the four seamer from 54% to 48% from April to September while increasing his sinker usage from 15% to 22%. Additionally, the lefty pounded the outside of the plate against righties.

• He threw a 78-81 mph curve. It was only a chase pitch as he couldn’t throw it for strikes. A couple of times he hung the pitch.

• His change was at 86 mph and was straight with some late sink.

• Finally, I saw a couple sliders at 86 mph with some glove side run.

• Nothing stood out … maybe the sinker. He is a 4-5 starter.

Final thoughts: I think the sum is better than the parts, but the parts aren’t really that great. It would be interesting if he swapped the usage of the two and four-seamer. I will take him in AL-only leagues, but that is it. Just not enough wow to consider elsewhere.

Wade Miley

Why I watched: Just traded to the Red Rox

Game(s) Watched: 9/27/14 vs Cardinals

Game Thoughts

• The lefty works fast. He is ready to pitch as soon as he gets the ball back from the catcher.

• All of 28-year-old’s pitches traveled in from  10:30 to 4:30. Each is just at a little different speed and little different break.

• He pounded the 1B part of the plate to both LH and RH hitters.

• His two-seamer was between 89-91 mph with some sink. It is a plus pitch with an above average rate of grounders and swinging strikes. His four-seamer, which was around 92-93, just didn’t have the sink. It was tough at times to tell the difference between the two. The one issue he has had with the two-seamer is throwing it for strikes. Only a 40% Zone% on the 2014 season, so if hitters don’t chase it, he can run up his pitch count and is then force to use the 4-seamer (53% Zone%).

• His 86-87 mph slider was a plus chase pitch. It has the same motion as his two–seamer but with more drop. This can be seen with its 60% GB% and 17% GB%.

• His change was at 82-83 mph. It came is just like his 4-seamer, but just 10 mph slower. It will either fool the hitter (14% SwStr%) with the speed difference or the hitter will tee off on it (.380 BABIP, .229 ISO).

• He surprisingly used his curve quite a bit during the game (16% vs 2% on the season). It was at 77 mph with 10-4 motion. It seemed fairly average, but was a nice change of pace considering his other pitches.

Final thoughts: I think he has the chance to be a good pitcher if he could throw strikes more. He has some good downward movement on his pitches with a good amount of swing-and-miss. His main issue will be throwing enough called strikes early in the count to use his breaking pitches.

Chris Bassitt

Why I watched: Just got traded from the White Sox to the A’s

Game(s) Watched: 9/28/14 vs Royals

Game Thoughts

• Tons of movement on his pitches, but he couldn’t throw any of them consistently.

• The 25-year-old righty’s sinker/two-seamer was 92-95 mph with some release side run and sometimes some late drop. The key to this pitch, and most of his others, is they get good movement at lower velocities. They straighten out as he overthrows them for higher speeds. Majors league hitters, besides B.J. Upton, can hit 95 mph straight fastballs.

• His slider was between 82-85 mph with glove side run. Like with his fastball, he overthrew it and just hung it a few times to get crushed.

• His 70-72 mph curve came in with a 12-6 motion and he could throw it for call strikes.

• He threw his slider and curve for a combined ~50% of the time (48.4%). The number is not out of line with his season combined value of 44.4%.

• Though I didn’t notice it during the game, but he is a flyball pitcher (40% GB%, bottom 3/4ths of the league). He allowed no home runs during the 2014 season and had a 0.6 HR/9 in all his minor league stops.

Final thoughts: I wasn’t impressed, but he could work out in Oakland’s large park since he is a flyball pitcher. I see a 5th starter/ longer relief future for him.

Santana ranked 67th in Zach Sanders’ postseason rankings.

Ervin Santana turned 32 today, a day after he signed a four-year, $55 million deal with the Minnesota Twins. Not only will this be a piece trying to determine his fantasy value, but perhaps a bit of an introduction to him for Twins fans.

Santana is not an ace, but rather a name Twins fans have simply heard. And with the Twins’ faithful, that’s more than half the battle. Nine of Santana’s 10 big league seasons have been spent in the American League, and he’s faced the Twins 13 times in his career with rather good success — 6-3, 3.87 ERA, 7.1 K/9.

And oddly, that’s the sort of thing that sticks with Twins fans: familiar names and Twins killers. Read the rest of this entry »

When Alex Wood broke into the majors in 2013 as a member of the Braves bullpen, there were more questions than answers regarding his long-term outlook. A fastball/changeup lefty, Wood lacked the third pitch that is so crucial for sustained success in a major-league rotation. He also relied on a funky delivery to generate deception. Whether that delivery remained deceptive after hitters got used to it was one question; whether Wood could stay healthy with his high-effort delivery was another.

Tim Hudson’s mid-season 2013 injury gave Wood a chance to show what he could do as a starter. In his 11 starts, Wood allowed plenty of baserunners (1.45 per inning), but largely mitigated that issue by allowing just 14 extra-base hits in those 11 starts. All told, his work as a starter was largely promising:

• 3.54 ERA, 8.68 K/9, 3.54 BB/9, .273/.340/.366 opponents’ slash

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So many things happened. Everyone was traded. Everyone was released. And everyone was signed. It’ll fuel RotoGraphs pieces for weeks to come. You’ll see more in-depth pieces on these guys. But, with the dust settled, it seems like a good time to run all through some of the players that changed addresses, and talk a little bit about how they may have changed their fantasy outlooks for the coming season.

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Jose Fernandez was having a dominating 2014 season until he needed Tommy John surgery last May. The 22-year-old righty could be one of the more dominant arms in the game when he returns. Fantasy owners would love to have him available mid-season as a boost their team.  While he is on the disabled list (DL), some other pitcher must be filling in for him. Fernandez’s projection should include this replacement pitcher’s production. Here is a break down of how I put on value on players who will miss significant time.

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Many fantasy baseball players don’t readily like or even accept Francisco Liriano. He walks too many guys, a lot of them say, and he’s a major health risk. He’s unreliable and difficult to predict, they probably feel.

All those things are true, but probably not quite to the extent that some rotisserie and head-to-head owners believe them to be. Perhaps even before they had become less true since Liriano joined the Pittsburgh Pirates, but at least after that event. All those things have generally helped to depress his cost, even since that move, as well. That should remain true after a season in which he finished 71^st among starting pitchers in Zach Sanders’ end-of-season rankings for the position and has rejoined the Bucs. That’s a good thing.

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Entering the season, some fantasy owners thought Corey Kluber could turn in a good year – I bet a lot of them frequent these pages. He was coming off a below average 3.85 ERA, but FIP, xFIP, and SIERA all estimated a figure closer to 3.25. Given a decent strikeout rate of 8.31 K/9 and solid 2.02 BB/9, he made for a tidy mid-late draft target. His average cost was $5 (I generally paid about $8).

Now we know that the Klubot was a lot better than “good.” After all, he earned a great nickname like Klubot. Generally, you don’t earn a cool moniker with mediocre performance (unless it rhymes, i.e. Big Game Games). His 18 wins, 269 strikeouts (10.27 K/9), 2.44 ERA, and 1.09 WHIP ranked him as the fourth best fantasy pitcher, worth $28. Talk about profit.

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Nearly a year ago, I introduced you to my 2014 Andrew Cashner. If you had forgotten, Cashner was my favorite sleeper heading into 2013. Although the strikeout rate was a disappointment, he certainly delivered. The 2014 version (before Carlos Carrasco took over as my favorite sleeper) turned out to be Cashner’s rotation mate, Tyson Ross. And boy did he make his fantasy owners happy by posting a 2.81 ERA and punching out 195 batters, while winning 13 games.

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Coming off a pretty fantastic 2013 season, many were bullish on the mustachioed baby-faced Ranger for 2014. But after a freak accident with his pooch left him with microfracture surgery on his knee, Derek Holland was pretty much a lost cause in both real and fantasy baseball. By the time he returned, the Rangers were in the cellar and there wasn’t much reason for Holland to go out there and be quite as fine as he was in years past. Rather, he was merely getting his work in — in preparation for 2015.

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It’s been a few years since Doug Fister was first able to legally drive a car, however 16 still represents a significant number for the right-hander. Last year he accrued 16 wins en route to being ranked as the 19th best starting pitcher, while torpedoing one of my Preseason Bold Predictions. Fister managed to crack the top-20 mark despite a weak 5.38 K/9, the second lowest mark seasonal average of his career, minimum 100 innings pitched.
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