The Hardest Things About Drafting Starting Pitchers
Two things make it hard for me to justify spending precious auction dollars on starting pitching. I touched on this topic in my conclusion to yesterday’s Madison Bumgarner post, so let’s just pick up where I left off.
The two hardest things about drafting pitching are inconsistency and substitutions (in the economic sense). Bumgarner is one of the least inconsistent pitchers in baseball, but even he comes with an injury risk of around 30 percent. As for substitutes, any of the top 20 or so pitchers after Kershaw can be considered interchangeable. Is Cole Hamels much different than Bumgarner? Tyson Ross? Bumgarner is an easy pick to outperform them, but it’s not a lock. If Ross costs $10 less than Bumgarner, than maybe the downgrade in expected performance can be applied to an improvement elsewhere.
In a standard 5×5 league, every position has scarcity except starting pitcher. If you wait too long to fill third base, you’ll be picking between Conor Gillaspie and Casey McGehee. First base can stick you with a mix of Adam Lind, Justin Morneau, and Ryan Howard. Outfielder is deeper, but you’ll have to commit to a platoon if you want cheap production. Don’t even get me started on shortstops.
With pitchers, there’s almost always a whole glob of players who are comparable to the best available hurler. You have to wait a VERY long time to reach the equivalent of the Gillaspie/McGehee dollar days. Even then, it’s a lot easier to get great value. Last season, I found it difficult to justify any expenditures on pitching. My rotations were heavy on Ervin Santana, Yordano Ventura, and Dallas Keuchel. I usually spent $8 to $12 on Corey Kluber as my “ace” investment (I got lucky). With the exception of one league where I actually did pony up for pitching, my rotations were fine. That is what I meant by “substitutes” in the quoted text. With starting pitching, you can always wait for the next guy on the list without missing substantial production.
The bigger issue when targeting starters is their apparent lack of consistency. In an age where the pitcher is king, it’s hard for all but the very best to rise above the pack. The difference between players like Alex Cobb, Anibal Sanchez, and Jose Quintana is liable to come down to “luck” stats like BABIP or HR/FB ratio. Or it will just be whatever player stays healthiest. Maybe Mike Fiers outperforms them all while costing $1 on draft day. Sometimes, good pitchers make good pitches and lose. Sometimes mediocre pitchers make bad pitches and win.
Inconsistency is another word for risk. What do we do with risk on draft day? We price it into our model (whether that’s a fantasy spreadsheet or the ol’ gut approach). Pitchers come with the double whammy of performance and injury risk, making it dangerous to depend upon them. Classically, fantasy owners use a 70/30 budget split between position players and pitchers. The divergence isn’t because pitchers are less important – they control half of the categories too. It’s because of inconsistency, substitutability, and the myriad risks involved.
Starter values are hurt by the present state of pitching dominance. Few past Clayton Kershaw can rise above the mucky muck. Elite relievers are freely available these days, which gives fantasy owners another way to salvage a cheap pitching staff. Perhaps it’s time to consider a 75/25 split. I’ve been doing mostly 80/20 or even 85/15 these last few seasons. When I do spend on pitching, it’s usually for Craig Kimbrel or Greg Holland.
So, as we continue to pump out pitcher analyses here at RotoGraphs, let’s talk about the value of starting pitching. Do you buy the premise that better pitching should lead us to focus even more on position players? Under what conditions do you usually target starting pitching?
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In both my leagues last year (snake draft, 3 or 4 keepers depending on league, with 1 pitcher kept in each, Gray and Fernandez), I drafted 2 elite closer options in round 4 and 5 and waited on pitching till the the early to mid teens and went offense with all my other early pics. Ended up with similar rotations, involving Kluber, Ross, Kennedy, Odorizzi, etc. and was active one the waiver wire, while everyone else was grabbing mid to low tier closer options. Ended up near the top in nearly all pitching categories and won both leagues.
An additional benefit of guys drafting elite starters early is that they pretty much HAVE to avoid pitching at the later rounds of the draft because, as you mention, offensive positions are so shallow, which basically leaves an entire mid-tier rotation out there for those that avoid pitching early.
In an auction format, I would try as much as I could to continually throw aces out there as early as possible to force people to bid on them while they still have plenty of cash.
Level of competition is often underrated in evaluating strategies. Being active on the waiver wire can cover for all of things.
I thought about doing something very similar to this next year in my deep redraft mixed league (30 roster spots, 10 pitchers, minimum of 2 RP). My thought process was to gamble on one stud higk-K SP in the first few rounds, then grab two elite closers as soon as I sensed a run on saves. After that it would be all offense until the late teens, where I could fill in the staff with high upside / streaming candidates. I also want to spend my last two picks on stud set-up men )who typically go ignored in this league), to help stabilize my rate stats and keep my overall innings managable. It seems every year I’m able to find guys like deGrom or Odorizzi from the wire, so there’s no sense spending high draft picks on back end rotation arms.
Personal opinion, but I feel like if leagues are really in a situation where an 80/20 split is appropriate then the league should be adjusted to be a better reflection of baseball, perhaps by going deeper or adding categories that better exemplify the value of a true ace.
Pitching dominance in the majors at least changes the numbers for “elite” stats.
Not sure what the issue is where you’re saying the difference between Cobb, Sanchez, and Quintana is small and liable to come down to luck factors like BABIP and HR/FB. Those guys are mid-range starters and I think the same argument goes for the mid-range of any position. I’d argue that the differences between say, Kyle Seager, Nolan Arenado, and Pablo Sandoval are small and likely to come down to luck factors like BABIP (and BABIP w/risp) and HR/FB.
The difference is that there aren’t too many more names you can add to your 3B list. I could add another 20-30 starters to my list. I didn’t think anyone would want to read the whole list 🙂
But teams only need one 3B where they frequently will use 5, 6, or 7 starters on their roster
never got an answer to this. If we dont consider injury (just humor me) and if I have 15 batters for 5 categories, and 9 pitchers for 5 categories, isnt each pitcher more valuable. Usually I have 6 starters affecting 4 categories. There’s just no way a starter isnt more valuable generally. Maybe depth changes that but I think people have always been saying that hitters are more valuable.
Each pitcher has more of an impact on your overall numbers, but there are more options to fill that slot. Secondly, pitchers’ stats are more violate so they come with more risk.
Let’s play a game: There is a table in Room 1 with two piles of money: $100, $101 (pitchers). Room 2 has two piles of money $20, $1 (hitters). It is a 2 person game and each person can only choose one pile from each room. If you go 1st what would you choose?
Outcomes:
Player 1 choose Room 1 and takes $101.
Player 2 choose Room 2 and takes $20.
Player 1 choose Room 1 and takes $1.
Player 2 choose Room 2 and takes $100.
Player 1: $102 Player 2: $120
Player 1 choose Room 2 and takes $20.
Player 2 choose Room 1 and takes $101.
Player 1 choose Room 2 and takes $100.
Player 2 choose Room 1 and takes $1.
Player 1: $120 Player 2: $102
thanks. I guess I would say
1) is it always true that pitching has more depth? is there any proof to that? I feel like people have been saying pitching is easier to find all the way to the steroid days
2) I get the injury part. But is Clayton Kershaw, Felix, Sale etc stats more volatile than Trout, Miggy, etc?
i think you have your room #’s mixed up
1. There is proof, I don’t know why.
2. I am not sure if elite starters are more volatile than elite hitters, but after that they generally are.
I usually draft one elite SP (usually count on for innings and lots of QS), lots of potential young guys like Sonny Gray, and two decent closers and 8th inning guys.
All pitchers carry inherent draft risk, mostly though all the risks belong with closers.
I wish I’d read your comment before posting mine above, you stated my strategy much more succinctly. Have you generally found this approach to be successful?
I think people undervalue having aces in H2H leagues. It gives you a ton of flexibility when you can put them out there even when your ratios are tight, and stream in a bunch of filler SPs when you are tight on W/K. In an auction format I like to wait out the very top end pitching then try and get 2-3 of the 1a guys. Then fill with value. In drafting, it makes more sense to leave pitching till the middle rounds since it’s harder to find value early.
most commentary is centered around ROTO fwiw.
I would think that aces are worth less in H2H leagues. For one you could ignore SP and stock up on closer\elite MR or you could draft several low end closers and just stream.
Every week the stats get reset so a bad pitching out is not as hurtful.
A few points:
1.Injuries to pitchers are not as devastating as hitters since they can be replaced easier.
2.Depending on lower end SP limits the ceiling of your staff.
3.More likely to have a pitcher who will hurt you by having a 5 ERA the 1st month.
When to draft pitchers depends upon where as a fantasy owner wants to put his risk, the layout of players remaining, and the strengths of the owner.
Front-line starters just aren’t valuable enough to draft early or spend big on because every year 15-20+ pitchers come out of nowhere that cost nothing more than a waiver move or player drop and provide nearly equivalent production (DeGrom, Richards, Roark, Fiers, Keuchel, McHugh, Volquez, Arrieta, A. Wood, Duffy, Shoemaker, Simon …) plus the pre-season sleepers that cost mid-teen picks and take the next step (Ross, Kluber, Tillman …).
The other reason is there are a lot of ways to finish near the top of the league in pitching categories without having a known ace … looking for wins and ks? stream against high strikeout offenses. Want ERA/WHIP? Build a staff of middle relievers and stream favorable matchups or target pitchers in Safeco, Petco, AT&T, etc.
But, if you want a third basemen that’s going to hit .280+ and 25+ HR, you pretty much have no choice but to spend big early or pray you get lucky and be the one team that cashes in on Todd Frazier’s breakout.
I’ve always tried to get two aces in the first 5 rounds and then fill out my rotation in the later rounds. I’ve had a lot of success with this (been playing since the mid-90’s) but now that hitting is becoming more scarce I’m starting to reconsider. Plus, as others have said, there seems be a lot more unknown guys who come out of nowhere and provide a lot of value whereas I don’t feel like that was the case 5-10 years ago.
I think I will still try to get an undisputed ace early on but I will probably try to grab a 3B or another OF now instead.
In a standard lg I go about 75-20-5 OF/SP/RP
For SP, I narrow down to a small list of about 25 pitchers I really like for their peripherals. RP, this list is even more restrictive. Then, I only draft the ones from this list who are good auction value. This makes it alot simpler to draft in auction as I simply dont care about guys not on my list even if they are going real cheap. Last year I lead the league in ratios and just spent big bucks on the first few FA closers. I spent very little on the wire for SP.
A harder challenge is finding good offense in this current run environment…
I definitely see a lot of daylight between Bumgarner and Tyson Ross/Hamels. My snake draft strategy last year was to get one top tier pitcher around the 70th pick, and then wait on high value picks down the rounds. This led me to have a staff anchored by Bumgarner (taken with Cliff Lee still on the board, I didn’t want his injury rsk and Bumgarner has a great health record), Kazmir, and Kluber.
I used similar strategy with Closers. Took Holland in Round 7 and picked up handcuffs and temp closers later in the draft. Then waiver wired like mad and did very well. Acknowledging the vast differences in rostering SPs vs. Closers, I did employ a similar strategy for both with good success.
Yes, Lee had a huge injury history before last year. Only 6 years straight of 210 IP. And Kazmir hadn’t had 30 starts since 2007. 🙂
That comment did strike me as rather revisionist. There were some injury indicators for Lee, but nothing glaring. He was probably less risky than at least half the population. If not closer to 80%.
I agree that if the position is deeper, but the market has failed to notice, then of course you go for the cheaper options. But I think this article oversimplifies the interchangeability of pitchers. Yes, with this kind of depth, a lot of pitchers produce very similar end-of-year stats. But you pay a premium (a small one, I presume) on Alex Cobb over Jose Quintana because his peripherals and track record indicate he has a high probability of outperforming Quintana.
Would I spend give up Cole Hamels to bid on Tyson Ross and allocate $10 elsewhere? It depends on the owner. In game theory lingo, you have owners who will risk-averse, risk-neutral and risk-lovers.
I am largely risk-averse with a dash of risk-lover: I’ll buy an ace, three established middle-of-the-rotation guys and three lottery picks on the cheap. I’d like to have the stability in case the lottery picks don’t pan out — and, because they’re cheap, it’s no problem dropping them for a hot waiver wire add.
by middle of the rotation do you mean the $15-20 guys or the $8-12 guys?
(I upvoted you on accident. I’m cool with that.)
$8 to $12 guys. I spent $56 on my rotation this year: $22-11-11-10-1-1. The $32 spent on “middle of the rotation” guys were Zimmermann, Hamels and Cobb — arguably all established, low-volatility guys.
Been seeing a lot about Pitcher injury risk. Does any one have an idea on what % injury chances are for the average hitter?
I don’t have time to run the basic analysis, but you just need to query which players spent time on the disabled list and then decide on a denominator.
In daily leagues arms are even more devalued due to the fact that you can stream pitchers. There’s always an exploitable match-up which costs you nothing on draft day.
This has been an excellent discussion. No insults, room for different points of view, and a bunch of folks outlined a range of well-explained, intelligent strategies. Good work, folks.
I tend to come down similar to Jim (75-20-5), although depending on how an auction breaks, that might be (70-25-5). Ace starters are occasionally undervalued (e.g. Felix @$30 12-team AL-only). I agree that having a number of $1 slots at the end of the staff provides the flexibility to be aggressive on the waiver wire. This year Shoemaker, Carrasco, Bauer, Keuchel, McHugh and others all provided great waiver wire value for significant swaths of the season.
Just for fun I downloaded the Steamer 2015 projections for all pitchers, sorted to keep all pitchers forecast for 10+ innings pitched, and used PVM to valuate pitchers 1-108. Setting the pitcher’s share at 35%, I got at the top of the list Aroldis Chapman at $29.71, Craig Kimbrel at $26.35, and Clayton Kershaw at $26.30. Based on what I’m reading here about 80-20 splits, am I to think these values are too high?