It’s tier update time! I’m notoriously stubborn when it comes to changing my opinion of a player and three or four starts is far too small a sample to convince me to make any real dramatic adjustments. However, there are some scenarios in which I will reconsider — a change in fastball velocity, a change in pitch mix, an injury, or perhaps the pitcher’s defensive support performing better or worse than expected. That’s really about it. I care little for actual results at this point unless there’s a significant change in results not explained by the aforementioned factors. Like, if Mark Buehrle was suddenly striking out more than a batter per inning. My xK% equation is fantastic in small sample sizes since it’s based on per-pitch metrics and not innings or batters faced. But still, the underlying components themselves could quickly change.

As a reminder, the tiers are named after the best characters from the FXX show, Man Seeking Woman.

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We haven’t finished April yet and injuries are already taking their toll on a lot of teams. I’m talking “real” teams in this instance, but that of course trickles down to our fantasy clubs so we’re also left looking for replacements for the likes of Adam Wainwright, Brandon McCarthy, and now Masahiro Tanaka (although this will be focused on NL arms, so you’ll have to be in a mixer to use one of these as a replacement for Tanaka).

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In the FanGraphs Experts ottoneu League, I nearly traded Julio Teheran this off-season. I shopped him hard, targeting OF help. But holding him on a cheap contract was just too attractive – he’s 24 years old and coming off two straight excellent fantasy seasons.

But 2015 is not off to a good start. I was smart enough to bench him on Tuesday night, but after allowing 7 R (3 ER) over 5.1, his numbers on the year are not pretty. 27 IP, only 22 K, 12 BB, 6 HR. His 4.67 ERA is bad; his 6.07 FIP is worse. So what gives?

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As usual, injuries create opportunity for others. That’s the theme yet again in this week’s edition of the deep league waiver wire.

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If there’s a common thread between guests of the deep league wire, it’s that they typically don’t enter the fantasy picture because they were anyone’s ideal choice for playing time — they get their opportunities because others go down with injuries or are simply too awful to deserve major league starting jobs. This week’s candidates prove no exception, though both have the potential to contribute in NL-only leagues. As a reminder, I use CBS for the ownership percentages.
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Is there a more perplexing pitcher this year than Alex Wood has been so far? His pitches are all there, in the same quantities, at the same velocities, and with the same shapes… and the results — when it comes to balls and strikes at least — are nowhere to be found. Even my favorite pitch type peripherals are all out of whack.

How does a pitcher with the same stuff fail so miserably?

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Yesterday, I took the first look of the 2015 season at starting pitcher’s xK%. I began with the potential surgers, those pitchers whose expected strikeout rates were most above their actual marks. Today will be the opposite side of the coin. These pitchers have posted strikeout rates significantly above what their mix of strike percentage, swinging, called and foul strike rates suggest. They could be in for strikeout rate collapses if they don’t improve those peripherals.

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As we near the end of the month, our samples remain far too small to perform any serious analysis on. But, that’s really only true when we’re using plate appearances or innings pitched as our denominator. My xK% equation is based on per-pitch metrics, which stabilize much more quickly than anything based on innings. No, I don’t know the actual stabilization point, but since a pitcher has thrown more pitches than he has innings pitched, that’s what’s going to happen.

So let’s take a look at those starting pitchers whose xK% marks are most above their actual strikeout rates. These are the guys with significant upside who should enjoy a strikeout rate surge in the near future.

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The buy low and sell high strategy has been a favorite one of fantasy leaguers for as long as fantasy sports has existed, I would imagine. Unfortunately, it’s nearly dead given the wealth of freely available information and the deeper knowledge we now possess about how to evaluate player performance. Nearly dead, not completely dead. To buy low or sell high on a player, you need a story, a narrative that essentially offers up confirmation bias and makes the owner you’re dealing with feel all fuzzy inside when agreeing to the trade.

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So often, the first take takes. In other words, whatever prognostication came first, it’ll stick long after the data has taken a new turn. In most respects, when it comes to the games on the field, Addison Russell, Masahiro Tanaka, and Homer Bailey all started on the wrong foot this year. The trick is finding out — quickly — if there’s a chance that first look is obscuring the true value of these guys.

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