Under the Radar NL Fourth and Fifth Starters
With rosters set we now know the 25 men populating each National League club and that means we have a firm handle on how each rotation is set up. Throughout spring, there were several battles in the backend of rotations that are now sorted so let’s take a look at some of the fourth and fifth starters who might be ready to deliver more than their rotation spot would suggest.
Backend rotation starters aren’t usually loaded with all-format, all-situation starters, but we know that some will emerge as such. With these three, I think we have no worse than some stream options, but each also carry the upside of becoming full use guys. Well, full use outside of the normal spots where you’d consider sitting any non-ace (i.e. Coors).
Vance Worley, PIT – Worley’s resurgence was a bit of a shock given how horrid he was with Minnesota, but it feels pretty strong in terms of reliability. The Searage Method found its latest reclamation in mid-June of last year as Worley ran off a sub-3.00 ERA in 18 starts to close the season. He followed a lot of what we’ve seen be successful for Pirates pitchers with a sinker-slider approach that netted groundballs at a 49% clip (a career-high), but he added his own unique touch: the called strike.
He has always been something of a called-strike master. The league is usually in the 33-34% range and Worley has a career mark of 37% and last year’s 39% was his career-best and good for fifth in baseball from June 15th on (when Worley debuted). His 2014 run wasn’t the first time we’ve seen success from him, either. He had 131.7 innings of a 3.01 ERA in 2011 using more strikeouts, but less control in that run while still leaning on the called strike (38%).
As much as I love strikeouts, the command-and-control version of Worley is much more bankable going forward. I don’t think he has another sub-3.00 ERA season in him, but using his FIP (3.44) as a guide for what he’s capable of over a full season is more than reasonable. I think at worst he’s a home-only streaming option. I’m aware that his best work was done on the road last year, but I still trust him more in the confines of PNC Park.
Jake Peavy, SF – Peavy has enough name value to be one of those names taken late just because people recognize him and he’s a known quantity, but he still peaks at just over half-owned at his best outlet (CBS, 55%). He excellent with the Giants in 12 starts last year: 2.17 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and 3.4 K:BB ratio in 78.7 innings. No one should be expecting a repeat of that, but I don’t think a full season of his 2012 ERA (3.37) is out of the question. Like Worley, at the very least he is a home-only play. AT&T Park is a great place to pitch and Peavy showed as much in his small sample last year (1.64 ERA in 6 starts).
Part of Peavy sustaining success will be the Giants understanding what he is at this juncture of his career. He is a five-inning pitcher right now. His OPS in the sixth inning and beyond last year was .882, second-worst in baseball (Jon Niese, .906). This doesn’t mean he automatically turns into a pumpkin once the sixth starts, but rather that pitch 75 or so is when the Giants need to very carefully monitor Peavy.
They have never been afraid to lean on their bullpen and they should continue that trend with Peavy. Of course when investing in fourth-fifth starters, the expectations are much lower so someone who is best capped at six innings is perfectly fine. As long as he stays upright, Peavy is someone to consider.
Trevor Cahill, ATL – Eno recently wrote at length about Cahill after his trade to Atlanta. I still like Cahill and think this move could really help. It clears the path for the sure. It’s not like Arizona was littered with several better options, but perhaps options the team would rather see about over Cahill. By stuff alone, he’s not a 5.61 ERA pitcher, not by a longshot.
I’m not sure he’ll get all the way back to his 2.97 ERA from 2010, but he wasn’t really that good in that season anyway from a pure skills standpoint. I’d be willing to trade some of those 2014 strikeouts (21%) for a return of the elite groundball rate (56%+ for four straight years before ’14), especially with Andrelton Simmons patrolling the middle infield for Cahill now. It’s probably more of a wait-and-see situation with Cahill unless you’re in a deep NL league, but if we see a thousand groundballs in his season debut and he looks like the Oakland version out of the gate, I’d jump quickly.
I’d add Carlos Martinez (5th in rotation) to the list, especially for those in Keeper leagues. He may be a bit raw in the early going but his stuff is absolutely filthy and this is the first time he’ll have an extended time in the rotation. If he figure things out he may have more upside than most pitchers in the NL, let alone those languishing in the 4th/5th spot.
I didn’t include him because I don’t think he’s too under-the-radar. He’s at 78% at CBS as people are still very excited about him being a potential bust-out candidate.
Oh, wow! Fair enough. I had no idea he was being picked up so frequently. Guess the secret is out!
I think it’s perfect symmetry that Vance Worley and Francisco Liriano are in the same rotation. Worley is the master of the called strike and has great control, whereas Liriano is the king of swinging strikes, but walks a ton of guys in the process.
They also make a good pairing in fantasy because of that. Liriano covers Worley’s K deficiency and Worley covers Liriano’s WHIP deficiency.
Hey Paul–deep mixer that counts quality starts. Peavy or Zach McAllister as the last guy in the rotation?
Didn’t they send Worley to the minors in favor of Jeff Locke? I thought I read that on Fangraphs yesterday?
What’s your take on Brandon Morrow?
Worley was headed to the pen but Morton went on the DL so he is currently in the rotation kind of by default.
Yep. I’m well aware. The injury to Morton saved the Pirates from a stupid decision. Worley > Morton.
Morrow was on the shortlist to be included here. But I need to see something to be sold. He’s wildly overrated for the most part. We just haven’t seen enough to invest aggressively.
Charlie Morton injury pushes Worley to rotation (from pen).
Any chance that Worley’s called strike increase last year was due to Russell Martin being his catcher? Are you anticipating any Blue Jays hurlers getting a bump in this category because of Martin?
I’m sure Martin didn’t hurt, but given that Worley has done it throughout his career, I’m not worried that it will crater now that he’s gone.
I loved Stroman coming into the year, and still love Hutch. I can definitely see Martin adding value to young’uns in that rotation (Norris, Sanchez).
I am in the bullpen, but thanks for support.
Morton to DL – Worley to rotation. Old news.
Well shit. Luckily I am still available in my fantasy league, I’ll pick myself up. Thanks for the update, KB!
Isn’t Peavy have back problems?
Yeah, I should’ve mentioned his scratch, but I’m thinking more long-term. He’ll have nicks and aches throughout the season, but I still think we can get 150-160 IP.
Is Yusmeiro Petit worth a pick up?
I don’t think so, personally. He can’t make it through the lineup multiple times. He’s really best utilized as a multi-inning RP, but once you start getting in that third-fourth inning of work, his effectiveness wanes substantially. He’ll have some good outings if he does get in the rotation, but also some major flameouts and the flameouts will be too much to sustain the good outings.
Actually the 4th inning was one of Petit’s best as a starting pitcher. He did have poor numbers for the 3rd & 5th, but that could simply be noise given that his velocity and movement were largely unaffected by time through the order according to Brooks Baseball. The issue isn’t times through the order so much as handedness, as Petit has always fared substantially better against right-handed batters than left-handed batters, something that was especially true in 2014 when 10 of his 12 home runs allowed and 16 of his 22 walks allowed were to LHBs. The more innings he pitches in an outing the more left-handers he’s going to face, but when facing a team short on threats from that side of the plate he would be a good bet to dominate.
Good luck with him.
1st time – .476 OPS
2nd time – .814 OPS
3rd time – 1.155 OPS
He’s not cut out for starting. Maybe against the Brewers and their righty-heavy lineup, but he’s not someone to be trusted in the rotation unless he randomly figures out lefties.
Funny that you’d think the 3rd and 5th inning struggles are the noise when the fourth inning is the clear outlier.
Paul, you’re not listening. Historically Petit hasn’t been much better in the early innings than later. That’s a 2014 result, and as I pointed out, it’s actually a function of when he faced left-handed batters rather than being unsuited to starting. It is a fact that Petit’s velocity barely declined each iteration through the order. It is a fact that Petit’s movement barely changed each iteration through the order. Your numbers are facts also, but they appear to be his numbers for all appearances rather than isolating his starting appearances from his relief appearances. That’s going to produce misleading results both because pitchers are typically more effective in relief and because when using him in relief the Giants can better limit how often he faces left-handed batters.
As for the “noise,” evidently I wasn’t being clear. I believe that the 4th being a particularly good inning for him while the 3rd and 5th were particularly bad are both “noise” as a result of small samples. Petit’s K%, BB%, hit rate, etc were all pretty stable multiple times through the order. What produced those dramatically different OPS figures is that Petit gave up a lot of home runs in those innings. I’m suggesting that almost all of those home runs were to left-handers is more significant than them happening in the 3rd or 5th as opposed to the 4th or 2nd. Lastly, even in 2014 Petit had a 3.59 FIP and 3.01 xFIP as a starting pitcher. The idea that he’s somehow incapable of handling that role really isn’t at all supported by the evidence.
You can twist the logistical pretzels as much as you’d like. He isn’t cut out for starting. If you can’t regularly get both sides of the plate out, you won’t be a very good starter. You seem to be hung up on the fact that said his effectiveness wanes as the game goes on.
Whether that’s because his unimpressive stuff fades or because he faces more lefties as subs make their way in, I honestly don’t care. The more he’s out there, the more exposed he will be. He allows too many home runs which is the quickest way to tank an ERA.
Lefties obliterated him last year as they routinely have in his career. That’s unlikely to change at age-30. Like I said, up against a lineup like the Brewers, sure, but I’m not looking for such specialized usage right now.
Times through for his career –
1st – .623
2nd – .865
3rd – .930
Again, good luck with him.
Again you’re using figures combining relief and starting appearances instead of isolating the numbers from starts. I explained why that would be misleading, so the fact that you’re still doing it is very disappointing. You also conveniently ignored that “in 2014 Petit had a 3.59 FIP and 3.01 xFIP as a starting pitcher.” There’s no need to get so defensive when someone points out things you didn’t know. None of us are perfect.
First off, no I’m not using SP/RP numbers. Those are times through as a starter. But even if I was using composite numbers, those would help your case because he’s so much better in relief. I didn’t ignore his FIP at all (have fun with xFIP on Petit, as if he’s ever going to be league avg w/HR/FB% as SP)… a 3.59 just isn’t special these days, especially when tied to the downside that Petit carries because of his gopheritis.
Petit’s K%, BB%, hit rate, etc were all pretty stable multiple times through the order. What produced those dramatically different OPS figures is that Petit gave up a lot of home runs in those innings. I’m suggesting that almost all of those home runs were to left-handers is more significant than them happening in the 3rd or 5th as opposed to the 4th or 2nd.
What produced those dramatically different OPS figurs is the same thing that ALWAYS produces them for Petit – the longball. Specifically the longball to lefties. Times through does matter because the longer he’s in, the more lefties he’ll face and then trouble ensues.
If the evidence so strongly supported his ability to start, guess what, he’d be starting. Instead, he’s losing out to Tim Lincecum and Ryan Vogelsong.
He could be a DFS play against some RH-heavy lineups like MIL, but that’s it.
And just because someone disagrees with you, doesn’t make them defensive. It just means you’re wrong, at least in this case.
Paul, the question wasn’t whether or not Yusmeiro Petit would be “special” as a starter. The question was “Is Yusmeiro Petit worth a pick up?” You responded with the assertion that “he can’t make it through the lineup multiple times,” and “he’s not cut out for starting.” The velocity and movement data proves you wrong about the former while the 2014 FIP proves you wrong about the latter. You said something false and were corrected, everything since then has been you getting defensive and trying to make excuses for dismissing Petit as a starting pitcher when you obviously shouldn’t have. A 3.59 FIP pitcher is useful and worth a pick-up.
Have you not dealt with jdbolick in the comments before? This is basically his MO.
Disagree with somebody, be wrong about it, and keep grinding that axe in every possible direction just deep enough to weakly support an inherently flawed original thesis. The paragraphs get longer, the stats more incomplete/obscure/flawed, and when you don’t acknowledge them he gets upset, insists other people are the ones getting upset, and decides the logical conclusion is just that nobody else understands his convoluted argument.
There, I saved you a few hours in the coming season.
I stand by the fact that he’s not worth a pickup. His 3.69 netted a 108 FIP- so 3.59 would barely be average and that’s just in the league context. Fantasy ERAs are going to be even lower.
You’ve done nothing to prove he can make it through a lineup three-four times consistently. Neither the velocity data nor his FIP proves anything I’ve said wrong. You’re simply incorrect.
I’m sorry I’ve hurt your feelings by disagreeing with you, but that doesn’t make me defensive no matter how many times you condescendingly suggest otherwise. By all means, have fun with Yusmeiro Petit.
He couldn’t crack his own rotation for a reason. He’ll continue to have the same issues he’s always had.
This is my first time. It’s been nauseating.
Paul, you can’t pretend that a 3.59 FIP isn’t worth picking up when you suggested Trevor Cahill, a pitcher who has never had a season FIP before 3.85 and is at 4.32 FIP for his career as a starting pitcher. And that’s before we even get to Petit being much better than Cahill in WHIP, having a higher K%, and pitching for a team more likely to win.
The mistake you made was a reasonable one. You saw Yusmeiro’s OPS totals and assumed they were a result of losing his velocity and/or “stuff” over a succession of innings, but as I pointed out, the Brooks Baseball data proves that to be incorrect. You now know that Petit’s issue is with left-handers, and specifically left-handed power. That certainly is a handicap for a starting pitcher, I agree, yet Petit was valuable last season despite it. The problem isn’t that you made an understandable but incorrect assumption, the problem is that you’re continuing to stand by that assertion now that you know it was wrong. Again, you can’t credibly recommend Cahill and totally reject Petit.
Please stop telling me what I assumed. I made no such assumptions. I’m well aware of Petit’s profile top to bottom. I spend my winters studying and writing about every freakin’ pitcher in the game.
I can support Cahill and reject Petit. I did and will continue to.
Your condescension and know-it-all’ness is remarkably off-putting. Be better.
You didn’t mention anything about left-handers until after I did. Instead you had argued that “once you start getting in that third-fourth inning of work, his effectiveness wanes substantially.” The Brooks Baseball data shows that Petit barely has any difference in velocity or movement during multiple times through the order. I’ve made a ton of mistaken assumptions of my own over the years, the important thing is to recognize when they are mistaken and not to keep defending them because we wish they weren’t. A 3.59 FIP with a strong strikeout rate and good WHIP on the defending champions is worth picking up.
And when I am mistaken, I’ll gladly point it out. It wasn’t the case here at all.
I’m literally dying at you thinking you discovered Petit’s lefty issues. That is gold.
Thanks for the response, Paul. I really wish cain would just go down with TJ rather than teasing and making me keep him on the roster. I guess I didn’t learn my lesson last year…
What about Joe Wieland for LAD? Had a fairly good WHIP in AAA (before TJS).
He wasn’t on the depth as the fifth starter (in fact, no one was at MLB.com) so I didn’t mention him, but you better believe he’ll be written about in this space if he is in fact a rotation staple while Ryu is out.
What’s your thoughts on David Buchanan. I watched his last ST start and he looked really good. Nice movement (and pretty good placement) on his 90 – 91 FB, really nice breaking curve and good movement on his changeup. He was missing his spots a little bit but no one was putting solid hits on his pitches. HE was really good the last two months of last year. Is he flying way under the radar or going to crash?
BTW – Love the podcasts…
I’m a fan, actually. The only reason he didn’t make this list is because he’s listed third in their rotation on the depth charts. He won’t be special bc the Ks aren’t there for it, but he will be useful.
Do you have any projection for Buchanan? The estimates I have seen are around a 4.38 ERA and 1.42 whip. I wonder why so high since he was pretty good last year and great so far this spring. What price would you estimate in a NL-only 4×4 auction?
Second this, was watching his last few spring training starts, seems to have a confidence about his stuff right now, getting more swings and misses.
I’d have to give Randall Delgado a look at some point.
Agreed. Really hope he gets a look in ARI.
I’m gonna throw Brett Anderson’s name in the ring. He’s always had solid peripherals and has very low mileage on the arm (less than 500 major league IP). You could say that the low IP is evidence of injury risk, but only one of his injuries has ever been arm-related, and that was his TJ surgery back in 2011. I could see Anderson outperform both McCarthy and Ryu in 2015.
:shrug: However you wanna justify the injuries, the simple fact he hasn’t seen >85 in four years. I just don’t trust him. His low mileage is not by design at all, so it’s not really a big selling point for me.
I’m in a deep 16 team points league and have Wieland on my bench. I also have Nick Martinez (5th starter for the rangers) as a speculative add. I have a waiver claim in on Grilli (dropping wieland) and Vance Worley is also available in FA..I guess what I’m asking is what 2 would you take out of Grilli, Wieland, Martinez, and Worley? Wieland has solid minor league numbers, as does Martinez (although he was bad last year in the majors) and I could use another closer on my roster. Really liked this article and you’ve peaked my interest with Worley now.
Do you like Fiers this year in a NL only 4×4?
I do. His margin for error is low and requires his pinpoint command, but I believe in him.
Thanks for all the replies to the comments. Hopefully you get to mine.
Is Archie Bradley worth owning over these guys? From what I know he only has two pitches, and that usually doesn’t make for a good starter, much less one who hasn’t thrown in the Majors yet.
He almost made it, too, but 61% ownership at CBS felt a little high to be “under-the-radar” especially since he’s an uber-prospect. I think he is worth owning over these guys for the upside alone. If he isn’t ready, we move on, but none of these guys carry his obscene upside.
Thanks for the article. switching to the al, how would you compare someone like Cahill to bud Norris?
Situation: I’m commissioner of a 12-team 5×5 league with $100 FAAB budget. One owner missed the draft then dropped Carlos Gonzalez and David Wright out of nowhere for mediocre players. This is his fifth year in the league and generally hasn’t been a problem. I don’t know him personally.
Two Question: 1) As commissioner, what, if anything, should I do about this? I guess everyone has an equal chance to bid on the players, but it still seems unfair. 2) How much $ would you bid on these players?
Would love to hear from you Paul and whoever else has suggestions. Thanks!
chase anderson
david buchanan
zach mcallister
nathan karns
nick martinez
Three of those are AL and we were looking NL-only here. I mentioned Buchanan above. Love him this year as a backend guy, but he’s actually their third starter so he didn’t make the cut. And Chase Anderson has been so thoroughly discussed by Eno and myself (mostly Eno, I can’t take full credit for Anderson) that I didn’t think he was “under the radar” from a Rotographs standpoint!