So on Thursday, I used my xK% equation (updated version coming soon! probably) to assemble a list of starting pitchers that possess strikeout rate upside this year, strictly based on their strike percentage, looking, swinging, and foul strike rates. In it, I hinted that maybe I’ll recap how my 2016 pitcher list performed and since the majority of the comments requested such a post, here it is! Remember that the list assumes no change in pitch mix, strike percentage, or strike type rates. Essentially it’s saying that if the pitcher keeps doing the same thing, his strikeout rate should improve simply based on better sequencing or fortune.

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On Wednesday we began our two-part deconstruction of the 2010 film… OK, OK, sorry. Gosh. Actually, I identified four AL starters I could see making the leap for 2017. Fans of the Senior Circuit needn’t fret, I’ve got some names for you today! By the way, sorry I pushed this a day, but the schedule was loaded plus we had a podcast so I decided to hold it.

Jon Gray | Rockies

A recommendation for a pitcher in Colorado?! Yes. Gray is a stud-in-the-making. The obvious path to success for a Rockies arm is “survive at home, dominate on the road”. Gray was actually worse on the road this past thanks to some meltdown starts and of course, he had a couple in Coors, too, yielding a paltry 4.61 ERA when it was all said and done. Despite the lofty ERA, he still had a 1.26 WHIP and best of all, a 26% strikeout rate.

His strikeout rate is actually the fourth-best from a rookie since 2000 (min. 162 IP). Only Jose Fernandez (28%), Yu Darvish (27%), and Rick Ankiel (26%… 26.4% to be precise) were better. Gray’s ERA was the worst of anyone in the top-15, but his WHIP was 7th-best of that confined group. The shortcut here would be to just point out that the FIP was 3.60 and his SIERA was 3.72. His skills were better than the ERA suggests.

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Three years ago, I shared with you an updated version of my xK% equation. The formula uses a trio of strike type rates found at Baseball-Reference.com, including a pitcher’s looking, swinging, and foul strike percentages, along with his overall rate of strikes thrown. With an adjusted R-squared of 0.913, it explains a very high percentage of a pitcher’s strikeout rate. Its best use is early in the season when the plate appearance (the K% denominator) sample size is still small, as xK% uses total pitches as the denominator, so we can reach a reasonable sample size to analyze much more quickly.

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This piece isn’t about that extra day in February that comes around once every four years. I’m a year late for that. No, this is a 2500-word breakdown of the 2010 rom-com starring Amy Adams, who has actually appeared in every single movie since 2005. I should’ve saved this piece for January 8th, which marks the 7-year anniversary since the film’s release, but we don’t post on Sundays. Anyway, Adams plays Anna who is… OK, I’ve taken this joke (and I use that term loosely) entirely too far, but I still kinda want to write 2500 words on this sweet, sweet movie film.

A leap year in sports isn’t an official thing, but “making the leap” is when a player puts it all together and pans out on previously established promise. I’m not even sure you have to have the promise or hype ahead of your leap, but the pitchers I’m discussing in this piece definitely do. “Leapers” over the last two seasons include guys like Aaron Sanchez, Danny Duffy, Carlos Carrasco, Gerrit Cole, and Carlos Martinez. There is no set formula or requirements, so this is definitely more of a feel thing.

Sanchez had all of 125.3 MLB innings, mostly in the bullpen before his 2016 breakout. Cole had two solid seasons with about 2/3rds of a full workload before his 208-inning masterpiece in 2015. Carrasco discovered himself in the bullpen as a 27-year old after multiple false starts in five disjointed MLB seasons (one of which was lost to TJ recovery).

To give some idea of what would constitute a leap year, I’d say first and foremost that you have to throw a full season (162+ IP) and then the stats can vary, but probably no worse than a mid-3.00s ERA, low-1.20s WHIP, and a good strikeout rate. Here are four American Leaguers who look ready for their leap in 2017 (I’ll have 4 NLers tomorrow*):

*Author Note – I mean Friday… we recorded the pod Thursday and I didn’t get to finish the last part of the NL piece, so look for it early Friday. 

Carlos Rodon | White Sox

Rodon keeps teasing with his second halves. Add up both and he has a 3.58 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and 24% K rate in 146 IP. He took steps to combat his egregious walk rate dropping it from 12% to 8%. Early on, it seemed to be more control than command as his hit and home run rates surged in the first half (10.7 H/9, 1.5 HR/9), but the command came around in the second half as he continued to hit the zone while dropping the hits and homers to 8.3 and 1.0, respectively.

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Alas, we have come to both the final 2016 Pod Projection recap and the last review of my 2016 preseason articles! We arrive at Raisel Iglesias, whose projections were all likely to be wrong, because we all figured he’d remain in the starting rotation. Instead, he ended up making just five starts, missed a month and a half with a shoulder injury, and then return as a reliever. He even ended up recording six saves! But let’s see what I projected and what actually transpired anyway.

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Alas, we have reached the end of our Steamer and I reviews and I left the best for last…just kidding. Though I was surprisingly far more bullish on Sonny Gray than Steamer was, his season was an unquestioned disaster. So we certainly know whose forecast was better before even beginning our deep dive! But let’s get to the two projections sets anyway and compare what Steamer and I were expecting versus what actually transpired.

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Johnny Cueto: Sabermetric Anomaly

I am on a mission, to try to explain why some pitchers don’t fit into normal molds. I created pERA to help explain the advantages pitchers who have a mix of high and low groundball pitches experience. I tackled the Robbie Ray/Michael Pineda group of pitchers who can only throw their fastball for strikes. The next pitcher whose production can’t be explained by the above methods is Johnny Cueto. He just a hard player to figure out and here is why.

• Over the past six seasons, his ERA-FIP is the 4th lowest (-0.59) among all starters with at least 600 IP. The other pitchers surrounding him are low ground ball pitchers (and R.A. Dickey) who will see their BABIP suppressed because flyballs and popups are easy outs. Cueto’s 48% GB% is by far the highest among the ERA-FIP leaders until Doug Fister says hi at #22. Read the rest of this entry »

Let’s return to reviewing my Pod Projections, this time diving into popular preseason sleeper, Taijuan Walker. Though he posted a poor 4.56 ERA in 2015, he had been a heavily hyped prospect and averaged over 94 mph with his fastball. So that made him a favorite target with serious breakout potential in 2016. In April, he made his newly minted owners proud, as he posted a microscopic 1.44 ERA and 2.69 xFIP. But then the wheels fell apart and he ended up missing time due to a foot injury. Sadly, the strong April wasn’t enough to keep his ERA from finishing above 4.00, and now he gets to start 2017 on a new team and in a new league. Let’s what what I projected for 2016 and how it compared to his actual results.

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Yesterday, I wrote up Rich Hill’s 2016 season, declaring him The Leader of Baseball’s Movementarians. In researching the piece, I dove deep into Baseball Prospectus’ Pitchf/x leaderboards. I wanted to find out what makes Hill’s fastball so dominant, despite its unremarkable velocity, and his curveball so effective, given its unimpressive whiff rate. I’m not an expert in pitching mechanics. I can’t breakdown video or tell you much about grips. For that, talk to Eno. But I found that Hill enjoys two distinct advantages that make his (essentially) two-pitch arsenal play up.

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Pitching is a fickle market. Consider that just three years ago we had Anibal Sanchez, Hisashi Iwakuma, and Cliff Lee in the top 10 for ERA. Perhaps more remarkably, Shelby Miller, Andrew Cashner, Travis Wood, and Kris Medlen were all in top 20 while James Shields and Mat Latos were just outside. Life comes at you fast as a pitcher.

Obviously, injuries are the biggest factor in changing the fate of a pitcher and most of the names suffered an injury or three in the interim that has seriously altered their path. Tyson Ross put up 516.7 IP of a 3.07 ERA from 2013-15, but missed essentially all of 2016 with a shoulder injury that eventually gave way to thoracic outlet syndrome surgery and led to his being non-tendered by the Padres. He’ll latch on somewhere and remain on the radar as he works his way back, but sometimes guys just get squeezed out and collectively forget about them.

It isn’t always due to injury, either. Poor performance, a dimmed prospect star, or just a lack of prospect status in the first place can all push a guy to the side in the crowded pitching market. Here are four arms you should keep in mind for deeper leagues (more than 10 teams) in 2017:

Homer Bailey | Reds

Bailey has essentially missed two seasons to Tommy John surgery and the subsequent recovery. It came almost directly on the heels of him signing a 6-year, $105 million dollar extension, too. He has three guaranteed years left at $63 mil plus a $25 million dollar option for 2020 which seems like a pipedream now and is much more likely to result in the $5 million dollar buyout.

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