Here is my latest starting pitcher rankings update! Please review the May 18th update for information on the tiers. Keep in mind that this is a narrower focus than just “rest of season” as I’ll be updating these again at the All-Star break. Pitching is just too volatile to have confidence in a single ranking set for more than 4-6 weeks at a time.

Hell, things will probably change this weekend that will make me reconsider some slots, but we can deal with those on a one-off situation. The tiers are what’s important. I’ll reiterate again that the Must-Starts aren’t automatically the best pitchers, but rather the guys that you can’t sit with any confidence (they don’t have a platoon split or home-road split and their track record speaks more than the first three months of this season.

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No one expected Rick Porcello to repeat his 2016 Cy Young season besides maybe his mom. And she probably had some doubts. Before the season started, I thought he was getting punished too much especially after some second half changes. So far, I have been wrong with Porcello maintaining his 2016 production with a 3-9 record and a 5.05 ERA. Here’s what has gone wrong.

Less Help

Last season, quite a bit of Porcello’s fantasy value came from his 22 Wins. While 22 Wins was out of the question this season, owners expected more than three. Porcellos has giving up an extra run per game and the Red Sox offense has dropped off.

Last season, they average scoring 5.4 R/G and this season that number has dropped to 4.7 R/G. With the league scoring up, the Red Sox have gone the other direction. Read the rest of this entry »

On the last MASH report, I discussed Alex Wood’s S/C joint sprain, and many of the commenters claimed it was #FAKENEWS.

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Welcome back to the third and penultimate installment of Underthrown Pitches and the Pitchers Who Underthrow Them. Over the last several weeks, we’ve identified high performing four-seamers, sinkers, cutters, and curves and the pitchers who should consider throwing them more often. We’ve defined “high performing” based on a Pitch Score that factors an offering’s proclivity towards inducing whiffs, ground balls, and pop-ups. We’ve also defined the degree that a pitch is “underthrown” using a simple measure of pitch score to frequency.

For a more detailed recap of the results and methodology to-date, check out the previous installments linked below.

Vol 1: Four-seamers and Sinkers

Vol 2: Cutters and Curves  Read the rest of this entry »

Change in pitch mix often coincides with a change in performance. It’s one of the few statistical changes we could identify immediately. So let’s take a look at which American League starting pitchers have changed their pitch mix versus last year the most.

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If James Paxton has suffered through his last three starts in the course of a healthy season, it would be annoying and definitely garner some attention, but I don’t think it’d cause a freakout. Given that they’ve come so closely a DL stint – something Paxton has been unable to avoid throughout his career – there are concerns. Paxton faces the Detroit Tigers tonight in Seattle, a game I’ll be watching. I figured I’d take a look at what’s been happening over these last three starts in comparison to the first seven (which includes his first off the DL on May 28th) and see if we can highlight the issue(s) and find something to keep an eye on tonight.

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With the holiday weekend, Jason and I took the week off from the podcast. I didn’t want to leave you empty-handed, though, so here’s a little guide to this week’s pitching waiver wire.

TWO-START ARMS

Shallow (ranked):

• Brad Peacock – at OAK, at SEA
• Brandon McCarthy – v. NYM, v. COL
• Zack Wheeler – at LAD, at SF
• Ariel Miranda – v. DET, v. HOU

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I’m not sure of the exact Sleeper and the Bust podcast but Paul and Eno were discussing Jeff Samardzija and how his ERA would look better without a Colorado start. Right now Samardzija’s ERA is 4.31 but if the seven run, five inning start in Colorado is removed his ERA drops to 3.81. I’m not a fan of removing starts from a pitcher’s stats. The good and bad will happen. The deal is that Samardzija owners probably sat him that week like I did in Tout Wars. If owners aren’t going to use pitchers in their Colorado starts maybe owners should start ignoring the stats generated there.

The increase scoring environment in Colorado is about impossible to overcome. In an article at Rotowire ($) last year, I stated the following:

What we do know is that the road pitcher should expect between a 1.00 and 2.00 increase in ERA. I might put the ERA drop near 1.50, but I could understand if an owner wants to use a smaller or larger number. Additionally, I will put the K/9 drop near 0.9 and the WHIP increase at .25.

Those increases are just too much to absorb over an entire season. Sure an owner can get away with a start every now and then but eventually, the odds will even out. Once the hammer drops, an owner will spend a couple weeks trying to recover their overall rate stats.

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Here are a few starters who have seen their velocity drop during the 2017 season and my thoughts on each (full list).

Gio Gonzalez (-0.9 mph on 4-seam, -1.9 mph on 2-seam)

Of the pitchers I am examining today, Gonzalez is the toughest to get a read on. Besides a reasonable strikeout rate (8.3 K/9), his sub-3 ERA is the only trait he has going for him. His walk rate (4.3 BB/9) is his highest since 2009. He doesn’t have a good groundball rate and his home runs are up (with the rest of the league).

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Two weeks ago, I went searching for some of the league’s underthrown pitches. Which offerings by virtue of their paucity, despite excelling at inducing whiffs and weak contact, should be thrown more often? We’ve seen it so many times in the past, when a pitcher of whom we think a known quantity, suddenly leans on one pitch just a little more heavily and reinvents himself. Last week, we looked at the league’s underthrown four-seam fastballs and sinkers. This week, we turn to cutters and curves.

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