Starting Pitcher Rankings Update (June)
Here is my latest starting pitcher rankings update! Please review the May 18th update for information on the tiers. Keep in mind that this is a narrower focus than just “rest of season” as I’ll be updating these again at the All-Star break. Pitching is just too volatile to have confidence in a single ranking set for more than 4-6 weeks at a time.
Hell, things will probably change this weekend that will make me reconsider some slots, but we can deal with those on a one-off situation. The tiers are what’s important. I’ll reiterate again that the Must-Starts aren’t automatically the best pitchers, but rather the guys that you can’t sit with any confidence (they don’t have a platoon split or home-road split and their track record speaks more than the first three months of this season.
Or at least carries enough weight not to overreact to what we’ve seen this year. At the same time, when a guy has made changes and he’s clicking on all cylinders, we need to ride that wave, especially with the scarcity of reliable arms in the new Home Run Era. Please leave your questions and comments (or let me know if I forgot anyone meaningful) below and I’ll get to them sparingly over the weekend (I’m off to San Diego!) and then in full force on Monday. I’ll also be doing an explanation piece early next week!
Copied directly from the May 18th update:
The tiers are as follows:
Must Start – Should be pretty obvious, but these are the guys who always start. Again, it isn’t just the very best guys. There are second and third tier arms in terms of market value that I’d start every time out. They don’t have an obvious split or weakness that would give you a better chance at picking off their poor starts. Some of them could be “No Coors Field”, but it’s predominantly set it and forget it.
Usually Start – If “No Coors Field” is 30/70 with the MS group, it’s more like 60/40 or 70/30 with this group. You have to have a reason not to start them right now in most formats. You might feel like you can spot them properly, but we’re just not that precise in identifying when a solid arm will falter. These guys are good enough to thwart any opponent even on something less than their best day. Yes, Jason Vargas is in this group. I know he was just roughed up in the Bronx by the Yankees. He still had a 10% swinging strike rate and has been below that mark just once this year.
Spot Start – Flawed talents. A lot of these guys are on the cusp of or have been in the Usually Start tier, but currently you’re looking to curate their starts a bit where you can. They could also be a US tier arm here temporarily. Pay very close attention to gamelogs of pitchers, get a feel for how they arrived at their bottom line numbers. Not all ERAs are created equally and that’s why it’s not a talent gauge at all.
Could Start – I know many of you are dealing with some brutal pitching staff conditions right now after drafting a rotation you thought would be a strength (had one guy show me his Thor, Bumgarner, Paxton DL… yes, seriously), so you might find yourself in this tier a little more than you’d like. There is some talent to be and plucking the right two-start week could really set you up. This is essentially the Spot Star tier for single leagues or super-deep mixers (16+ teams).
Don’t Start – You don’t want to be here. This is when you start looking at middle relievers as the better option. You’ll see what I mean.
Injured – I find it hard/worthless to rank injured guys. I just think the outlook on injured players varies so much person-to-person that you can’t really use an injured player’s ranking for anything. I will identify the tier I’d put the injured guy in when healthy, though.
Minors – These guys aren’t in the majors. You needed that explanation, didn’t you?
Where do Seth Lugo and Jeff Hoffman fit in?
Spot starters, dangit… he didn’t make my transfer sheet bc I wasn’t even thinking of him in May. My bad.
Jack. How would you rate this rotation?
Yu Darvish Tex – P
Zack Godley Ari – P
Seth Lugo NYM – P
Marco Estrada Tor – P
Steven Matz NYM – P
Ivan Nova Pit – P
Sean Newcomb Atl – P
Drew Pomeranz Bos – P
Jordan Montgomery NYY – P
Aaron Sanchez Tor – P
Noah Syndergaard NYM – P
Man, I just can’t get used to these tiers and what they mean/how to use them. Just give us top to bottom rankings and let us decide when to start them…
How are you not still deciding?! Tiers are way more useful because there just isn’t much difference between say 55 and 80 so trying to zero in on a single ranking is silly, IMO.
Paul, thank you. Excellent stuff. Thanks for doing it.
Matt Moore — DS. Ouch. 48 to 76 to 136. Ouch.
Ya, I’m fully done. I’ll take my Matt Moore L (acquired early and strengthened over the years) and just be done with it lol
I’m still not sure whether you thought people would be shocked by the Ray ranking because it’s too high or too low…
I don’t think it should be seen as too high or too low, but I’ve been a Ray skeptic for a while, so boosting him up might be a surprise for those familiar with my history on him
Maybe, but I’m still surprised to see guys like Taillon and Fulmer ranked ahead of him
2 spots. Essentially meaningless. The tier matters.
Yeah, I’m more interested in the Taillon spot. Wow, that’s high…
I just don’t see any scenarios where I’m sitting him
Funny.I was thinking of the same two guys. Do you think they’ll be in their respective rotations 6 weeks from now?
You were thinking Lugo & Hoffman, too? They’re SS and I think they will be in their rotations.
Well Hoffman. Not sure about Lugo’s health.
Sonny Gray sitting right on the US/SS tier break…think something as simple as him getting moved to even a half decent defensive team bumps him up?
Absolutely bc I had him as US and then moved him down specifically bc of the defense
Love the rankings. Thanks. A few comments:
Where would you put Homer Bailey?
I’m ready to sell low on Cueto, but you’re giving me hope with him at #11.
I’m surprised Jimmy Nelson and Zack Godley aren’t even higher.
Paxton has been bad since coming off the DL. Still hurt?
Jason Vargas’ 4.69 xFIP and 4.50 SIERA are right in line with his career averages. Can we really count on a flyball pitcher with a 86 mph fastball maintaining elite HR suppression (5.3 % HR/FB)? Esp. if he gets traded out of Kauffman
Paul, I really like the setup of the tiers. I’ve got several shares of Marco Estrada. What do you think is going on with him? He’s not going to be a Usually Start much longer.
Seth Lugo is a seriously underrated guy
If you have an open spot on your DL tier I’d move shoemaker there!
Love the work, helps a ton with trade valuations just to gauge value on some of the harder to judge pitchers
Just want to chime in and say thanks Paul for all you do. It makes my enjoyment of fantasy, and thus of real baseball, even moreso. Thanks.
Is Paulino an oversight? I searched on my iPhone so if he’s there sorry.
Forgot to mention great list as always.
Matt Moore is way too low; ERA is artificially inflated (you seem to ding all pitchers of this ilk) and can definitely be started at home in deeper leagues.
Maybe he should be a CS instead of DS, but he’s not good and ppl should be scared to start him even in his good setups. I’m just over Matt Moore. I’ve watched TONS of him and was a long-time fan. He’s just so uninspiring.
Are we just ignoring Lance McCullers?
INJ/MS
I just traded Cody Bellinger for Verlander and was already starting to feel buyer’s remorse, so I’m glad he’s still in the top tier at least. Any idea how likely he is to stay there?
(For context, my rotation was Stras and Severino and pray for rain, so hopefully trading for Verlander and grabbing Taillon and Aaron Sanchez off the wire will stabilize things.)
As a Marcus Stroman owner I can’t get all of the love people have for him. Are we still going on the idea of his upside? At this point he is running almost a 1.30 WHIP, and less than an 8 K/9. Are you seeing something else in his arsenal that keeps him as a MS? His K/9 is one of the biggest issues for me.
When would you sit him? Must-Start isn’t just the elite, but also the strong “inning eaters” who have no discernible split to play off of. I just don’t see times I’m sitting Stroman in this environment.
Gerrit Cole has had a minor rebound but he’s been a tough one on which to hang one’s hat. You have him as a MS. Rough patch over and more consistency ahead or is this a case where the sawtooth performance averages out to top tier?
He doesn’t maximize his talent, I firmly believe that, but I also think it’s virtually impossible to sit him with any confidence. He’s frustrating bc we see how great he can be, but ya just gotta play him and live with the ups and downs, IMO
Sorry, I stopped reading when I saw Pineda as a MS and Severino as a US. That is just incorrect imo. Any Yankee fan would rather have Severino going than Pineda and I think that’s probably true for fantasy as well. Flip flop those two.
Not to speak for Paul, who I’m sure has his own reasons, but 1) it’s only six spots difference, so I doubt it’s written in stone, 2) I hate when Severino starts at home, his ERA is a full run higher over his career at YS and I think (anecdotally) he pitches differently, and 3) Pineda has had strong outings against good offenses like TB, BOS, HOU, BAL and then got roughed up by LAA, KC, PIT – there is no rhyme nor reason to when he pitches well, so you might as well start him every time and hope for the 60+ Game Score.
A reasonable person could disagree with my thought process, but Paul’s rankings of those two are certainly not so unjustifiable that you should have stopped reading. To each his own though, so happy trails to you.
Well, right on cue, Pineda gets bombed by the Rangers. He is just not a reliable pitcher, peripherals be damned. Gives up too many homers and just hangs that slider at the wrong time. Again, it is just painfully obvious that 1) Severino is better and 2) Pineda is NOT a Must Start pitcher.
Django really does cover my thought process here.
The idea that they’re vastly different is one I just don’t agree with so I’m fine if someone has a preference toward Sevvy. The idea of Pineda as must-start is: when are you sitting him? His bombs are at TOR, at LAA, and home v. TEX. There isn’t a home-only or road-only pattern, so you’re purely guessing and his component numbers are too good to pass up the gems in this environment. He has a 4.12 ERA, only six teams in my NFBC Main have a better TEAM ERA than that.
You don’t have to tell me about his volatility, I’ve been pointing out his flaws for the last couple of seasons, but in this current pitching environment, I just don’t see any way you’re really sitting him confidently knowing that THIS is when he’s going to have a bad start. If you want Sevvy in the MS, too, that’s fine, but I favored Pineda’s track record over Sevvy’s a bit. In essence, they’re just not that different: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=c,3,13,4,5,6,42,-1,120,121,113,217,-1,41,43,44,48,40,51,105,223,-1,45,62&season=2017&month=0&season1=2017&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=15890,5372
I like that your rankings are focused more on short term value than ROS value. I think you could do an interesting post or pod segment on players that are effected by this, in both directions. I.e. players that are ranked higher because they’re hot/healthy (alex wood?) or lower because they’re struggling/dinged up (paxton?)
Paul, you think Paxton is going to turn around his recent woes? Still injured? Thanks
who has better stats than alex wood? with 65 innings pitched the dodgers have the 1,3, 4 earned run leaders.
Thanks Paul. Where would German Marquez fit in?
Do these tiers factor in playing time? I’m specifically thinking about Clevinger: would he remain at 94 (CS) if his spot in the rotation was secure? Or is that ranking based on talent/performance alone?
Hey Paul, thanks for your due diligence, not just with the rankings but the chats too. It’s the only reason I get up in the morning. Well that, and I like to get the Daily News.
So if you re-rack, where would you slot in McCullers?
Nevermind, it would help if I read the whole entry.
For I am Costanza, Lord of the Idiots