Note: I was wanting to do Anthony Banda and Reynaldo Lopez but the camera angles for them are horrible so far. I do hope to write about them soon. In the meantime, check out newcomer Nick Pollack’s piece on Lopez. 

• Brandon Woodruff

• The 24-year-old righty started at the back end of several preseason top-100 lists. So far he’s made two starts for the Brewers and I watched the one on August 9th.

• Definite thrower. Everything is coming in at full effort. He just challenges hitters and hopes they miss.

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As we march toward the final month of the season, we will continue to see many new faces in starting pitching rotations. Let’s discuss a trip of such in the American League.

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I’m already thinking about 2018. It’s not that my teams are doing poorly; they’re fine, for the most part. It’s that the economist nerd in me, when thinking abut fantasy baseball, most often evaluates the disparities between perceived and actual values, and how long, if ever, it takes for the market (aka fantasy owners) to come to equilibrium, to use economic parlance.

For example: you may or may not be aware that Kevin Gausman, despite his atrocious start to the season, has been magnificent the last five weeks. In seven starts from July 2 onward, he’s posted a 3.24 ERA (supported peripherally by a 2.81 xFIP and 3.40 FIP) with 11.4 strikeouts and 2.6 walks per nine innings. The strikeout rate is fueled by a 15% swinging strike rate (SwStr%), which have come consistently, ascending into double-digit percentages in all seven starts (and in eight of his last nine). His strikeout-to-walk differential (K-BB%) by month: 2.0%, 8.8%, 9.2%, 23.4%, and, in one August start, 28.0%.

Meanwhile, he’s inducing ground balls almost half the time (49.5% GB). You could say he’s due for batting average on balls in play (BABIP) regression, and he probably still is. His BABIP constantly hovering above .349 does not inspire confidence, but few pitchers have ever been BABIP’d so hard in a single season — I discussed this phenomenon in regard to Robbie Ray. All said, while there’s no guarantee his BABIP regresses before October, Gausman still shows the promise we once expected of him — perhaps more — and it’s going largely unnoticed because of his downright repulsive first half. (He’s baseball’s #12 starter the last month.)

Such is the gist of this post, in which I’ll briefly touch upon players I anticipate to have average draft positions (ADPs) in 2018 that will lend themselves to relatively low-risk, high-reward opportunities in standard mixed leagues. Whether such expectations become reality is another story; that’s why I’m relying on ownership levels as a proxy for perceived value. All ownership levels likely retain some amount of draft day inertia, for better or for worse — in other words, leftover ownership (or lack thereof) in abandoned leagues — so take it all with a grain of salt.

Please note this is, by no means, an exhaustive list — just the first few players who come to mind, mostly because I’ve paid close attention to them all season.

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It’s been a big year for hitting without a doubt, but that doesn’t mean that we haven’t seen some great pitchers emerge. Guys like James Paxton, Alex Wood, and Luis Severino are winning leagues for people, but there are also plenty of intriguing arms who aren’t necessarily toting gaudy bottom line results. However, their skills and stuff set them up to be next year’s version of those guys and they are the ones you can buy now for a big 2018 payoff. We’ll span league depth with a couple deep league considerations, too.

Danny Salazar | Indians

Danny Salazar has been peak Salazar since his return from the DL and I’m pretty excited about his prospects down the stretch and beyond. He’s allowed just three runs in 20 innings since returning, with 28 strikeouts, five walks, and eight hits! We talked about him on the podcast right around his return, I wrote up his first and second starts in the Roto Riteup, and then Eno wrote up his new approach. We saw what he can do in 2015 with a 3.45 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and 195 strikeouts in 185 innings. Since then, his walk rate has spiked to 11% and he’s been DL’d with both elbow and shoulder injuries, but he’s still just 27 with top-flight skills.

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We are in the dog days of the season now. Some of you have already transitioned to fantasy football (how dare you!), some of you are trying your best to stay engaged, but summer activities are tough to ignore, and then the rest of you are fully engaged – meticulously staying abreast of every bullpen change, every lineup move, and prospect call-up. I want to take a quick look at eight interesting starters and even those of you in the latter group hopefully garner something useful about these intriguing names.

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A week ago, I discussed some of the surprising and notable names atop the American League starting pitcher last 30 day strikeout rate leaderboard. Today, let’s check in on those pitchers that find themselves at the bottom.

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You’re all familiar with pros and cons lists. Today’s subject is pitcher German Marquez from the Colorado Rockies. The 22-year old righty has had an impressive rookie campaign spurred by a two-month hot stretch that is ongoing. He was a top 100 prospect across the industry this year, charting 52nd on Eric Longenhagen’s list, but didn’t get much buzz because of his home ballpark. His quality pitching and the success of Colorado have forced us to take notice.

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It was a relatively unexciting trade deadline as fewer big names switched uniforms than usual. No, I don’t have any actual data to back that up, but I feel like I’m probably right. Anyhow, one of the bigger names to switch teams was Sonny Gray, as he departs the West coast for the East, joining the New York Yankees. Let’s analyze the park factors, the team defenses, and offensive support to help determine how this affects his value over the rest of the season.

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As I have been known to do, let’s take our every-so-often look at American League starting pitchers who are currently making a surprise appearance atop the last 30 day strikeout rate leaderboard. Since pitchers change so much more frequently than hitters, whether due to fluctuations in velocity or an adjustment to pitch mix, it’s far more valuable to analyze small sample pitching performance than hitting performance.

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Lance McCullers was highly sought after this draft season. He was the 40th SP on average in NFBC drafts, but went as high as the early-20s among pitchers, making him a top 100 pick in those cases. A couple rough starts in April left him with a 4.34 ERA, but then he reeled off a 1.51 ERA for eight starts before a sore back put him on the DL. It was his third DL stint since the start of 2016 and a continuation of injury issues that have haunted him throughout his pro career (high of 104.7 IP in the minors). It’s been rough since his return. He has a 7.13 ERA in five starts and hasn’t gone six innings in any of them.

So what’s going on?

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