Low-Ownership Starters for Friday (9/22)
September 21, 2017
I’ll be looking at starters owned in less than 30% of CBS leagues.
Archive for Starting Pitchers
Low-Ownership Starters for Thursday (9/21)
The march towards inning caps and strikeout titles continues with today’s lowly owned pitchers (<10% in Yahoo! leagues)
Gabriel Ynoa (0% owned) vs. Rays (Matt Andriese)
I spent way too much time analyzing Ynoa (I’ve decided to do a Quick Look on him and Leiter tomorrow). He’s shown some major-league talent and may just be one pitch from being a top-50 starting pitcher.
The 24-year-old throws a 4-seamer, sinker, and a slider. He throws his slider (35%) more than either fastball (28% for each) to help his strikeout numbers. This season, he has allowed an above average rate of flyballs (32% GB%) but maintained a respectable 1.1 HR/9. His 7.6 K/9 is reasonable, especially paired up with a 1.9 BB/9. Both values are in line with his recent minor-league performance. Signs point to a potential sleeper but I have my doubts about a pitcher’s upside with only one breaking pitch.
I would gladly start him this game against Tampa who leads the majors in striking out. My only reservation is if he gives up too many home runs in Camden Yards and runs up his ERA.
Low-Ownership Starters for Wednesday (9/20)
by Paul Sporer
September 19, 2017
I’m continuing Jeff’s series of looking at widely available starters who might be worth a stream in the final days of the season. I think Jeff was using a 10% or lower threshold, but I bumped it to 20% for one guy because I think he’ll still be out there in a ton of leagues and worth a scoop. These are ranked in order of how much I like them, but I’ll have a concise ranking at the bottom that shows the drop offs in confidence:
Tyler Chatwood, COL (18%) at SF (Moore)
Chatwood on the road has been one of the more bankable streamers for the last two seasons. Last year, he posted a nice 1.69 ERA in 80 IP away from Coors, in spite of a meager 1.7 K/BB ratio. He’s up to 3.41 in 71.3 IP this year while actually lowering his K/BB down to 1.5. He has a career 1.67 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, and 3.0 K/BB ratio at AT&T Park over 43 IP, including just 1 ER in 22 IP there since the start of last year.
Low-Ownership Starters for Tuesday (9/19)
Our series on low ownership starters continues with those pitchers owned in less than 10% of Yahoo! leagues who are expected to throw Tuesday.
Travis Wood (1% at Yahoo) vs Diamondbacks (Zack Godley)
I put the minimum strikeout rate needed for streaming consideration at 6.5 K/9. Wood just meets the benchmark but that’s it for his positive traits. His BB/9 is a 4.2. He has a 6.80 ERA. His ERA estimators are near 5.50. He’s facing Zack Godley and Diamondbacks, so the Win chances are slim. Probably look elsewhere.
Low-Ownership Starters for Saturday (9/16)
Here’s your daily dose of lowly owned starters. When Ubaldo Jimenez is the top choice, owners should know today’s pickings are slim.
Max Fried (1% owned) vs Mets (Jacob deGrom)
I can’t come up with a reason to start Fried. Also, I can’t come up with a good pun. His strikeout rate (6.5 K/9 with upside) is acceptable for these lowly owned starters but that’s where the positive traits end. He’s always had walk issues and his walk rate (5.9 BB/9) is almost higher than his strikeouts. His near five ERA (4.70) is near his ERA estimators. Also, he hasn’t gone far into his games to even get a Win averaging just 4.1 IP per start. The low strikeout and low win chances mean a pass for me.
Fresh for the Playoffs – Pre-Playoff Fatigue Units
Fatigue units attempt to physiologically represent the workloads pitchers face. This includes velocity, days of rest, pitches per inning, and even the pace they pitch. Pitchers with extreme workloads were 2.7x more likely to have Tommy John surgery when compared to pitchers with moderate workloads. Who has worked the hardest in 2017?
Low-Ownership Starters for Friday (9/15)
Here are my thoughts on some lowly owned pitchers throwing tomorrow (<10% in Yahoo! leagues).
Sean Newcomb (9% owned) vs. Mets (Rafael Montero)
Why not? He’s what streaming is about, strikeouts and maybe a Win. He has a 9.4 K/9 on the season with 11.6 K/9 in AAA. He’s facing a beatable Mets team with Montero on the mound. While he’ll walk more than a batter every other inning inflating the owner’s WHIP and ERA, owners know these lowly guys have some negative traits. At least Newcomb as some positive ones, too.
Low-Ownership Starters for Thursday (9/13)
After the feedback from yesterday’s post on low ownership starters, I may continue this series until the season’s end. All these pitchers featured are owned in less than 10% of Yahoo! leagues.
Additionally, I’ve added the opposing team’s strikeout rate for reference. The league average is 21.6%.
Chad Bettis (5% owned) vs Arizona (Zack Godley, 23.9% K%))
After returning from beating cancer, Bettis is not throwing his best. His fastball velocity is down ~2 mph from last season (91.7 mph to 89.8 mph). The velocity loss could explain why his home run rate (2.1 HR/9) is at a career high.
Besides giving up a ton of home runs, the velocity loss has pushed his strikeout rate (6.0 K/9) to a career low. One favorable aspect is a career low walk rate (1.3 BB/9). Pulling the preceding data points together, he’s a below average starter with little chance for strikeout and ERA help (WHIP could be OK with the low number of walks).
The Rockies are trying to secure a Wild Card spot and that is what Bettis is now, a chance for a Win. Not much else.
Daniel Gossett (1% owned) at Red Sox (Drew Pomeranz, 19.2% K%) Read the rest of this entry »
Low-Ownership Starters for Wednesday
It’s that time of year when teams will be churning through starting pitchers hope to improve their Strikeout and Win totals. Here are my thoughts on some lowly owned guys (under 10% owned):
Buck Farmer (1% Yahoo) at Cleveland (vs. Mike Clevinger)
Just looking on the surface, I would say roll with Farmer and collect some strikeouts (8.9 K/9) and take an ERA hit. The problem is that those strikeouts came early in the season. In his major-league stint in June, he posted 11.2 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9. Since returning, those numbers are 5.9 K/9 and 4.0 BB/9. There’s no guarantee his strikeouts will return.
Additionally, his flyball nature (48% FB%) has pushed his home run rate up to 1.7 HR/9. The home runs have inflated his ERA up to 6.32 with his ERA estimators hovering around five.
With Cleveland hitting on all cylinders right now, the Win is unlikely. With little chance for the Win and strikeouts, I would pass on him. Read the rest of this entry »
Quick Looks: Peters & Junis
• The 24-year-old, 5’9 lefty throws straight to home (no weird angles) from ¾ arm slot. I watched his last start from September 6th when he faced the Nationals.
• Fastball: 88-92 mph and it usually had a late dip. A few other times it had as much rise as a normal four-seamer. Looking at the pitch information, it seems to be just one pitch considering the spin axis. One possible explanation is that he lost fastball velocity as the game went on.