Though he is owned sparingly in fantasy leagues, Sam Gaviglio is a slightly above-average American League pitcher in terms of ERA, WHIP and strikeout rate. His current season, however, is nothing short of extreme.

The typical pitcher in 2018 is less attached to the strike zone. Over the previous eight seasons, Zone% had largely held steady year-to-year, ranging from a low of 44.2 percent in 2013 to a high of 45.8 percent in 2010. So far in 2018, the major league average Zone% is down to 43.1 percent.

While the average pitcher has slightly loosened his grip on throwing in the strike zone, Sam Gaviglio has been radical in his eschewing of the zone. Over 74.1 innings in his rookie 2017 season, split between the Mariners and Royals, a control-minded Gaviglio threw exactly half of his 1,126 pitches in the strike zone. This year, with the Blue Jays, the 28-year-old righty has gone wild, locating only 38.3 percent of his pitches in the zone.
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A week ago, I listed and discussed eight starting pitchers who have enjoyed the biggest jumps in fastball velocity. As the weather warms, velocity rises on average, so we would expect the typical starter to post an average velocity higher in June than May. But that isn’t the case for everyone, of course. So let’s discuss six whose fastball velocity is actually down from May. It’s not an automatic red flag or sign of injury, but it’s something to monitor as it could lead to performance decline.

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Over the last few seasons, I have become a more aggressive pitch-and-ditcher. While I have not reached the point of taking action — either adding or dropping — on the basis of a single start, I have come to realize that a new direction taken by a pitcher in back-to-back starts often goads me into considering a move.

Two starts don’t quite represent a trend, but if you wait for a pitcher to show clear signs of trending in a new direction, you usually lose an opportunity to add pitchers who are moving in a positive direction. You may also be unnecessarily saddling yourself with bad starts from a slumping pitcher in the name of patience.
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Brad Keller is a 22-year old rookie for the Kansas City Royals, who they acquired from the Cincinnati Reds after they Rule 5 drafted him off Arizona last winter. He’s in the majors after a Double-A season that saw him post a 4.68 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, and 9% K-BB rate over 131 innings. He made the Hard-Throwing Relievers section of Eric Longenhagen’s KC prospects list. He spent the first two months of the season in that role, leaning on a 95 mph sinker to post a 2.01 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in 22 innings, but just a 7% K-BB rate.

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Short answer

Yes, Dereck Rodriguez been decent and could get significantly better. Pick him up in all formats because if you don’t, someone else soon will.

Long answer

I had my doubts when I heard the 26-year-old-righty got promoted to the big leagues. The main reason his promotion got any press was that he’s Ivan Rodriguez’s son. In all fairness, no one was on him. I couldn’t find a specific prospect report on him.

The Twins drafted the high school outfielder in the 2011 draft’s sixth round. In 2014, he decided to pitch fulltime which might explain the lack of prospect reports. I was able to find a couple articles when he made the transition from hitter to pitcher which provide some insight.

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We know that the average pitcher gains velocity as the season wears on, typically adding around a mile an hour by the end of the year versus where he began. But, obviously, not every pitcher follows that pattern. So it would be beneficial to learn which pitchers have gained significant velocity month-to-month, as it might portend improved results. Let’s discuss eight starting pitchers who have gained the most velocity from May to June.

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Matt Boyd was terrible last year. In fact, let’s just be really honest and acknowledge that he was pretty bad through the first 290 innings of his career with a 5.47 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, and 11% K-BB rate. His best effort through three seasons was a 4.53 ERA and 1.30 WHIP back in 2016. While never a Top 100 guy, Boyd was a prospect of some acclaim and expectations had him becoming a capable backend starter.

He’s starting to meet those expectations with a 3.23 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 75 innings so far this season. His success has perplexed analysts and fantasy players alike as no one can seem to make sense of how he’s throwing the best baseball of his career despite virtually no change to his base skills. I decided to dive in and see what’s going on.

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Last week I re-introduced my hitter prospect finder and today, the pitchers take center stage. The process uses K%-BB%, age, and level as inputs to find potential off-the-radar prospects.

While the hitter finder finds all the top hitters from scouting sources, the pitcher is not as robust. It just looks at results which sometimes can be off with known fastball velocities and pitch quality. Even though it doesn’t replicate the top prospects, I find it’s great at finding lesser-known targets.

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Remember Eno Sarris? Yeah, me neither. But I used to co-host the podcast with a guy who liked to talk about infield flyballs or pop-ups and their value for a pitcher. In essence, they are automatic outs. They almost never turn into hits and the rare times they yield a base runner is usually because of an error. Pop-ups are gold for pitchers. After years of thinking that pitchers had zero control once the ball left their hands, we now acknowledge the value of contact management for pitchers. Their arsenal and approach can improve their ability to induce poor, playable contact either on the ground or in the air.

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This year, I’ve been caught up on pitching. I investigated the nuance inherent to swinging strikes, indirectly made a case for completely abandoning the sinker with this piece comparing pitch type outcomes, and (maybe) identified the keys to unlocking pitcher BABIP and HR/FB.

Here, I’ve modeled swinging strike and ground ball rates using only pitch velocity movement. Surely, this work can be improved; my quantitative tool set, while fairly robust compared to the layman, is meager compared to the professional or even hobbyist statistician. Regardless, I think it’s pretty cool, and I hope it adds to the conversation constructively.

Mostly, this serves to satiate my own curiosity. Unfortunately, it may be denser than I expected — few answers are ever quite as simple as you hope them to be, I guess.

Existing Research

I linked to several of my own pieces above. Dan Lependorf wrote about estimating ground ball rates in 2013 at the Hardball Times, although its conclusions have an anecdotal slant. (It thinks about velocity and movement but doesn’t take the requisite steps to bridge the logic.)
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