Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.
I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. I should also note that I’ve updated the way I’m calculating the park factors for the two new minor league stadiums that the Athletics and Rays are playing in this year; I’m taking the one-year park factors from Statcast and regressing them towards neutral, with the one-year factors increasing in weight as more games are played in those stadiums (those series are still marked in yellow below).
With the season nearly complete, this article takes a final look at OOPSY’s projections-based top 60 prospects in an effort to give readers a jump start on the offseason.
Happy Friday, and welcome to the first Pitcher Playing Time Changes rundown of September! As always, there’s a lot to go over, with the injury hits continuing to come and teams like the Mets making significant rotation changes.
Change in Projected % of Team’s Remaining GS, 8/29 to 9/5
Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.
I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. I should also note that I’ve updated the way I’m calculating the park factors for the two new minor league stadiums that the Athletics and Rays are playing in this year; I’m taking the one-year park factors from Statcast and regressing them towards neutral, with the one-year factors increasing in weight as more games are played in those stadiums (those series are still marked in yellow below).
Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.
I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. I should also note that I’ve updated the way I’m calculating the park factors for the two new minor league stadiums that the Athletics and Rays are playing in this year; I’m taking the one-year park factors from Statcast and regressing them towards neutral, with the one-year factors increasing in weight as more games are played in those stadiums (those series are still marked in yellow below).
Happy Friday, and welcome to the last Pitcher Playing Time Changes of August! We’re running out of time on the regular season, which means a lot of pitchers are running out of time to return from injuries. Others, however, like Chris Sale, will come back and at least get the consolation prize of ending the year healthy and having pitched in MLB games.
Change in Projected % of Team’s Remaining GS, 8/22 to 8/29
The search for pitching help is never ending. Between injuries and ineffectiveness, fantasy players are always on the lookout for pitchers who are performing well who can provide some reinforcements. If you’re in an Ottoneu head-to-head league, the playoffs begin on Monday. Here are five starters who are rostered in less than 60% of all Ottoneu leagues who might be a benefit to your first-round playoff matchup.
This isn’t the same Justin Verlander who could carry a fantasy pitching staff for much of his career, but don’t be so quick to write off the seemingly ageless veteran. Since the All-Star break, he has a 3.05 FIP thanks to a miniscule home run rate and a pretty good strikeout-to-walk ratio. His ERA during this same period is more than a run higher than his peripherals would indicate, but because Ottoneu uses FIP-based scoring, it’s actually okay that he’s allowing a few more runs than expected, as long as he’s also preventing home runs too. Next week, he avoids the Giants’ series in Colorado and has a nice matchup against the punchless Cardinals in the pitcher-friendly ballpark in St. Louis.
Luis Morales has very quickly established himself in the big leagues after making his debut on August 1. He entered the season as the A’s top pitching prospect, though he’s pretty raw at this stage of his development. He only signed as an international amateur out of Cuba in January 2023 and had an absolutely meteoric rise through the Athletics’ farm system. He’s looked pretty dominant in the majors already; in his last three starts, he’s allowed just two runs total while striking out 18 in 18 innings. He’s got the skills and stuff to be a frontline pitcher for the A’s as he continues to develop. Next week is a nice two-start week against two pretty weak teams (@STL and @LAA) away from the launching pad in Sacramento.
Ian Seymour only recently made the jump to the starting rotation after making 12 appearances out of the Rays bullpen. Lucas Kelly featured him in his Hot Right Now column yesterday, writing:
Much of [Seymour’s] success can be attributed to his changeup. Its 16.0% swinging strike rate has been above average when compared to pitchers who have thrown at least 150 of them this season. With a small sample, Seymour’s fastball is performing better than you might expect, holding an 11.9% swinging strike rate. The pitch has a below-average Stuff+, Location+, and averages 92 MPH.
Some pretty violent mechanics led to some scouting reservations and put a cap on his potential ceiling as a prospect. His one start was excellent — a shutout affair with eight strikeouts in five innings — granted, it came against the Guardians who are the worst hitting team in baseball. Still, he’s lined up to face Cleveland again in his start next week.
After struggling to establish himself in Detroit to start his career, Joey Wentz has finally found some success in Atlanta, his third organization this year. While the results have been nice (3.43 ERA with the Braves), his peripherals paint a different picture. His FIP in Atlanta is a sparkling 3.03 but that’s almost entirely propped up by a miniscule 4.3% HR/FB rate. His strikeout-to-walk ratio is pretty mediocre and he’s dealt with some command issues in his recent past. You might be able to get away with a good start or two if his home run luck holds, but the foundation doesn’t look very solid.
Martín Pérez also got a passing mention in Kelly’s column yesterday, but I wanted to highlight him here too because he’s actually been surprisingly good for the White Sox this year. He’s running the highest strikeout rate of his career at 22.9% and the biggest difference is an emphasis on his cutter as his primary pitch rather than his sinker. His changeup has continued to be an elite weapon, but that pitch mix change has earned him a lot more whiffs than before. The big red flag is that his contact management peripherals all scream for some regression. He’s allowed a 12.9% barrel rate but just one home run this year and his xERA, xFIP, and SIERA are all more than a full run higher than his FIP. His start against the Yankees on Sunday might help you determine if you’d want to stream him next week for his start against the Tigers in Detroit.
There are many ways in which a person can enter a rabbit hole. Some dive straight in. They clap their hands together, give them a little rub, and dive. Others fall in, like a pedestrian walking headfirst into big red flashing “Don’t Cross Right Now” hand signage while staring at their phone with hard-wired headphones getting tangled all up in the obliviousness. This is the story of how one can fall into a lefty versus righty rabbit hole, somewhere between diver and pedestrian.
Welcome to the latest Pitcher Playing Time Changes, headlined by a significant shakeup in the Phillies rotation due to Zack Wheeler’s potentially-season-ending injury. Below are the latest changes.
Change in Projected % of Team’s Remaining GS, 8/15 to 8/22
Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.
I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. I should also note that I’ve updated the way I’m calculating the park factors for the two new minor league stadiums that the Athletics and Rays are playing in this year; I’m taking the one-year park factors from Statcast and regressing them towards neutral, with the one-year factors increasing in weight as more games are played in those stadiums (those series are still marked in yellow below).
