Archive for Starting Pitchers

Pitcher Playing Time Changes: July 25, 2025

Isaiah J. Downing – Imagn Images

Below are the latest significant projected playing time changes for pitchers, led by the Cardinals entering something of a new era for their rotation with Michael McGreevy taking over for Erick Fedde 페디.

Change in Proj. % of Team’s Remaining GS, 7/18 to 7/25
Name Team Old PT New PT PT Change Reason
Michael McGreevy STL 7% 16% 9% Taking Fedde’s rotation spot
Joey Wentz ATL 3% 11% 8% Has been getting stretched back out as SP
Richard Fitts BOS 6% 13% 7% Holding onto rotation spot with Houck setback
Brad Lord WSN 3% 9% 6% Moved to rotation
Joe Boyle TBR 6% 12% 6% Taking Bradley’s rotation spot
J.T. Ginn ATH 5% 10% 5% Should stick in rotation for a bit, percentage could go up if trades are made
Tanner Gordon COL 1% 6% 5% Taking Márquez’s rotation spot
Germán Márquez COL 19% 13% -6% Biceps tendinitis
Hayden Birdsong SFG 16% 10% -6% Optioned to AAA amidst control issues
Tanner Houck BOS 12% 5% -7% Pronator injury setback
David Festa MIN 16% 9% -7% Shoulder inflammation
Taj Bradley TBR 18% 10% -8% Sent to AAA
Erick Fedde STL 16% 0% -16% DFA’d

 

% Chg. in Proj. RP IP, 7/18 to 7/25
Name Team % Chg. In Proj. RP IP Reason
Nick Anderson COL 92% Will have contract selected
Kyle Hart 하트 SDP 73% Has been pitching well out of bullpen since call-up
Edgardo Henriquez LAD 72% Called up with more bullpen injuries
Tanner Houck BOS 69% If he returns this year, might not have time to get stretched out
David Robertson PHI 53% Signed to $6M deal, should be up early August
Alexis Díaz LAD 53% Called up with more bullpen injuries
Mason Fluharty TOR 49% Called back up
Trevor Richards ARI 47% Contract selected to help out in bullpen
Bowden Francis TOR 44% Might not be a rotation spot for him when healthy
Jon Gray TEX 36% Back from IL and pitching out of bullpen
Andre Granillo STL 33% Called back up to replace Fedde on roster
Caleb Boushley TEX 32% Should stick with Martin hurt and eat innings
Brad Lord WSN -39% Moved to rotation
Joe Ross PHI -41% Back spasms
Javier Assad CHC -43% Should have rotation spot when off IL
Joe Boyle TBR -46% Moved to rotation
Tanner Scott LAD -54% Elbow inflammation
Richard Fitts BOS -54% Should stick in rotation
Eric Lauer 라우어 TOR -54% Pitching too well in rotation to move out
Luke Jackson TEX -67% DFA’d
Derek Law WSN -100% Flexor surgery
Max Kranick NYM -100% Tommy John surgery
Ryan Burr TOR -100% Shoulder surgery

Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner: July 28–August 3

Credit: Bill Streicher-Imagn Images

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. I should also note that I’ve updated the way I’m calculating the park factors for the two new minor league stadiums that the Athletics and Rays are playing in this year; I’m taking the one-year park factors from Statcast and regressing them towards neutral, with the one-year factors increasing in weight as more games are played in those stadiums (those series are still marked in yellow below).

Reminder: the trade deadline falls in the middle of next week. Be prepared for some pitching chaos as teams swap starters and realign their rotations following the flurry of activity at the deadline.

Also, the August 2 game between the Braves and Reds is the MLB Speedway Classic. I honestly have no idea how the temporary field constructed at Bristol Motor Speedway will play. These are the proposed field dimensions: 330 feet down each of the foul lines, 400 feet to center field, 375 feet to the right-field alley and 384 feet to the left-field alley. I’d probably avoid starting either pitcher in that game which creates a difficult choice for what to do about Chase Burns.

July 28–August 3
Team Series 1 Matchup Series 2 Matchup Start Maybe Risky Sit
ARI @DET (136) @ATH (54) Brandon Pfaadt, Ryne Nelson, Merrill Kelly 켈리, Zac Gallen Eduardo Rodriguez (x2)
ATH SEA (8) ARI (17) JP Sears (x2) Luis Severino, Jeffrey Springs, Jacob Lopez, J.T. Ginn
ATL @KCR (135) @CIN (59) Spencer Strider Grant Holmes Dane Dunning (F), Joey Wentz, Bryce Elder
BAL TOR (109) @CHC (102) Dean Kremer, Trevor Rogers Zach Eflin (x2), Charlie Morton, Tomoyuki Sugano Brandon Young (?)
BOS @MIN (79) HOU (78) Garrett Crochet Lucas Giolito Brayan Bello, Walker Buehler Richard Fitts (x2)
CHC @MIN (79) BAL (178) Matthew Boyd (x2), Shota Imanaga Cade Horton Colin Rea, Ben Brown
CHW PHI (114) @LAA (56) Adrian Houser Jonathan Cannon Davis Martin (x2), Aaron Civale, Sean Burke
CIN LAD (70) ATL (70) Andrew Abbott Nick Lodolo Chase Burns (x2), Nick Martinez, Brady Singer
CLE COL (124) MIN (101) Slade Cecconi (x2), Gavin Williams, Tanner Bibee Logan Allen로건, Joey Cantillo
COL @CLE (133) PIT (129) Kyle Freeland Bradley Blalock, Tanner Gordon, Antonio Senzatela, Austin Gomber
DET ARI (69) @PHI (79) Tarik Skubal Casey Mize (x2), Reese Olson, Jack Flaherty Troy Melton
HOU WSN (125) @BOS (92) Framber Valdez (x2), Hunter Brown Brandon Walter Colton Gordon Jason Alexander
KCR ATL (100) @TOR (45) Seth Lugo, Kris Bubic Michael Wacha Noah Cameron Rich Hill (x2)
LAA TEX (102) CHW (93) Yusei Kikuchi José Soriano Tyler Anderson Jake Eder (F), Kyle Hendricks
LAD @CIN (59) @TBR (85) Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow Shohei Ohtani Blake Snell (?), Clayton Kershaw, Dustin May
MIA @STL (114) NYY (87) Eury Pérez Edward Cabrera (x2), Sandy Alcantara Cal Quantrill, Janson Junk
MIL CHC (59) @WSN (146) Freddy Peralta, Brandon Woodruff Jacob Misiorowski Quinn Priester, Jose Quintana Nestor Cortes (?)
MIN BOS (135) @CLE (133) Joe Ryan Zebby Matthews Simeon Woods Richardson (x2), Chris Paddack, Bailey Ober (?)
NYM @SDP (118) SFG (112) Kodai Senga Sean Manaea, Clay Holmes, David Peterson Frankie Montas (x2)
NYY TBR (126) @MIA (124) Max Fried (x2), Carlos Rodón Will Warren Luis Gil (?), Marcus Stroman, Cam Schlittler
PHI @CHW (100) DET (116) Cristopher Sánchez (x2), Jesús Luzardo, Ranger Suárez, Zack Wheeler Taijuan Walker
PIT @SFG (137) @COL (41) Mitch Keller (@SFG), Paul Skenes Bailey Falter, Mike Burrows, Keller (@COL) Andrew Heaney
SDP NYM (121) STL (116) Nick Pivetta Dylan Cease (x2), Yu Darvish Stephen Kolek Randy Vásquez
SEA @ATH (54) TEX (146) Bryan Woo, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, Luis Castillo (vTEX) Castillo (@ATH) Logan Evans (x2)
SFG PIT (185) @NYM (139) Landen Roupp (x2), Logan Webb Justin Verlander, Robbie Ray Carson Seymour (?)
STL MIA (107) @SDP (118) Sonny Gray Matthew Liberatore, Michael McGreevy Andre Pallante (x2), Miles Mikolas
TBR @NYY (87) LAD (80) Ryan Pepiot, Shane Baz Drew Rasmussen (x2), Joe Boyle (x2) Zack Littell
TEX @LAA (56) @SEA (121) Jacob deGrom (x2), Nathan Eovaldi Jack Leiter Patrick Corbin (x2), Kumar Rocker
TOR @BAL (146) KCR (112) Kevin Gausman Chris Bassitt (x2), Eric Lauer 라우어 José Berríos, Max Scherzer Easton Lucas
WSN @HOU (116) MIL (63) MacKenzie Gore Michael Soroka Brad Lord (x2), Mitchell Parker, Jake Irvin

Four Lesser Owned Surprise Starting Pitchers Among SIERA Top 40

Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

With nearly two and a half months left in the season, it’s time to either protect your pitching ratios if you’re at or near the top of the categories, or aggressively speculate on arms to hopefully gain additional points by the end of the season. One way to identify names to speculate on is by reducing the innings pitched minimum and checking out the SIERA leaderboard. That way you’ll get more recently recalled names in there too and although the sample size may be smaller, the wider search at least surfaces such names to further evaluate.

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Paul Sporer’s Updated 2025 Starting Pitcher Rankings

Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

I posted a preview of this in today’s SP Chart, but even that Top 75 has since changed so please use this as the reference going forward. Please feel free to post your questions & comments below, I’ll be in there responding all weekend. These aren’t meant o be ironclad through the rest of the season, any rankings update is a 4-6 week outlook for me so I’m not yet concerned about potential workload shutdowns and things of that nature. Additionally, this ranking specifically might have more of a 1-3 week shelf life with the Trade Deadline looming so I will run another update shortly after that if there are substantive changes across the league. I say “if” just because the deadline could be a dud if too many teams think they’re in it and no one really sells, but I don’t expect that as there should be enough true sellers already identified to facilitate some real movement.

Injured guys aren’t ranked outside a couple who are close to returning if I recall correctly. You can ask about someone, but if they’re not due back in the next week or two, I won’t really have much insight as it’ll be dependent on their health & return. There may be a few 6th-starter types ranked here as opposed to making sure I got 5 guys per team in the Top 150 as we don’t really need every Rockie on the list.

Without further ado:

Zebby & Sheehan added Saturday AM (7/19)

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Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner: July 18–27

Credit: Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. I should also note that I’ve updated the way I’m calculating the park factors for the two new minor league stadiums that the Athletics and Rays are playing in this year; I’m taking the one-year park factors from Statcast and regressing them towards neutral, with the one-year factors increasing in weight as more games are played in those stadiums (those series are still marked in yellow below).

Note: due to the All-Star break, the Week 17 Ottoneu matchup runs for 10 days from July 18–27. If your head-to-head league has a games started cap, the number of starts doesn’t change even with the additional days. That means you’ll have a lot more starts to pick from to hit your cap — you’ll want to be extra judicious when picking your starters this week. I’ve separated this weekend’s games from next week’s into two tables below for a little more clarity.

July 18–20
Team Series 1 Matchup Start Maybe Risky Sit
ARI STL (129) Merrill Kelly 켈리 Brandon Pfaadt, Ryne Nelson
ATH @CLE (167) JP Sears, Luis Severino Jeffrey Springs
ATL NYY (42) Spencer Strider Grant Holmes Joey Wentz
BAL @TBR (81) Charlie Morton, Trevor Rogers Dean Kremer
BOS @CHC (90) Garrett Crochet Lucas Giolito Brayan Bello
CHC BOS (75) Shota Imanaga, Matthew Boyd Colin Rea
CHW @PIT (146) Adrian Houser Jonathan Cannon, Aaron Civale
CIN @NYM (104) Andrew Abbott Nick Lodolo Nick Martinez
CLE ATH (87) Slade Cecconi, Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams
COL MIN (94) Kyle Freeland, Germán Márquez Antonio Senzatela
DET @TEX (100) Tarik Skubal Reese Olson Keider Montero
HOU @SEA (108) Framber Valdez Brandon Walter, Lance McCullers Jr.
KCR @MIA (123) Seth Lugo, Kris Bubic Michael Wacha
LAA @PHI (52) José Soriano, Yusei Kikuchi Tyler Anderson
LAD MIL (59) Tyler Glasnow Emmet Sheehan, Clayton Kershaw
MIA KCR (105) Sandy Alcantara Janson Junk Cal Quantrill
MIL @LAD (93) Freddy Peralta Quinn Priester, Jose Quintana
MIN @COL (80) Joe Ryan Chris Paddack, Zebby Matthews (?)
NYM CIN (122) Sean Manaea, Clay Holmes, David Peterson
NYY @ATL (103) Max Fried Will Warren, Carlos Rodón
PHI LAA (84) Jesús Luzardo, Ranger Suárez Taijuan Walker
PIT CHW (155) Bailey Falter, Mike Burrows, Andrew Heaney
SDP @WSN (128) Dylan Cease, Nick Pivetta Yu Darvish
SEA HOU (79) Logan Gilbert Luis Castillo Logan Evans
SFG @TOR (52) Logan Webb Robbie Ray Justin Verlander
STL @ARI (78) Sonny Gray Andre Pallante, Miles Mikolas
TBR BAL (113) Ryan Pepiot Taj Bradley, Zack Littell
TEX DET (67) Nathan Eovaldi Patrick Corbin, Kumar Rocker
TOR SFG (142) Chris Bassitt, José Berríos Eric Lauer 라우어
WSN SDP (144) MacKenzie Gore Michael Soroka Mitchell Parker
July 21–27
Team Series 2 Matchup Series 3 Matchup Start Maybe Risky Sit
ARI HOU (67) @PIT (146) Ryne Nelson, Merrill Kelly, Zac Gallen (@PIT) Gallen (vHOU) Eduardo Rodriguez, Brandon Pfaadt
ATH @TEX (100) @HOU (77) JP Sears Jacob Lopez (x2), J.T. Ginn (?), Luis Severino, Jeffrey Springs
ATL SFG (138) @TEX (100) Spencer Strider Bryce Elder, Grant Holmes Davis Daniel, Joey Wentz
BAL @CLE (167) COL (155) Charlie Morton, Dean Kremer, Trevor Rogers Tomoyuki Sugano (x2), Zach Eflin (?)
BOS @PHI (52) LAD (105) Garrett Crochet Lucas Giolito, Brayan Bello Richard Fitts (x2), Walker Buehler
CHC KCR (126) @CHW (141) Shota Imanaga, Matthew Boyd Cade Horton (x2) Colin Rea Chris Flexen 플렉센
CHW @TBR (81) CHC (40) Shane Smith, Sean Burke, Adrian Houser Jonathan Cannon, Davis Martin (?), Aaron Civale
CIN @WSN (128) TBR (97) Nick Lodolo, Andrew Abbott Brady Singer (x2), Chase Burns Nick Martinez
CLE BAL (149) @KCR (128) Joey Cantillo (x2), Slade Cecconi, Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams Logan Allen로건 (x2)
COL STL (91) @BAL (124) Kyle Freeland, Germán Márquez Austin Gomber, Bradley Blalock, Antonio Senzatela
DET @PIT (146) TOR (112) Casey Mize (@PIT), Reese Olson, Tarik Skubal Jack Flaherty (x2), Mize (vTOR) Keider Montero
HOU @ARI (78) ATH (79) Hunter Brown (x2), Framber Valdez Colton Gordon (x2), Brandon Walter, Lance McCullers Jr.
KCR @CHC (90) CLE (148) Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, Kris Bubic Noah Cameron (vCLE) Cameron (@CHC) Rich Hill (?!)
LAA @NYM (104) SEA (17) José Soriano, Yusei Kikuchi Kyle Hendricks (x2), Carson Fulmer (x2), Tyler Anderson
LAD MIN (117) @BOS (24) Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow Shohei Ohtani Dustin May, Emmet Sheehan, Clayton Kershaw
MIA SDP (136) @MIL (104) Eury Pérez (x2) Sandy Alcantara Edward Cabrera, Janson Junk Cal Quantrill
MIL @SEA (108) MIA (79) Brandon Woodruff, Jacob Misiorowski, Freddy Peralta Quinn Priester, Nestor Cortes (?), Jose Quintana
MIN @LAD (93) WSN (106) Joe Ryan Simeon Woods Richardson (x2), David Festa, Chris Paddack Bailey Ober (?)
NYM LAA (106) @SFG (168) Kodai Senga (x2), David Peterson Sean Manaea, Clay Holmes Frankie Montas
NYY @TOR (52) PHI (87) Max Fried Will Warren, Carlos Rodón Marcus Stroman (x2), Cam Schlittler
PHI BOS (50) @NYY (38) Zack Wheeler (x2), Cristopher Sánchez Jesús Luzardo, Ranger Suárez Taijuan Walker
PIT DET (75) ARI (66) Paul Skenes Mitch Keller (x2) Bailey Falter, Mike Burrows, Andrew Heaney
SDP @MIA (123) @STL (128) Dylan Cease, Nick Pivetta Yu Darvish Stephen Kolek (x2) Randy Vásquez (x2)
SEA MIL (86) @LAA (79) Bryan Woo (x2), George Kirby (x2), Logan Gilbert Luis Castillo Logan Evans
SFG @ATL (103) NYM (113) Robbie Ray, Logan Webb Landen Roupp (x2), Hayden Birdsong Justin Verlander
STL @COL (80) SDP (159) Sonny Gray, Matthew Liberatore (vSDP) Liberatore (@COL), Miles Mikolas, Erick Fedde 페디 (vSDP) Fedde (@COL), Andre Pallante
TBR CHW (128) @CIN (86) Shane Baz (vCHW), Drew Rasmussen Ryan Pepiot, Baz (@CIN) Taj Bradley, Zack Littell
TEX ATH (69) ATL (96) Jacob deGrom (x2), Nathan Eovaldi Jack Leiter, Patrick Corbin, Kumar Rocker
TOR NYY (46) @DET (94) Kevin Gausman (@DET) Gausman (vNYY) Max Scherzer (x2), Chris Bassitt, Eric Lauer, José Berríos
WSN CIN (110) @MIN (101) MacKenzie Gore Michael Soroka Jake Irvin (x2), Mitchell Parker Andry Lara (?)

Poll 2025: Which Group of Pitchers Performs Better?

Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-Imagn Images

The All-Star break is here! That means it’s time to get polling. As has become an annual tradition, I’m going to start by comparing starting pitchers’ ERA to SIERA, pitting the SIERA overperformers against the underperformers during the pre-all-star break period. This is the poll I began with back in 2013.

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Pitcher Playing Time Changes: July 11, 2025

Kim Klement Neitzel – Imagn Images

Below are the latest significant playing time projection changes for starters and relievers over the past week. The biggest news is Cam Schlittler‘s call-up, with his debut coming at the unfortunate cost of Clarke Schmidt’s UCL.

Change in Proj. % of Team’s Remaining GS, 7/4 to 7/11
Name Team Old PT New PT PT Change Reason
Cam Schlittler NYY 1% 11% 10% Called up to replace Schmidt
Shinnosuke Ogasawara WSN 3% 8% 5% Taking Williams’ rotation spot
Stephen Kolek SDP 12% 6% -6% Sent to AAA + Darvish back, King soon
Jameson Taillon CHC 18% 11% -7% Calf strain, out about a month
Trevor Williams WSN 11% 0% -11% UCL surgery
Didier Fuentes ATL 14% 0% -14% Sent back to AAA after looking nowhere near ready
Clarke Schmidt NYY 15% 0% -15% Tommy John surgery

 

% Change in Proj. RP IP, 7/4 to 7/11
Name Team % Chg in Proj RP IP Reason
Carson Fulmer LAA 206% Back in MLB as innings-eating reliever
Rico Garcia NYM 154% Has pitched well since call-up
Kolby Allard CLE 150% Back in MLB to take Herrin’s spot
Scott Alexander SFG 127% Back in MLB
Andrew Saalfrank ARI 100% Back in MLB after gambling suspension
Bailey Horn DET 100% Pitching well since callup
Blake Treinen LAD 53% Making good progress in return from injury
Chris Murphy BOS 49% Has quickly become key member of bullpen
Jordan Wicks CHC 35% Should continue to work in Flexen-y innings-eating role
Ben Casparius LAD 33% Back to bullpen with Glasnow back
Joey Lucchesi SFG 33% Miller injury means his lefty-ness is important
Ryan Thompson ARI -31% Scap strain
Mark Leiter Jr. NYY -31% Fibular stress fracture
Shelby Miller ARI -32% Forearm strain
Michael Soroka WSN -33% Likelier to stick in rotation with Williams out for year
Alex Lange DET -33% Setback in rehab
Tim Herrin CLE -34% Sent to AAA
Erik Miller SFG -36% Elbow sprain
Michael Kopech LAD -44% Meniscus surgery
Liam Hendriks BOS -46% Transferred to 60-day IL amidst setback
Janson Junk MIA -46% Pitching great since move to rotation
Hunter Strickland LAA -60% Shoulder inflammation, on 60-day IL
Joey Wentz MIN -80% DFA’d
Trevor Williams WSN -100% UCL surgery
Mitchell Parker WSN -100% Likelier to stick in rotation with Williams out for year
Slade Cecconi CLE -100% Pitching like rotation mainstay
T.J. McFarland ATH -100% DFA’d + elected FA
Zach Pop NYM -100% DFA’d
Ryne Nelson ARI -100% Pitching too well to move back to bullpen

Three Appearance Analysis with Tanner Houck: Part 3

Apr 20, 2025; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Tanner Houck (89) pitches against the Chicago White Sox during the second inning at Fenway Park.
Credit: Eric Canha-Imagn Images

Had you been rostering and starting Tanner Houck on April 14th, you likely wouldn’t have started him in his next outing on April 20th, assuming you were paying attention. On the 14th, he got blown up by the Tampa Bay Rays and exited the game early in the third inning after 11 earned runs crossed the plate. If that performance deterred you from staring him on April 20th, you were likely doubly annoyed when he turned in a decent outing against the White Sox. But look a little closer, and you will see pitches that should have been down, left up in the zone. You’ll see strikeouts on pitches that hitters who are not on the White Sox may have put over the fence. Who am I to call a good start bad? Houck got it done, but in this article, I’ll dive a little deeper to put it in context with his previous two starts in this final installment of The Three Appearance Analysis.

Part 1 | Part 2 | Part 3

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All About Pitcher Perceived Velocity

Mandatory Credit: Lon Horwedel-Imagn Images

On Sunday, I read the following comment on Rotoworld about Chase Burns‘ start:

His fastball was located well, but, as has been true in his first two starts, he doesn’t get tons of whiffs on the pitch. He had eight whiffs on 55 total fastballs in this one, with a whopping 16 foul balls. His fastball has below average extension and simply isn’t as elite of a pitch against big league hitters who can handle high velocity.

Sure enough, his four-seamer has generated just a 7.6% SwStk% despite the pitch averaging a scintillating 98.2 MPH. So it got me thinking about perceived velocity, which extension affects. If a pitcher is throwing 95 MPH, but the batter perceives the pitch’s velocity to actually be 97 MPH, or perhaps 93 MPH, that should matter, right? I would therefore think the gap between perceived and actual velocity would influence the pitch’s whiff rate and the pitcher’s strikeout rate. So I decided to dive in and find out if that theory is true.

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Top Pitching Prospects Review — Jul 7, 2025

Mandatory Credit: Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images

Last week, I reviewed how the top hitting prospect have performed in the Majors this year. Today, let’s flip over to the pitching prospects. This time, I’ll be using the Post-Spring Training Top 100 Prospects Update, instead of the preseason list.

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