Archive for Starting Pitchers

Poll 2025: Which Group of Pitchers Performs Better?

Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-Imagn Images

The All-Star break is here! That means it’s time to get polling. As has become an annual tradition, I’m going to start by comparing starting pitchers’ ERA to SIERA, pitting the SIERA overperformers against the underperformers during the pre-all-star break period. This is the poll I began with back in 2013.

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Pitcher Playing Time Changes: July 11, 2025

Kim Klement Neitzel – Imagn Images

Below are the latest significant playing time projection changes for starters and relievers over the past week. The biggest news is Cam Schlittler‘s call-up, with his debut coming at the unfortunate cost of Clarke Schmidt’s UCL.

Change in Proj. % of Team’s Remaining GS, 7/4 to 7/11
Name Team Old PT New PT PT Change Reason
Cam Schlittler NYY 1% 11% 10% Called up to replace Schmidt
Shinnosuke Ogasawara WSN 3% 8% 5% Taking Williams’ rotation spot
Stephen Kolek SDP 12% 6% -6% Sent to AAA + Darvish back, King soon
Jameson Taillon CHC 18% 11% -7% Calf strain, out about a month
Trevor Williams WSN 11% 0% -11% UCL surgery
Didier Fuentes ATL 14% 0% -14% Sent back to AAA after looking nowhere near ready
Clarke Schmidt NYY 15% 0% -15% Tommy John surgery

 

% Change in Proj. RP IP, 7/4 to 7/11
Name Team % Chg in Proj RP IP Reason
Carson Fulmer LAA 206% Back in MLB as innings-eating reliever
Rico Garcia NYM 154% Has pitched well since call-up
Kolby Allard CLE 150% Back in MLB to take Herrin’s spot
Scott Alexander SFG 127% Back in MLB
Andrew Saalfrank ARI 100% Back in MLB after gambling suspension
Bailey Horn DET 100% Pitching well since callup
Blake Treinen LAD 53% Making good progress in return from injury
Chris Murphy BOS 49% Has quickly become key member of bullpen
Jordan Wicks CHC 35% Should continue to work in Flexen-y innings-eating role
Ben Casparius LAD 33% Back to bullpen with Glasnow back
Joey Lucchesi SFG 33% Miller injury means his lefty-ness is important
Ryan Thompson ARI -31% Scap strain
Mark Leiter Jr. NYY -31% Fibular stress fracture
Shelby Miller ARI -32% Forearm strain
Michael Soroka WSN -33% Likelier to stick in rotation with Williams out for year
Alex Lange DET -33% Setback in rehab
Tim Herrin CLE -34% Sent to AAA
Erik Miller SFG -36% Elbow sprain
Michael Kopech LAD -44% Meniscus surgery
Liam Hendriks BOS -46% Transferred to 60-day IL amidst setback
Janson Junk MIA -46% Pitching great since move to rotation
Hunter Strickland LAA -60% Shoulder inflammation, on 60-day IL
Joey Wentz MIN -80% DFA’d
Trevor Williams WSN -100% UCL surgery
Mitchell Parker WSN -100% Likelier to stick in rotation with Williams out for year
Slade Cecconi CLE -100% Pitching like rotation mainstay
T.J. McFarland ATH -100% DFA’d + elected FA
Zach Pop NYM -100% DFA’d
Ryne Nelson ARI -100% Pitching too well to move back to bullpen

Three Appearance Analysis with Tanner Houck: Part 3

Apr 20, 2025; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Tanner Houck (89) pitches against the Chicago White Sox during the second inning at Fenway Park.
Credit: Eric Canha-Imagn Images

Had you been rostering and starting Tanner Houck on April 14th, you likely wouldn’t have started him in his next outing on April 20th, assuming you were paying attention. On the 14th, he got blown up by the Tampa Bay Rays and exited the game early in the third inning after 11 earned runs crossed the plate. If that performance deterred you from staring him on April 20th, you were likely doubly annoyed when he turned in a decent outing against the White Sox. But look a little closer, and you will see pitches that should have been down, left up in the zone. You’ll see strikeouts on pitches that hitters who are not on the White Sox may have put over the fence. Who am I to call a good start bad? Houck got it done, but in this article, I’ll dive a little deeper to put it in context with his previous two starts in this final installment of The Three Appearance Analysis.

Part 1 | Part 2 | Part 3

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All About Pitcher Perceived Velocity

Mandatory Credit: Lon Horwedel-Imagn Images

On Sunday, I read the following comment on Rotoworld about Chase Burns‘ start:

His fastball was located well, but, as has been true in his first two starts, he doesn’t get tons of whiffs on the pitch. He had eight whiffs on 55 total fastballs in this one, with a whopping 16 foul balls. His fastball has below average extension and simply isn’t as elite of a pitch against big league hitters who can handle high velocity.

Sure enough, his four-seamer has generated just a 7.6% SwStk% despite the pitch averaging a scintillating 98.2 MPH. So it got me thinking about perceived velocity, which extension affects. If a pitcher is throwing 95 MPH, but the batter perceives the pitch’s velocity to actually be 97 MPH, or perhaps 93 MPH, that should matter, right? I would therefore think the gap between perceived and actual velocity would influence the pitch’s whiff rate and the pitcher’s strikeout rate. So I decided to dive in and find out if that theory is true.

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Top Pitching Prospects Review — Jul 7, 2025

Mandatory Credit: Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images

Last week, I reviewed how the top hitting prospect have performed in the Majors this year. Today, let’s flip over to the pitching prospects. This time, I’ll be using the Post-Spring Training Top 100 Prospects Update, instead of the preseason list.

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Three Appearance Analysis with Tanner Houck: Part 2

Apr 14, 2025; Tampa, Florida, USA; Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Tanner Houck (89) leaves the game against the Tampa Bay Rays in the third inning at George M. Steinbrenner Field.
Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

What happened!? That’s the question we ask the morning after a stinker performance by a starting pitcher when we’re looking over our fantasy results from the night before. It’s not an easy question to answer, and even when you come to a conclusion, someone else may have a completely different perspective. This article series serves as the starting point for answering that question in the context of three individual outings. Read the rest of this entry »


Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner: July 7–13

Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. I should also note that I’ve updated the way I’m calculating the park factors for the two new minor league stadiums that the Athletics and Rays are playing in this year; I’m taking the one-year park factors from Statcast and regressing them towards neutral, with the one-year factors increasing in weight as more games are played in those stadiums (those series are still marked in yellow below).

July 7–13
Team Series 1 Matchup Series 2 Matchup Start Maybe Risky Sit
ARI @SDP (134) @LAA (73) Merrill Kelly 켈리 (x2) Eduardo Rodriguez, Ryne Nelson, Zac Gallen Brandon Pfaadt (x2)
ATH ATL (95) TOR (86) Jeffrey Springs (x2), Mitch Spence, JP Sears, Luis Severino, Jacob Lopez
ATL @ATH (81) @STL (123) Spencer Strider Grant Holmes Bryce Elder, Hurston Waldrep (?) Didier Fuentes (x2)
BAL NYM (120) MIA (100) Charlie Morton Tomoyuki Sugano, Dean Kremer, Trevor Rogers Brandon Young (x2)
BOS COL (149) TBR (57) Garrett Crochet Brayan Bello, Lucas Giolito Richard Fitts (vCOL), Walker Buehler Hunter Dobbins (?), Fitts (vTBR)
CHC @MIN (107) @NYY (49) Shota Imanaga (@MIN) Matthew Boyd, Imanaga (@NYY) Cade Horton, Colin Rea, Jameson Taillon
CHW TOR (97) CLE (143) Adrian Houser, Shane Smith, Sean Burke (vCLE) Burke (vTOR), Jonathan Cannon Aaron Civale (x2)
CIN MIA (49) COL (130) Andrew Abbott Nick Martinez (x2), Nick Lodolo, Brady Singer (vCOL) Singer (vMIA), Chase Burns
CLE @HOU (102) @CHW (141) Gavin Williams Tanner Bibee (@CHW) Bibee (@HOU), Joey Cantillo (x2), Slade Cecconi, Logan Allen로건
COL @BOS (50) @CIN (86) Kyle Freeland, Germán Márquez Austin Gomber, Ryan Feltner (?), Antonio Senzatela, Chase Dollander
DET TBR (89) SEA (76) Tarik Skubal Jack Flaherty (x2), Reese Olson, Casey Mize Dietrich Enns 엔스
HOU CLE (164) TEX (148) Hunter Brown (x2), Framber Valdez Brandon Walter, Lance McCullers Jr. Colton Gordon
KCR PIT (129) NYM (100) Seth Lugo, Kris Bubic Noah Cameron (vPIT), Michael Wacha Michael Lorenzen, Cameron (vNYM)
LAA TEX (121) ARI (27) Yusei Kikuchi (vTEX), José Soriano (vTEX) Kikuchi (vARI), Soriano (vARI) Kyle Hendricks, Jack Kochanowicz, Tyler Anderson
LAD @MIL (86) @SFG (164) Yoshinobu Yamamoto Clayton Kershaw, Tyler Glasnow (?), Shohei Ohtani (?) Dustin May, Ben Casparius (F)
MIA @CIN (86) @BAL (104) Eury Pérez (x2) Janson Junk (x2), Edward Cabrera Sandy Alcantara Cal Quantrill
MIL LAD (68) WSN (72) Freddy Peralta (x2), Jacob Misiorowski, Chad Patrick Jose Quintana, Quinn Priester, Brandon Woodruff
MIN CHC (42) PIT (134) Joe Ryan Simeon Woods Richardson (x2), David Festa, Chris Paddack Connor Gillispie
NYM @BAL (104) @KCR (164) Clay Holmes (@KCR) Holmes (@BAL), David Peterson Frankie Montas, Sean Manaea (?) Blade Tidwell
NYY SEA (45) CHC (29) Max Fried Carlos Rodón Will Warren (x2), Clarke Schmidt Marcus Stroman
PHI @SFG (164) @SDP (134) Cristopher Sánchez (x2), Jesús Luzardo, Ranger Suárez, Zack Wheeler Mick Abel
PIT @KCR (164) @MIN (107) Paul Skenes (x2), Mitch Keller Mike Burrows Bailey Falter, Andrew Heaney
SDP ARI (58) PHI (118) Dylan Cease (x2), Nick Pivetta (vPHI) Pivetta (vARI) Stephen Kolek, Yu Darvish (?) Randy Vásquez
SEA @NYY (49) @DET (71) Logan Gilbert (x2), Bryan Woo, George Kirby Luis Castillo Logan Evans
SFG PHI (136) LAD (102) Robbie Ray, Logan Webb Landen Roupp (vPHI) Justin Verlander, Hayden Birdsong, Roupp (vLAD)
STL WSN (100) ATL (143) Sonny Gray, Matthew Liberatore Andre Pallante (x2), Miles Mikolas, Erick Fedde 페디
TBR @DET (71) @BOS (50) Shane Baz (x2), Ryan Pepiot (x2), Drew Rasmussen Taj Bradley Zack Littell
TEX @LAA (73) @HOU (102) Jacob deGrom (x2), Nathan Eovaldi (x2) Kumar Rocker, Jack Leiter Patrick Corbin
TOR @CHW (141) @ATH (81) José Berríos (@CHW), Chris Bassitt Kevin Gausman Bowden Francis, Max Scherzer, Berríos (@ATH)
WSN @STL (123) @MIL (86) MacKenzie Gore Jake Irvin, Michael Soroka, Mitchell Parker Trevor Williams (x2)

Ottoneu Drip: Finding Under-rostered Pitchers: July 3, 2025

Credit: Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Images

The search for pitching help is never ending. Between injuries and ineffectiveness, fantasy players are always on the lookout for pitchers who are performing well who can provide some reinforcements. Here are eight starters who are rostered in less than 60% of all Ottoneu leagues.

Under-rostered Starters, Last 14 Days
Player Team IP FIP K-BB% Stuff+ Pts/IP Roster%
Michael Soroka WSN 11.1 1.76 29.3% 95 7.81 57.67%
Eduardo Rodriguez ARI 16 2.90 16.9% 94 5.19 53.68%
Charlie Morton BAL 11 2.36 18.2% 105 5.76 46.63%
Trevor Rogers BAL 15.2 3.41 10.9% 92 5.24 26.69%
Adrian Houser CHW 13.1 2.64 9.3% 94 5.67 21.47%
Justin Wrobleski LAD 16 1.65 20.6% 101 6.89 19.94%
Dean Kremer BAL 12.2 1.51 23.4% 89 7.33 17.79%
Stephen Kolek SDP 16.1 2.23 15.6% 90 6.01 10.74%

Whether or not you believe in Michael Soroka’s resurgence or not boils down to how sustainable you think his home run rate is. He’s currently allowing a 1.52 HR/9 and 15.4% HR/FB, both of which aren’t out of the norm for his career. Under the surface, you’ll notice that he currently possesses a 3.75 xFIP, 3.34 SIERA, and 3.04 xERA, all of which are well below his 4.70 ERA and 4.33 FIP. He’s allowed just nine barrels all season long, is sporting an above average groundball rate, and the highest strikeout rate of his career. Almost all the damage has come against his four-seam fastball and the underlying performance of that pitch was slightly better in June (.304 xwOBA) than it had been during the first two months of the season (.347 xwOBA). I’m willing to bet that his results on the field will start to look a lot more like his peripherals over the next few months.

Eduardo Rodriguez was one of my favorite preseason sleeper picks — I love a veteran pitcher with a recent history of success because they’re so often undervalued, particularly in Ottoneu. It’s been an up-and-down season for Rodriguez; he had a 2.81 FIP through his first five starts, completely fell apart over his next four with 24 runs allowed in 16 innings, and then hit the IL with a minor shoulder injury. He returned at the beginning of June and has allowed just 7 runs in five starts with an excellent 3.1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. The ongoing health of his shoulder is a concern, but this version of Rodriguez over the last month has been a pretty useful starter.

There are three Orioles starters in the table above so I’ll tackle them all here. Charlie Morton has rebounded quite nicely from his miserable start to the season; since rejoining the starting rotation on May 26, he’s posted a 2.90 ERA and a 2.47 FIP across six starts. His start this week was pushed back to Friday thanks to some minor elbow inflammation, so that’s definitely something to monitor. Trevor Rogers has also looked solid since being recalled on June 18, posting a 2.87 ERA and a 3.41 FIP across three starts. Injuries had absolutely derailed his career but he looks healthy now and maybe he can regain some of the magic from his 2021 breakout with the Marlins. As for Dean Kremer, he’s on a nice little run of starts — a 2.61 ERA and a matching 2.60 FIP across his last seven outings. The only thing I can spot in his profile is a sharp increase in the number of splitters he’s throwing. It’s his best pitch so it’s nice to see the results follow.

I featured Adrian Houser in this column a month ago at the start of June and he’s continued to put up solid numbers for the White Sox since then. I noted that his changeup looked like it was fueling a lot of his success this year — that pitch still has a 42.3% whiff rate — but the results on his curveball have also significantly improved. That gives him two excellent secondary pitches to pair off of his bowling ball sinker.

With seven starters currently on the IL, the Dodgers’ rotation has been in shambles for most of the season. Of all the pitchers they’ve churned through, Justin Wrobleski looks like the one who is going to manage to stick around. He’s allowed just four runs across his last three outings with an excellent strikeout-to-walk ratio. His fastball’s 32.5% whiff rate sits in the 94th percentile for that pitch type and it’s a big reason why he’s been able to wrack up the strikeouts. One thing to note for Ottoneu players: the Dodgers have either used Wrobleski as a piggybacked bulk reliever or used an opener in front of him. That means you’ll need to pay attention to which day’s he might be scheduled to pitch and where you place him in your lineup. Head-to-head players will get an additional bonus for rostering him since his outings won’t count against your weekly games started cap — assuming the Dodgers continue to use him as a bulk reliever rather than a traditional starter.

The reason why Stephen Kolek appears in the table above is because his groundball rate is in the 85th percentile among starters with at least 60 innings pitched this year and his home run rate is in the 78th percentile. He doesn’t strike out that many and his walk rate is merely average. If you’re rostering him, you’re banking on those two skills carrying most of his value. The first should be fine but the second could be particularly volatile as the weather warms up.


Three Appearance Analysis with Tanner Houck: Part 1

Apr 9, 2025; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Boston Red Sox pitcher Tanner Houck (89) throws a pitch against the Toronto Blue Jays in the first inning at Fenway Park.
Credit: David Butler II-Imagn Images

Come with me, for a moment, down into the clubhouse of your favorite MLB team. Walk through the concrete halls and into the press room. Take a seat and wait for the manager to come in. Listen, you can hear it. Pencils, pens, iPad taps, all preparing to ask questions that press the manager, while also making the person asking them sound cool and trustworthy, like, “You can talk to me, it’s me! I’m cool. I’m not like these other press passers.” Here it comes, the classic question:

Press: What did you see out there with your starting pitcher today?

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Pitcher Playing Time Changes: June 27, 2025

Sam Greene-The Enquirer

Below are the latest significant projected playing time changes for pitchers in the last week, with Chase Burns‘ MLB debut the big headline. As always, you can see the rest-of-season percentages for each team on the Depth Chart diagram here.

Change in Proj. % of Team’s Remaining GS, 6/20 to 6/27
Name Team Old % of Remaining GS New % of Remaining GS PT Change Reason
Chase Burns CIN 2% 13% 11% Called up, and looks legit!
Braxton Ashcraft PIT 2% 7% 5% Moved to rotation, finally
Eric Lauer 라우어 TOR 5% 10% 5% Pitching very well in Francis’ stead
Keider Montero DET 12% 7% -5% Optioned to AAA
Ben Brown CHC 12% 7% -5% Optioned to AAA
Chris Sale ATL 19% 12% -7% Fractured ribcage
Nick Martinez CIN 16% 9% -7% Might do some more bouncing back and forth from bullpen with Burns up
Spencer Turnbull TOR 8% 0% -8% DFA’d
Max Meyer MIA 11% 0% -11% Season-ending hip surgery

 

% Change in Proj. RP IP, 6/20 to 6/27
Name Team % Chg in Proj. RP IP Reason
Nick Martinez CIN 191% Might do some more bouncing back and forth from bullpen with Burns up
Wikelman González CHW 178% Called up
Dedniel Núñez NYM 60% Likelier to stick in bullpen with Canning hurt
Austin Warren NYM 53% Likelier to stick in bullpen with Canning hurt
Jordan Hicks BOS 33% Nearing Red Sox debut
Mitch Spence ATH -31% Pitching too well in rotation to move back
Kumar Rocker TEX -38% Pitching well in rotation since recall
Hunter Bigge TBR -41% Facial fractures on foul ball
Max Kranick NYM -66% Elbow strain
José Ruiz ATL -69% DFA’d + outrighted
Matt Gage DET -74% DFA’d
Dylan Floro ATH -100% Released from MiLB deal
Hunter Stratton PIT -100% DFA’d
Kutter Crawford BOS -100% Wrist surgery
A.J. Puk ARI -100% Elbow surgery
Cody Bradford TEX -100% Elbow surgery