Category: SP Chart | Page 32 | RotoGraphs Fantasy Baseball

Starting Pitcher Chart – July 14th

July 14, 2023

The chart includes their season performance, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness over the last 30 days, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s basically a risky stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.

My buddy Nick Pollack suggested a new format for the piece and I think it looks cool, so I’m trying it out. Let me know what you think!

Edit: early feedback is that it’s a tough read on mobile, good to know

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Friday, July 14th Starter Notes

RK	PITCHER	TM		OPP	THR	10	12	15+	IP	ERA	WHIP	K-BB	OPP L30 wOBA	wOBA RK
1	Shohei Ohtani	LAA		HOU	R	x	x	x	100.1	3.32	1.10	22%	0.328	11th
Seems crazy to not start the MLB HR leader, but his SP numbers might fill a bigger need for a team
2	Luis Castillo	SEA		DET	R	x	x	x	107.1	2.85	1.04	21%	0.3	25th
Helluva 1st half for my AL Cy Young pick, he’s firmly in the mix!
3	Tyler Glasnow	TBR	at	KCR	R	x	x	x	41.2	4.1	1.22	27%	0.28	27th
Hitting a grove w/just 5 ER in his L3 combined with 31 Ks in 16 IP including the gem v. ATL before the break
4	Brayan Bello	BOS	at	CHC	R	x	x	x	80	3.04	1.19	14%	0.319	16th
Has gone 7 in 4 of his L5 and fell just an out shy in the other one
5	Corbin Burnes	MIL	at	CIN	R	x	x	x	107.1	3.94	1.14	14%	0.36	2nd
While he hasn’t been Cy Young level Burnes, he’s been good enough to still easily start in this tough matchup
6	Charlie Morton	ATL		CHW	R	x	x	x	97	3.43	1.41	16%	0.306	23rd
WHIP makes it tough to maintain such a nice ERA; still has value as a high-3.00s/low-4.00s guy in a lot formats
7	Sandy Alcantara	MIA	at	BAL	R	x	x	x	114.1	4.72	1.25	13%	0.332	10th
Solid close to the 1H: 2.89 ERA/1.26 WHIP/16% K-BB in 19 IP… I’m still starting in most spots every time out
8	Justin Verlander	NYM		LAD	R	x	x	x	70	3.6	1.20	13%	0.341	5th
Obviously not the Cy Young guy we saw last yr, but clearly still a start in most spots, even v. LAD
9	Eduardo Rodriguez	DET	at	SEA	L	x	x	x	71.2	2.64	1.00	21%	0.304	23rd
Rough return from the IL v. OAK but he’s a lineup staple; maybe the extra breather will help, too
10	Dean Kremer	BAL		MIA	R	x	x	x	98	4.78	1.37	16%	0.318	17th
Last 2 were gem (at NYY) & dud (v. MIN); matchup & 20% K-BB in L50 IP make him a worthy stream for me
11	Yu Darvish	SDP	at	PHI	R	x	x	x	85	4.87	1.27	17%	0.317	19th
Sticking with him despite the bumpy road as I’m not seeing any major concerns in the profile
12	Kenta Maeda	MIN	at	OAK	R	x	x	x	33	5.18	1.27	20%	0.274	29th
Excellent in 3 outings since his IL return instilling confidence: 1.59 ERA/0.94 WHIP/25% K-BB
13	Julio Urías	LAD	at	NYM	L	x	x	x	64.1	4.76	1.18	18%	0.304	22nd
Closed 1H strong (6 IP/2 ER/8 Ks) getting into his changeup w/season-high 26% usage… very hit & miss (6 60+ Game Scores; 6 Sub-50s)
14	Jon Gray	TEX		CLE	R	x	x	x	93	3.29	1.14	12%	0.322	15th
6 pt. dip in K% from last yr lowers his reliability going forward, but his ERA is down 65 pts
15	Miles Mikolas	STL		WSN	R	x	x	x	112.2	4.23	1.30	11%	0.316	20th
Running a 3.39 ERA over his L16 starts, allowing >3 ER in 4 and 3 were v. CIN, NYM, HOU so they aren’t trash lineups decking him
16	Cristopher Sánchez	PHI		SDP	L		x	x	25.1	2.84	1.03	18%	0.323	13th
One of my 2H breakout picks: decent sinker, great change, and bat-missing slider
17	Aaron Civale	CLE	at	TEX	R		x	x	52.2	2.56	1.06	13%	0.344	4th
Fully respect TEX so there are some sits here, but he’s been great lately so I’m rolling in many spots
18	Chris Bassitt	TOR		ARI	R		x	x	109.2	4.19	1.23	14%	0.322	14th
Been very hittable w/41 H & .417 BABIP in L6; sticking w/him in many lgs but I don’t love facing ARI
19	Graham Ashcraft	CIN		MIL	R		x	x	81.2	6.28	1.59	7%	0.303	24th
Don’t want to overreact to B2B useful starts; using him here and he’ll jump to team streamer w/solid work
20	Carlos Rodón	NYY	at	COL	L		x	x	5.1	3.38	1.13		0.311	18th
I knooooow it’s Coors, but I might take the shot. Generally start studs there but it’s his 2nd start of the season so I get sitting him
21	Paul Blackburn	OAK		MIN	R		x	x	37	4.86	1.54	17%	0.324	13th
Sub-10% SwStr in 3 of L4 after 12%+ in 3 of first 4; still has a 4.32 FIP & 14% K-BB in those L4
22	Ross Stripling	SFG	at	PIT	R		x	x	41	6.37	1.46	13%	0.272	30th
Hasn’t reached 4 IP in any of his L5 as it seems he’s being limited to no more than 2x thru the lineup… good matchup if you want some decent IP
23	MacKenzie Gore	WSN	at	STL	L			x	89.2	4.42	1.46	18%	0.327	10th
Hit hard of late against some strong teams incl. StL back on 6/20 (5 ER); perfectly viable team streamer
24	Kyle Hendricks	CHC		BOS	R			x	53.1	3.04	1.03	10%	0.334	9th
Feels like a thin margin for error w/the 6% HR/FB helping float his 4.85 SIERA… just be careful
25	J.P. France	HOU	at	LAA	R			x	66.1	3.26	1.21	10%	0.354	3rd
Generally avoid LAA but he’s handled toughest tests w/aplomb (2.70 ERA/1.27 WHIP/12% K-BB v. >.500+ tms) so I can find some starts here
26	Ryne Nelson	ARI	at	TOR	R			x	93.2	5.19	1.43	9%	0.308	21st
Unraveled 3-start surge w/7 ER dud v. NYM; 20% K-BB during the run w/a hot changeup, but NYM pounded the heater… keep tabs on him
27	Michael Kopech	CHW	at	ATL	R				86	4.08	1.36	13%	0.391	1st
I think we’re at Top 10 status only v. ATL and no shame in skipping them w/damn near anyone
28	Rich Hill	PIT		SFG	L				98	4.78	1.44	12%	0.316	15th
He’ll drop his gems throughout the season (6 starts of 55+ Game Score), but the downside is severe (9 under 50) making it a tough bet
29	Austin Gomber	COL		NYY	L				90	6.4	1.51	8%	0.374	4th
I see him on a bit of a roll: 3.99 ERA/1.03 WHIP/16% K-BB in 29 IP but I’m not sure it’s more than some run-hot and I don’t wanna be around for the crash
30	Alec Marsh	KCR		TBR	R				9	7	1.78	7%	0.327	12th
Keeping tabs on him but nowhere near starting until I see some improvement in the control

Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues

Starting Pitcher Chart – July 7th

by Paul Sporer

July 7, 2023

Daily SP Chart archive

The chart includes their season performance, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness over the last 30 days, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s basically a risky stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.

Pardon the very late post on today’s SP chart. If it’s not up the night before, it’s usually up by 8am CT, but I had the podcast and a conference call this morning and I just couldn’t get it done last night.

With the All-Star break on the horizon, I’m long overdue for an SP rankings update, so stay tuned for that!

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Friday, July 7th Starter Notes

RK	PITCHER	TM		OPP	10	12	15+	IP	ERA	WHIP	K-BB	wOBA RK	NOTE
1	Zac Gallen	ARI		PIT	x	x	x	111.1	3.15	1.08	22%	28th	4 ER in each of his last 2 v. TBR and LAA counterbalanced by 16 Ks and a 1.00 WHIP in the 13 IP
2	Luis Castillo	SEA	at	HOU	x	x	x	100.1	3.05	1.07	21%	14th	Does have a pretty sharp home/road split but I’m not sitting him in any format
3	Andrew Abbott	CIN	at	MIL	x	x	x	37.1	1.21	0.88	20%	9th	12 Ks in his first 3 starts had some wondeirng where that dominance from the minors was; 30 Ks in 3 starts since then!
4	Zack Wheeler	PHI	at	MIA	x	x	x	98.1	4.03	1.19	22%	21st	Like so many aces this yr, he has more than the occasional dud (relative to his established dominance) but it’s not actionable as he’s still an easy auto start
5	Bailey Ober	MIN		BAL	x	x	x	76.2	2.70	0.95	20%	8th	After allowing 5 HR in a 3-start run that saw his HR/FB start to regress, he has B2B HR-free outings w/16 Ks in 13 IP
6	Hunter Brown	HOU		SEA	x	x	x	91	3.76	1.25	20%	17th	The rookie righty is fulfilling the lofty preseason expectations and sits at SP42 coming into this start
7	Justin Verlander	NYM	at	SDP	x	x	x	64	3.66	1.19	15%	4th	A 3-run inning in HOU is the only real blemish over his L4: 1.80 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 19% K-BB in 25 IP
8	Yu Darvish	SDP		NYM	x	x	x	80	4.84	1.23	18%	7th	Still holding a Top 30 K-BB despite the near-5.00 ERA… I can’t see myeslf taking him out of the lineup
9	Corbin Burnes	MIL		CIN	x	x	x	101.1	4.00	1.13	15%	2nd	Hasn’t been the mega ace we expected this yr, but he has a 3.42 ERA since those 10 ER in his first 2 starts and I’m still starting him everywhere
10	Dylan Cease	CHW		STL	x	x	x	96.2	4.10	1.31	17%	6th	Had a huge June (2.20 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 28% K-BB) but then a modest outing at OAK (5.3 IP/3 ER) reminds us he’s not fully back to his ’22 self
11	Charlie Morton	ATL	at	TBR	x	x	x	90.2	3.57	1.44	16%	13th	The ERA, W, and Ks have him at SP41 so if you can eat the hideous WHIP, he’s a set it and forget type
12	Sandy Alcantara	MIA		PHI	x	x	x	107.2	4.93	1.25	12%	16th	If he can push his 62% LOB rate back toward his 73% career mark, there’s a strong 2H on tap, but there’s no guarantee unless the changeup gets a lot better
13	Jordan Montgomery	STL	at	CHW	x	x	x	98.2	3.28	1.24	16%	22nd	Raising his trade profile over the L7 with a 1.66 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and 17% K-BB in 43.3 IP
14	Aaron Civale	CLE		KCR	x	x	x	45.2	2.96	1.18	10%	30th	Just a meager 9% since returning from the IL, but can’t argue w/the 3.00 ERA & 1.24 WHIP in 33 IP… great matchup, too!
15	Carlos Rodón	NYY		CHC		x	x	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	21st	He’s back! Only reached 58 pitches in his last rehab outing (0 ER in 3.7 IP) so this could be a sub-5 IP outing even if he’s throwing well
16	Ross Stripling	SFG		COL		x	x	37.1	6.51	1.50	12%	18th	Not sure how stretched out he is with 50 and 24 pitches in his 2 outings off the IL
17	Tyler Glasnow	TBR		ATL			x	36	4.50	1.33	27%	1st	A .400+ wOBA for a team over a month period is absurd… no issues w/anyone skipping this spot
18	Griffin Canning	LAA	at	LAD			x	71.1	4.29	1.16	17%	11th	Rough 2nd inn. spoiled his ARI outing, though he was probably a sit in most spots anyway… I’m a fan, but likely passing at LAD
19	Rich Hill	PIT	at	ARI			x	94	4.50	1.38	13%	25th	Might be without Corbin Carroll, but still not a matchup I’d risk w/Hill even w/their meager output over the L30
20	Daniel Lynch	KCR	at	CLE			x	41.1	4.14	1.23	9%	20th	Turning a corner since the 7 ER Cincy dud? 2.00 ERA, 1.00 WHIP in L3 incl. starts v. TBR & LAD, though just a 3% K-BB
21	Tony Gonsolin	LAD		LAA				61	3.69	1.11	9%	3rd	ERA is up nearly 2 runs over his L3 starts (9.42 ERA, 1.70 WHIP, 9% K-BB) and I’m not sure it gets much better even w/Trout out for LAA
22	Cole Irvin	BAL	at	MIN			x	31.1	6.32	1.69	10%	28th	Nice 3.44 ERA since his return from AAA despite an ugly 1.49 WHIP… be careful
23	Alek Manoah	TOR	at	DET			x	58	6.36	1.90	2%	20th	It’s a good matchup coming of a 10-K gm in AA, but it’s probably best to wait-and-see… I would pick him up & reserve where available
24	Alex Faedo	DET		TOR			x	26	5.54	0.92	23%	23rd	Excellent K-BB in 5 starts before his injury, though the 6 HRs (2.1 HR9) were an issue
25	Jameson Taillon	CHC	at	NYY				63.2	6.93	1.52	14%	29th	There are no matchups where I’m comfortable starting Jamo these days
26	Trevor Williams	WSN		TEX				85	4.34	1.42	10%	10th	No thanks
27	Cody Bradford	TEX	at	WSN			x	21.2	4.98	1.15	19%	23rd	Threw 2.3 perfect IP on Monday so I can’t imagine this is more than a 2-3 IP outing
28	Luis Medina	OAK	at	BOS				53.2	6.37	1.64	7%	15th	No thanks
29	Austin Gomber	COL	at	SFG				84	6.64	1.56	8%	12th	#NeverGomber
30	Brennan Bernardino	BOS		OAK				26.2	2.70	1.09	18%	30th	The expectation is that this is an opener setup for Brandon Walter (4.74 FIP, 1.62 WHIP at AAA)

Recommendations for Roto 5×5 League

Starting Pitcher Chart – July 6th

by Paul Sporer

July 6, 2023

Daily SP Chart archive

The chart includes their season performance, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness over the last 30 days, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s basically a risky stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.

—

Read the rest of this entry »

Starting Pitcher Chart – July 5th

by Paul Sporer

July 5, 2023

Daily SP Chart archive

The chart includes their season performance, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness over the last 30 days, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s basically a risky stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.

—

Read the rest of this entry »

Starting Pitcher Chart – July 3rd

by Paul Sporer

July 3, 2023

Daily SP Chart archive

The chart includes their season performance, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness over the last 30 days, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s basically a risky stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.

FYI: The site is off tomorrow so the Tuesday SP Chart is TBD.

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Read the rest of this entry »

Starting Pitcher Chart – June 30th

by Paul Sporer

June 30, 2023

Daily SP Chart archive

The chart includes their season performance, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness over the last 30 days, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s basically a risky stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.

—

Friday, June 30th Starter Notes

RK	PITCHER	TM		OPP	10	12	15+	IP	ERA	WHIP	K-BB	wOBA RK	NOTE
1	Shane McClanahan	TBR	at	SEA	x	x	x	93	2.23	1.12	17%	14th	Left early v. KC on 6/22 (back) but I’m ready to slot him back into the lineup after the extra time between starts
2	Pablo López	MIN	at	BAL	x	x	x	96	4.41	1.16	23%	8th	K surge has been awesome w/9+ in each of his L3 and a career best 30% rate for the year
3	Justin Steele	CHC		CLE	x	x	x	79	2.62	1.06	17%	10th	Looks great in 2 starts off the IL w/12 Ks, 2.45 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, and 2 Ws
4	Jon Gray	TEX		HOU	x	x	x	81	2.89	1.05	14%	14th	TOR dud is the lone blip in an 8-start run during which he’s posted a 1.97 ERA and 0.84 WHIP
5	Bobby Miller	LAD	at	KCR	x	x	x	32.2	4.13	1.29	13%	26th	B2B duds after 4 gems to open his career with BB looking like the biggest issue (10%)
6	Freddy Peralta	MIL	at	PIT	x	x	x	81.1	4.65	1.33	16%	27th	BB rate up to 11% in L8 as he’s allowed at least 3 ER in all but 2 and yet one of the 2 ER gms is v. PIT so I’m sticking w/him here
7	Bryce Miller	SEA		TBR	x	x	x	55.2	3.88	0.97	17%	9th	Hit that first rookie wall w/15 ER in B2B duds, but has rebounded w/a 2.60 ERA & 0.99 WHIP since then
8	José Berríos	TOR		BOS		x	x	95	3.60	1.22	15%	13th	While he has returned to previous trustworthy state, there are still some shallow lg sits if you’re playing it safely
9	James Paxton	BOS	at	TOR		x	x	42.1	3.19	1.02	25%	4th	Don’t be afraid to sit given the matchup and fact that he left his last start w/a knee issue
10	Josiah Gray	WSN	at	PHI		x	x	89.1	3.43	1.40	9%	16th	3 rough outings in L6 and surprise, he allowed 2 HR in each! PHI’s 2% HR rate v. R at home is 3rd lowest in the lg w/just 2 10+ HR guys
11	Osvaldo Bido	PIT		MIL		x	x	15.2	3.45	1.47	18%	28th	ERA can’t survive w/that WHIP so something has to give… this is a good enough matchup to play the hot hand, but be very careful here
12	Dean Kremer	BAL		MIN		x	x	88	4.50	1.36	15%	23rd	Hasn’t paid for his 5 HR in the L2 starts with just 4 ER (6 total R); L7 K surge (24%) and spicy matchup are enough to take a shot in a lot of spots
13	Alex Cobb	SFG	at	NYM		x	x	78.2	3.09	1.37	16%	22nd	Your ability to take on the WHIP risk for a good ERA and solid W potential will determine how viable a streamer he is for you
14	Luis Severino	NYY	at	STL		x	x	36	5.25	1.50	10%	7th	2+ BB in each of his L4 and has eclipsed 5 IP in just 1 of them… would probably give a half “x” in 12s if that key existed
15	Griffin Canning	LAA		ARI			x	65.1	3.99	1.16	17%	4th	6 scoreless in Coors dropped ERA to 2.61 in L7 w/a 1.05 WHIP and 20% K-BB… not a must-start v. ARI, but hold even if you pass here
16	Cristopher Sánchez	PHI		WSN			x	13.1	4.05	1.05	21%	20th	I’m keeping tabs on him for deep lg pickup and if that changeup can be a true K pitch (7 Ks in 11 PA w/it so far), there’s some real upside here
17	Michael Soroka	ATL		MIA			x	9.2	8.38	1.86	-2%	12th	Looked great in 3 starts after being sent down (1.97 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, 14% K-BB) so I might pickup now even if I pass on the first start back
18	Cal Quantrill	CLE	at	CHC				59.1	5.61	1.42	5%	21st	Fresh off the IL and did allow 14 ER in his 2 starts prior to the absence… was that injury indication or signs of major trouble?
19	Ronel Blanco	HOU	at	TEX				35	4.63	1.51	12%	5th	June Gauntlet continues: LAA, TOR, CIN, LAD and now TEX… has survived 12% BB and 7 HR during this run
20	Seth Lugo	SDP	at	CIN				51.2	4.01	1.32	16%	3rd	Solid team streamer, but there’s no need to take this risk, especially fresh off the IL
21	Bryan Hoeing	MIA	at	ATL				35	2.31	1.20	11%	1st	Do we have yet another Marlins gem on our hands? Perhaps, but he hasn’t earned confidence to run at ATL yet
22	Tanner Banks	CHW	at	OAK				18	4.50	1.17	18%	30th	TanBan isn’t really stretched out enough to take advantage of this matchup
23	Michael Lorenzen	DET	at	COL				77	3.97	1.16	13%	18th	Has become a deep league team streamer and Coors is of course a skip
24	Carlos Carrasco	NYM		SFG				48	6.19	1.56	5%	10th	Hasn’t gone 5 IP in any of the last 3 starts and I’m not eager to stream against SFG right now
25	Graham Ashcraft	CIN		SDP				69	7.17	1.67	7%	15th	Perhaps the biggest spring riser to become a stone cold flop
26	Alec Marsh	KCR		LAD				#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	17th	Tough draw for his MLB debut
27	Matthew Liberatore	STL		NYY				27.1	5.60	1.65	5%	19th	Lack of development from the guy we saw last yr should have him on wires in virtually every lg
28	Tommy Henry	ARI	at	LAA				62.2	4.31	1.37	7%	13th	Can’t imagine starting any single-digit K-BB v. LAA
29	Luis Medina	OAK		CHW				48.2	6.84	1.62	9%	20th	Just too inconsistent
30	Austin Gomber	COL		DET				77	7.01	1.61	7%	15th	#NeverGomber

Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues

Starting Pitcher Chart – June 29th

by Paul Sporer

June 29, 2023

Daily SP Chart archive

The chart includes their season performance, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness over the last 30 days, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s basically a risky stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.

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Thursday, June 29th Starter Notes

RK	PITCHER	TM		OPP	10	12	15+	IP	ERA	WHIP	K-BB	wOBA RK	NOTE
1	Joe Musgrove	SDP	at	PIT	x	x	x	60.1	3.88	1.26	16%	27th	Fewer than 6 IP just 1x in his L6 with 8 total ER across the 36.3 IP
2	Max Scherzer	NYM		MIL	x	x	x	70.2	3.95	1.17	21%	30th	B2B gems after those 2 duds at ATL and v. NYY have hopefully assuaged concerns w/him
3	Shane Bieber	CLE	at	KCR	x	x	x	100	3.69	1.23	12%	22nd	4 HR in his L2 have fueled 9 ER; has allowed 3 or fewer ER in 12 of 15 starts, but 21 ER in the other 4 highlights the risk
4	Jesús Luzardo	MIA	at	BOS	x	x	x	90.2	3.77	1.19	22%	3rd	Not an easy matchup, but I don’t find myself sitting him in any format
5	Clarke Schmidt	NYY	at	OAK	x	x	x	77	4.32	1.42	16%	23rd	Has essentially been 5-and-dive in his L7 though it’s hard to argue w/the 2.19 ERA in that time
6	Brayan Bello	BOS		MIA		x	x	66	3.27	1.27	14%	11th	Nice 11-start run since the 5 ER Marathon Day game: 2.70 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 14% K-BB
7	J.P. France	HOU	at	STL		x	x	53.1	3.54	1.26	11%	13th	Putting up some nice results despite modest core skills, I particularly like that he has 6+ IP in each of his L5
8	Chris Bassitt	TOR		SFG		x	x	93.2	4.32	1.21	12%	6th	ERA is up over a run after 3 straight duds: velo is fine, but he’s using the fastball less & it’s getting smashed
9	Lance Lynn	CHW	at	LAA		x	x	90	6.40	1.49	19%	2nd	23/3 K/BB in his L2 starts and an out shy of B2B quality starts, but there’s still heavy risk in LAA
10	Taijuan Walker	PHI	at	CHC		x	x	83.1	4.10	1.24	11%	25th	Reigned in HR rate (4 in L10 after 7 in F6) has sparked a major run (2.63 ERA, 1.05 WHIP) despite modest skills (13% K-BB)
11	Patrick Sandoval	LAA		CHW			x	75.2	4.16	1.47	8%	24th	Good matchup, but can you afford the gamble of that insane WHIP? Be careful
12	Kyle Hendricks	CHC		PHI			x	34.2	2.60	0.98	7%	15th	His already-light K rate has evaporated (13%) but the results since his debut are fantastic: 2.08 ERA, 0.86 WHIP… a 5% K-BB looms, though
13	Brandon Pfaadt	ARI		TBR			x	23.2	8.37	1.65	9%	10th	Looks great in AAA w/a 3.18 ERA, 0.62 WHIP, 22% K-BB so I’m definitely picking him back up, but not necessarily starting v. TBR
14	Luis L. Ortiz	PIT		SDP			x	45.2	3.74	1.62	4%	9th	Coming off his best start of the yr, but a 1.56 June WHIP undercuts the 3.24 ERA
15	Hogan Harris	OAK		NYY			x	33	4.91	1.12	10%	25th	Was rolling before the TOR dud, I still like him in deeper formats bc the low W probability makes OAK guys a tough start in many spots
16	Adrian Houser	MIL	at	NYM			x	40.1	4.02	1.54	7%	21st	3 gems, but they’ve come v. TBR-HOU-CIN while 2 of the 4 duds have come v. KCR-OAK so he’s really tough to time
17	Cody Bradford	TEX		DET				14.1	5.65	1.26	12%	18th	Essentially threw a bullpen on Monday so I’m surprised he’s going today, but that’s what I’m seeing everywhere
18	Reese Olson	DET	at	TEX				24.2	4.74	1.05	22%	5th	Has been really good outside the ATL start (6 ER) w/7 ER in his 4 other starts combined, but this matchup is super scary
19	Yonny Chirinos	TBR	at	ARI				48.1	3.91	1.14	4%	3rd	That paltry K-BB finally caught up to him w/an 8 ER bomb v. KCR… can’t trust him v. ARI
20	Zack Greinke	KCR		CLE				81.1	5.31	1.23	15%	8th	Great work in May (2.30 ERA) erased by a June Swoon (9.00) and highlights why I rarely want to take the risk of starting him
21	Emmet Sheehan	LAD	at	COL				12	1.50	0.58	7%	16th	The rookie has a sparkling ERA in his 2 starts, but that paltry 7% K-BB could drive some quick regression in Coors… hold but don’t start
22	Adam Wainwright	STL		HOU				46.2	6.56	1.82	5%	17th	Can’t find a start for him in any format right now
23	Chase Anderson	COL		LAD				42	5.79	1.45	8%	18th	Absolutely not
24	TBD	SFG	at	TOR				#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	12th	Stripling is listed at most outlets but he threw 3 IP on Wednesday

Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues

Starting Pitcher Chart – June 28th

by Paul Sporer

June 28, 2023

Daily SP Chart archive

The chart includes their season performance, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness over the last 30 days, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s basically a risky stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.

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Read the rest of this entry »

Starting Pitcher Chart – June 27th

by Paul Sporer

June 27, 2023

Daily SP Chart archive

The chart includes their season performance, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness over the last 30 days, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s basically a risky stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.

Pardon me for not mentioning in Friday’s piece that there wouldn’t be a Monday piece. I was on the road traveling over the weekend so I wasn’t able to get something together. Though with such a tiny slate, if there was ever a day to miss, it would’ve been Monday!

I’ll be live on Twitch at 8am CT reviewing Monday’s boxscores and playing Immaculate Grid if you’re interested!

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Read the rest of this entry »

Starting Pitcher Chart – June 23rd

by Paul Sporer

June 23, 2023

Daily SP Chart archive

The chart includes their season performance, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness over the last 30 days, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s basically a risky stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.

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Read the rest of this entry »

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