Starting Pitcher Chart – July 25th

July 25, 2023

The chart includes their season performance, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness over the last 30 days, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s basically a risky stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.

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Tuesday, July 25th Starter Notes

RK	PITCHER	TM		OPP	10	12	15+	IP	ERA	WHIP	K-BB	wOBA RK	NOTE
1	Tyler Glasnow	TBR		MIA	x	x	x	54.2	3.62	1.19	27%	23rd	Appears to be settling in: 2.45 ERA/1.03 WHIP/35% K-BB in 29 IP
2	Pablo López	MIN		SEA	x	x	x	121.2	4.22	1.15	23%	11th	Feels weird that he has a 4.22 ERA given how well he’s pitched but 5 duds (5+ ER) will do that
3	Blake Snell	SDP		PIT	x	x	x	108	2.67	1.28	19%	28th	Always so fun to watch when he’s dialed in (0.71 ERA/1.08 WHIP/25% K-BB in 63 IP)
4	Corbin Burnes	MIL		CIN	x	x	x	121.1	3.49	1.06	17%	9th	Peak Burnes has appeared in July: 1.33 ERA, 0.63 WHIP, 27% K-BB in 27 IP
5	George Kirby	SEA	at	MIN	x	x	x	119.2	3.23	1.04	19%	8th	A couple hiccups including a hilarious 6 ER v. DET over his L9 but still has a 3.02 ERA/1.00 WHIP/21% K-BB
6	Andrew Abbott	CIN	at	MIL	x	x	x	55.2	2.10	0.92	18%	7th	Lamented that maybe my 42 rank was too high for him last wk and he went 8 IP of 1-hit ball… maybe I was too low?
7	Alex Cobb	SFG		OAK	x	x	x	100	3.15	1.39	15%	24th	Roughed up in CIN, but I’m definitely starting him v. OAK
8	Justin Verlander	NYM	at	NYY	x	x	x	83	3.47	1.16	13%	25th	K rate is way down but he’s still not coming out of the lineup anywhere w/those ratios
9	Aaron Civale	CLE		KCR	x	x	x	63	2.71	1.08	12%	29th	Not getting rewarded for his work with just 4 total decisions in 10 starts of 5+ IP
10	Griffin Canning	LAA	at	DET	x	x	x	79.2	4.52	1.23	17%	30th	Coming off a 12 K game w/a great matchup
11	Merrill Kelly 켈리	ARI		STL	x	x	x	95	3.22	1.14	16%	3rd	Cards can still hit despite their wretched record, but Kelly’s been nails so I don’t see myself sitting him anywhere
12	Taijuan Walker	PHI		BAL	x	x	x	107.1	4.11	1.26	12%	17th	He’s SP34 thanks to a 14-start run w/a 3.09 ERA and 1.14 WHIP, though just a 12% K-BB
13	Charlie Morton	ATL	at	BOS	x	x	x	109.2	3.36	1.37	15%	12th	If your WHIP is an issue, he’s not a must-start, but you need some pretty strong options to sit him
14	Edward Cabrera	MIA	at	TBR		x	x	72	4.50	1.38	15%	19th	His 10% BB in the L7 is workable, but he’s always a threat for 4+ BB outing in a start
15	Julio Urías	LAD		TOR		x	x	75.1	5.02	1.17	18%	12th	5 duds and 9 starts of 0-2 ER across his 14 GS; still a great WHIP, too
16	Kyle Hendricks	CHC	at	CHW		x	x	64	3.38	1.06	12%	18th	This feels precarious w/just a 12% K-BB and 7% SwStr, but his command increases his margin for error
17	Eduardo Rodriguez	DET		LAA			x	83.2	2.69	0.97	21%	5th	Hasn’t struggled w/strong teams: 2.94 ERA/0.98 WHIP/14% K-BB in 6 starts v. >.500 tms
18	Nick Pivetta	BOS		ATL			x	76	4.38	1.20	19%	2nd	Hopefully continues to follow: 2.45 ERA, 0.77 WHIP, 39% K-BB in 18 IP… ATL is terrifying, I’m torn here
19	Steven Matz	STL	at	ARI			x	81	4.67	1.47	14%	27th	2 gems and a dud (4 IP/4 ER) since return to rotation; catching ARI in a vulnerable spot so I can see some streams
20	Kyle Gibson	BAL	at	PHI			x	121	4.76	1.36	11%	21st	Always a high-risk stream and no real split to follow, just depends on your risk tolerance
21	Domingo Germán	NYY		NYM			x	97.2	4.52	1.08	18%	15th	Has 4.41 ERA/1.24 WHIP/25% K-BB since Perfecto… always high-risk, high-reward
22	Michael Kopech	CHW		CHC			x	92.1	4.29	1.39	11%	7th	Running some Germanian volatility w/a 90 high and 22 low Game Score (7 60+; 8 <45), so have the TUMS handy
23	J.P. France	HOU		TEX			x	77.2	3.13	1.24	10%	6th	It’s a big risk even v. a Seager-less TEX but I can see some throws here
24	Chris Bassitt	TOR	at	LAD				121.2	3.92	1.21	15%	1st	Most of his struggles on the road: 5.81/1.59 WHIP/12% K-BB thanks to 15 HRs (2.4 HR); LA not the place to test that
25	Zack Greinke	KCR	at	CLE				96.2	5.40	1.30	12%	10th	I just don’t think there is enough upside to take on the risk
26	Rich Hill	PIT	at	SDP				109.2	4.84	1.45	11%	17th	I know he has good starts, I just don’t like taking on the downside risk
27	Cody Bradford	TEX	at	HOU				32	4.78	1.13	16%	10th	Filling in for Eovaldi but might be limited to 60ish pitches
28	Trevor Williams	WSN		COL				98.2	4.38	1.44	9%	28th	Feels like a trap
29	Ken Waldichuk	OAK	at	SFG				80	6.75	1.84	8%	29th	Might take a roll if he was pitching better but he’s just not enticing enough
30	Austin Gomber	COL	at	WSN				102	6.18	1.47	9%	2nd	#NeverGomber

Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues