3/19/19

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Late Hitters I Like

ADP (select Main Event in the second column)

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Major league teams have become increasingly sensitive to roster flexibility. One way to extend the back end of the roster is to have players with options. In most cases, players come with three option years. This means their team can demote them to the minors without penalty. Once an option is used in a given year, that player can be demoted any number of times. For example, the Rays yo-yoed numerous relievers between Durham and Tampa to extend their bullpen.

Once a player has been optioned three times in his career, he is said to be “out of options.” In other words, he can no longer be sent to the minors without passing through waivers. If the player is good enough, he’ll be claimed by another club. They’ll either use him in the majors or try to pass him through waivers again.

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I just wrote about some of the players I did not know about from my LABR AL-only league. It’s time for the NL players I didn’t recognize. I figured there would be more on the list because I didn’t do the pre-auction prep work needed to roster full teams. I was wrong. I knew quite a few but a few names didn’t initially

Here are the full AL and NL-only lists.

Most fantasy owners may not agree with the recent #LABR auction values. They may not be even close to rostering as many players. BUT they should look over the players taken and find out why an "expert" wanted them.

AL: https://t.co/uCKWquXmXr

NL: https://t.co/pMafCbEK4O pic.twitter.com/4cCa0yTlU9

— Jeff Zimmerman (@jeffwzimmerman) March 4, 2019

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Spring is sprung and all that gobbledygook. More importantly, things are happening in the baseball world. After an offseason of stasis, players are gaining value based on the early results of their offseason training regimens. Some are losing value via injury. Others will have to contend with last minute signings of key free agents. Many spring stories are flying under the radar. Here are five that caught my eye.

1. Bryce Harper fallout

There are some repercussions to the Phillies signing of Bryce Harper. Obviously, Nick Williams is no longer the starting right fielder. He was a sneaky breakout candidate entering his age 25 season with a track record of steady gains to contact rate, plate discipline, and ISO. The Phillies have options with Williams. Literally, he could be optioned, serve as an overqualified fourth outfielder, or be traded for something the club needs more. At present, that’s nothing.

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Every year, I curse myself for not taking more (any?) $1 shares of Kevin Pillar. I know what you’re thinking – “Brad, Pillar is always terrible.” In a very real sense, that’s true – at least in fantasy leagues where his defense is irrelevant. He’s posted a career 87 wRC+ with four very consistent full seasons of mediocrity. He’s also one of the most successful players in April, non-elite division. Behold:

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At first glance, Max Kepler had a very Max Kepler year. In several key categories, he was pretty much the same player he’s always been, which is to say that he once again came close to, but failed to achieve, league average offensive output:

Where it really counts, in wOBA and wRC+, Kepler has been consistent—but consistently underwhelming. Skimming over these results, one would be inclined to conclude that the Twins are still waiting for Kepler to break out.

But ask anyone in the Twins front office, and they’d likely say that Kepler broke out last season, beneath our noses. And indeed, looking under the hood, we find several reasons to reach that same conclusion for ourselves:

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The grind of baseball can sometimes sap the joy from the sport. Thus, it’s refreshing when a champion of the people emerges. Such a hero appeared on the scene late in the 2018 season – Twins catcher Willians Astudillo.

The catcher/first baseman hasn’t been viewed as a legitimate prospect since he was a teenager in the Phillies system. Even then, you had to dig deep to find him. Now 27, he’s become a folk hero for his base running, home run antics, and refusal to walk or strike out. Scouts call him bad-bodied. To a layman, it looks like their pudgy local plumber is running around on a field with a bunch of chiseled professionals. Just wait until he bends over…

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The current fantasy focus is evaluating the top-100 or so players, especially the first couple rounds. I’m going to deep dive and investigate some later round values.  I will group 10 players together and pick which one I would take earlier than the others.

201: Arodys Vizcaino
202: Jonathan Schoop
203: Kevin Gausman
204: Luke Voit
205: Chris Taylor
206: Jake Arrieta
207: Forrest Whitley
208: Ross Stripling
209: Odubel Herrera
210: Yusei Kikuchi

There are several players I really like in this group like Taylor, Stripling, and Herrera but easily the best bargain is Kikuchi.

Kikuchi isn’t on par with Asian imports Ohtani or Darvish but he’s still extremely talented. He’s considered to be a better talent than Miles Mikolas and Mikolas is going 86th overall. I believe once Kikuchi signs and everyone gets to know him, his ADP will be cut in half and around a top-100 pick, if not double digits.
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A while back, I ranked hitters if all their 2018 stats were prorated to 600 plate appearances. It’s now time for the pitchers. In all fairness, the rankings are a huge disappointment with no surprises coming through.

I adjusted the rankings for 180 innings for starters and 60 innings for relievers and no one seemed out of place. With the hitters, Raul Mondesi at the top was an attention-getter. Looking over both sets of top-25 pitchers, the biggest surprise was Joshua James and he’s not really a surprise since he dominated at the season’s end. Time to get bored.

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Last week, I started digging through the free agent pitchers and found those arms who could improve on their pitch mix. Three prime candidates, Jeremy Hellickson, Matt Harvey, and Derek Holland, stood out. This installment includes the older pitchers from MLBtraderumors free-agent starter list while still ignoring those who may or may not become free agents. I’ll look into them once it’s official they are a free agent.

As I said in the previous article:

I’m just going to focus on the each of the pitcher’s 2018 pitch mix. I can’t assume they’ll develop a new pitch, so I need to work with what they showed last year. The two most common ways for pitcher to improve is to drop a horrible pitch or drop their fastball usage. These changes don’t guarantee an improvement but for now, the focus is on pitchers with upside beyond their projection.
….
After going through the pitchers, I found they fit into three main groups depending on if changing their mix could help. This ranking is in no way a ranking of pitcher talent but I’m sure someone will bring it up in the comments. These are just pitchers who I believe can improve by adjusting their current pitch mix.

Major Improvement Candidates

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