Let’s return without delay to the task at hand, which we began last week: our attempt to identify at least one lightly-regarded (cheap or reserve-round) player who might do something this season, assuming with unwarranted optimism that there’s a “this season” that isn’t next season. This week, we’ll look at the AL West and the NL East. The numbers in parentheses are NFBC Average Draft Positions for all drafts.

Angels: As we mentioned in our first article of the year, we like Michael Stefanic (not taken), who could be in the lineup if either something ill befalls David Fletcher or the team doesn’t sign a free-agent shortstop. He’ll hit .270, possibly with a bit of power. And we are struggling to overcome our repeated disappointments in Justin Upton (586) over the years. It’s not clear that he’s got a significant role on this team, but we can imagine him getting the same 250 or so PAs he got last year before he got hurt, and hitting about the same (14 HR, .247) minus some age-related decline, which makes him worth getting at ADP 586.

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2/15/22

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

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INJURIES/TRANSACTION NEWS

• Eric Thames 테임즈 to OAK on MiLB deal (1:30)

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2/6/22

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

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What are sleepers? Do they even really exist anymore in the information age? The term is definitely bastardized to the point where you might come across a “sleeper list” that is littered with picks inside the top 150. It could just be semantics of defining “sleepers”, but guys taken that high just don’t qualify.

For me, sleepers don’t start until player 300 in 15-team leagues (~200 for 10-teamers, ~240 for 12-teamers). There isn’t a perfect cutoff, but it is fair to tab anyone going after the 20th round as a “sleeper”. We saw the likes of Tyler O’Neill (303 ADP last year), Logan Webb (322), Cedric Mullins (348), and Emmanuel Clase (399) among the major sleeper hits last year.

I’m using the NFBC ADP and putting a start date of 1/1/22 for this first version of Sleepers.

Previous Versions:

• Version 1.0

Pavin Smith | Arizona Diamondbacks, 1B-OF | 369 ADP

I understand why one might just pass over Smith in their analysis for fantasy outfielders (or first basemen). Nothing about his 96 wRC+, 11 HR debut jumps off the page as must-buy. I’m betting on the contact and plate skills profiles. His 19% K rate was a good bit better than average (23%), but I don’t even think we have seen the best he can do there. He had just a 7% swinging strike rate, 17th-best in the league and well below the 11% league average.

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What are sleepers? Do they even really exist anymore in the information age? The term is definitely bastardized to the point where you might come across a “sleeper list” that is littered with picks inside the top 150. It could just be semantics of defining “sleepers”, but guys taken that high just don’t qualify.

For me, sleepers don’t start until player 300 in 15-team leagues (~200 for 10-teamers, ~240 for 12-teamers). There isn’t a perfect cutoff, but it is fair to tab anyone going after the 20th round as a “sleeper”. We saw the likes of Tyler O’Neill (303 ADP last year), Logan Webb (322), Cedric Mullins (348), and Emmanuel Clase (399) among the major sleeper hits last year.

I’m using the NFBC ADP and putting a start date of 1/1/22 for this first version of Sleepers. And yes, the Vol. 1 in the title does mean there will be more than one of these articles over the remainder of the winter!

Luis Patiño | Tampa Bay Rays, SP | 302 ADP

Patiño enjoyed a nice development season with 77.3 IP in the majors and 29.3 IP at Triple-A. He showed flashes of his upside, highlighted by a 6-start run during which he posted a 3.41 ERA and 1.26 WHIP with 30 Ks in 31.7 IP. A mid-to-high 90s heater and strong mid-80s slider make him hell on righties (.594 OPS) but the lack of a bankable third pitch is a big reason for his platoon problem against lefties (.830 OPS). He is still just 22 years old, though, so there is still time for the third pitch to come together. Patiño could reasonably reach 150 IP this year and that slider could generate more than a strikeout-per-inning. The ratios will depend on his development against lefties and ability to reign in the homers, but I’m happy to pay up for the potential.

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What’s better than sleepers? That’s right. More sleepers!!

Last time out we briefly laid out how loose I am with my definition of sleeper before taking a deeper look at two players I think will actualize my said nebulous designation. Tl;dr: I see sleepers as players who have some combination of high-ROI and low-hype. Also, designating sleepers before actionable ADP is available is basically a guessing game. See? Loose.

After choosing a player from Detroit and Kansas City the last time out, we might as well keep this AL Central tour of sadness going. Let’s get things started by taking some big deep breaths, in and out, listening to nothing but the sound of my voice. In and out. Now relax your breath and relax your inner self as we all get very, very sleepy. In-nnn…and out.

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Eno Sarris said not to look at HR rate. He said it and I’m going to listen. However, FIP and xFIP are not HR rates, and I’m going to look at that. Too often we assume that others know, or we actually know, what a statistic represents. We hear it, we think it, we know it. But, take a moment with me to reinvigorate our understanding of these two very important statistics.

FIP gives us an idea of how a pitcher performs regardless of who is playing defense behind him. It accounts for strikeouts, walks, hit by pitches, and home runs allowed. FIP gives us a better understanding of how a pitcher is performing than ERA. xFIP tells us all the same but accounts for the volatility of the HR rate. Quoting from our very own FanGraphs glossary, xFIP is:

calculated in the same way as FIP, except it replaces a pitcher’s home run total with an estimate of how many home runs they should have allowed given the number of fly balls they surrendered while assuming a league average home run to fly ball percentage (between 9 and 10% depending on the year).

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Playing time rules the day in fantasy baseball. The more of it your players have, the better you will do. It should go without saying that you want quality players logging that playing time, but in case anyone was unclear, I obviously believe that to be the case. It can be difficult to take a platoon player (under 130 gms) – even a good one – over someone playing at a slightly lesser clip but doing so 85%+ (~140+ gms) of the time.

Brett Gardner isn’t as good as Jesse Winker on a per plate appearance basis (103 to 125 in wRC+ since 2018), but he has 416 more PA giving him massive counting category edges. Finding the guys who can increase their playing time load in season is often a key separator in the winners and the losers. Here are five players who could fantasy stars if they find regular reps.

Yesterday I ran what ended up inadvertently being an NL edition of this so I didn’t want to leave the AL-Only folks hanging. I’m giving a couple extras because so many of the AL candidates are outfielders and I didn’t want to leave the infield empty handed.

Victor Reyes | DET | OF

Reyes fans had to be bummed by the Robbie Grossman and Nomar Mazara signings for the Tigers as they seem to have pushed Reyes to the bench with JaCoby Jones fulfilling the other role. The speedy 4th OF has been an avenue for cheap fantasy upside in the past and Reyes could absolutely be a draft day bargain because of his uncertain role. The switch-hitting 26-year-old has a career .271 AVG in 724 PA and that’s a bit depressed by his .222 AVG debut after being a Rule 5 pickup in 2018. Since then he is hitting .293/.327/.414 with 7 HR and 17 SB in 505 PA.

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Playing time rules the day in fantasy baseball. The more of it your players have, the better you will do. It should go without saying that you want quality players logging that playing time, but in case anyone was unclear, I obviously believe that to be the case. It can be difficult to take a platoon player (under 130 gms) – even a good one – over someone playing at a slightly lesser clip but doing so 85%+ (~140+ gms) of the time.

Brett Gardner isn’t as good as Jesse Winker on a per plate appearance basis (103 to 125 in wRC+ since 2018), but he has 416 more PA giving him massive counting category edges. Finding the guys who can increase their playing time load in season is often a key separator in the winners and the losers. Here are five players who could fantasy stars if they find regular reps.

Edwin Ríos | LAD | 4C (1B-3B-LF-RF)

Rios would start and bat in the top half of the lineup for at least half the league right now. While he is hardly a standout defender, his flexibility would help so many clubs fit his strong bat somewhere. Unfortunately, the Dodgers are definitely not one of those teams. All four positions he can play are blocked off by All Stars, but that same flexibility paired with the overall flexibility of this entire roster will give him a chance to be LA’s first man up should virtually any injury occur. The pieces can move to make Rios the man to cover any injury except catcher.

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11/11/20

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

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2021 BREAKOUT STARTERS

Top 50 (Overall player, not SP) Going Pick 90-150 (5:00)

• Paul: Pablo López
• Alex: Lance McCullers Jr.

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