10 Post Hype Buys for 2020
Some of the best investments at the draft table can be the players who were hyped up the year before but failed to deliver on expectations. Often their price plummets and unless their profile greatly changed for the worst the year before, they still carry the upside that made them so popular in the first place. Here are 10 guys I’m looking at rebuying in 2020 drafts:
Travis Shaw – 3B – TOR | 2019 ADP approx. ~85; 2020 ADP: 357
After a pair of really solid 30+ HR seasons, Shaw melted down with a 47 wRC+ effort in 270 plate appearances last year. In a recent Mining the News, Jeff had a tidbit about how Shaw revamped his swing a bit to disastrous results and he was too far gone once he tried to revert back. Despite the overall nightmare, I am heartened by the fact that Shaw put up a 147 wRC+ in 174 PA at Triple-A so he didn’t completely forget how to hit. At this price, how could I not take a shot on him reverting back to his 2017-18 form?
Miles Mikolas – P – STL | 2019 ADP approx. ~110; 2020 ADP: 218
This was a rare low-strikeout pitcher that the fantasy market felt good enough to buy big into because his elite command and strong HR suppression seemed to offer a viable ratio floor and while his 4.16 ERA/1.22 WHIP wasn’t a total bust – his finish as the 67th SP means he was viable in most formats – a lot of his drafters didn’t get the good part as shallow leaguers felt justified in moving on after a 5.29 ERA in April and just 19 Ks in 34 innings.
His 1.24 WHIP was still pretty solid, but I certainly understand 10- and 12-team leaguers who moved on. Unfortunately, they missed out on his 3.90 ERA/1.22 WHIP from May on (ratios that ranked 46th and 39th among the 110 SPs with at least 100 IP in that time). Now 100 picks cheaper, Mikolas is quality ratio investment who fits perfectly on a strikeout-heavy team with some high WHIPs and/or innings concerns.
Garrett Hampson – 2B/OF – COL | 2019 ADP approx. ~150; 2020 ADP: 175
Hampson is only going a couple rounds cheaper than he did last year thanks to a blistering hot September (5 HR/9 SB), but as one of the bigger hype machines on Hampson last year, I’m still willing to buy back at any discount. He has a wide range on his ADP with a peak of 120 and low of 249 so your room will definitely play a role on what kind of discount you’re going to get compared to last year. If he comes anywhere near 200, I’m buying for sure.
J.A. Happ – P – NYY | 2019 ADP approx. ~150; 2020 ADP: 450
Happ strung together four years with a 3.48 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 690 IP, including an excellent 2018: 3.65 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and 193 Ks in 177.7 IP. However, his home run rate was rising yearly (0.8, 1.0, 1.1, 1.4) and came to a head in 2019 with a 1.9 mark that yielded a 4.91 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. He quietly finished with a 2.23 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, and 35 Ks in 32.3 innings, but by then he’d no doubt spent months on most waiver wires.
Despite the uninspired season, Happ still finished 72nd on the Razzball Player Rater which isn’t that terrible all things considered and yet this price drop feels insane. He has become a complete afterthought and I’d venture to say that his age of 37 is playing a bigger role than the 2019 stats. While I don’t really see a return to 2018’s 26% K rate, he’s going to be in the rotation on a strong team and this price is too low. Check out Al’s piece on Happ for more.
Brandon Nimmo – OF – NYM | 2019 ADP approx. ~160; 2020 ADP: 340
A long-term neck injury cost Nimmo three-plus months of the season last year and limited him to just 69 games which is decidedly not nice. His first 43 games saw him hit .200/.344/.323 with just a .288 BABIP (he entered ’19 with a .355 mark) and then returned in September to hit .261/.430/.565 with 5 HR and 2 SB in 93 PA. His BABIP was back up at .302 which was still quite far from his career mark, but he hit well.
A lot of fantasy managers probably missed that final surge to the finish line, though, and now he’s coming way too cheaply. The 27-year old will likely leadoff for the Mets thanks to his rock solid OBP and even if we only got a 2018 copy (.263/.404/.483, 17 HR, 9 SB in 535 PA), it’d be more than worth it at this price.
Nathan Eovaldi – P – BOS | 2019 ADP approx. ~160; 2020 ADP: 392
Another total injury washout, Eovaldi pitched just 67.7 innings last year and struggled mightily through them with a 5.99 ERA and 1.58 WHIP. He did set a career-high strikeout rate at 23%, but his walk rate soared to 12%, double his mark from 2014-18. He was likely overpriced last year even if he hadn’t been so limited by injury, but now he’s price to buy.
Danny Jansen – C – TOR | 2019 ADP approx. ~200; 2020 ADP: 282
DanJan was a popular catcher investment after a 31-game sample in 2018 that was solid (116 wRC+), but probably not worth the surge in price. Easy for me to say now, of course, but I was also the clown drafting him as the 10th catcher off the board last year so I’m mostly chastising myself. He was sooo bad through May with just a .163/.243/.240 line.
Given that, I’d imagine that many missed the fact that he had a .234/.301/.431 line from June on (239 PA) with 11 HR, 33 RBI/R – a 28 HR and 83 RBI/R pace. And that was even with a .523 OPS in his 36 September PA. If you were in last year when he was the 9th-11th catcher off the board, you should buy back in this year as the 19th-21st backstop available.
Forrest Whitley – P – HOU | 2019 ADP approx. ~270; 2020 ADP: 311
The top prospect suffered through an awful season in the minors last year, posting a 7.99 ERA and 1.73 WHIP in 59.7 innings at High-, Double-, and Triple-A. His price hasn’t plummeted because while he wasn’t good, he wasn’t inflicting that failure upon fantasy teams, so he still carries the prospect sheen of being an unknown. He is still cheaper, though, going upwards of five-six rounds later at his ADP high of 357. Part of his price holding is that he ended the season on a high note in the Arizona Fall League, posting a 2.88 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in 25 innings with 32 strikeouts. Don’t forget him.
Ian Happ – OF – CHC | 2019 ADP approx. ~415; 2020 ADP: 337
Quick, how old is Happ?
I’m sure some of you were close to his age (25), but I feel like some of you probably tabbed him as someone in his late-20s. His hype actually came in 2018 after a strong debut the year before. And when he led off the 2018 season with a home run on the very first pitch, the hype hit another level. He actually carried an .800 OPS through early-August, but then stumbled to the finish line with just a .659 in his last 126 PA resulting in a modest 106 wRC+ for the year with 15 HR and 8 SB, waiver/streaming fodder in most formats. He didn’t even debut until July 26th in 2019, but I think his success went unnoticed.
He severely cut his strikeout rate from 36% to 25% while posting a 127 wRC+ and hitting 11 HR in just 156 PA. The 2019 season was a big learning process for Happ after being demoted out of spring and he made some real growth that could pay big dividends in 2020 as he now has a bead on a full time role either in the outfield or at second base or split between both. His price is up from 2019, but still very much priced where he can’t really hurt if he regresses and could be a major boon if he continues his trajectory from the 2019 second half.
Carter Kieboom – SS – WAS | 2019 ADP approx. n/a; 2020 ADP: 297
Despite it being just 43 PA, Kieboom’s paltry 17 wRC+ has definitely pushed him down the lists of many, but that’s basically a nothing sample and really shouldn’t have any impact on how you view him for 2020. He’s going to be given a shot at winning the third base job and he’s one of the first “Best Shape of His Life” guys of the year. Of course, if he wins the gig, he’ll move up the board, but I can’t really see him cracking the Top 200 even with a job in hand. Don’t forget that the 22-year old hit .303/.409/.493 with 16 HR and 5 SB in 494 at Triple-A after getting sent back down.
This is wrong, all wrong.
Wrong wrong wrongity wrong.
Actually, I like the Nimmo/Jansen/Happ picks. You might not be able to pay me to burn a roster spot on Eovaldi, even off waivers. He has floated along on rumors that he could put it all together any minute now for a Long time, and the couple spurts where it seemed like it was happening don’t outweigh the entire rest of his career. And that’s not even taking injuries into account.
Now that I write it, he sounds like the pitching version of Byron Buxton.
lol cool.
“This is wrong, all wrong.”
5 seconds later:
“Actually, I like”
lol, right? what a bizarre comment. it’s almost like he didn’t re-read it at the end to see how it turned out
But Eovaldi has somewhat lived up to expectations
I like Buxton this year. Good call!
Me too. You know the whole expression about burn me once, burn me twice, notice they don’t say anything about burn me five times. But alas, I am back in. Buxtons spot in the batting order will likely suck this year, but he was quite good before injury last year.
everything you’ve ever done sucks
Quick, how old is Happ?…37 and still crushing.
At least Lewis Brinson didn’t show up.
It’s Post Hype, not Post-Post-Post-Post-Post Hype.
At what point does it become pre-hype again?
For me, I’m buying in on Danny Jansen and Garret Hampson. Maybe Mikolas. Never on Eovaldi or J.A. Happ. But I like the article. Always interesting to toss around come back players.
Eovaldi and Happ are the kinds of guys that should be drafted at the end of a draft, but some Sox or Yankee fan will scoop them up earlier than one would like. The lure of Wins can be a little too strong sometimes…
Yea, I wouldn’t mind drafting those guys late in a draft. But their current adp is a bit too high for my liking tbh.
The author clearly has a Happ bias. Emperor Caveat, all.
abandon all happ, ye who enter here
Sleeping on Nimmo is common because he’s a boring player to the average fan. Lots of walks, not too much power, not too much speed, and not too much defense, but he has a formidable combination of those enough to where he can produce.
This community is criminally guilty of overvaluing Nimmo. The idea that he doesn’t get enough credit for what he does is absurd.
People who use FanGraphs aren’t the “average fan”
Don’t give people too much credit for reading a progressive sports blog – its pretty easy especially if you just read the headlines. Lets be honest, that is a lot of people in this day and age. Many people that read FG are not baseball fans. I find it unlikely that average fans live under rocks and only come out to watch the home team. The trickle down from FG creeps into the far corners of the Internet. I think it is is more likely that Nimmo’s skillset is overvalued greatly by this community and as a product of that is overvalues by average fans.
I don’t really see that as the case, even at last year’s price. He was the 47th OF in 2018 by the Auction Calculator and then drafted as virtually the same in 2019 (160-190 ADP is 40-50th OF range). He obviously didn’t meet that level because of the neck injury, but he there wasn’t any major projection in that pick slot. Now, he’s massively cheaper and easily worth his draft price.
I think he is a bench OF. If you like the upside then dive on in! Honestly, I can see where the hope comes from – its just not for me. I will be shooting for healthier players that offer more speed or power. When Nimmo does an impressive fart it gets a headline on these virtual pages. To be clear, I would read that article.
I guess I see him from the other side: lots of walks but lots of strikeouts is really, really, really going to cap his BA. Yes he had a big September but Statcast isn’t buying it with a .405 xSLG vs his actual .565. Two of his 5 September homers were Coors Field specials. Even though he ran BABIPs of .350-360 in prior years, he still only managed BA of .260-270 and he is going to have to be an absolute line drive machine to maintain BABIPs that high. His value is almost entirely in his high BB% which I suppose has some value in OBP leagues.
To me he’s a guy with a low BA, middling pop, no speed and a bad neck that caused him to miss 3+ months and required a 2nd opinion, all while facing serious questions about playing time.
Agree with Anon and Dobbs. He is basically without value unless your league is super deep, or not 5×5. If it is 5×5…what are you going to do with him? That is a good real life player, but in traditional roto you’d have to be in 15+ teams for him to be rosterable imo
I think it really depends how much your league values walks. In many formats, such as NFBC, they are completely irrelevant. In some formats they play quite well. I am not convinced that his real-life value is not overstated. He fits WAR, but that is a narrow definition of WAR. I think of players like him as the counter example to what we call wins. The other counter example is the Vlad Sr type that doesn’t walk and does reckless things on defense and on the bases that racks up negative value.
sleeping on bartolo colon is extremely comfortable
“Oh yeah, its big brain time.”
Points leagues is where his value is highest. Walks and doubles to boost his lack of HR/SB, which aren’t useless.
I have Maikel Franco on my list too, with the hopes that the Royals figure out how to fix his launch angle.
He was literally 11th for me. I have a hard time quitting him lol
Franco should be great value this year, simply due to playing time. He will get playing time.
Is his 2500 ABs of .250/.300/.430 not indicative of his true talent? I don’t see why being in a worse lineup would suddenly make him playable. He has 4 straight years of middling pop, no speed and no on-base skills. I don’t get the appeal.
Well, I guess I mean in leagues like NFBC when you need to fill a CI spot after pick 400 you mostly are looking at part time players, so playing time helps. Cooper is going before him which is probably correct, as is Mountcastle. But is he even going to be in the MLB? Miggy is one spot before him, which is probably fair, but after that is Longoria which isn’t likely to be anything other than accumulator, like Franco. With that ADP though you are dumpster diving. The other guys around him have moved up considerably if you filter ADP to more recently (Smoak, Thames, etc) and those guys are obviously better bets now with jobs. But other guys being drafted around him (Dominic Smith) you are basically hoping someone gets injured or he gets traded because there is basically no path to at bats.
But down in that ADP area there is a lot of fluctuation due to playing time. I could see myself back in on Miggy if somehow he is pulling the ball again, or if Smith gets traded he could shoot way up for me as well. Huge fan of Smoak if you can get him around pick 300 because he is in a great ballpark for LH power, and just look what the Brewers have done with other left handed hitters recently with the exception of Shaw, heh. I’d go as far as to say I am going to try to fill him in my CI spot in all leagues if possible.
Great one.
I know this isn’t the appropriate place to put this, but there kind of isn’t one – I was hoping to buy some FanGraphs t-shirts for my fantasy league members before our draft and “small” and “XXL” are the only two sizes available. Any idea if more sizes will ever come in stock?
Also, I’m all over Hampson this season. He’ll be cheaper than last season and the steals potential alone is worth it.
Can you tweet me that question @sporer so I can run it up the flagpole and see if we can get a restock?
And you can see who salutes
AJ Pollock could be good I imagine. I don’t believe it but he fell a long ways… he should have at least.
I think Jansen was so overhyped a year ago that he is still too pricey. His ADP may be low but someone is going to be high on him if you are not talking NFBC. Why take a flyer at catcher? May as well just pick at waivers.
Matt Carpenter had a horrendous April/May in 2018 and then caught fire from June to August before tailing off in September, causing his price to skyrocket going into 2019. He was atrocious all year in 2019, by far the worst year of his career, with a 95 wRC+ (actually surprised it was that high), the first time it was under 117 in his 8 full years in MLB. So that’s 3 good months in the last 12.
Anyone thinking there is bounce-back potential at age 34 or are we seeing the edge of the cliff and that only goes one way?
He probably needs to play a bit less to get more rest. That may help
Thanks Paul. Some good names here, and I’ll throw in two more from the rays.
If it gets late at the dance and you still don’t have a CI/3B, make eyes at Yandy Diaz. 14HR in 79 games and 53Rs, K rate below 20% and great hard hit rates bode well for Batting average help. BB rate @ 10%…health a concern, but he’s got the post hype upside.
Next Willy Adames. Yes, SS is deep, but he really improved last year on defense and even on offense his K rate dropped as the year went on and you could see he was laying off that slider away and putting together better ABs. Not every prospect comes out on fire, I could see a Semien type path here.
I love Super Yandy. Pounded the table for him last season when projections said he’d hit very few HRs, and he came out of the gate mashing. Just hope the 1B logjam + Wendle don’t hurt his PAs too much.
I am pretty sure I read that Jansen was one of the unluckiest hitters last year, too, relative to expected results based on exit velocity, LD %, etc. (though I can’t remember where I saw that…sorry)
Looked up his BABIP last year – .230. Ouch. Also, his hard hit % was 6th among 30 catchers with over 300 PA last year.
easy enough to look up:
.207 BA vs .247 xBA – 15th unluckiest among 451 hitters with 100 PA
.360 SLG vs .418 xSLG – 24th unluckiest
.275 wOBA vs .314 xwOBA – 15th unluckiest
So, unlucky but not that exciting even if he had played up to his xwOBA. his .314 xwOBA was 27th out of 67 catchers with 100 PA and 22nd out of 36 with 250 PA.
Still, that’s nearly a 100 point gain in OPS with average luck, he’s still young, and he played very good defense last year. (Not that the latter point means anything in fantasy except perhaps more playing time)
Apologies if you’ve addressed him elsewhere already, but are you considering buying Honeywell at all this year? I owned him in Ottoneu for 3 years but cut him this Jan (from $5) Should I try to get him back if I can for $3 or $4?
Jake Bauers,
Ryan McMahon, and
Francisco Mejia.