It’s pretty rare for a player who was still a rookie at age-29 to ever stumble into a full-time role. But that’s precisely what Justin Ruggiano is looking to do this spring. A minor leaguer since 2004, Ruggiano didn’t lose his major-league rookie status until 2011, when he was 29-years-old. Not surprisingly, the list of 29-year-old rookies that go on to have successful careers is pretty short, and the Miami Marlins seemed to agree at first, as Ruggiano began 2012 in the minors. But a combination of his performance, and the club’s need for hitting, propelled Ruggiano back into the majors at age-30. This time, he didn’t disappoint. After 320 plate appearances with a .313/.374/.535 slash line, and a .390 wOBA, Ruggiano has emerged as a sleeper. But given the track record of players with his path to the majors, he’s already fighting against the odds.

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Phew. After a nearly four and a half hour snake draft online, I have officially completed the earliest draft in my fantasy baseball career. LABR stands for League of Alternative Baseball Reality, and along with Tout Wars, is one of the two most publicized “expert” leagues. In the past, LABR has had only two leagues, an AL-Only and NL-Only, with both formats using a live auction in Arizona to select players. Last year, a mixed league with an online draft was formed and I participated in the inaugural season as well. With that background out of the way, let’s get into more league specifics.

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Jurickson Profar has a strong chance at being the consensus best prospect in baseball entering the season. Both MLB.com and ESPN’s Keith Law agree, ranking him in the top slot. And while Baseball America hasn’t divulged their list yet, Profar graces the cover of this year’s Prospect Handbook. For FG+ this season, which you should buy if you haven’t already, I did an article looking at whether it’s worth it to draft prospects in a re-draft league. Since I found playing time to be a major factor in whether a prospect can be successful during their rookie year, I did not look at whether the elite prospects were more likely to have a successful fantasy season. Profar may enter the year as baseball’s best prospect, but does that mean anything for his fantasy value?

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Yesterday, seemingly out of nowhere, the Astros acquired first baseman Chris Carter from the A’s. Carter was a one-time top prospect in the White Sox system, boasting elite power and above average plate patience. Of course, that came with its share of strikeouts, making Carter the prototypical slugging first base prospect. Carter is no spring chicken though, he is already 26 years old as he moves onto his third team. Sadly, last year represented his most expanded audition in the big leagues, even though he recorded just 260 plate appearances. His massive power was on full display, though, as he launched 16 homers to notch a .275 ISO. So now in Houston, does he shoot up sleeper lists?

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Of starting pitchers who threw at least 100 innings last year, the top three strikeout-to-walk ratios belonged to Cliff Lee, Colby Lewis, and … Marco Estrada. His 5.32 K/BB as a starter helped propel him to an overall 3.64 ERA, which marked the best season of his career and put him on fantasy radar for the first time.

The 29-year-old doesn’t possess a power repertoire that naturally leads to lofty strikeout rates, but Estrada proved to be a pleasant surprise for fantasy owners who plucked him off the waiver wire last season. He ended the 2012 season with the tenth-highest strikeout rate (9.26 K/9) among starting pitchers who threw at least 100 innings.

But perhaps fantasy owners shouldn’t have been surprised that Estrada could rack up the strikeouts once he was given a full-time role in the starting rotation. After all, he has a career 9.02 K/9 strikeout rate and a career 10.2% swinging-strike rate. His career has only been 262.1 innings over bits and pieces of the past five years, but at the very worst, this is becoming a legitimate trend worth watching.

Marco Estrada offered more than just strikeouts last season, though, which is what makes him such an intriguing sleeper for the 2013 season. The right-hander also severely limited free passes, which helped him maintain a low WHIP (1.14). He was one of the few pitchers available in later rounds — or the waiver wire — who offered an above-average strikeout rate without sacrificing WHIP or ERA last year.

His 3.64 ERA also appears sustainable. His 3.35 FIP and 3.19 SIERA suggest he actually pitched better than his 2012 ERA otherwise indicates. Estrada occasionally struggles with giving up home runs — and that issue can be exacerbated by mostly pitching in Miller Park — but his home run rate was only slightly above the league average last season. He is essentially a lock to serve as the Brewers’ number-two starter and should be the beneficiary of a potent Brewers offense. That could lead to a double-digit win total for Estrada, which would be yet another advantage for fantasy owners in standard roto leagues.

Some have expressed concern regarding his slight velocity drop from 2011 to 2012. He dropped almost a mile per hour on his average fastball from 91.0 mph to 90.2 mph, but it’s important to remember that his 2011 velocity numbers mostly came out of the bullpen. That obviously lends itself to higher velocities. Most likely, Estrada’s velocity dip is most likely a result of transitioning to the starting rotation, not an indication of a potential injury.

Despite Estrada’s career year in 2012, he doesn’t project to cost and arm and a leg on draft day. In the most recent auction draft discussed on this site, Estrada went for $4. In the most recent snake draft, he wasn’t drafted until round 18. For a starting pitcher who can potentially provide value in strikeouts, WHIP, ERA, and wins, that’s a steal.

Yesterday, fellow RotoGrapher Chris Cwik outlined why he considered Orioles starter Chris Tillman a sleeper. He made some valid points and even sprinkled in some of the negatives that make my argument a bit easier to make. I was actually a fan of Tillman’s last year and picked him up in several leagues shortly after his promotion. But my excitement quickly dwindled and I have revoked my membership in the Chris Tillman Fan Club. This is why.

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Chris Tillman is going to be a very popular pick at the end of most drafts this season. Every year, there are a couple of guys that get touted all offseason, causing other owners to make a fuss when a team finally drafts them. In my experiences so far, Tillman is one of those guys. In an experts draft I participated in, Tillman’s selection caused the most “nice pick” messages from other owners. And in the RotoGraphs early mock, at least two other league members told me they liked Tillman where I took him. The love that Tillman has received already is going to make him a sleeper that virtually every owner knows about going into your draft. The fact that he had a 2.93 ERA is going to attract even the most basic fantasy owners. While he might not turn into a superstar this season, Tillman deserves the sleeper hype.

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The pre-season prediction reviews continue this week and today I recap my bold hitter league leaders. Since these players were meant to be bold choices, I purposely did not pick any of the obvious guys or anyone I thought might not be considered very bold. Though I expected to hit a couple of my bold predictions, it would have been quite a surprise if I actually hit on any of these league leaguers. Let’s see how I did.

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When scouting we get a snapshot of a player. The hope is, the player we see today evolves into the player we envision him to be. Ideally, we can watch this progression and alter our perspectives as time passes. That brings me to today’s prospect, Oakland’s Addison Russell. Twice this year I’ve had the chance to see Russell with the Vermont Lake Monsters of the New York – Penn League. But, a year before I was able to see him live, my Bullpen Banter colleague Steve Fiorindo scouted Russell at the Perfect Game Showcase in San Diego. After several weeks and a promotion, Stephen Kuperman was able to see him against more advanced pitching in the Midwest League. It is my hope that these three individual looks at Russell demonstrates that prospects evolve over time and while we can learn a lot in a single look at a player, scouting in small sample sizes can be problematic if we aren’t open to new information and making adjustments. Of course, I’ll also talk about his fantasy outlook, but you’ll have to humor me for just a moment.

Before I begin, take a brief look at Steve’s video of Russell at the Perfect Game Showcase. Read the rest of this entry »

On Monday, I took a look at the hitter BABIP leaders and tried to determine how sustainable those marks were for 2013. Today, I will check in on the bottom dwellers in the metric. This could be your initial list of undervalued hitters in next year’s fantasy drafts.

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