On June 28, Jean Segura was on pace to hit .332 with 23 home runs, 94 runs scored, 67 RBI, and 50 stolen bases, placing his performance among the elite shortstops in recent years. And that was after he had cooled significantly after a white-hot start. Today, his pace suggests he’ll finish up at .298/13/79/53/48. That’s nothing to scoff at, and it significantly outperforms even the most pre-season projection for him. But it most certainly points out that something has gone awry from the end of June to where we currently stand.

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We’re going real deep today folks for perhaps the last deep league waiver wire piece of the 2013 season. If you’re looking for middle infield help, it’s your lucky day!

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If you drafted a shortstop early this year, chances are you’re looking back and you’re pretty disappointed. That’s because very few of those shortstops drafted as starters in a 12-team league returned positive value relative to their draft positions.

This analysis will use Yahoo’s Average Draft Positions (ADP), and while a lot of people also play in auction leagues, it stands to reason that ADP and auction dollars would be tightly correlated. And of course, comparing ADP to actual value rank perhaps isn’t fair since the context of the rest of a person’s draft is required, but it should still be a good approximation of the majority.

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While it seems like time is rapidly running out, there are still roughly three weeks to go in the regular season and that’s still enough time to make a move in a few of the categories involving counting stats. Runs scored and stolen bases are still available on your waiver wire and while it might take the full three weeks to see some results, an impact can still be made…hopefully. With such little time left, you’ve got to pull out all the stops and every bit of help counts. Here are two guys who can probably help in those categories. Read the rest of this entry »

Ian Desmond has come a long way. Two years ago, Desmond was in the conversation for worst regular in the majors. He couldn’t hit, rarely walked and didn’t even provide value on defense. At 25-years-old, it wasn’t as if Desmond was a young prospect figuring things out. Just when it looked like he was a lost cause, Desmond started to figure things out. Over the past two seasons, he’s taken himself from borderline starter to one of the best shortstops in the game.

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Believe it or not, when I solicited future shortstop topics last week, the name that came up the most was Brad Miller of the Seattle Mariners.

Don’t get me wrong, I like Miller just fine, and I thought his .297 wOBA ZiPS projection was low, too. It’s just…it’s Brad Miller. People got on me for analyzing if Adeiny Hechavarria would ever steal enough to have value, but the people demand a Miller analysis?

He’s 33rd in shortstop value for the year but at age 23 he has some potential growth, and at this position the path to being fantasy relevant is a pretty smooth one. So let’s have a look.

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The Diamondbacks recalled shortstop Chris Owings to the big leagues a few days ago as part of the September roster expansion, and any time you get an infielder in his age-21 season who just won both the Rookie of the Year and the Most Valuable Player awards in the Pacific Coast League, it stands that you should take notice.

Of course, the Diamondbacks already have Didi Gregorius at shortstop, and he’s just 23 himself. So as I try to parse the long-term situation in Arizona at the position, I keep coming back to these three thoughts:  Read the rest of this entry »

As the calendar’s turned to September, many fantasy owners have probably turned their attention toward solidifying their dynasty teams for 2014. That is, not everyone is left competing right now, and it’s difficult not to look ahead to next year if a shot at a podium position isn’t realistic.

Even a championship contender, though, can think long term in a dynasty format. Perhaps the trading deadline hasn’t passed or doesn’t exist. Or perhaps an injury or performance issue has an owner scanning the waiver wire for a new shortstop, but the owner wants the add to be a long-term fix rather than a short-term plug.

These are situations that don’t apply to all owners, of course, but dynasty leaguers can never stop thinking about the future.

Luckily, Fangraphs affords fantasy players a tool in this regard – the ZiPS “Rest of Season” projections.

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Adeiny Hechavarria has a problem.

He can’t steal bases. He’s been caught nine times in just 20 tries this season, a terrible success rate well below what any team, even an offensively inept team like the Miami Marlins, would consider their “break-even” success rate.

In the minors, Hechavarria stole 42 bases and was caught 23 times, a rate that’s a bit better but still largely unimpressive. If there was hope that 2013 might be an anomaly, his 2011 minor league season likely kills that hope, as he went 20-for-37 across three levels.

Hechavarria can’t steal, and it’s basically kept him from having any fantasy potential.

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On average, Starlin Castro was the third shortstop selected on draft day, somewhere between the third and fourth rounds. He represented an intriguing power/speed option at an offensively-challenged position, and best of all, he only turned 23 in March so he was on the correct part of the age curve. No one can be blamed for buying high on the young man.

Yet, it’s August 23, and Castro is hitting .238/.274/.335 with seven home runs and eight stolen bases. His .270 wOBA ranks fourth-worst amongst qualified shortstops, and even Nick Franklin has provided more fantasy value on the season — despite not playing a big-league game until May 27. It’s frankly been a disastrous season across the board for Starlin Castro. Perhaps it’s best summed up by pointing out that he’s been worth almost four fewer wins than he was each of the previous two seasons. Four wins!

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