It’s Getting Worse For Starlin Castro
On average, Starlin Castro was the third shortstop selected on draft day, somewhere between the third and fourth rounds. He represented an intriguing power/speed option at an offensively-challenged position, and best of all, he only turned 23 in March so he was on the correct part of the age curve. No one can be blamed for buying high on the young man.
Yet, it’s August 23, and Castro is hitting .238/.274/.335 with seven home runs and eight stolen bases. His .270 wOBA ranks fourth-worst amongst qualified shortstops, and even Nick Franklin has provided more fantasy value on the season — despite not playing a big-league game until May 27. It’s frankly been a disastrous season across the board for Starlin Castro. Perhaps it’s best summed up by pointing out that he’s been worth almost four fewer wins than he was each of the previous two seasons. Four wins!
Our own Mike Petriello wrote about his problems earlier this season, and he indicated that many of his issues have stemmed from walking less and striking out more. That’s absolutely correct. While not necessarily the cause of his struggles, it signals that something is wrong with his approach or his mechanics. Just like the fact that his contact percentage on pitches in the strike zone has fallen this season.
| Year | O-Contact% | Z-Contact% |
|---|---|---|
| 2011 | 71.2% | 92.9% |
| 2012 | 71.2% | 91.1% |
| 2013 | 71.7% | 87.7% |
The decreased walk rate, increased strikeout rate and decreased zone-contact rate all raise serious warning signs that Starlin Castro is struggling with his mechanics at the plate. Manager Dale Sveum, a former hitting coach in Milwaukee, noted over the summer that Castro’s mechanics have changed throughout his big-league career, and not in a positive way:
“I’d like to see him back to where he was back in 2010 and 2011 when there was a lot less movement going on. He thinks they’re the same mechanics, but they’re not the same mechanics from when he came up to the big leagues or even 2011. It might look the same, but there’s way more movement when the pitch is being delivered.”
Sveum emphasized that there is a lot to like about Castro’s mechanics, saying that if he can eliminate the excessive movement, his hand-eye coordination allows him to hit any pitch. Sveum focused in on Castro’s leg kick, more open stance and movement with his hands as things that have changed mechanically for Castro since he first entered the league. Sveum said slight mechanical changes are often something that happens with players throughout their careers. They slowly develop bad habits, over time they get more pronounced and it may take a while before the player even realizes it’s happened and eventually adjusts.
These bad habits have resulted in a career-high 19.7% strikeout rate and a career-low .098 ISO. And things aren’t getting better. In the last 30 days, Castro has compiled a putrid .216 wOBA, which is the third-worst mark in the league over that time frame. Only fellow black-hole shortstops Adeiny Hechavarria and Alcides Escobar have performed worse. Furthermore, his strikeout rate in the last 30 days is a massive 26.3% and his ISO continues to tumble at .054.
At this point, it’s likely a combination of mechanical problems and a loss of confidence at the plate. He’s trying to swing himself out of a slump, and it’s clearly not working. For fantasy owners prepping for the stretch run in September, it would be wise to avoid Starlin Castro at all costs. Don’t grab him off the waiver wire and hope for a final-month rebound. There are no signs this slump is about to end. In fact, it seems to be getting worse.
It will be interesting to see how Castro is valued next spring, though. He could be one of the most popular sleepers in fantasy baseball, as many owners could see an opportunity to buy low after an uncharacteristically down season. After all, he’s only 23 years old, and the physical talent still remains. This season, though, he’ll go down as one of the biggest fantasy busts in Major League Baseball.
J.P. Breen is a graduate student at the University of Chicago. For analysis on the Brewers and fantasy baseball, you can follow him on Twitter (@JP_Breen).
He looks pretty bad at the plate. To me, it looks like he’s lunging and his front side is completely breaking down. And no adjustments have been made. Between him and Rizzo and, well, pretty much everyone else in the cubs lineup, you would think some changes would be made with the coaching staff.
It’s kinda sad. He looked like he was turning a corner and turning into at least a shell of himself rather recently, but he’s just made it his goal to shed all confidence put in him at this point. What a waste of an early draft pick.
I traded Jean segura for him in week 3…….. That feels worse than a wasted draft pick.
That will sting.
To be fair, given what we knew at the time that seems like a fantastic trade.
Someone in our league drafted him with his 2nd pick, if it makes you feel any better.
I kept him for this year and finally cut ties with him this week. He has no value even at 6 dollars in a 260 dollar league.
I finally dropped him this week too Isaac. Had him at $7. Can a team finish #2 for the season using that huge black hole that is Castro. Thankfully the Orioles Davis and Jones have carried my quite a bit. Back to Starlin. Ahhhh!!
The most disturbing part of this article is when Sveum is quoted as saying: “He thinks they’re the same mechanics, but they’re not…..”. This indicates to me that the coaches have been trying to get Castro to adjust but he has been unwilling to do so.
Yeah this makes me slow down when I hear people start throwing the coaches under the bus. Could very well be that Sveum and his staff are trying to get him to adjust some stuff and he just can’t/won’t do it. Doesn’t add up to a great sleeper pick in 2014 if you ask me.
Totally agree.
I think this play kind of sums up his season:
http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/gameday/index.jsp?gid=2013_07_04_chnmlb_oakmlb_1&mode=video&content_id=28600091&tcid=vpp_copy_28600091
I’ve always been a fan of his. Not what he does but his courage and his ….
F$&$!
Nevermind.
I’ve tried everything to fix this. I mean I have batted him leadoff, second, third, fourth, fifth, sixth, seventh, eighth. A new spot every day! If that doesn’t bring back his confidence, what else can I do?
Nice job, Dave. Have you talked to your cousin Dale about this? He is, you know, the manager.
I think I’ll change my name back to something more normal. Like Iorg.
I wonder if he’s a very good “buy extremely low” candidate for 2014?
Personally, I wouldn’t touch him until late late rounds of the draft, but…
Next year he’ll face the possibility of being traded or losing playing time as well if he keeps regressing. Cubs SS prospect Javier Baez has turned a corner in his development at the AA level and will likely start the season at AAA with the possibility of a second-half call-up.
Send him to the minors to get his crap together. He needs a reality check.
Just to add to this, he is seeing fastballs 5% more this year than in previous years. This uptick is partially caused due to bad mechanics, resulting in a decreased wFB for that pitch and teams wanting to capitalize on this glaring weakness. This is all mechanical here.
A terrible year for Castro. He’s had mental gaffs & been benched more than once each year since being a Cubbie. The lack of speed in his attempt to score vs Oakland’s Cespesdes is a good example.
Even better was this year’s Aug. 17th Cub-Cardinal game…..short right field pop up, bases loaded, Castro goes out makes the catch and then just kinda how hums, hey I’ve got the ball, guess that’s the third out, WHAT, WTF….the runner Jay on third has tagged and of course nicely beats Castro’s late throw. Benched upon coming into the dugout at the end of that inning. Guess I’d rather have had that hot headed Dominican Joaquin Andujar than the lackadaisical Dominican Castro.
He hasn’t been benched “more than once each year since being a Cubbie.”
He had one of the longest consecutive games played streaks in the game up until his first benching this year.
He’s nothing more than a prospect Jim Hendry screwed up by calling up too early to win no playoff games. As soon as his BABIP predictably cratered, so did his offensive production. It’s not just a mechanical issue.