A few weeks ago, I looked at some dynasty first base targets. I’ll eventually be covering every position over the offseason. Today, it’s time for second base. There are roughly 20 second base prospects I consider worthy of rostering in a true dynasty format. So as to keep this article accessible for owners in normal leagues, I’ll focus on four of the biggest names at the position.

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I am pretty sure no one saw an eighth overall 3B ranking from the Giants Matt Duffy. Coming into 2015, he seemed to be a nice late piece in NL-only and deep leagues for the stolen bases and a decent average. The twelve home runs seemed to materialize out of nowhere. He was one of only twenty players with more than 10 HR, 10 SB, and greater than a .280 AVG in 2015. I get the feeling people don’t expect a repeat performance in 2016 and after looking over his performance I think his limited power is legit.

I will start with the easy projections, speed and batting average. The 25-year-old should be able to have a stolen base total in the low teens looking at his history.

Season: Combined SB
2012: 10
2013: 25
2014: 20
2015: 12

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The numbers on the surface tell a really good story for Minnesota Twins second baseman Brian Dozier. Just one of his contemporaries was even within 10 of Dozier’s MLB-high — among second basemen — 28 home runs (Robinson Cano, 21). Similarly, just one player was within 10 of his MLB-high 101 runs scored (Ian Kinsler, 94). His 77 RBIs (No. 2, Cano) and 12 steals (tied at No. 8 with Jace Peterson) were nothing to sneeze at either, and he was sixth (of 20) among qualified second basemen in walk rate as well at 8.7 percent.

It’s pretty clear to see why Dozier jumped to No. 6 in Zach Sanders’ end-of-season second base rankings with a value of nearly $18 in a $260 auction, 5×5 format. He was a four category stalwart who only really hurt owners in batting average, where his .236 mark paled in comparison to the MLB mark of .261 for second sackers. Read the rest of this entry »

Rougned Odor provided his owners with $5 of value, but that hides the Jekyll and Hyde nature of his season. If you drafted Odor, chances are you dropped or traded him along the way. And I bet you’re kicking yourself – especially in keeper leagues.

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Entering the 2015 season, Kolten Wong was basking in the glow of a strong playoff series where he hit 3 HR’s. His Regular Season numbers in his Rookie season spoke to the inconsistencies of most young batters, but his output as a 24-year-old hitter with a good glove, and in a strong lineup, certainly commanded attention. Wong demonstrated a quick bat as a Rookie and it was not a leap of faith to expect that with experience his numbers would get even better in his Sophomore Season.

Three respected Projection Systems saw Wong producing these numbers in 2015….

In the run up to the All-Star break, Wong put together a very strong .280/.343/.434 line with a .777 OPS and a .337 wOBA. In 353 PAs, he hit 9 HRs, 18 doubles, 2 triples, had 44 runs, 37 RBIs, and 10 steals. His .310 BABIP was unremarkable and he sported a .154 ISO. With this kind of start, that incidentally should have earned him stronger consideration as an All-Star, he was well ahead of the projections. Wong seemed poised to deliver on the promise that we all hoped to see and even a good bit more.

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So who had DJ LeMahieu as the fourth most valuable second baseman? According to our mathery, LeMahieu was worth a hair under $19 – more than Brian Dozier, Jason Kipnis, and Robinson Cano. Only Dee Gordon, Jose Altuve, and Ian Kinsler outperformed him.

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You’ve read the title. Hold that thought.

The Toronto Blue Jays acquired second baseman Devon Travis from the Detroit Tigers last offseason. Having never played above Double-A prior to 2015, the Jays thrust Travis into major league action in a trial by fire. He held his own and then some, hitting a robust .304/.361/.498 with eight home runs and three stolen bases in only 238 plate appearances.

Travis may have experienced some good luck, benefiting from a .347 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) as well as a 16-percent rate of home runs per fly ball (HR/FB) — an impressive rate for a 5-foot-9, 195-pound 24-year-old. The 50-percent ground ball rate (GB%) and somewhat lowly 27.8-percent hard-hit rate (Hard%) don’t help his case in regard to the latter, either.

So Travis’ .194 isolated power (ISO) may not hold up under duress of the 2016 season. But he did post decent ISOs in the minors — .210 at High-A in 2013, .161 at Double-A in 2014 — and although the quality of competition pales in comparison to the real thing, it wouldn’t be unheard of for Travis to develop a modest power stroke. Kid’s something of a doubles machine, which would be a boon to any stat line.

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Robinson Cano was a usually considered a first round pick for years until he signed with the Mariners. This past season, he came in as the 7th best 2B according to our end-of-season rankings. While not horrible finish, he was consistently in the top few for several seasons. After looking over Cano’s season, I think the 2015 results will be more of the same going forward.

Several factors have been limiting Cano’s potential since leaving the Yankees. Some under his control, some not. I will start with his drop in home runs. After peaking at 33 home runs in 2012, he has hit 14 and 21 the past two seasons. While he did have just an 11% HR/FB% in 2014, he put up a 16% value in 2015 which was 3rd highest career value. His 2015 Hard Hit% was at 32.4% was almost the same as a career 32.8%. Cano’s power doesn’t seem to be taking a nose dive. His power is down for one reason, fewer flyballs and the not spacious Safeco field.

Before signing with the Mariners, he had a career 31% FB%. In his two years with the Mariners, it is 25%. I think he has got it in his head that he can’t hit the ball out of Safeco, so he isn’t trying but should. He hasn’t been affected by the stadium with 21 HR hit in Seattle and 15 away. If I was going to look at one time for Cano to improve on in 2016, I would like to see him put a little more loft on the ball.

With the decline in home runs, he will have a lower number of Runs and RBI. The drop in home runs explains some of his drop in Runs and RBI, but the biggest cause has been the anemic Seattle offense. Here are Cano’s last R+RBI totals along with his team’s overall runs scored per game over the past 5 seasons.

Season: R/G, Run+RBI

2011: 5.35, 222
2012: 4.96, 197
2013: 4.01, 188
2014: 3.91, 159
2015: 4.05, 161

A drop of 60 R+RBI is huge while even the drop of 30 from 2013 is nothing to sneeze at. If Cano gets around 25 HR, the Mariners lack of hitting talent will limit his upside.

The final noticeable change was his drop in BB% from 9.2% in 2014 to 6.4%. The cause for the drop can be attributed to a drop in his intentional walk rate. Here are his overall walk rates and non-intention walk rates for the past four seasons.

2012: 8.8%, 7.4%
2013: 9.5% 7.4%
2014: 9.2%, 6.4%
2015: 6.4%, 5.7%
Career: 7.7%, 6.4%

For people worried about a declining plate discipline, don’t. His real walk rate is in line with his previous values. Those owners in OBP leagues, the drop may be permanent and taken into account.

For 2016, I think 2015 Cano is the floor. His AVG could increase after it was at his lowest level since 2008. His power could jump by hitting a few more home runs. Also, the Mariners offense could regress after scoring the 3rd lowest amount of runs in the AL last year. I am a small bit more optimistic that his Steamer projection (18 HR, 157 R+RBI, .285 AVG) with 20 HR, 165 R+RBI, a .300 AVG. I really see this past season as a floor and he could see quite a bit more upside.

2015 Visualized: First Base
2015 Visualized: Catcher

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For the next few weeks, the RotoGraphs staff will devote an entire week to each defensive position, including spotlights on particular players as well as trends throughout the 2015 season. This week, we’re highlighting second basemen.

I don’t claim to be a Tableau (or data visualization) whiz by any means, but I thought it would be cool to visually represent the second base landscape in 2015 — with some analysis sprinkled in.

Steamer and ZiPS represent premier player projection systems; FanGraphs’ Depth Charts combines the two, and the writing staff allocate playing time accordingly. The playing time part is less important relative to the combined projections, as aggregated projections tend to perform better than standalones.

I compared projected wOBA (weighted on-base average) from the preseason to actual wOBA (1) by team and (2) by player within team. Unlike WAR, wOBA is a rate metric, so it does not need to be scaled according to playing time.

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Logan Forsythe came out of nowhere for the Rays last year. There he was: 28 years old and suddenly 15% better than he ever was before, in twice as much playing time as he’d ever had in a season, no less. There’s some power growth, some added patience, and some of the best batted ball luck and defensive numbers of his career. What part of this do we believe going forward?

To answer that question, we should probably try to find the source of that growth. That’ll help us suss the likelihood that the growth sticks.

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