Addison Russell Surprises and Disappoints
Heading into the season, Addison Russell was ranked as the Cubs’ second best prospect and third best prospect in baseball. After finishing last year at the Double-A level, he figured to open the year at Triple-A and remain there for the majority, if not all, of the 2015 season. But that didn’t happen.
After recording just 46 plate appearances at Triple-A, Russell was summoned to make his Major League debut just four days after uber prospect Kris Bryant arrived in Chicago. While we assumed that Russell would get a September cup of coffee and perhaps the most aggressive of guesses pegged him coming up at some point over the summer, I’m assuming that absolutely no one expected him to be recalled as early as he was. He had just turned 21 a couple of months earlier and his entire Triple-A experience comprised of just 59 total plate appearances.
At Double-A in 2014, Russell displayed excellent power, while making above average contact. A measly 4.4% walk rate was a slight concern, but plate discipline improves with age, so it was too early to really worry about. Interestingly, his walk rate with the Cubs was actually one of the pleasant surprises. He posted a rate almost double what he posted at Double-A, reminding us of the patience he showed back at High-A in 2013 (12.1% BB%).
Unfortunately, the increased patience resulted in far too many strikeouts. His SwStk% of 13.7% wasn’t outrageously high, especially for a 21 year-old with little Triple-A experience, but it was unacceptable for someone who showed just modest power and walked at just about a league average clip. His discipline metrics actually weren’t alarming though. His O-Swing% was right at league average, while he swung a bit more at pitches inside the strike zone. Sounds okay to me.
The issue he faced was making contact with those pitches outside the zone. He posted the fourth lowest O-Contact% among all qualified hitters and was surrounded by names that strike out very frequently. But Russell’s Z-Contact% was the highest of that bunch, suggesting improvement next year.
Russell posted a .147 ISO, which was roughly league average, but respectable coming from the shortstop position. His batted ball distance was also respectable given his age and position, and came in around 280 feet, which is just above the league average. But there are good signs moving forward for his power. He hit fly balls at a 40% clip and he pulled over 40% of his batted balls. Neither of those numbers are good for BABIP, but they certainly are for power. With just about a league average HR/FB rate, there is ample room for a surge as he reaches his power prime.
Speaking of BABIP, his batted ball profile doesn’t appear to support a .324 mark. His line drive rate was below average, he hit far too many pop-ups and he hit fly balls at a greater than league average rate. I would bet on regression next year unless he tilts that distribution in a more BABIP-friendly direction.
So was Russell really a disappointment in his MLB debut? If you knew he would be up just two and a half weeks into the season and then learned that he would still rank just 19th among shortstops in total fantasy value for the season, I think you would consider that somewhat disappointing. Part of that though was something he had little control over and is going to be a question mark until spring training rolls around.
That question is his spot in the batting order. About 84% of Russell’s at-bats came from the nine hole directly following the pitcher. That drastically reduced his plate appearances, dragging down his counting stats and reducing his opportunities to drive in runners since the man directly in front of him would rarely be on base.
As the roster is currently constructed, Roster Resource is projecting Russell to open the year in the leadoff slot. Obviously, that would be a boon to Russell’s fantasy value. But the Cubs are unlikely to stick with him there unless he is able to improve upon his .307 OBP, something Steamer is not projecting him to do. Since manager Joe Maddon has already shown a willingness to hit Russell at the bottom of the lineup behind the pitcher, there is a wide range of possible outcomes for Russell next year. He’ll be an interesting player to invest in for sure.
Mike Podhorzer is the founder of ProjectingX IQ, an advanced fantasy baseball analytics platform that transforms projection data and in-season performance signals into actionable intelligence. He is the 2015 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Baseball Writer of the Year and three-time Tout Wars champion. He is the author of the eBook Projecting X 2.0: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance, which teaches you how to project players yourself. Follow Mike on X@MikePodhorzer and contact him via email.
I don’t know, man. Was that season really disappointing? I guess it’s our differing expectations, but I was worried that he got rushed up so quickly that he might fall apart in his first go-around like Baez. Decent pop, just ok plate discipline and some things that need improving sounds about right to me.
Doesn’t a normal career trajectory predict that, because Russell was an average hitter in his age 21 season, we can expect much, much more production up the road? At least that’s what I was told in an old Bill James Abstract. Holding his own at this early age should mean big things in his 23-27 age seasons, I’m guessing.
I’m not at all worried going forward. Some of the coming regression on BABIP will be canceled out by regression of a bad reverse split against lefties.
Against righties, he hit .268/.328/.418, which is really respectable for a 21-year-old shortstop in his first experience in the majors, who also plays excellent to fantastic defense.
Against lefties, he hit .156/.233/.294. That came courtesy of a .208 BABIP, which is mostly derived from a ludicrous 27% infield fly ball rate.
Now, his 11% infield fly ball rate against righties is also a bit too high, but not horribly so. And the .358 BABIP against righties is coming down, as Mike pointed out.
But unless you think he’s the rare righthander who can’t hit lefties but does just fine against righties (is there anyone like that??), he’s going to be fine next year.
About 80% of his PA came against righties this year. Let’s assume he doesn’t actually improve on any of his skills, but the results regress to the mean. His BABIP against righties might come down to .320 (or lower, potentially). A .321 BABIP means nine fewer singles against righties and would have made his slash line against righties .243/.306/.393. Not as strong, but still good enough.
But if he manages to just improve the infield fly rate against lefties and therefore the BABIP, he’ll be markedly better. I don’t think a .280 BABIP against lefties is at all out of the question, unless the infield flies are some weird thing he has.
A .278 BABIP against lefties would have given him a .201/.275/.294 against lefties. That’s with the extra hits all counted as singles, just like I did with righties.
His new overall BABIP would be .291, and his overall slash would be .234/.299/.381.
So if he was less lucky against righties but more lucky against lefties this year, his overall line would have been slightly worse. But if you think a .281 BABIP against lefties (with no improvement in power or walks) is too low of a regression, his overall line quickly improves. And that’s with factoring in a sharp BABIP regression against righties and no improvement in any of his skills (which seems unlikely).
So even a small improvement in BB/K rate and a more normal lefty result, he’ll be even better. And if he actually hits lefties as well or better than righties going forward (he’s been slightly worse against them in the minors), then watch out.
I think it’s safe to predict AT LEAST, a .250/.320/.400 season next year. To me, that’s the bare minimum, barring injury.
There have been many players with that reverse split. I remember Mike Sweeney having a HUGE split – almost worthless against lefties but ripped righties..
There are others too.. Ron Santo was a famous Cubby who hit righties better than lefties. Ernie Banks did too. Greg Colbrunn if I remember. Tim Salmon. Andruw Jones.. But I remember Sweeney really sticking out..
Well, he did improve 1st half to 2nd half. is there reason to expect a Odur type of transition? When does the light come on? Even Trout struggled first couple hundred ABs of his career.
IF we bet on the upside the BB rate sticks, the K% drops to 20-22%, the ISO jumps to .175 to .200 or maybe better? Wrigley is a good place to hit. And he’s got some speed. It would not shock me to see him hit .280 with a .330 OBP and 20HR. It also wouldn’t shock me to see him hit .250/290/12…
Yeah, I am deciding whether to keep him in my league, but already have Correa and Seager at SS, but would be fine since I could start Russell at 2B, and Seager at MI. However, I really do worry that Russell gets stuck in the bottom 3 of the order once again. Just too many studs in the lineup that he likely isn’t going to pass up, and the CF spot will likely be used on someone that can hit better than him.
Assuming you have Rizzo, Bryant and Schwarber at 3, 4, 5, and probably Soler at 2 (and that’s a little iffy), you’d have the C, Castro, CF and Russell battling it out for the top spot. We’ll throw out the C. CF if the Cubs plan on putting Schwarber in LF regularly and I think they will, they’ll be looking defense first. That leaves Russell battling it out with Castro and the CF for the leadoff spot, and given his youth and BA upside and good BB rate he has a good shot to get it.