If you’re in a fierce battle in the wins or strikeouts categories, or both, you are no doubt considering streaming pitchers if your league uses daily transactions. So let’s take a look at the pitchers owned in less than 50% of CBS leagues who are scheduled to start on Thursday and determine who warrants a pickup and who’s at risk of destroying your ratios.
I’d say the easiest category to make up ground in the final week is stolen bases. They could come in bunches and it’s easy to identify the players that contribute in the category. Often times speedsters are sitting on free agency as they contribute little else outside the steals. But heading into the final week of the season, you might not care about the other categories, just getting those three extra steals that will gain you a point or two. So here are five lesser owned named that are likely available and could give you that jolt you may need.
As I sometimes do when searching for a topic, I decided to scan the last 30 day K% leaderboard among AL starting pitchers to see if any surprises sit near the top. Sure enough, one name stood out — Daniel Norris, who ranked sixth with a 27.7% mark. This is a guy who had posted strong strikeout rates in the minors, has sometimes struggled with his control, but the strikeout ability didn’t translate to the Majors last year in 13 starts. As I’ve done with a couple of pitchers previously, let’s compared the relevant metrics during his 2015 season, first four appearances this year, and his eight starts since being recalled and returning to the Tigers rotation on August 9th.
Seattle’s Edwin Diaz was called on for the four-out save and was tasked with facing the heart of Toronto’s line-up. After striking out Josh Donaldson to end the 8th, he then struck out Edwin Encarnacion to start the 9th and had to face Jose Bautista with a one-run lead. Well, Bautista took him deep for his second blown save of the season and the first earned run he had given up since August 30th when he blew his first save against Texas as well. The Mariners would win in the bottom of the 12th taking Diaz off the hook as Nick Vincent got his fourth win and R.A. Dickey gave up an unearned run to suffer his 15th loss.
Jeurys Familia suffered his fifth blown save of the season, although it was not your traditional one out save. With two on and one out in the 8th, Familia was called on for the 5-out save. After a double steal put two runners in scoring position and the Braves down by one, Matt Kemp would hit a sacrifice fly to tie the game, even though the run was unearned for set-up man Addison Reed as the runner, Ender Inciarte, reached on an error by James Loney. Familia would get out of the inning and come on for the 9th, when the Braves scored with two singles, a sac bunt, and a fielder’s choice. The game was not over as Jim Johnson came on in the 9th for the Braves looking for the sweep. After giving up a hit and a walk, with two outs Yoenis Cespedes stepped up to the plate and ripped one to deep center that looked like it was gone and would’ve given the Mets the dramatic win. Inciarte, however, would strike again and robbed Cespedes of a homer to secure Johnson’s 17th save.
Quick Hits: With Ken Giles unavailable after pitching two straight days, Luke Gregerson came on for his first save opportunity since July 6th. He gave up an unearned run, but managed to hold on for the save (15). Daniel Hudson held on for the 4-out save (4) in Arizona. Andrew Bailey (4), Tony Watson (15), and Cody Allen (15) all earned saves tonight, with Allen giving up a run in the 9th.
Closer Grid:
[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]
Many years ago I met the woman who would become my future wife while we were standing in line to get into a bar. While I had been to that bar on a few occasions before, I was only there because a friend of mine had been invited to a toga party on the following night by a coworker of his and asked them if I could come along since I was new to the area and he wanted to meet me first. As I was waiting to enter the establishment, I heard the woman in front of me talking about this party. I looked up to see the most beautiful woman standing in front of me, so I used the party as an opening.
“You’re going to a toga party?” I asked. “I’m going to a toga party too! I hear it is like a frat house. I can’t wait! It should be crazy.”
That is when I got the answer I was not expecting. Read the rest of this entry »
Ahhhh, mid-September, when fantasy owners out of the running for a prize spot shift their attention to football, leaving all the hidden gems to you! It’s a wonderful time of year as sudden full-timers are free for the taking on your deep league roster. Here are two of ’em.
Robbie Ray’s latest eight strikeout, five runs allowed effort, has continued what has become a baffling season from a results perspective. His 4.66 ERA is obviously poor and ranks 13th worst among all qualified Major League starters. But he has still attracted interest from fantasy owners thanks to a plethora of strikeouts. Let’s take a look at where he ranks in a variety of metrics among 78 qualified starters to get a better idea of just how bizarre his performance has truly been.
I’m finally back from my two week Slovenia/Croatia jaunt (feel free to discuss the wonders of either of those countries in the comments) and what else does one write about when not totally in the loop? More home run surprises, of course! I continue to be in shock at some of the home run total, so let’s discuss more of them.
On Wednesday I lamented about how my year-long infatuation with prospect Nick Williams blinded me from seeing offensive value in other places that would likely have put my team in a better position during a rebuild. Today I’ll take the same approach, focusing on the pitching side, and will use Jose Berrios as my prospect scapegoat. Like Williams, I’ve owned Berrios since well before the 2016 season began, and invested fully into the scouting reports of a potential #2 starting pitcher. Better yet, I was convinced Berrios was more “polished” than most prospect pitchers, and that his strong command would quickly smooth out the inevitably bumpy transition through MLB lineups. Fast forward now to mid-September and Berrios has a 9.27 ERA in 44 IP, which includes 28 BB’s and 2.0 HR/9. And yet, I still own him…
Using Ottoneu ownership and average salary data as of September, I limited my filter to all players currently owned for $3 or less, and then hand-selected a few pitchers who (using FIP and P/IP as quick standards for YTD value) appear to have enough future value to be at least as interesting as Jose Berrios once was to me so long (not really) ago.
Last Friday, September 9, baseball saw its 4,910th home run of the season hit, passing the total number hit in all of 2015. If you’re reading this, then you’ve probably known about the spike in home run rates since mid-2015 for a while now. I started to pay close attention to the trend when I read the first of Rob Arthur’s and Ben Lindbergh’s articles on FiveThirtyEight (one, two, and three) that posited that a juiced baseball could be responsible for the change. That was more than five months ago, and the trend has not slowed down since then.
In fantasy, the increase in power is particularly important because it undermines the value of hitters whose elite home run totals no longer stand out to the same extent. With still almost three weeks left in the season, 91 hitters have already reached 20 or more home runs. That’s the most players at that benchmark in a season since 2008. If this power surge continues, then the Khris Davises and Chris Carters of the world will lose a lot of value. Why reach for them when Brad Miller has 28 home runs and Marcus Semien has 24 home runs? Suddenly, speed is the scarce resource.
