I’m not sure I have this whole bold predictions thing figured out. As has been the case for me in the past, several of my predictions this season produced useful fantasy advice. In particular, avoiding Jake Arrieta and drafting Jose Berrios, Dylan Bundy, Ender Inciarte, and Luke Weaver would have helped your team. But that was not enough to make any of my predictions actually correct.
After squeaking out the top finish in the inaugural 2016 Tout Wars Head-to-Head league, I moved to the 15-team mixed auction league. It was an interesting season and here are some of my “highlights”.
Dear Disengaged Owner,
This has been hard for you in the past, but please read carefully. Today, we are officially ending our relationship.
I wish I could say it’s been fun, but I think we both know this is long overdue. As good as your original intentions may have been when you first joined our league, this is no longer meant to be. But don’t worry, it’s not me, it’s you.
Here’s everything you need to know about an unusually quiet weekend of bullpen activity around the major leagues:
Jeurys Familia has been moved back to the closer position on the grid for the Mets. A.J. Ramos has struggled as of late, and it was always assumed that Familia would at some point find his way back to the ninth inning for New York. Familia picked up his first save since May 5 on Friday (pitching 1/3 of an inning), then the following day he pitched a scoreless ninth in a tie game at home, as closers often do. Familia’s track record and projections indicate that he should have no problem being a very good closer again. He induces a ton of ground balls and limits the home run ball very well. Meanwhile, Ramos’s days as a must-own fantasy asset may be over if Familia has indeed regained the role of closer. Ramos could still have some value in holds leagues, but there are better options out there. Read the rest of this entry »
On Wednesday I reviewed the results of the first three rounds of a new dynasty league prospect draft. I’ll continue that review today with rounds 4 – 6, where some deeper, more interesting prospects appear.
Dynasty Prospect Draft Review: Rounds 1 – 3
This draft should help you “discover” a few names to keep an eye on going forward. If you have specific questions about players or the thought process of why they were selected, fire away in the comments section, as I’ve asked each owner in the league to be on standby to provide feedback as we review the rounds.
Before I review my own thoughts on the draft, you should know this Ottoneu league uses the “FanGraphs Points” scoring system based on linear weights, so offense is heavily slanted towards wOBA skills (and speed is almost a non-factor). We also somewhat arbitrarily removed the Top 12 overall offensive prospects to save them for the standard 40-man auction next spring. Otherwise, any minor league player without one (1) MLB PA or IP is eligible to be drafted. You can read more about the custom rules of this dynasty league here, and follow along with the draft here.
Many of the prospects below are also featured on the 2018 Top 100 Fantasy Prospects list.
Recently I created a new dynasty baseball league customized around the basic game of Ottoneu. The more you play Ottoneu the more you come to appreciate how deep the player pool really is, and the longer I play fantasy baseball the more interested I become in the minor league development process. While there is still plenty of luck involved, the satisfaction of “discovering” the next Rhys Hoskins before everyone else is a feeling that keeps me coming back to the game over and over.
In addition to the standard economics of Ottoneu where each league consists of twelve owners and 480 rostered players (minors and majors), our league will roster an additional 180 minor leaguers (15 extra per team) in an attempt to “develop” successful franchises for years to come. Since the regular MLB season is wrapping up soon and many fantasy owners are starting to look towards 2018, I thought it might be helpful to review our prospect draft over the next several posts to give you some insight into the valuation of these minor league lottery tickets. If nothing else, this draft should help you “discover” a few names to keep an eye on going forward. If you have specific questions about players or the thought process of why they were selected, fire away in the comments section, as I’ve asked each owner in the league to be on standby to provide feedback as we review the rounds.
On Friday, with the Royals leading by one over the Indians, Ryan Buchter pitched a scoreless sixth (with one strikeout), Trevor Cahill pitched a scoreless seventh and eighth (walking three), and it was Mike Minor who pitched a scoreless ninth with three strikeouts to earn his first save of the season.
The first two batters due up in the ninth for the Indians were right handed, and the next two were switch hitters, so the lefty Minor’s appearance in the ninth didn’t appear to be a matchup-based save opportunity. With Kelvin Herrera‘s struggles and Brandon Maurer’s difficulties with runners on base, there’s opportunity for fresh blood in the ninth, and it could very well be Minor who gets the most save chances down the stretch. He’s probably worth an add for those desperate for last-minute relief help. Read the rest of this entry »
Mookie Betts hit a pair of home runs against the Athletics on Tuesday, which hopefully for the Red Sox means that their star player’s power slump is over. Entering last Friday’s game, Betts had not homered in more than a month. Then, he hit this Fenway special.
Another exciting weekend of bullpen activity around the major leagues…
Kelvin Herrera is out as Royals closer, according to an ESPN report. Manager Ned Yost said the team will go with a closer-by-committee, utilizing Brandon Maurer, Mike Minor, or Scott Alexander to close games. Maurer picked up the save on Saturday, with Minor pitching 1.2 innings to bridge the gap from the starter to Maurer. As I mentioned in last weekend’s Report, Alexander may be the most intriguing of the bunch, but Yost seems to prefer Maurer because of his experience as a closer.
Shortly after being traded to the Cardinals, Juan Nicasio pitched 1.1 innings to earn the save against the Pirates on Friday. On Saturday, he struck out two and allowed one hit to pick up another save against the team that cut him loose earlier this month. Tyler Lyons pitched the eighth and John Brebbia pitched the seventh, so that’s the order we’re rolling with on the grid. The Cardinals bullpen situation has been quite volatile since Trevor Rosenthal got hurt, so Nicasio could easily grab the closer role and run with it if he continues to pitch well. Read the rest of this entry »
On Friday, for the second time in 11 days, Kelvin Herrera was pulled from an existing ninth inning because of discomfort in his throwing arm. Rustin Dodd of the Kansas City Star reported on Saturday that the Royals expect Herrera to be unavailable for at least three days because of what Dodd calls a “mild strain in the lower part of his right forearm.”
With Hererra still unavailable on Sunday, Scott Alexander struck out two in a scoreless inning (spanning the sixth and seventh), Peter Moylan retired the lone batter he faced in the seventh, Mike Minor walked two in a scoreless eighth, and Brandon Maurer worked around a leadoff two-base error and struck out one to secure his 21st save.
The Royals were blown out 17-0 on Saturday, so Sunday offered the only glimpse into their plan of attack with Herrera on the shelf. Herrera has not been very good season, so his job could be in jeopardy to some degree even if he comes back healthy in the next few days.
Alexander successfully converted the save both times Herrera had to depart mid-inning, and his numbers (2.24 ERA/3.33 FIP/3.12 xFIP) suggest he could enjoy continued success in the ninth if given the opportunity. Entering Sunday, he boasted a ridiculous 74.8 percent ground ball rate, a solid 20.5 percent strikeout rate, and an acceptable 9.6 percent walk rate in 45 appearances spanning 56.1 innings. Minor (2.86 ERA/2.71 FIP/3.60 xFIP in 66 innings) also seems like someone capable of closing out games. Read the rest of this entry »
