Archive for Roto

Like Monday, a really light on material today. Tomorrow, I promise to have a bunch of PAIN, SLOW, HURT and Zone% reports for consumption.

• Daniel Hudson is making some minor league rehab starts and is throwing his fastball around 93 mph.

His velocity has returned to pre-surgery levels. Arnsberg says Hudson has routinely pitched in the 93 mph range, even hitting 95 mph on consecutive pitches.

The velocity is close to his pre-TJS days. Stayed tuned to see if he can get back to his 2009 to 2010 production levels.

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We have been asked about Jarred Cosart once or twice for the podcast, and I have fielded a question or two about him in chats. At the time Eno addressed him on the podcast, he basically called Cossart a hurler about whom he’d have trouble becoming excited, because command and control have so persistently been problems for the right-hander. I have harbored some fascination with the right-hander for a few years, but I couldn’t really disagree.

I’ve become a tad more interested, again, now that he’s back with a Senior Circuit organization. Cosart’s “stuff” just intrigues me, as it does many; otherwise, he wouldn’t have been at least somewhat well-regarded by multiple organizations at one time or another. The issues he’s had with command threaten to be of the career-long variety because they’re rooted in that stuff. But I wonder a little about how crazy the stuff might be, perhaps unlike any others’ stuff, and if that isn’t the beauty of Cosart. It’s a catch-22, with insanity the only likely outcome, surely.

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Carl Crawford has stolen a base in each of his last four games and in five of his last six. I have had a few too many false starts in assuming Crawford was back to the player he was in Tampa Bay since he left for Boston and both his health and his production abruptly left him. However, this is the first time since I accepted that Crawford would never return to his former self that I questioned whether Crawford might still be as fast as he ever was.

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We know that fastball velocity tends to increase as the season progresses. We all generally panic in April when our favorite sleeper’s velocity is down a mile per hour from last year, but usually by the end of the month, his velocity has returned and you’re able to sleep well at night again. But when we see a downtrend in velocity during the season, it’s a troubling sign. And the velocity charts on these three pitchers are concerning.

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• The dreaded “closer in a non-save situation” …and Casey Janssen strikes out 2! The Blue Jays are only 4.5 games back from the Wild Card and Ryan Braun and Aramis Ramirez was up to start the inning so manager John Gibbons appropriately went all out. Janssen struck them both out, even though he only induced one whiff in seven swings total for the inning. Still, 12 of of his 15 pitches were thrown for strikes/fouls.
• “Put it in the (anxiety-inducing) Books” says (thinks) Howie Rose. With Jenrry Mejia unavailable due to his back and not his hernia supposedly, Jeurys Familia relieved Vic Black in the 8th after he loaded the bases. While he walked Sam Fuld forcing in run, he struck out Andy Parrino and got Josh Donaldson to ground out to shortstop. He got away with two things in the innings: the third strike to Parrino was a bit outside and the breaking ball on a full-count to Donaldson was a bit of a hanger although IMO it needed to be a breaking ball. At least it was thrown for a strike. A Stephen Vogt double after a Derek Norris strikeout in the 9th was the only other damage to give Familia the 5-out save. In any case, I think if he can continue to locate the fastball running outside on a lefty, he could be effective to all handedness. I’m a fan of the 3-pitch Fastball-Slider-Sinker repertoire that induces enough swinging strikes (12.4%) and ground balls (56%). We’re seeing it already in the outcomes and on the pitch level: According to Baseball Pro’s Pitchf/x Leaderboard, Familia has the 12th fasted RP velocity on the Fastball; 7th best whiff rate (51.43%) and 9th best GB/FB rate (3.2) on the slider; and 6th best whiff rate on the sinker (22.37%) which balances the fact that it only induces a 3.33 GB/FB ratio on it. If he can control the BB-rate, he should be successful and consume closing duties for at least the remainder of this year based on Mejia’s ailments. P.S. I’m a Mets fan so I apologies for the longevity associated with this run-on.
• Mark Melancon picks up the win (+1K) with a perfect inning in the top of the 9th vs. the Braves due to a Justin Upton error on a routine fly ball that allowed Jordy Mercer to score on a sac fly in the bottom of the 9th.
• Neftali Feliz hasn’t let up a run since August 3rd (only 6 appearances since). On this day, he had a 100% HR/FB ratio as Marcell Ozuna and Jarrod Saltalamachhia both went deep.
• A Bullpen Report where I don’t get to talk about Ken Giles or Brad Boxberger is a report I don’t enjoy writing nearly as much. Luckily, Ken Giles struck out Chris Denorfia, Logan Morrison and Dustin Ackley – all swinging in the 8th. To date, for relievers (200 pitches minimum), Giles has the 6th fastest FB velocity (97.72 MPH) with a top 15 whiff rate (26.7%). He also has a top 15 whiff rate on the slider (50.6%).
• The 8-9 punch of Darren O’Day and Zach Britton continues to ensure wins for the AL East leading O’s. O’Day strikes out both batters he faces and Britton strikes out 1 in a perfect 9th. O’Day threw 8/10 pitches for strikes: 4 whiffs, 3 looking, and only 1 time did the bat make (foul) contact with an O’Day offering. But Zach Britton! Whose ballsiest forecast had him at a 2.00 ERA and 30 saves?! a 77+% (77!!!) ground ball rate (11% flies and 12% liners) backs up the elite .222 BABIP right now. Nothing else on him screams elite, but the balls in play breakdown verifies the 2.04 ERA through a sub-2.00 SIERA.

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Drew Smyly and Bud Norris aren’t unknowns. But you may not realize that both have been among the elite performing starting pitchers over their last month or so. And yet Smyly is owned in about a third of Yahoo leagues while Norris sits at 14%. In ESPN, ownership rates appear to be about 50% for Smyly and 5% for Norris. So there’s a good chance that one or both of them are available at little to no cost. Should you find yourself behind in innings or you’re trying to eek out a spot-start win, keep these guys in mind.

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After being traded, changing leagues and posting his worst major league season of his career, a reasonable person may ask why on earth I’d be buying Allen Craig. His current .237/.291/.348 equates to a brutal 81 wRC+ and he’s still on the disabled list to boot. We can address the DL issue first, as the Boston Red Sox may activate him as soon as Friday. With that out of the way, on to the (potentially over the top) optimism!

The 30-year-old first baseman/outfielder’s rate stats are clearly way off, however many of his peripherals appear to be in line with his career averages.

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2B/SS/OF Mookie Betts, Boston Red Sox

Ownership: CBS 25% | Yahoo! 8% | ESPN 1.3%

The BoSox have called up Betts for the third time in 2014. This time, seriously, says the team’s official site, he’ll have a regular job. Apparently, a defined role wasn’t part of the deal the first time or two the club summoned their top-10 prospect.

OK, it’s a little less cynical than that. And there’s nothing in Betts’ major league, 52-plate appearance sample to suggest that the right-handed hitter won’t be as good as his minor league numbers seem to indicate. That .250/.294/.375 slash line shouldn’t discourage you. If anything, the swinging-strike rate (3.3%) and strikeout rate (11.5%) would be rather encouraging.

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This is the “who????” edition of the deep league waiver wire as I dig deep to uncover hidden gems that could contribute in your mono leagues. If you need speed, you have come to the right place.

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Episode 156

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is now live!

Eno Sarris and Nicholas Minnix discuss Byron Buxton; Jay Bruce; Josh Hamilton; Mookie Betts and Jackie Bradley Jr; Alex Rodriguez; Rusney Castillo; Mike Minor; Chris Capuano (by request); C.J. Wilson; and a rundown of injured players in the news.

As usual, don’t hesitate to tweet us or comment with fantasy questions so that we may answer them on our next episode.

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