After recording a 3.17 FIP and moving into the National League, all things were pointing up for Addison Reed following his trade to the Diamondbacks last winter. Unfortunately, not all worked as planned for Reed as he allowed 11 home runs, blew six saves, and recorded a 1-7 record with a 4.25 ERA.
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This past week, in the ottoneu Slack Community, (check this out if you are interested in joining, which you should be if you play ottoneu) there was a heated debate about paying for top RP, particularly in points leagues. One side was arguing that the elite RP put up a Pt/IP score that few other players can manage. That if you are willing to pay $35 more for Mike Trout than Ryan Braun (projected to have a 200 point gap between them), why not pay the same premium for Aroldis Chapman over a guy 200 points below him – Santiago Casilla?
The other side argued that spending $30+ on a relief pitcher would be crazy – there are always solid RP options on the wire, so why not just wait and see who will be the next Wade Davis?
Both sides are right.
This post continues our Depth Chart Discussions. In an effort to suss out every team, we’ve divided them into four parts (infield, outfield, rotation, and bullpen) and will continue to break them down for you over the next few weeks. You can find the Depth Chart Discussion posts gathered here.
The San Diego Padres’ bullpen lacks name brand appeal, but it’s glorious. Friars’ relievers ranked just 14th in WAR (3.4), but boasted exceptional ranks in other categories ranking tied for third in SIERA (3.07), third in WHIP (1.14), and second in K-BB% (16.4%) and FIP (3.09). Those numbers are partly inflated by the brilliant 33 innings thrown by former closer Huston Street, who was dealt in July, but even in his absence this is a fantastic group. Read the rest of this entry »
I expected to follow up my xK% differential post from last week with a complementary xBB% differential post. For those who don’t enjoy surprises, I’ll let you know now that that didn’t happen. In its stead, I bring what I hope is good news — news that will not only influence a future xBB% differential post but also may impact general pitcher analysis henceforth and possibly international diplomacy.
The title of this post, however, is a tad misleading. I think I can say, with some degree of certainty — and I hope to demonstrate, with some degree of competency — that pitch sequencing indeed plays a role in a pitcher’s walk rate, as the devilishly handsome Mike Podhorzer has postulated. What I can’t describe, with any degree of certainty, is the magnitude of the role it plays. In truth, I desperately want to prove Mike wrong: there must be other factors, outside of pitch sequencing (and pitch framing, perhaps), that help explain a pitcher’s walk rate. For example, I have tried incorporating O-Swing% and Zone%, two PITCHf/x metrics provided by FanGraphs that I swore would fill in the cracks, but they offer little in the way of additional explanatory power.
This post continues our Depth Chart Discussions. In an effort to suss out every team, we’ve divided them into four parts (infield, outfield, rotation, and bullpen) and will continue to break them down for you over the next few weeks. You can find the Depth Chart Discussion posts gathered here.
Despite lacking most of the elements classically associated with a sports dynasty, the Giants have been the most successful franchise in the last five years. Their specialized bullpen has played a big role in taking down powerhouses like the Phillies, Cardinals, Tigers, and Nationals. Surprisingly, there has been very little turnover in the unit.
It’s time for our Depth Chart Discussions. In an effort to suss out every team, we’ve divided them into four parts (infield, outfield, bullpen, and rotation) and will begin breaking them down for you over the next few weeks. You can find them gathered here.
As Aroldis Chapman inches closer to free agency, decision makers in Cincinnati must be getting uncomfortable. Chapman is signed through 2016. Should he remain healthy over the next two seasons, he will sign a record breaking contract for a reliever. Since they’re unlikely to re-sign him, there will be increasing pressure to trade him while his value is highest.
The scariest part is the state of the Reds bullpen – they have no obvious alternative to Chapman. Cincinnati is lucky. We live in an era where at least 75 pitchers meet the basic requirements of a closer (and that excludes non-major league talent). Replacing Chapman is next to impossible, but finding a viable closer is easy.
I’d like to talk to you about Dellin Betances.
Wait! Wait. No. No, I wouldn’t. I’d like to talk about Mike Podhorzer first. Mike has published a lot of great work covering the fundamentals of the xK% (and xBB%) metric for pitchers (and hitters), so if you are unfamiliar with or falling behind on his work, I recommend you first click here, here or here. But if you’re lazy, the short of it is: xK%, or expected strikeout rate, is an equation birthed from a linear regression that measures how a pitcher’s looking, swinging and foul-ball strike rates as well as overall strike percentage correlates with his strikeout rate. It doesn’t predict future strikeout rates as much as it retrospectively adjusts past strikeout rates; thus, it is a good tool for identifying pitchers who potentially benefited (or suffered) from good (bad) luck in a previous season – say, 2014.
Like many other metrics completely unrelated to xK%, however, there is evidence that certain players consistently out-perform (or under-perform) what their xK% rates predict their actual K% rates should be. (Mike alludes to this trend in his quip about Jeremy Hellickson, a xK% underachiever, in one of the articles linked above.) Similarly to how a power hitter will post consistently higher ratios of home runs to fly balls (HR/FB) than a non-power hitter, or how Mike Trout will probably post some of the highest batting averages on balls in play (babip) in the league for years to come, it appears there is some skill, or perhaps a particular characteristic, inherent to pitchers who consistently best, or fall short of, their xK% rates.
It’s time for our Depth Chart Discussions to begin. In an effort to suss out every team, we’ve divided them into four parts (infield, outfield, bullpen, and rotation) and will begin breaking them down for you over the next few weeks. You can find them gathered here.
The Cubs entered the 2014 season without a bonafide closer, but they did a great job piecing together the puzzle. Hector Rondon received his first shot in the ninth inning on April 11 and began regularly saving games starting in May. Surprisingly, Chicago was able to develop a number of relievers to the point where they could be viable firemen. The bullpen should be a strength for the club as they try to turn the corner.
The Atlanta Braves can say they have one dominant bullpen arm in Craig Kimbrel. Beyond that, and this year’s squad is a bit more iffy. Last season the Braves pen was middle of the road with a combined 3.8 WAR, but when accounting for their second lowest in baseball mark of just 440.2 innings pitched, the ratio shows how well the staff pitched. Looking to this season, the fantasy options are more limited with the departures of David Carpenter, Jordan Walden and Anthony Varvaro, last year’s top three holds leaders in Atlanta. After Kimbrel the value drops off considerably, but there are other mildly interesting options to be had.
Closer
Craig Kimbrel
Setup
Jason Grilli
Jim Johnson
In the Mix
Josh Outman
James Russell
Luis Avilan
Jose Veras
Also Rans
Juan Jaime
Arodys Vizcaino
Closer
It’s hard to overstate just how good Craig Kimbrel has been for his career. His ups-and-downs have consisted of a seasonal worst 2.48 FIP in his rookie season where he threw all of 20.2 innings. Sure, Kimbrel was a bit fortunate with a .235 BABIP and 0.29 HR/9 rate last year, just know that his 1.61 ERA and 1.94 SIERA were no flukes compared to his other seasons. If Kimbrel is your first pitcher — not just reliever — drafted and it happens in the fourth round, you can do just fine. Read the rest of this entry »
On Friday I wrote the following on Kyle Gibson in my Quick Looks piece:
He increased his Zone% a bit from 2013 t0 2014 (41.9% to 43.6%) and saw his K% increase (12.2% to 14.1%) and BB% drop (8.4% to 7.5%).
While, it may seem intuitive that throwing strikes leads to better strikeout and walk rates, I have never seen it tested. I will remedy this issue right now.