Handcuffing Addison Reed with Evan Marshall
After recording a 3.17 FIP and moving into the National League, all things were pointing up for Addison Reed following his trade to the Diamondbacks last winter. Unfortunately, not all worked as planned for Reed as he allowed 11 home runs, blew six saves, and recorded a 1-7 record with a 4.25 ERA.
Reed will enter this year as the incumbent closer, but his current shoulder injury has his new manager Chip Hale stating that there is a possibility that Reed begins the season on the disabled list. If he does end up on the DL, or if you end up with Reed as one of your closers on your fantasy roster, handcuffing him with Evan Marshall seems to be a good idea.
The soon to be 25-year-old Marshall had a solid year last year in 57 games. He struck out 54 batters in 49.1 innings and had a 17.6% strikeout minus walk rate. He also added on 16.2 dominant triple-A innings in which he recorded a 0.54 ERA. The big difference with Marshall last year was gaining more command and feel for his 94-mile-per hour fastball and secondary pitches. Throwing both a changeup and a slider as a late inning reliever, one would hope that would mean he is as effective against lefties as he is against righties.
The big worry for Marshall is his performance against lefties, who hit a robust .292/.367/.414 against him last season. While he stymied righties, the Diamondbacks noticed his struggles and limited his opportunities against lefties this year. It is possible that this is a long term issue, but having faced just 80 lefties in the majors last season, I am not quite ready to label him a ROOGY permanently.
With Reed’s struggles and current shoulder injury and both Brad Ziegler and David Hernandez recovering from their own injuries, it looks like Marshall would be the first guy to get an opportunity should Reed begin the year on the disabled list. The value in closers is having a choke hold lock on the role, and Reed – with a new manager, an injury, and a bad year last year – does not quite have that. If I were a betting man I would bank on Reed being removed from the role. Marshall will have to prove himself in spring training and in any closing opportunities he gets if Reed does miss time, but Marshall is looking like one of the most likely set up men to get a closing shot early on this season.
Ben has been at RotoGraphs since 2012 and focuses most of his fantasy baseball attention toward dynasty and keeper leagues.
Thanks for this. I think this is one of the murkiest bullpens in baseball, only muddled by the presence of what should be a “safe” closer. I still think Ziegler gets the nod if healthy opening day.
Thanks for the info Jeff.
What’s the situation in Houston? Do you think Qualls holds his job, will Gregerson get some saves or will it be a closer by committee situation?
Am I missing something or did Ben Duronio write this piece? I’m not a robot I swear…or am I?
Yeah, thanks Jeff
Yeah, sometimes you see what you think you see. Combination of sleeplessness and nerve pain meds doesn’t help much either.
So, we are assuming Dave Stewart is too dumb to see a career best K rate, BB rate, and xFIP in 2014? He’s a flyball guy in a HR park, he is going to occasionally have an bad HR rate season. I think Reed is pretty underrated.
thanks for the article, BEN.
I usually hold off drafting the weaker closers, mid-tier guys and iffy ones like Reed/Qualls.
It might be a good idea to draft the 8th and 7th inning guys with closers like these too.
Not a bad idea. In one 12 team 15 keeper league, the prices for closers was so high I decided to pass and go with guys like Clippard, Soria and Boxberger.
Each one has a chance to become the closer and for now, with injuries to Doolittle and McGee, two of them apparently have the jobs—if only temporarily.