Cubs Bullpen: Surprising Depths

It’s time for our Depth Chart Discussions to begin. In an effort to suss out every team, we’ve divided them into four parts (infield, outfield, bullpen, and rotation) and will begin breaking them down for you over the next few weeks. You can find them gathered here.

The Cubs entered the 2014 season without a bonafide closer, but they did a great job piecing together the puzzle. Hector Rondon received his first shot in the ninth inning on April 11 and began regularly saving games starting in May. Surprisingly, Chicago was able to develop a number of relievers to the point where they could be viable firemen. The bullpen should be a strength for the club as they try to turn the corner.

Top Dogs

Hector Rondon
Pedro Strop
Neil Ramirez

Rondon is the closer after a successful 2014 campaign, but this trio has a lot in common. I’m convinced any of them could close games. Fellow RotoGraphist August Fagerstrom seemingly agrees. He recently wrote about their surprising dominance.

Prior to 2013, Rondon struggled to stay on the field. This contributed to the feeling that he came out of nowhere. He struck out about a batter per inning while limiting walks. He’s another year removed from his lost 2010 to 2012 seasons, which could mean there’s more ceiling to scrape. In particular, his stuff seems good enough to support a higher strikeout rate.

Strop is a ground ball pitcher with a 95 mph heater and potent slider. He’s possessed this skill set for years, although 2014 was the first time he really shined. He’s posted good ERAs before on the strength of his imposing stuff, but his peripherals always hinted at bad things to come. He reined in the walk rate last season and buffed his whiff rate. If he picks up where he left off, he could become one of the most feared pitchers in the league.

Ramirez might be the guy I like the most. Acquired in the Matt Garza trade, the righty leans on a 95 mph fastball with a slider and curve. He skewed heavily towards fly balls last season, and we should expect the same in 2015. As August uncovered, Ramirez’s fastball has similar vertical rise* to that of Sean Doolittle. A right-handed Doolittle with more offspeed weapons? Yes please.

*The pitch doesn’t actually rise, it appears to rise.

Mix and Match

Jason Motte
Justin Grimm
Blake Parker
Zac Rosscup

There are more questions after the big three. Motte was briefly a stud closer for the Cardinals. After he lost his 2013 season to injury, he came back looking rusty last year. He mixes a fastball with a baby slider/cutter. It would be helpful if he could recover the velocity he lost between 2012 and 2014.

In my estimation, Grimm has the firmest grip on a bullpen job. The former Rangers spot starter performed ably in 73 relief appearances. His fastball velocity increased over two mph out of the bullpen, and his swinging strike rate jumped three percent. Lo and behold, his strikeout rate also surged forward to 9.13 K/9. He ditched his changeup and increased his slider usage as a reliever. The adjustment appears to have served him well. Other clubs might look at Grimm as a setup man, but he’s number four in the Cubs pen.

Parker is a bit of a mystery. His 2014 season included excellent strikeout and walk ratios, yet he struggled to a 5.14 ERA. He was a contender for the closer’s role last spring, but fell out of the mix early. His stuff, including a 90 mph fastball, is better suited to middle relief.

Rosscup is another fly ball pitcher. The southpaw has shown a huge platoon split in a teeny tiny sample. Like Ramirez and Doolittle, he has a good rising fastball. His velocity doesn’t quite match those comps, and he’s struggled mightily with walks. He’ll probably open the season in the minors, but we’ll see him at some point in 2015.

Long Dudes

Tsuyoshi Wada
Felix Doubront
Jacob Turner
Edwin Jackson

One of the most notable trends of the 2015 offseason is the league wide search for rotation depth. The Cubs have built a unit that extends nine starters deep. Unfortunately for those listed above, it looks like they’ll have to hope for an injury AND out-pitch their fellows if they want regular starts.

As far as I’m aware, none of the players listed can be optioned. The club probably can’t roster more than two of them in the bullpen. Wada has the best recent results as a starter, making him the most likely to oust Travis Wood or Kyle Hendricks from the rotation. The 34-year-old lefty mixes a 89 mph fastball with three other pitches. He doesn’t profile as a reliever.

Doubront, another lefty, should probably join a bullpen on a permanent basis. He’s started in parts of five major league seasons, but his results have always lagged behind him peripherals. His velocity has declined in recent seasons. It’s time to find out if his stuff can play up in short burst relief.

Jackson is another guy whose results are worse than his peripherals. By all accounts, he should succeed as a starter. He has a deep repertoire and healthy whiff rate. His BABIP and LOB% have plagued him since joining the Cubs. Given his contract, he’s another candidate to beat out Wood or Hendricks as a starter. I think a trade is more likely than a bullpen role in Chicago.

Turner was an interesting acquisition for the Cubs as a reclamation project. Will there be an opportunity for him? It seems like he’s been around forever, but he’ll only turn 24 in May. He has all the elements of a successful starter, he just has to piece it all together. Many assumed the Cubs would be the team to open the door, but now he’s buried on the depth chart.