Darren rounded up last night’s closer news this morning, I’ll just hit up on what we have seen so far today.

• LaTroy Hawkins‘ recent implosions has led to his removal from the ninth inning in Colorado. According to Walt Weiss, Hawkins is getting a “break” but the feeling here is that it will be an extended one. It’s rare that struggling 42 year old relievers on bad teams lose their job to more talented relievers and get it back. If you’re in a deep, deep league I guess you can hold onto Hawkins, but I think it’s safe to give him the axe.

Adam Ottavino was long expected to fill in for Hawkins at some point this year but it looks as though Rafael Betancourt could have the closing duties for now. Betancourt received the save opportunity today and nailed it, throwing a perfect inning with two strikeouts in 16 pitches. Adam Ottavino was unavailable to pitch, and is the best reliever in the pen, but after Betancourt’s outing, he should get another chance. This one might be a coin toss with a slight lean towards Betancourt getting the next few opportunities, but both are must owns in all leagues.

Read the rest of this entry »

Neftali Feliz and LaTroy Hawkins both picked up their first saves of the season last night. Per ESPN’s live draft results, Feliz was drafted as the 25th reliever off the board on average and just inside the top 200 overall. Hawkins was drafted 38th among relievers and went at pick 226 overall. These are a couple of the names you wound up with if you chose not to pay for saves.

Maybe I’m wrong about this, but I assume the plan if you own guys like Feliz and Hawkins is to ride them out as long as they hold on to the closer’s job and squeeze as many saves out of them as you can. I ascribe to the “don’t pay for saves” philosophy and scrounge around late in drafts and on the waiver wire to acquire my saves. Typically when I get a guy who has the ninth inning job, I ride it out until he loses the job. But it occurs to me, as it may have occurred to you, that maybe it’s better to cash in that asset after a string of un-blown saves. Read the rest of this entry »

There isn’t any particularly breaking news today, but a few important updates on some previous bullet points discussed yesterday.

• Jenrry Mejia had a MRI today and although there was no structural damage, Mejia was placed on the DL with elbow inflammation. Jeurys Familia is the new closer and although a healthy Mejia is the better pitcher, there isn’t a particularly big difference so if Mejia is out for an extended period of time, Familia can hold onto the job. If he falters Carlos Torres and Rafael Montero are right behind him. Mejia can’t throw for at least the next 10 days after which he might feel no pain and be back in the ninth inning before we know it, but it’s still an unknown.

Read the rest of this entry »

Opening Day is here and the closer carousel is in full swing.

• Colin touched up on the Craig Kimbrel trade fall out last night and as expected Jason Grilli was tabbed as Kimbrel’s replacement. Grilli threw a perfect inning today with two strikeouts for his first save of the year. Grilli’s fastball topped out at 97 mph today and he was consistently hitting 95 mph which is actually better than in his heyday as the Pirates closer. The options behind Grilli aren’t too appealing so if Grilli pitches reasonably well he should have no problem holding on to the job. Strangely enough, in some sense the better Grilli pitches the worse his job security would be as he would become an intriguing trade commodity for competing teams considering the Braves have clearly played their hand on not competing this season. Either way, I would advise you to run to the waivers to put a claim on Grilli and don’t be afraid to spend a lot of your FAAB budget on him as well.

Read the rest of this entry »

It’s still March and the season has yet to start but that doesn’t mean the closer carousel isn’t in full swing. From here on out, as teams whittle down their major league rosters and we get more information on bullpen usage, we will be updating the BR regularly.

• Red Sox closer Koji Uehara has been on the shelf with a hamstring injury lately and it acted up again in a bullpen session Monday. While Uehara’s injury isn’t major, he’s still 39 years old without a clean medical bill. Uehara won’t be out for too long but it’s important to note Uehara said “I don’t know when I’ll be back […] It’s a day-to-day process. I have to do what I have to do to get ready.”  In Uehara’s place, expect Edward Mujica to take over the ninth with a little Junichi Tazawa thrown in. Mujica should now be owned in all leagues, even shallow ones. He can’t be relied upon for particularly strong ratio help or strikeouts, but saves are saves and Mujica will be tallying them in the first month of the season.

Read the rest of this entry »

It’s my favorite time of the year here at RotoGraphs, the season of bold predictions. (My least favorite time, naturally, is late September, when I have to atone for these forecasts.) As usual, the trick here is to balance imagination against reality, the impossible versus the attainable, the speculative against the demonstrable. It’s a tough task that, for me, often results in happy predictions, but then again, it’s March — ’tis the season to indulge in some fantasy baseball fantasies, right?
Read the rest of this entry »

This post continues our Depth Chart Discussions. In an effort to suss out every team, we’ve divided them into four parts (infield, outfield, bullpen, and rotation) and will continue to break them down for you over the next few weeks. You can find the Depth Chart Discussion posts gathered here.

The Blue Jays bullpen was already in a state of murkiness before the injury to Marcus Stroman cost them Aaron Sanchez earlier this month, and the team’s closer to start the season has all of six career saves to his name. Overall, Toronto’s relief corps posted the fifth-highest FIP last year, though its unheralded leader could have some sleeper potential as a late-round bargain pickup.
Read the rest of this entry »

In our ceaseless pursuit of Fantasy bargains, we now consider the Cincinnati Reds—or, as one of us will go to his grave calling them, the Cincinnati Redlegs. (This was actually the team’s name from 1954 through 1959, presumably in order to avoid confusion with the crosstown Cincinnati Communists of the Internationale League.)

But we divagate. The Reds in 2014 lost 38 one-run games, the most in a single season by any team in this century. Their record in such games was 22-38, which is likewise abysmal. You’d figure that such a team would have a weak bullpen, and the Reds sure did. They had the fourth worst bullpen ERA in the majors, and no other team was even close to the bullpen’s 11-31 won-lost record. You might also expect that such a team would have a weak closer, but the Reds didn’t. In fact, as you no doubt know, Aroldis Chapman is perhaps the best closer in baseball, and finished second last season in percentage of saves converted. Moreover, Jonathan Broxton, his replacement for the first month or so of the season, converted five out of his six save opportunities.

No, it was the rest of the bullpen—including Broxton, once he became the set-up guy after Chapman returned—that sank the Reds. Chapman, you see, was used almost exclusively (1) in the 9th inning with (2) either the score tied or the Reds holding a narrow lead. If the Reds, courtesy of the bullpen, couldn’t get to the 9th, Chapman wasn’t a factor. Likewise Broxton, in his capacity as closer. Read the rest of this entry »

A couple of Quick Look changes for Spring Training. I am going to be doing more players, but with less information. Some pitchers I watch will only throw an inning or two. Also, some broadcasts don’t have radar readings. Finally, the camera angles are horrible to be kind.

Another change I will be implementing is grading the players on the scouting scales of 20-80. I will Kiley McDaniels scale he discussed in this article.

I will give a value for where I think the pitcher could currently fit in on the average team (CV=current value) and where they could end up (FV=future). I am sure I will disagree with some grades from others, but I am only looking at one game.

Note: If I say a pitch moves 11-5, it is from the pitcher’s perspective.

3/8/15 Padres vs Rockies (no velocities)

Tyson Ross (60+ CV/65 FV)

• He was the reason I picked this game. He has talked of the expanded the role of his change-up.
• He throws very over the top.
• His fastball was had some downward motion.
• His slider had a sharp 12-6 down breaking action.
• Now to the change. It looked to be same speed (I checked previous speeds and it was the same) and broke the direction as his slider. The break was less and not as sharp. It was basically his slider, but worse. I can see why he hasn’t used it.
• I wonder if he could add a cutter to give himself a third pitch.

Read the rest of this entry »

Using elite, non-closing relievers was probably the first fantasy specialty I developed. In the good ol’ days, an astute owner could gain a substantial advantage by using Sergio Romo and Mike Adams. The emergence of a thousand elite relievers has put the strategy on the map. Everybody is doing it, and the sheer quantity of substitutes strips away the advantages.

If we want to stay ahead of the competition, we have to take it another step. One of my favorite fantasy tactics is to use relievers in a SP slot. Relievers post better ratios than starters, and their wins per inning are usually comparable to waiver wire starters.

Read the rest of this entry »