Scott’s Miscellany – Fast Fastball and RISP Leaderboards

The title of the article is an allusion to Schott’s Miscellany, which you should definitely check out if you never have and feel compelled to know that a group of larks is called an exaltation or that a member of the 32nd degree of Freemasonry is known as a Sublime Prince of the Royal Secret.

–Fast Fastballs—

In deeper formats like Ottoneu where setup men can still be usable, I like to take early looks at which relievers are throwing hard each season. Every now and then, those relievers turn out to be Tom Wilhelmsen or Dellin Betances, and you can end up with an elite closer for no cost other than a used roster spot for a month or two. Here are the relievers with one or fewer saves and two or more innings so far this season:

Highest Average Fastball Velocity, 2015 Relievers with < 2 Saves and 2+ Innings Pitched
Pitcher	Team	FBv	K/9	BB/9
Arquimedes Caminero	Pirates	99.0	7.71	3.86
Kelvin Herrera	Royals	97.5	9.00	0.00
Blake Treinen	Nationals	96.6	3.86	0.00
Jake Diekman	Phillies	96.1	12.27	9.82
Pedro Baez	Dodgers	96.1	13.50	2.25
Adam Ottavino	Rockies	96.0	16.88	1.69
Kevin Gausman	Orioles	96.0	8.31	8.31
Jumbo Diaz	Reds	95.8	8.31	4.15
Austin Adams	Indians	95.8	1.93	3.86
Chris Hatcher	Dodgers	95.6	13.50	3.38
Bryan Morris	Marlins	95.5	9.00	5.40
Juan Nicasio	Dodgers	95.4	13.50	5.79
Roberto Osuna	Blue Jays	95.2	12.60	3.60
Tommy Hunter	Orioles	95.1	6.75	3.38
Wade Davis	Royals	95.1	11.25	2.25

Arquimedes Caminero has been routinely hitting 100 mph, well up from his Marlins days when he lived more in the mid-90s. It’s hard not to be intrigued, especially on the Pirates with Mark Melancon showing a drop in his velocity. I think Camerino would be next up for saves for the team if Melancon needed a DL trip or was simply ineffective.

Adam Ottavino already seized the Rockies closer job, but he clearly has the stuff to keep it. If he’s still available in your league, pick him up. My early-season sleeper for saves on the Dodgers, Chris Hatcher, has several hard-throwing Dodgers to contend with in Pedro Baez and Juan Nicasio. Kenley Jansen looms, which means it may not even be worth the trouble. At this point, Nicasio seems the most intriguing.

Miguel Castro is not the only intriguing rookie arm in the Blue Jays’ bullpen. Roberto Osuna has been throwing just as hard, and while their bullpen remains unsettled, Osuna may be worth a stash, as well. He struck out 10 or more batters per nine even as a starter in each of his last five stops in the (lower) minors.

 

–Runners in Scoring Position–

FanGraphs readers are well-versed in the effects of BABIP on batting averages, and it seems to me the same line of reasoning should apply to RBI. The real driver of RBI is the number of opportunities to drive in runs. So far this season, the RBI leaders have some pretty substantial differences in their opportunities, which I’m measuring as the total runners in scoring position during their plate appearances.

RBI Leaders, 2015
Batter	PA	RBI	RISP	RBI/RISP
Adam Jones	32	11	10	1.10
Corey Dickerson	34	10	16	0.63
J.D. Martinez	36	9	15	0.60
Todd Frazier	36	9	15	0.60
Miguel Cabrera	38	9	15	0.60
Joey Votto	37	9	14	0.64
Salvador Perez	30	9	12	0.75
Ian Kinsler	39	8	20	0.40
Lorenzo Cain	34	8	18	0.44
Mookie Betts	39	8	16	0.50
Alex Rios	29	8	12	0.67
Nelson Cruz	34	8	8	1.00
Adrian Gonzalez	37	8	6	1.33

The list is bookended by the current home run leaders, so I suppose it’s not a perfect analogy. But it is interesting to note that Ian Kinsler and Lorenzo Cain have plated a more sustainable number of their runners in scoring position as compared to the other leaders. Both players are hitting around .400, so they’ll fall back to earth in other respects, but Kinsler at least should continue to see a ton of opportunities on the loaded Tigers’ offense.

It’s probably more instructive to view this from the opposite perspective. Here are the leaders in number of RBI opportunities this season.

Hitters with the Most RISP, 2015
Batter	PA	RBI	RISP	RBI/RISP
Marcus Semien	37	7	25	0.28
Ian Kinsler	39	8	20	0.40
Eric Hosmer	34	7	19	0.37
Lorenzo Cain	34	8	18	0.44
Billy Butler	38	6	17	0.35
Buster Posey	35	4	17	0.24
Nick Castellanos	36	3	17	0.18
Brett Lawrie	39	2	17	0.12
Leonys Martin	41	2	17	0.12
Christian Bethancourt	20	0	16	0.00
Mookie Betts	39	8	16	0.50
Michael Morse	33	5	16	0.31
Victor Martinez	29	3	16	0.19
Justin Upton	38	6	16	0.38
Corey Dickerson	34	10	16	0.63

Kinsler is joined by two teammates, Nick Castellanos and Victor Martinez, and Cain actually has one fewer opportunity that fellow-Royal Eric Hosmer. Since both the Tigers and Royals started the season with crazy winning streaks, that didn’t surprise me. I was surprised by several Athletics making the list. But to date, the A’s own the fourth-best offense in baseball. Still, Marcus Semien has hit exclusively in the eight and nine holes and Brett Lawrie in the seventh and eight holes. Ike Davis and Stephen Vogt will not continue to reach base at a .400 clip.