I like a lot of pitchers who have unperformed this year. With strikeout and walk rates (K%, BB%) of 20.5 percent and 7.0 percent, respectively, Drew Hutchison delivers everything I want from a mid-rotation fantasy starter. With a 5.19 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP, however, he delivers a flaming bag of feces to my doorstep.

The same can be said for Taijuan Walker who, after a terribly rough start to the season, dazzled for seven straight starts before recently tossing three stinkers. With plate discipline ratios better than Hutchison’s and just 22 years old, Walker demonstrates the skill set and ceiling that have earned him consensus top-20 honors on prospect lists from 2012 through 2014. Yet his 5.06 ERA and 1.29 WHIP have left fantasy owners not only disappointed but also reeling.

Hutchison and Walker share a common trait: their ERAs dwarf their fielding independent pitching (FIP) statistics. FIP was designed to demonstrate a pitcher’s true performance in light of the events he can control — that is, events independent of balls put into play at the mercy of the defense supporting him (among other things).

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• Jonathan Papelbon closed out a rare Phillies win for his 16th save of the season tonight against the Rays. With Ken Giles throwing in the previous two games, the Phillies went  Jake Diekman –> Luis Garcia –> Jeanmar Gomez for the bridge to Papelbon. However if/when Papelbon is traded, Ken Giles is ready to become the closer. There are no strong trade rumors at the moment and the deadline is approaching, but I’d still expect Papelbon to change teams. He’s not particularly cheap next year but it’s not a long term commitment and he’s proving to still be quite effective pitching to a 1.72/2.95/3.18 ERA/FIP/xFIP line. Throw in the fact that he’s vocally expressed a preference to change teams and I would be a bit optimistic if I were a Giles owner.

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• No save situation for the Cubs this afternoon, but they had to bring in their closer Jason Motte to get the last two outs of the game. Every day that goes by seems to cement Motte’s role in the ninth. The Cubs bullpen use could be Maddon-ing to Hector Rondon owners, but moving forward expecting Motte to receive the lion’s share of saves.

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One upshot of the strikeout-heavy environment we currently have in the MLB is the rise of middle relievers. Usually you have to be logging or close to logging saves to get a sniff on the fantasy landscape, especially in mixed leagues, but elite-level setup men are starting to make a dent even without proximity to saves. Holds have become more prevalent in leagues which automatically gives them some enhanced value, but even if we are just talking a standard 5×5 league with 10-12 teams, there are some RPs who are too good sit on the wire.

Last year we saw Dellin Betances and Wade Davis develop into must-own players despite a whopping four saves between them. Betances was New York’s super-reliever setting up David Robertson, logging 90 innings in just 70 appearances with a 1.40 ERA and 0.78 WHIP plus an eye-popping 135 strikeouts. Davis tried starting his first year in KC and it just wasn’t working. He’d failed at starting with TB, too, spent his final season with the Rays in the bullpen (70 IP of 2.43 ERA). He dwarfed those figures in 2014: 1.00 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, and 109 strikeouts in 72 IP not to mention nine vulture wins and three of those aforementioned four saves.

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A slow news day for the bullpens which is probably similar to everyone’s production at work after a holiday weekend…

• Rafael Soriano was moved to Double-A today and he was impressive in his first outing, striking out three batters on 16 pitches for the Smokies. With a few more appearances in the minors, Soriano could be in Chicago after the All-Star break.  However, rather than firm up any of the bullpen roles, Soriano’s addition is only adding to the confusion. He will help the bullpen’s depth and Maddon has seen Soriano close out games first hand on the Rays, but for now Jason Motte is getting the saves. The Motte bar isn’t a tough bar to clear necessarily but he also has Hector Rondon, Pedro Strop and possibly even more outside help. The latest Cubs rumors involve starting pitching and an OF bat so I think whoever will get saves moving forward is currently on the roster.

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A few bullpen notes as we leave the month of June and officially enter the trade deadline season…

• The Cubs are making me bite my tongue a bit as Jason Motte was called on for the save again, converting his third of the season. Hector Rondon entered the game in the seventh, throwing a perfect inning himself with Pedro Strop also perfect in the eighth. Stubbornly, I’ll still call Rondon the best reliever in their pen but since it’s been almost two weeks since he’s received a save opportunity, it looks like Motte leapfrogged him in the pecking order. To make matters even more confusing, the Cubs could still look outside the organization for more relief options, not to mention Rafael Soriano working his way into form in the minors. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Rondon back in the chair but I’d go Motte then Rondon for now.

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• Koji Uehara entered ninth in a 3-1 game tonight, and closed the door against the Blue Jays for his 17th save. Uehara has had a few hiccups this season but he’s still putting in a fine year with a 3.00/2.50/3.45 ERA/FIP/xFIP line in 27 innings pitched. In spite of his advanced age and a 86.9 mph fastball, Uehara still gets well tons of swinging strikes (18.7%) to get over a strikeout per inning (10.00 K/9). He’s not quite the top tier of closer any more but expect him to continue to put up good numbers and saves for the Red Sox. It’s expected that the Sox could be sellers at the deadline, but there are no imminent deals lined up and trading the contracts of Pablo Sandoval and/or Hanley Ramirez could prove problematic. Uehara would be a nice addition to any bullpen and it wouldn’t shock me to see him moved even though he’s still owed $9 million next season. This trade might not be as likely as Jonathan Papelbon (who also has an expensive contract in 2016) changing teams but keep an eye on the rumors.

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Many a fantasy article has pointed out that opportunity is a major factor in a player’s fantasy value, sometimes moreso than their actual talent level. I would argue this applies more to fantasy football than it does to fantasy baseball. In fantasy football, one guy for each team throws passes. One guy generally gets the bulk of the rushing attempts. Simply being in that role will allow a player to accumulate fantasy points and thus have value, even though that player might not actually be that good. Read the rest of this entry »

• There is no word on who the next closer in Toronto will be as a save situation did not present itself tonight but we do know that Brett Cecil is officially out. Steve Delabar entered the game in the ninth inning down by a run. He proceeded to allow a homer to Asdrubal Cabrera and a walk to Brandon Guyer but then retired the next three batters. Tonight’s outing likely won’t play a role in Delabar’s role in the pen and although there might be a current committee in Toronto without a closer announced, I’m still buying more stock in Roberto Osuna.

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• After losing the closing gig earlier this year, we figured that Addison Reed could have regained his role with improved performance in lower leverage innings. However, since then he’s only struggled and has now been demoted to AAA. It stands that Reed could theoretically still regain his familiar role in the ninth, but he’s far off the radar as of now. With Reed’s demotion comes Enrique Burgos‘ return from the 15-day DL. Burgos has nasty stuff, generating tons of strikeouts and is in someways the antithesis of current closer Brad Ziegler who has a paltry 4.50 K/9. Ziegler is converting the opportunities he’s given though, and his grasp on the job is fairly secure. Once Burgos gets a few innings under his belt, he could leapfrog Dan Hudson in the pecking order.

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