Bullpen Report: June 30, 2015
A few bullpen notes as we leave the month of June and officially enter the trade deadline season…
• The Cubs are making me bite my tongue a bit as Jason Motte was called on for the save again, converting his third of the season. Hector Rondon entered the game in the seventh, throwing a perfect inning himself with Pedro Strop also perfect in the eighth. Stubbornly, I’ll still call Rondon the best reliever in their pen but since it’s been almost two weeks since he’s received a save opportunity, it looks like Motte leapfrogged him in the pecking order. To make matters even more confusing, the Cubs could still look outside the organization for more relief options, not to mention Rafael Soriano working his way into form in the minors. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Rondon back in the chair but I’d go Motte then Rondon for now.
• A.J. Ramos threw a perfect ninth for his 11th save, lowering his ERA to 1.26. Ramos’ name isn’t often thrown in with the elites, but he’s been nothing but since he took over closing duties for the fish. And with all that said, he might not even be the best pitcher in the bullpen. Carter Capps threw a perfect inning himself with three strikeouts. Capps now has an ERA, FIP and xFIP all under 1.00 with 38 strikeouts in 20.2 innings against only four walks. He won’t touch saves with Ramos (and even Cishek) aboard, but you won’t find a better non-closing option than Capps.
• Quick Hits: Koji Uehara nailed down his 18th save for the Sox, but after pitching three days in a row, he won’t be available tomorrow. Look for Junichi Tazawa to possibly receive an opportunity if a save situation arises. Shawn Tolleson allowed a run but still recorded his 11th save for the Rangers. Joakim Soria has been shaky of late, so it’s concerning to see him allow a hit and a walk but also very encouraging to see him strike out the side. He threw in the ninth, but it wasn’t a save situation.
Closer Grid:
[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]
When he's not focusing on every team's bullpen situation, Ben can be found blogging at Ben's Baseball Bias and on Twitter @BensBias
Any preference between Motte and Osuna? Both appear to tenuously hold the job, but in the short term who is the better guy to own?
Delabar pitched in the 9th with the team behind today, so Osuna seems to have a hold on the job. But the Jays’ offense seems to crush opponents or not work at all, leaving few save opportunities. Maybe that’s just SSS luck.
Motte seems to have it now, but could be traded and end up the setup guy… Or his arm may prevent him from pitching on consecutive days.
If you owned them both and had to drop one, I think you would drop Motte, right ? I know I would. Osuna is awesome, and has clear shot at the role. And won’t be traded… But could be supplanted if they trade for a closer. I think the Blue Jays will go for another starter, and cross their fingers that Osuna will get the job done.
Osuna has far more upside than Motte, I’d stick with Osuna.
Osuna is far more talented, and he has been put in some really high leverage situations. If they didn’t get Papelbon or K-rod I could see Osuna being real valuable ROS.
I’d go Osuna. In theory both teams could pick up veteran closers but Osuna is far better pitcher than Motte I believe.
When I look at anything the Cubs do, I ask myself, is Epstein going for it this year, or is he still building? I think they are still building. Making the playoffs this year would be good experience and a bonus, but next year and after that, I think that is their goal.
With that in mind, making Motte your closer now gives you a deadline trading chip that doesn’t hurt your future. Strop and Rondon are both potential closers whose value is enhanced by keeping their compensation down in the near future, not because the Cubs can’t afford them (puh-lease!) but because a future trading partner will value them more if they are cheap.
And after all, Motte is not the future of the Cubs, so why not get what you can for him now? And look at Motte’s contract compared to Papelbon or KRod; who would you rather have? Plus Motte’s resume is beyond reproach.
If his arm holds up (the up&expensive velo make me nervous), I expect Motte to close for the Cubs until he gets traded. And I expect Rondon’s chances will be limited from here on out whether Motte is there or not.
I am not sure why the love affair with Rondon? Within the SSS, it seems to me that in true talent, they are really interchangeable. I just believe Motte’s your guy because I think that is what Epstein wants.
Can you be sure the Epstein is pulling Maddon’s strings in terms of who Maddon picks as closer though? Seems like he’d let Maddon choose his own closer.
So, you think it was Maddon who sent Bryant to the minors after spring training?
I’m sure Maddon was fine with having Bryant down for 15 days or whatever it was in order to give him another year of team control. Are you saying keeping Bryant down temporarily is the same as deciding who closes games?
Keeping Bryant down for 15 days could have cost them a game in the standings. Usng any of the 3 Cubs closers should really make no difference in the standings. I think the Bryant decision is the bigger one.
There is realistically little chance that Maddon is still the manager when Bryant is in his last year of free agency. If Maddon is calling the shots, no way Bryant goes down.
This is Epstein’s team, IMHO; he was here first. He doesn’t even hire Maddon unless there is an understanding of who is in charge, I believe. I see no evidence of activities to favour short-term gain.
15 days of Bryant is worth roughly 1 fWAR? Well, he’s been up for about 11 weeks now and has accumulated 2.9 fWAR, so I don’t think that math checks out. I think we can safely say that RP’s don’t contribute a ton over the course of the season because they pitch so few innings, but I bet Maddon and other managers would tell you what pitcher they have closing games matters a LOT to them and feels like it determines the entire game. Whether Maddon is the manager then or not, I think both Epstein and Maddon are shooting for the same thing: winning the most games possible. With the way the Cubs have been in recent history, I would think they’d worry about winning games first and compensation/future value second. Winning puts a lot of money in the team’s pockets. I’m sure Maddon consults with Epstein on most, if not all, things, but I don’t think it’s crazy to guess that Maddon at least gets to control his own bullpen.
As a TB fan who has watched dozens of Maddon post-game conferences over the last few years, I guarantee you that Maddon is making the decisions about who pitches and when.
So here’s the mystery; why is Motte getting these chances now? Rondon hasn’t been bad. The one predictive feature is that Motte’s value increases the more saves he gets, while the other two start to lose value (due to increased arbitration awards in the future).
I don’t think Maddon is being bullied exactly; he has just had it laid out from the beginning.
The theory that Maddon is totally running the show has no predictive value, while the Epstein theory seems to explain the present situation. If you can predict what happens next based on “Maddon is boss”, I may be persuaded by your reasoning. To my mind, Maddon is boss means closer is “Rondon” or “committee”.
I think Maddon does have control of the bullpen and I even think the Rafael Soriano signing was because Maddon enjoyed the 45 saves Soriano gave him when they were with TB.
It was a “kicking the tires” type of signing to see if Soriano had anything left in the tank or if he figured out what caused his 2nd half meltdown last year.
Definitely lots of ifs but a low risk signing to see if they could get a veteran closer on the cheap.
@BMac: Hey, I’m not saying you’re wrong. I guess I’m just not totally convinced that it’s Epstein pulling the closer strings in this situation. Maddon did this exact same closer committee switch-it-up-for-no-reason thing in TB. Why is Motte getting save chances now? Because Maddon woke up yesterday and felt the breeze coming in from the north and it whispered Motte to him, haha. That’s a joke, but it might not be totally far off from the truth. Let’s not forget this nugget from last season:
https://twitter.com/CubsJoeMadd/status/484171652557582336
Yeah, I don’t think Maddon is getting bullied, but I think he has enough sway to decide who closes for him, at least. And his track record is messing around with who closes from his previous gig anyway. Unfortunately you’re right, if Maddon is running the show, then it’s anybody’s guess who will close on any given night. That’s not helpful for predictive purposes, but it might be the truth.
Any thoughts on who might fill in for Axford while he’s on the personal NA list? My guess is Hawkins.
Or maybe Betancourt/Kahnle.
Yeah, they would be the other, best candidates, I’m just guessing Hawkins might get the first shot, even though he’s not very good, cause he has previous closing experience and that whole schtick. Interestingly, it was Hawkins, Oberg, and Kahnle mentioned here:
http://www.denverpost.com/rockies/ci_28410764/john-axford-leaves-rockies-again-family-matters-colorado
and also here:
http://m.rockies.mlb.com/news/article/133898236/rockies-john-axford-on-family-emergency-list
None of the COL bullpen arms look very appealing.
Two 40 year olds on the verge of retirement and 2 young hard throwers with no control.
Still gonna Hawkins next in line only cuz he was the deposed closer before but I’d rather not have a ticking time bomb like him on my team.
I totally agree, but in those deep leagues where people are cutthroat for saves, I’ll take any I can get, haha. I’m sure I’m not the only one. Yeah, seems like Hawkins, I believe he already got a save opportunity.
Bet you all Strop gets the next save opp. Just for fun
Drop smith for Capps?
Smith has an easier shot at Saves if that matters to you. Ramos has been nearly as dominant as Capps so far, while Rodney figures to continue to be a ticking time bomb.
Capps I like a bit more than Smith if you just want a dominant SU man on your roster, just because of Capps dominant K rate.
smart Marlins move would be to deal Ramos and usurp Papelbon as premier closer target, also get a better return because no cash involved.
FYI, the Red Sox had Orgando go 2 innings last night with a 1 run lead, indicating that Tazawa wasn’t available for the second night in a row.
Now maybe Farrell was thinking ahead or maybe Tazawa is hurting as well…
Farrell: Good friend don’t let you start Tazawa against Blue Jays.